Now its time for the dynasty starting pitchers 51 – 100!

#51 – #60

Rank	Player	Average
51	Ryan Pepiot	51
52	Carlos Rodón	51.9
53	Shane Baz	52.1
54	Taj Bradley	53.9
55	Kumar Rocker	58
56	Reynaldo López	58
57	Spencer Arrighetti	58.7
58	Gavin Williams	60.6
59	Kevin Gausman	62.7
60	Sonny Gray	65

Ryan Pepiot took his first opportunity for a starting role in Tampa Bay in 2024 and ran with it.  Pepiot uses an effective 4-seam fastball that has average velocity but above average rise and tail. He used it to strike out 142 batters in 130 innings pitched. Tropicana Field was wrecked and rendered unplayable for the 2025 season, and I have concerns about Rays’ pitchers in general. The Trop was an excellent pitching park, and they are now moving to the Yankees Triple-A facility. That field has similar dimensions to Yankee Stadium, which are much cozier. On top of that, the weather will be warmer and more humid, which will contribute to baseballs flying farther. Pepiot ticks all the boxes I’m looking for in a fantasy starting pitcher: Solid ERAs and WHIPs, and more than a strikeout per inning. I think his innings increase so that he is in position to be eligible for more wins and quality starts.

At this point we know what Carlos Rodón is: He will strike out a bunch of batters and when healthy he’s allowed to go deep into games. He also posts ERA’s and WHIP’s that keep him from being a top end fantasy starting pitcher. Rodón is also entering his age 32 season, so his stuff may start declining soon. When that happens, it will take his strikeout rate with it. For now, I expect Rodón to be a useful second or third starter for fantasy teams.

Shane Baz is the second young Rays starter in this range. Baz returned from Tommy John surgery in 2024 to post a 3.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts in 79 innings. He faces the same stadium change that Pepiot does. Baz averages 95.6 miles per hour on his fastball, but it is not highly regarded by Stuff+. Stuff+ prefers Baz’s curveball and slider to his fastball. I hesitate to draw too many conclusions from his 2024 data. He was working back from surgery, and prior to 2024 he had made only 9 career starts and threw 40 innings. Baz has a big arm, and it will be interesting to see what he can do after a healthy offseason in 2025.

Taj Bradley is yet another Rays pitcher in this range. He is the youngest of the group at 23 and is rated by Stuff+ as having the highest quality pitches of the three. Bradley throws a fairly straight 96 mile per hour fastball that has better than average rise. He pairs it with a cutter and a splitter, both averaging 91 mph as a mild change of pace. His location is a problem though, and he gives up a lot of hard contact. If Bradley takes a step forward with his command and maybe adds another offspeed pitch to vary hitters’ timing more, he can be a dominating pitcher. At his age I think these improvements are reasonable. He can leap up the rankings next year.

Kumar Rocker dominated opponents at Vanderbilt in 2021 and was drafted by the New York Mets 10^th overall. They had issues with his physical and declined to offer Rocker a contract. The Rangers drafted him 3^rd overall in 2022 after Rocker made 5 starts in the independent Frontier League. Rocker has not been very healthy since that time. He seemed to get on track, and after only 15 starts in the Minor Leagues across three levels he made his Major League Debut. It’s difficult to glean anything from his minor league numbers or his 11 MLB innings, but the command questions that were asked in his draft year have not appeared. He’s walked a full runner less per 9 innings as a professional than in college, and his stuff is as electric as ever. He has excellent velocity and elite extension from a big frame. When batters make contact off Rocker, they hit it softly and on the ground. This is an ace starter kit. The next step is for Rocker to stay healthy.

Reynaldo López had pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen since 2020 before the Braves put him in their rotation in 2024. He wasn’t new to starting, as the Chicago White Sox had him in the rotation with poor results from 2016-2020. I have no idea what the Braves saw in López to convert him back into a starter, but it worked spectacularly. He posted a 1.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and struck out 148 batters in 135 innings. He missed time with elbow and shoulder pain after the All-Star Break which limited his total innings. López’s ranking reflects his age (he’ll be 31) and the likelihood that he comes back to earth in 2025. Stuff+ does not like his arsenal much, and his pitch mix didn’t vary from his time as a reliever. It’s a straight 95 mph fastball, a short slider with good drop, and a slower curveball most of the time.  The sum of his pitch mix seems to be better than the individual parts, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a repeat of his 2024 season. Even a step down is still very acceptable though.

