Here at the TDG Headquarters, we’ve been busy looking for “The Next Big Thing.”  Just like you, we want to know who’s going to be the prospect that will become the core of our fantasy team, or be the trade piece that lands us the players who put us over the top. With that in mind, we’ve put together a team of prospect prognosticators and developed a set of tiered rankings for each position. And once they’re all posted, we’ll wrap up with our Top 200 Overall Prospects, putting it all together.

Be sure to listen to the Join the Ranks podcast for more discussion about these prospects.

Today, we bring you the pitcher prospects #1-50.

1-20

Mets top prospect Brandon Sproat rocketed through the minor leagues in his first season of pro ball, advancing through high-A, double-A, and finishing the year in Triple-A to finish the 2024 campaign. Sproat showcased his best stuff at Double-A, where he struck out 33.2% of batters while walking just 6.5%. While his numbers took a step back in his seven starts at triple-A to close out the year, that’s not uncommon for pitchers navigating the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) for the first time, and Sproat is absolutely on the short list of Mets arms waiting for an opening in Queens to showcase his skills in the big leagues.

Fellow NL-East pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver enters his second consecutive season seemingly on the cusp of cracking the Braves starting rotation for good. The questions around Smith-Shawver have always centered around whether or not he can keep his walk rate low enough to stick as a starter long-term. It’s important to remember that Smith-Shawver is just 22 years old, and not to get discouraged by the fact that he hasn’t found his home in the big leagues yet. Most 22-year-old pitchers are just finishing college, and it’s safe to say Smith-Shawver is ahead of that pack. I wouldn’t expect a major impact in 2025, but he is an arm to continue to watch, and maybe one to inquire about in your dynasty leagues.

Cade Horton was one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball heading into 2024, but it turned out to be a bit of a lost season as he managed just 34.1 innings after struggling with shoulder issues throughout the campaign. It’s amazing how much a prospect like Horton’s value can fall after one lost season, but he strikes me as a great pitcher to target now because if he’s fully healthy this spring, he’ll be back on the fast track to Chicago. (David Gofman)

While Noble Meyer received a lot of attention as the prize high school arm of the Marlins draft in 2023, it was Thomas White who shined in the lower minors in 2024. Now, White was regarded as the top lefty high school arm, so he certainly had his own share of prospect shine. White is a lefty with a huge frame at 6’5”, and after adding a few ticks on his fastball going into 2024 he sits now around 94-95 MPH. For those who care (I sure do), White reached 100 MPH on the fastball this spring in live BP, so there is reason to believe in a slight bit more projection for his velocity. He pairs this fastball with a strong slider and a changeup that is a work in progress. With an 11.25 K/9 and a 20% K-BB in 2024 across Low- and High-A at just 19 years old, White is one of my favorite pitching prospects right now. I personally find him very comparable to Travis Sykora, who we ranked as a collective at 9 going into 2025. (Joe Juliette)

21-40

Looking at the entire season, Caden Dana’s rocky 2024 MLB debut should have been anticipated. He almost precisely doubled his workload from ‘23 while at Double A alone, going from 68.1 IP to 135.2 innings. Then in classic Angels fashion, they jumped him straight to the bigs for another 10+ innings. Dana’s strike out numbers were down at Double A compared to ‘23 as well (31.7 % K-rate to 27.4%), though his BB-rate and other peripherals improved almost universally. This shows me that this future innings-eating, upside pitcher is building up his stamina and ready to succeed in the majors. Use his gassed, MLB numbers to help create a buying opportunity. 

Moisés Chace was developing nicely for the O’s as a strike-out arm with control issues. Then when he was moved at the trade deadline last year to Philly, he exploded to wrap up ‘24. Needing no time to settle into the new org, Chase struck out 45% of the batters he faced over the final 19+ innings. This firmly set him on the rocketship trajectory this off season and if you don’t roster him yet, his price is likely too high. Wait for some expected command issues, then check in with the other owner.

