Every year, we at the TDG office identify Risers and Fallers from our consensus rankings. But how did we get here!? And what’s real and what’s noise? Well, the Gurus are here to help. In each “Risers and Fallers” article, the Gurus will take you on an explanatory journey as to why these players have seen a fortunate rise or an unfortunate turn toward their demise. Thanks for reading!

RISING: PORTER HODGE, CHICAGO CUBS (AGE: 24, CURRENT RANK: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: UNRANKED)

Relief Pitchers sure are inconsistent, amirite? Last year, another Cubs reliever, Adbert Alzolay was ready to take the reigns as the Cubs closer; Alzolay crashed and burned and wound up with Tommy John in August, and was DFA’d in November. This year it’s Porter Hodge starring in the next great Cubs reliever melodrama. Hodge earned nine saves in 2024 with a strikeout rate at 10.88 per nine innings in 43 total innings pitched with a 1.88 ERA. His xERA and FIB were both nearly a run higher, so regression may be coming. His walk rate was nearly four, and that will not do. The Cubs may have done him a slight favor by acquiring Ryan Pressly to close games and give Hodge some more time getting accumulated to the end of games; for our made-up game, the signing may have lowered the acquisition cost in Dynasty leagues.

RISING: RYAN WALKER, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (AGE: 29, CURRENT RANK: 10, PREVIOUS RANK: UNRANKED)

Walker had a killer season taking over for one of the fallers listed below (they rise and fall, and sometimes rise again, but often stay fallen), earning ten saves for a going-nowhere-fast Giants team. Walker’s 2024 stats are sparkling, 1.91 ERA, 11.14 strikeout rate and only 2.03 walk rate leading to a teeny tiny 0.85 WHIP. One could see this as a progression for the 2018 draftee, taken in the 31st round, pick 916 overall, and one would be hard-pressed not to like what they see. His statcast page is all red (red is good), and we’re looking at a top-10, and could easily be top-5, next year. To throw a bit of cool water on the fiery Walker, he didn’t post walk rates so low since 2021 at High-A; and his xERA and FIP were a bit more than half-a-run higher than his 2024 ERA.

FALLING: DAVID BEDNAR, PITTSBURGH PIRATES (AGE: 30, CURRENT RANK: 22, PREVIOUS RANK: 8)

The five-year vet had a terrible 2024, there’s no other way to look at it. Lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate of his career will do that to you (throwing out his six innings pitched during 2020 season). Bednar has looked better this Spring so far, and he’s still the Pirates closer. Bednar also is now in arbitration, so it would behoove the cheap Pirates to showcase him to eventually trade him. Good advice is to never take the lows (or the highs) as the norm, and it would seem, all things considered, that Bendar is a ripe bounce-back candidate, if you can stomach the risk.

FALLING: CAMILO DOVAL, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (AGE: 27, CURRENT RANK: 38, PREVIOUS RANK: 6)

Doval lost the Giants closer role to Walker in 2024 because he stunk up the joint, though he still earned 23 saves with an 11.9 strikeout rate. That was the good; walks are his biggest bugaboo,and an insanely high 5.95 walk rate is simply terrible, that’s why Doval even got sent down to the minors, and he sunk in our rankings. A 4.88 ERA summed up his 2024; though an xERA of 3.44 and FIP of 3.71 shows he might have been a bit unlucky. Doval has always had walk issues, hence myself avoiding him on my teams. Also now in salary arbitration territory, the Giants may feature him more in order to trade him. Either way, a solid add if available, he definitely has the stuff to rise.