Spencer Arrighetti is among the Houston Astros starters who made midseason adjustments and found success. His first half was a disaster, with a 5.53 ERA and 1.6 WHIP and allowing an OPS+ of 127 to opposing batters. After July Arrighetti was significantly better, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He lowered his walk rate from 12% to 8% while raising his strikeout rate from 24.5% to 28.5%. After digging through Statcast rolling charts, the only significant adjustment I can find is he dropped his release point a couple of inches. It did not seem to affect the movement on Arrighetti’s pitches, but he seemed to gain some command based on the drop in his walk rate. He seems locked into a rotation spot this year in Houston. If Arrighetti can replicate his second half success, he can provide excellent value.

2024 was a lost season for Gavin Williams. He experienced elbow discomfort during his offseason workouts and never got on track. He suffered a couple setbacks despite no structural problems being reported. When Williams did pitch in the 2^nd half he wasn’t effective. He was better in 2023, but Stuff+ does not love his arsenal. Williams does feature a 99^th percentile extension of 7.5 feet out of a 6’6” frame and he has better than average fastball velocity and movement. I think he still has potential to be an above average starting pitcher, but Williams needs to be healthy to prove it.

Father Time might finally be coming for Kevin Gausman. He will be entering his age-34 season in 2025. Gausman has been a durable starter. Excluding the shortened 2020 Covid season, he has only had one season where he pitched under 170 innings since 2016. However, his average fastball velocity dipped in 2024, and his strikeout rate went with it. Batters hit fewer ground balls and more flyballs in 2024, and they hit them harder on average than any other year in Gausman’s career. He projects to be a decent starting pitcher option in 2025, but unless his strikeouts bounce back, I think he now lands in the “decent fantasy depth” tier now.

Sonny Gray, on the other hand, continues to defy time. He has been a durable and effective starter for a long time. His FIP was an excellent 3.12 and he struck out 11 batters per 9 innings. Stuff+ doesn’t grade any of his individual pitches highly outside of his slider, but he locates well. He uses four of his six-pitches at a nearly 20% clip to keep batters off balance. Unlike Gausman, Gray does not seem to be slowing down quite yet, despite being a year older. I believe Gray can continue to be an above-average starting pitcher in 2025.

(Brandon Ring)

#61 – #70

Rank	Player	Average
61	Chase Burns	65.4
62	Hagen Smith	65.4
63	Tanner Houck	65.9
64	Brandon Pfaadt	66.3
65	Chase Dollander	66.3
66	Nick Lodolo	68.7
67	MacKenzie Gore	70.6
68	Cristopher Sánchez	70.7
69	Robbie Ray	72.6
70	Yusei Kikuchi	74.1

Chase Burns was selected 2^nd overall in the 2024 draft out of Wake Forest. He transferred from the University of Tennessee to spend a year in Wake’s famed pitching lab. Burns is a right-handed pitcher with top of the line velocity and a sharp breaking ball. He ended up with a terrific stat line, posting a 2.70 ERA, walking only 2.7 batters per 9 innings, and striking out a whopping 17 batters per 9 innings. Anecdotally from watching several of Burns’s starts on TV, I can’t recall his using any pitches aside from his upper-90s fastball and power slider. Honestly, he didn’t really need anything else as you can see from the stats. He is probably going to need to find a serviceable 3^rd pitch but two great pitches are a terrific foundation.

In my mind Burns and our next pitcher in the rankings are forever linked. Hagen Smith was another college pitcher taken in the top-10 of the 2024 draft, taken three picks after Burns by the Chicago White Sox. Another similarity to Burns is that Smith also features a mid-upper 90’s fastball and sharp slider, though it’s from the left side. Finally, he also needs to find an effective 3^rd pitch to complement his power arsenal. Smith and Burns both should be on a fast track to the Majors. Both dominated the SEC, which is a high level of competition to face as an amateur. The lower minors shouldn’t challenge either one.

Tanner Houck is a solid starter, but his lack of strikeouts caps his value. He relies on elite ground ball rates to get batters out. Houck improved his control last season, trimming 3% off his 9% walk rate in 2023. This was down from Houck doesn’t miss many bats in the zone, with hitters missing only 12.6% of the time. He is locked into a starting role if healthy, and projections all seem to project a repeat of his 2024 season this year.