In the camp of “not my usual profile” sits Logan Henderson of the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s a fastball/changeup as his main arsenal, which typically doesn’t result in a lot of K’s at the major league level. It did though across 3 minor league levels, to the tune of a 28.1% K-BB% overall. Now Henderson’s knocking on the door of the Brewer’s rotation which boosts his value significantly in deeper leagues. Any development in his pitch selections could send his value skyrocketing. (Chris Knock)

Jonah Tong was quietly drafted in the 7th round of the 2022 draft (209 overall) as a 19-year-old out of Georgia Premier Academy. While the 20-year-old flashed strikeout stuff in complex ball and single-A in 2023, he walked more than one batter per inning, essentially disqualifying him from consideration for prospect lists. All of that changed in a big way as Tong added a slider to his arsenal going into the 2024 season and mastered the control issues that plagued him in 2023. Tong pitched across three levels in 2024, pitching to a combined 3.03 ERA and averaging a remarkable 34.2% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate that made Tong a breakout pitcher last year. He never really struggled last season, but there are still a number of arms ahead of him in the pecking order to get to Queens. That being said, Tong’s strikeout rates and slightly above average walk rates for a starter leave open the possibility that he could be used as a reliever out of the pen down the stretch in 2025 before competing for a rotation spot heading into 2026.

There isn’t a lot to get excited about with the Chicago White Sox these days, but Sean Burke was a rare bright spot in his 19 innings in the big leagues to close out the 2024 season. Burke is a 6’6” righty who saw his walk rate decrease from 13% in triple-A to 9.2% in his short stint in the majors, leading to optimism in Chicago that he could carve a spot for himself in the rotation in 2025. It should be noted that triple-A is the only level currently using the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) full-time, which can lead to pitchers having elevated walk rates there as they adjust. Burke also struck out an impressive 28.9% of hitters in the majors in 2024, which would be a major value add if he can come close to that total as he settles in at the big league level.

Jaden Hamm is another arm that popped up in 2024, as the 22-year-old righty joined a growing list of pitching success stories from the Tigers system. Hamm had, simply put, an exceptional season at high-A in 2024. Hamm pitched a total of 99 innings, and showcased starter-caliber control walking just 7.8% of batters. It remains to be seen how Hamm’s fastball/curveball combination will hold up as he moves up through the minors, but his body of work thus far absolutely makes him an arm to watch heading into 2025. (David Gofman)

Gary Gill Hill was a 6th round pick by the Rays out of high school in 2022. He’s an athletic right-hander with fluid mechanics. Gill Hill is the type of pitcher that I like to bet on. He is a wiry 20-year-old right now with room to put on good weight and add some ticks to his current low-mid 90’s fastball. He’s athletic enough to repeat his delivery, which can lead to improvements in command. He nearly halved his walk-rates from 2023 to 2024. The other positive is that he is in an organization that knows how to develop pitchers. Gill Hill is one pitcher to monitor in 2025 for another bump in velocity and stuff. A big breakout could be coming. (Brandon Ring)

I liked Brody Brecht coming into the draft, but I didn’t like him so much coming out. He’s a big-armed right-hander out of the University of Iowa. The Rockies selected him 38th overall, which ticks him down a bit in my mind. In our 51-100 overall pitching rankings, I wrote a short comment on Chase Dollander that he is not a pitching profile that they have tried in Coors very often, if ever. Brecht is in the same mold as Dollander, though with significant control issues. Where Dollander has moved rapidly through the Rockies system, Brecht likely will not. Brecht needs to make a LOT of progress with his command, as he walked 5.6 batters per 9 innings in his final season at Iowa. Due to this, I think he has a high likelihood of ending up in the bullpen. (Brandon Ring)

A major target of mine going into FYPD season has been Ryan Sloan. It is one-half excitement for Sloan’s profile and another half excitement that the Mariners were the team to pick him. Sloan is built to be a starter, coming out of high school with an impressive frame at 6’5” and 220 lbs. He has shown an advanced three pitch mix including a plus fastball, changeup, and slider. Put him in one of the best organizations for pitching prospects with one of the best fields for pitchers, and there is major upside here. While prep arms are scary business, Sloan’s already advanced arsenal and terrific organizational fit give him a higher floor than most. 