For a pitcher with a career 5.06 ERA and 1.3 WHIP it’s hard to imagine a scenario where his rotation spot is set. Particularly a rotation as deep as the Arizona Diamondbacks. Brandon Pfaadt seems to be set to start as their number five starter this year. He threw 181 innings last season and struck out more than a batter per inning. Pfaadt gives up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the bottom 10% of the league in batter max exit velocity. Projection systems love him considering his career to date. There certainly could be something in his underlying numbers I’m missing in this shallow dive I’m doing on Pfaadt. I do like the innings and strikeout rate, but those same innings could wreck a roster’s ERA and WHIP numbers.

Chase Dollander is looking to buck the trend of Rockies starting pitchers being unusable in fantasy formats. I think I can count on one hand how many I’ve rostered over the past 20 years. If he were in any other franchise, we are talking about an elite pitching prospect. Dollander has a unique profile in regard to the normal Rockies philosophy. He has bat-missing stuff, where they seem to prioritize sinkers and ground balls. He has an upper-90’s fastball that he can use in Coors Field, and sharp breaking pitches that he can use on the road. Dollander should see the Major Leagues before the All-Star break in 2025, if not much sooner.

It is a shame that Nick Lodolo can’t stay healthy. He has made 19, 7, and 21 starts in his three Major League seasons and has never thrown more than 115 innings. The shame is that he has the stuff to be an excellent starting pitcher. He has four pitches that he throws with above average velocity and movement for a left-hander. Lodolo generates ground balls and keeps his walks at an acceptable level. If he is healthy, I would expect his 2025 season to resemble what the next guy did in 2024.

Mackenzie Gore is the next guy up. Gore runs a 9% walk rate, but otherwise his numbers are good. He pitches with excellent velocity from the left side, though his movement profile is not as good as Lodolo’s. Gore struck out 181 batters in 166 innings last year, making 32 starts. He also does a good job of limiting hard contact with an 88 mile per hour average exit velocity, which is easily above average. If Gore can cut his walks I expect a breakout season from him.

Cristopher Sánchez is the pitcher all finesse left-handers hope to be. He doesn’t walk batters, doesn’t get much hard contact, and he can get batters to chase. Sánchez doesn’t strike many hitters out, but thanks to his elite changeup he is still highly effective. Like Houck, Sánchez’s fantasy value is capped by his low strikeout rate, but Sánchez can help in every other way. He will be a big part of the Phillies rotation in 2025.

What is it with all the lefthanders in this group? Nearly everything I just said about Gore and Lodolo apply to Robbie Ray as well. He’s older (33 years old) but has similar strikeout and walk rates to both. Ray sounds healthy heading into 2025 and finds himself in a nice pitching park with a good defense behind him. I expect a nice bounce back year and presents good value where he’s currently being drafted in redrafts and might be an excellent cheap trade target in your dynasty leagues for a win-now roster.

I really should have just lumped all these guys together. The Angels signed Yusei Kikuchi this offseason. He is yet another hard throwing left-handed starting pitcher with questionable control at times and very good strikeout rates. Unlike the others, Kikuchi does not generate many ground balls and does get a lot of hard contact. Despite this, his last two seasons have been very solid. Despite low grades for pitch movement by Statcast, Stuff+ loves him. Kikuchi seemed to figure something out in 2023 and he repeated his improved performance last year. I don’t see a reason why he can’t do it again. Like Ray, I think he is an undervalued pitcher who could be relatively cheap to acquire for a win-now dynasty team.

(Brandon Ring)

#71 – #80

Rank	Player	Average
71	Travis Sykora	77.7
72	Jesús Luzardo	78
73	Quinn Mathews	79.1
74	Brandon Sproat	79.9
75	Zach Eflin	80.7
76	Nick Pivetta	92.7
77	Bowden Francis	102
78	Walker Buehler	81.1
79	Seth Lugo	84.9
80	Clarke Schmidt	86.5

A great Minor League debut season, 6’6″ 235 pound Travis Sykora is on track to have an exciting MLB career. Drafted in 2023, Sykora is the Nationals’ #2 prospect. Sykora’s pitch control and large frame allowed him to reach 101 MPH, helping him to destroy the strike zone. Sykora’s punched out 129 batters over 85 innings at Single-A affiliate Fredericksburg Nationals. Giving up two home runs in the first half, Sykora dominated the second half. Sykora’s 10.8 K/BB rate is an impressive way to start your career. His 3.74% home run per fly ball shows his ability to create weak contact. Sykora will be out until at least May due to a hip injury. This injury keeps him out of the news and creates an opportunity to obtain Sykora on a deal.

Jesús Luzardo has been on fantasy radars since his late-season debut with Oakland in 2019. Injuries in 2021 and 2022, Luzardo showed that the hype was real, punching out 208 batters over 178.2 innings with the Miami Marlins. Luzardo would then deal with injury again in 2024, landing on the 15-day IL with tightness in his left elbow and ultimately ending up on the 60-day IL with a lumbar stress reaction, costing him the rest of the season.

Luzardo commands a whiff rate of 48.0% on his slider and 40.7% on his changeup but suffers from an above-average fly-ball rate, 40.2% in 2024, 43.8% pull percentage with the tendency to give up some hard hits, a 41.1% hard-hit rate. Luzardo has the stuff to be a formidable fantasy pitcher. After signing with the Phillies, the only thing holding Luzardo back is health. Luzardo reports feeling 100% back to health, and the Phillies show no concerns with his past health. Now may be the time to acquire a few shares of Luzardo at a sub-300 overall dynasty cost.

Quinn Mathews has seemed to be in the news forever, and his 202 strike-outs during his minor league play in 2024 had him there again. A four-year college athlete, Matthew moved quickly through the minor league system, starting in Single-A for Palm Beach and ending in Memphis with the Triple-A organization. 143.1 innings over those four levels is all it took to achieve his 202 K’s while putting up a 2.78 ERA and a 0.977 WHIP. Mathews also induced plenty of ground balls, finishing with 142 ground balls compared to 98 fly balls. Minor league Statcast information can be subject, but Mathews allowed a modest 86.8 MPH exit velocity during his time at Triple-A.

Mathews has shown occasional struggles with control, which is typical with taller pitchers. Look for Mathews’s value to continue to rise as the Cardinals push him toward the majors. If you are flush with pitching, you may consider selling high on Mathews, making him a great sweetener to a bigger deal.

Like Mathews, Brandon Sproat was pushed quickly through the minor leagues, settling in Triple-A during his first season in the Mets organization. Unlike Mathews, Sproat struggled at Triple-A over his seven games. Collectively, Sproat struck out 131 batters over 106.1 innings.

Sproat can touch 100 MPH with his fastball. Sproat also throws a sweeping slider, change-up, and curveball, giving him the tools to lock in as a future rotation arm for the Mets. Sproat was able to keep walks at a respective 9.1% walk rate for the 2024 minor league season but tended to leave pitches hanging from time to time, contributing to Sproat’s struggles at Triple-A. Another pitcher who could be carrying a ton of buzz, Sproat is a pitcher to hold onto and lean on in years to come.  

Nick Pivetta has been a stable arm in the Red Sox rotation for the past four seasons. Pivetta has averaged 155 innings per season with 176 strikeouts. Pivetta lowered his WHIP in 2024 to an impressive 1.126 per nine, but now with the Padres, his 48.3% fly ball percentage carries to Petco Park, and we will see an increase in homerun per fly ball and ultimately a spike in ERA and FIP. Overall, Fenway Park scores better than Petco Park in park factors for 2024. Expected home runs in each ballpark would have been 20 in Boston compared to 29 in San Diego.

Pivetta is perfect for a lower-cost option for strikeouts, and if he can keep the hits and walks down like the past two seasons in Boston, he should be able to provide value in a better ballpark situation on the West Coast.

Zach Eflin’s 2023 season with Tampa Bay pushed him up the rankings. Totaling 16 wins and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, Eflin finished 6th in Cy Young votes for the American League. In 2025, Eflin appears to be SP 1 for the Baltimore Orioles. With a small sample, Eflin looks to have flourished with the move to Baltimore. After being acquired by Baltimore in July, Eflin secured five wins over nine games while posting a 2.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 3.77 FIP.

Look for Eflin to continue as a fine starting pitcher who is not a boom or bust. Playing in Baltimore may add a few wins to his totals, and the SP 1 innings will help tally up strikeouts, even with his lower-than-average strikeouts per nine.

Late to the show, Bowden Francis has put together a productive small sample size, but is it real? Francis keeps his walk rate down using a combination of a four-seam, split-finger, curveball, and slider, with the occasional sinker. Struggling in his bullpen role, Francis shined in August and September after transitioning to the starting rotation. Currently listed as the fifth starter according to Roster Resource, the Blue Jays hope to have a repeat second-half performance from Francis, but how many starts Francis receives is in the air.