The other top prep arm in 2024’s draft was Cam Caminiti, who similarly found himself going to a terrific organization for pitching development in Atlanta. It is unfortunate his first name is not Spencer, because then I would really be getting excited. But hopefully Atlanta can work their magic with Caminiti, who is a lefty with a developing four pitch mix. It will be interesting to see how Atlanta treats Caminiti in 2024. While he did already see game action in 2024, it was just 3 innings, so it is difficult to say whether they will rush him through the minors like they have had success doing, or slow play Caminiti. Schwellenbach and Strider don’t serve as particularly great examples, having come from college. Instead I turn to Smith-Shawver, who the Braves moved all the way from High-A to the MLB in his 2nd full season. If that holds up, expect Caminiti to spend much of the year in Low-A, and if all goes right in 2026, he may find himself on the good-ole Atlanta fast-track and be a contributor earlier than expected for your average HS arm. (Joe Juliette)

41-50

I promise, I’m not changing my M.O. with pitching prospects, but Thomas Harrington is another fastball/change profile worth mentioning. And again, proximity is a big reason why. Harrington actually has two fastballs with his change, (4S and cutter) and he controls all three very well. He may not have huge strike out upside, but other successes Pittsburgh has had in pitching development could translate to a boost in value with Harrington. He just has to squeeze his way into a crowded major league situation. 

Luis Perales is a name I’d be trying to acquire in deeper leagues in another month or two. He had TJS last June and as other names start popping, I think he’ll be a prime ‘out of sight, out of mind’ target. There is bullpen risk as his command wavers enough, but there’s also front-end of the rotation upside. Upper 30’s K-rates at almost every MiLB stop so far come from 4 pitches that all flash above average to plus-plus. If you like to shop bargain lotto tickets, Perales may be your PowerBall. (Chris Knock)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are not so quietly becoming a pitching factory, with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones bursting onto the scene in 2024, and Bubba Chandler coming into 2025 as one of the top three pitching prospects in all of baseball. Could they really have two MORE pitchers in our top 50 prospects? Yes, yes they could. Thomas Harrington split the 2024 season between double-A and triple-A and excelled at both levels. If Chandler wasn’t in the organization, I really think we would be talking about Harrington knocking on the door early in 2025. He’s got three plus pitches in his low-mid 90’s fastball, his change up, and his slider, and he absolutely seems primed to slot in as a very strong #3 for the Pirates long-term.

Braxton Ashcraft also split time between double-A and triple-A in 2024, but injuries limited him to just 73 innings. That has unfortunately been the story for much of Ashcraft’s career so far as he suffered a non-throwing shoulder dislocation in 2019, and had Tommy John surgery in 2021. The 25 year old absolutely has the stuff to stick in the majors, with a mid-high 90’s fastball and a strong slider to go along with a curveball and change up, and it’s no exaggeration to say that the Pirates could have the best rotation in all of baseball in 2026, if Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft are all healthy.

George Klassen was another pitcher that shot up rankings lists as the 2024 season moved forward, and the 23-year-old gained some extra notoriety when he was dealt by the Philadelphia Phillies at the trade deadline for closer Carlos Estevez. It remains to be seen if the Angels can pick up where the Phillies left off with Klassen’s development, as the 6’2” righty was showing notable control improvements at high-A before being dealt to Los Angeles, before seeing his walk rate balloon to 17.3% in double-A with the Angels. It remains to be seen if Klassen can master enough control of his three plus pitches to stick as a starter, but he is an arm that the Angels are definitely excited about, and for good reason. (David Gofman)

Yilber Diaz is a hard throwing starter. In a small Major League sample he sat in the mid-upper 90’s, though Stuff+ models hated his fastball. The models preferred his offspeed pitches by a wide margin, rating them all as above average. His location leaves a lot to be desired as well. Diaz was not hit very hard and he outperformed his FIP by a full run. On top of that, he outperformed his PitchingBot and Stuff+ by an even larger margin. Diaz’s outlook might not be as dire as it sounds. He threw his fastball almost 60% of the time. I would watch for a decreased usage of his fastball and a higher changeup frequency as an indicator as a possible breakout. Assuming those changes come with statistical improvements. (Brandon Ring)