The last time Francis exceeded 100 innings in a season was 2021, so it’s likely that the Blue Jays will manage his innings. He also saw a dip in pitch speeds and spin rates from April through September. The decrease is more of a necessity to avoid injury than a precursor to injury. The Blue Jays will need pitching help with the aging Gausman, Bassitt, and Scherzer, but analysis of Statcast numbers suggests he may be an average MLB pitcher.

The Red Sox have put their trust in Walker Buehler – should you? Losing his entire 2023 season to his second Tommy John Surgery, Buehler returned to the Dodgers rotation in May 2024. Buehler’s return to action was consistent with his return to action in 2020, showing obvious signs of rust. After a rocky June and July, Buehler settled back in during August and September, providing a view of his new norm.

Buehler posted career highs in home runs per nine (1.91), WHIP (5.38), ERA, and walks per nine (3.35) during 2024. Statcast also shows a steady decline in K%, BB%, and Fastball since his recovery from his first surgery. Buehler has also lost around 2-MPH off his fastballs and 3-MPH off his breaking pitches. His command issues and a loss of velocity tell the tale of his terrible 2024 campaign. I look for him to improve on his 2024 numbers but do not anticipate a return to his early career seasons.

Seth Lugo started his career in New York as a starter but later moved into the bullpen. Lugo signed with San Diego in 2023 and declined their offer to stay on the West Coast, only to come to a three-year agreement with the Kansas City Royals. Lugo started 33 games in 2024, winning 16 games while making his first All-Star team and finishing second to Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young voting.

During Lugo’s age 34 season, he added a cutter to his arsenal and commanded it well, keeping walk rates low and limiting batter to weak fly balls. Lugo finished third in MLB for homerun to flyball rate at .104; only Logan Webb and Chris Sale were better in 2024. Lugo lost about one mile per hour off his fastball and sinker each of his last two seasons, so we should monitor his pitch velocities in 2025. Lugo’s control will continue to keep him a decent option, but his age and dropping pitch velocity suggest his better days are behind him.

Coming off a solid 2023 campaign, Clarke Schmidt started 2024 with ace-like numbers before missing the better part of the season with a right lat strain. Injury is no stranger to Schmidt, limiting the possibility of being considered an ace on your roster. Before his injury in 2024, Schmidt pitched phenomenally in May with a 3-2 record through five games with a 1.85 ERA, 0.876 WHIP, and 33:7 strikeouts to walks.

One noted change was Schmidt’s arm slot. From 44 degrees in 2022, Schmidt now delivers from a 35-degree arm slot. The arm slot change is part of adding the sweeper to his arsenal. Schmidt has increased ground-level movement in this pitch from 8.4 inches in 2022 to 12.4 inches in 2024. Schmidt’s curveball has also seen a change of 1.2 inches of movement over this same stretch. At 29 years old, Schmidt’s upside is worth investing in, but even with his injury history, you may not receive a discount given the Yankee tax that will be applied.

(Donovan Miller)

#81 – #90

Rank	Player	Average
81	Brayan Bello	87.1
82	Shane Bieber	88.1
83	Sean Manaea	88.4
84	Mitch Keller	89.9
85	Bobby Miller	92.3
86	Alejandro Rosario	92.6
87	Jeffrey Springs	94
88	DJ Herz	94.1
89	Nathan Eovaldi	95.1
90	Ranger Suárez	95.6

There’s a temptation to look at Brayan Bello’s minor league numbers, including k-rates over 30% and expect him to finish adjusting to the majors and post those numbers at the major league level. After two years with batting averages against of .267 (2023) and .250 (2024) resulting in high WHIP in spite of decent BB-rates, I think we are seeing what he will continue to be at this level. He’ll continue to pitch a lot of innings with just under one strikeout per inning, ERA around 4.0 and WHIP of 1.30, not a bad major league pitcher but don’t set your expectations much higher than that.

Shane Bieber is coming off of Tommy John surgery and should join the rotation mid season. The second half will be an audition for free agency if he opts out of year two of his contract. His two starts prior to the injury in 2024 were excellent and showed what we can expect when he’s at his best, strikeouts and ground balls as a result of excellent location more than from blowing hitters away. If he comes back strong, he’ll move a couple of tiers up this list.

There’s good news and there’s bad news about Sean Manaea.  The good news is that he had a very good last year, pitching 181 innings (16th highest in the majors) with just over one strikeout per inning.  The bad news is that he’s already on the IL with an oblique strain. You can expect an extended absence because that will have to be fully healed before he can begin to ramp up. At 33-years-old, how much can fantasy managers invest in him now?

Mitch Keller has had some good stretches over his career, notable in early 2023, but overall he’s been painfully average. Only twice in his career, 2019 and 2023, has he averaged more than one strikeout per nine innings. He does have a nice slider and with the young Pirate pitchers at the top of the rotation, Keller should settle in nicely as SP3 or SP4.

Bobby Miller is currently in the concussion protocol, and if you have not seen the video, don’t, it’s quite scary. Early reports are that he’ll be back soon, which is amazing. As far as pitching, he hasn’t shown his potential at the major league level yet. You know who did like his pitching in the majors? The hitters did (.305 batting average against Miller’s pitching). My optimism for him lies in the fact that his Stuff+ grade for all his pitches are above average. When (if?) he refines his control, he’ll be an effective major league pitcher, but it will take an injury or two for the Dodgers to have room for him this year.  That said, I’ll wait…

Last year, about the time of his promotion to Double-A Frisco, Alejandro Rosario’s name was being bandied about in fantasy circles as the pitcher to roster while you still can. There was good reason for that as he was putting a 13.14 K/9, 36.9 K% and 3.7 BB%.  I don’t feel bad for not getting him in FYPD the year before, after all, he was just a 5th round choice out of the University of Miami. I was fortunate enough to roster him a couple places last year and will be content to hold him while he rehabs from elbow surgery.

Jeffrey Springs had a nice breakout in 2022, but it’s important to note that was the only year he’s pitched over 65 innings since 2018. He’s a fly ball pitcher with decent strikeout rates and walk rates around 7.5%. He’s had a wide variety of results over his career and I’d expect that to continue. Between his health and performance track record he’s pretty risky for this ties.

DJ Herz will be an interesting pitcher to keep an eye on for a couple of reasons. He made a positive impression as a rookie last year, pitching well for 128 innings between the minors and majors.  That was the first time in his professional career that he has exceeded 100 innings and it’s possible the Nationals will be monitoring that closely as the year goes on. The other thing to watch is his walk rate. His 9.4% B rate in the majors last year was actually the lowest of his career, and if he can keep bringing it down, he won’t do as much harm to a fantasy team’s ERA and WHIP.

Nathan Eovaldi is the pitcher in this tier that I have rostered on multiple teams. At 34 years old he’s starting to age out for dynasty rankings, but will be a valuable player for teams in a win-now mode. He’s posted very low walk rates, under 5% in 2020 through 2022 with Boston, a bit higher but still low with Texas the past two years, but in fact his WHIP has been the lowest of his career the past two years, 1.14 and 1.11. Even though he’s walking a few more hitters, his batting average against has dropped from .262 in 2022 to .223 and .227 the past two years. He’s not an ace, but I’m guessing that a lot of fantasy league winners have Eovaldi on their rosters.

Ranger Suárez, who became full-time starter in 2021, quietly had his best year last year. He lowered his walk rate from 9% to 6.5%, increased his  K rate slightly from 22% to 23.2%, batting average against him lowered from .263 to .241, and he posted a WHIP of 1.20. He relies heavily on his location and has a ground ball rate over 50%. Going forward, I’d project 150+IP, 140K, 3.50 ERA, 1.20-1.25 WHIP for the next three years, that’ll play.  He’s probably under-ranked here, look for him to move up these rankings.

(Drew Klein)

#91 – #100

Rank	Player	Average
91	Brandon Woodruff	96.3
92	Kyle Harrison	96.7
93	Jarlin Susana	101.4
94	Kutter Crawford	102.1
95	Ronel Blanco	103.6
96	Jacob Misiorowski	105
97	Zebby Matthews	105
98	AJ Smith-Shawver	105.3
99	David Festa	105.9
100	Thomas White	105.9

In case you’ve forgotten how good Brandon Woodruff was before his injury, beginning in 2020 he posted WHIPs of 0.99, 0.96, 1.07,and  0.82. How do you spell Elite? He missed a full season with injury, and is likely to start this season on rehab assignment. Still, for a dynasty outlook, he’s only 33-years-old and early reports on his progress from spring training have been positive. Naturally there’s some risk, but there’s also potential for very high reward.

Kyle Harrison had an up and down journey through the prospect ranks. In our rankings, in 2022 he was our 100th ranked prospect, in 2023 he was 6th ranked pitching prospect and 29th overall prospect, then in 2024 slipped down to 8th pitching prospect and 29th overall prospect. Now he’s graduated from prospect status and at this rank he’s ahead of the 12th ranked pitching prospect. Why has he been going in the wrong direction? Just like real estate, it’s location, location, location. After his 2023 season, one of the hosts of Join the Ranks compared him to Ricky Vaughn, but now I must point out that last year he brought his walk rate down to 8% while pitching in the major leagues. He’s only 23 years old and although he’s not going to be all that we thought he’d be, he is still developing and the San Francisco coaches have a good track record getting the most out of pitchers.

Jarlin Susana is our 12th ranked pitching prospect. He has an electric fastball and slider that are in search of command. His K rates over 30% are eye catching but the walk rates of 11% are off-putting. I love the potential but he’ll need to reign in the control as he matures.

Kutter Crawford pitched last year with soreness in his patellar tendon that will delay his debut this year. While pitching through pain last year, he still threw 183 innings, with 175 strike outs and a 1.12 WHIP. It remains to be seen how much the injury will curtail him this year.  When healthy, his profile reminds me of Logan Webb which is not a bad thing.

What a story Ronel Blanco is. He was signed by the Astros out of the Dominican Republic at the age of 22. In case you’re thinking that only international hitters are signed as teenagers, Luis Gil was signed at 17 and Sandy Alcantara was signed at 18. It then took Blanco six years to make his major league debut with six innings as a reliever in 2022. He played in the majors in 2023 as a reliever and spot starter with a 4.50 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.  Then seemingly out of the blue, he threw 167 innings in 29 starts, with a 1.09 WHIP, 24% K rate and 10% BB rate. The secret of this success appears to be the same as Yusei Kikuchi’s after he was traded to Houston, someone told Blanco to throw his best pitch more often and his worst pitch less often. In Blanco’s case, that meant dropping his slider usage from 48% to 30% and throwing his curve and changeup more often. It’s reasonable to expect performance on par with his 2024 output for the foreseeable future.

Jacob Misiorowski could be ranked much higher and considered a top pitching prospect, but lack of control is holding him back. He posts K rates over 30%, but that’s accompanied by BB% over 14%. His batting average against borders on elite, consistently under .200 throughout his career, but the control brings considerable reliever risk to his profile.

Former JTR30 member Zebby Matthews (props to Chris Knock) was called up last year and is twelve innings away from graduating from prospect ranks. He cruised through three levels of the minor leagues last year, posting a 30.5% K rate and 1.9% BB rate. Not a typo. There were some adjustment issues after his promotion as his K rate dropped to 24/3% and BB rate rose to 6.2%.  Both numbers are respectable and there’s no reason to panic.  The big difference is that major league hitters weren’t chasing pitches out of the zone and had higher contact rates when they did. Matthews has above average slider and curve and, obviously, above average command. After a taste of the majors, look for him to improve on his MLB performance and develop into a solid SP3 and fantasy player in general.

In 2021, at the age of 18, AJ Smith-Shawver was drafted out of high school. The following year he did well at Single-A Augusta but was not necessarily dominant, with a great K-rate of 34%, but that was balanced by a  BB rate of 13%. and a 1.35 WHIP. Then, in 2023, after just 14 innings at High-A Rome (check out the Rome Emperors logo btw), he was promoted to Double-A Columbus where he pitched 7 innings before a promotion to Triple-A Gwinnett. Then, still in 2023, after 41 innings pitched for Columbus, the 20-year-old was called up to Atlanta. Hey Atlanta, rush much? It’s a good thing that he spent virtually all of 2024 back in Triple-A. The talent is there, I had him ranked at 82, and I’m afraid that I’ll look back at that ranking in a couple of years and it will have been too low.

After David Festa was called up in July last year, he gave up twelve runs over ten innings in his first two starts.  After that, he pitched 54 innings with 69 strike outs, 22 walks, a 3.81ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP.  As he pitched his way up through the minor leagues, his walk rates were not elite but his K-rates were good.

There is plenty of well-deserved hype around Thomas White. The Marlins prospect has a good fastball and slider combination and his control was much improved in 2024. Last year he pitched in Single-A Jupiter and High-A Beloit posting a total of 120 strikeouts over 96 innings.

(Drew Klein)