Every year, we at the TDG office identify Risers and Fallers from our consensus rankings. But how did we get here!? And what’s real and what’s noise? Well, the Gurus are here to help. In each “Risers and Fallers” article, the Gurus will take you on an explanatory journey as to why these players have seen a fortunate rise, or an unfortunate turn toward their demise. Thanks for reading!

RISING: MICHAEL KING, SAN DIEGO PADRES (AGE: 29, CURRENT RANK: 21, PREVIOUS RANK: 62)

Some (me) are calling 2024 the year of the converted relief pitcher. While Garrett Crochet was surely the most impressive of the bunch, Michael King was no slouch himself. What separated King from guys like Reynaldo López, Jordan Hicks, and even Crochet was the 173.2 innings he was able to stretch out to in 2024. King had been a multiple-inning reliever at points in his career, so it makes sense that he was a bit more stretched out than others. Altogether, King put together a top 20 fantasy SP, bringing himself into the “ace” discussion across the league.

What helped King make the transition so smoothly was a surprisingly wide arsenal. The key was his ability to limit damage against opposite handed batting, relying on his changeup to the tune of a 37% usage rate. He did this for good reason, as the pitch returned a .225 wOBA against LHB in 2024. Oddly, his Stuff+ is dragged down by the pitch, but it has long been the case that Stuff+ struggles with the pitch type. 

King is likely due for some regression. His 3.63 SIERA suggests that the ERA should climb a bit in 2025. Luckily, Petco Park should cushion some of this regression. For a pitcher who is projected by most systems to put forth ~10 K/9 with suitable control numbers, he should provide a lot of value in both leagues that count raw-stats and leagues with rate-stats (eg, K/9, BB/9, K/BB). This is of course assuming he continues to accumulate innings.

I am most interested in understanding how we can apply what we learned from King towards the future in dynasty leagues. Given the general success across the league with converting relief pitchers to starting pitchers, I would not be surprised if this continues to be a trend. So being able to identify targets before they find this success may become a viable strategy. From King, one can take away the value of a change-up, and more generally, the ability to handle opposite-handed batters. Reynaldo López showed that this skill is not particularly necessary if you can truly dominate the same-handed batters you face (.229 wOBA against righties vs. .306 wOBA against lefties). Crochet managed dominance purely through nasty stuff. Jordan Hicks, who lacks a changeup, shows what happens when the stuff-it-out approach does not translate as well.

As someone who does not like to target pitchers at top value, this archetype of pitcher feels like a very strong target going forward. All of these pitchers mentioned were very attainable before 2024 and are now (sans Hicks) solidified starting pitchers going into 2025. When looking at this group, I most like targeting guys like King who have the tools to neutralize platoon splits. While this is not a target article, I will say that the player who best fits this mold going into 2025 is fellow former Yankee Clay Holmes, whose newfound kick change (SWORD) could be just the weapon he needs to ease his transition back to starting.

(Joe Juliette)

FALLING: GERRIT COLE, NEW YORK YANKEES (AGE: 34, CURRENT RANK: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 2)

Gerrit Cole’s 2024 got off to the wrong foot after right elbow inflammation popped up in spring training. Cole still got to 95 innings, but the surface level performance from Cole lagged behind his 2023 AL Cy Young performance. What is interesting is that under the hood, Cole’s 2024 did not look all too different from his 2023. So, is his true talent more reflective of his 2023 or 2024 production?

Before I answer this question, I want to first draw a line between Cole’s 2022 and 2023 seasons. Across these two seasons, Cole’s K/9 dropped from a 11.53 in 2022 to a 9.56 in 2023. While Cole’s 2.63 ERA in 2023 was superior to his 3.50 ERA in 2022, his SIERA was almost a full point better in 2022 (2.77 in 2022 vs. 3.60 in 2023). SIERA has significantly more predictive power than ERA for future season ERA, thus acting as a stronger measure of true talent. Luckily, there is a more tangible measure of true talent that is at our hands, Stuff+. Cole’s Stuff+ dropped from 118 in 2022 to 109 in 2023. Within this drop, there was one major suspect among his arsenal: the fastball. Cole’s fastball dropped from a 122 Stuff+ to a 105 Stuff+ across the two years. Cole not only lost velocity on his fastball (97.8 MPH in 2022 → 96.7 MPH in 2023), but lost vertical and arm-side horizontal movement on the pitch. At the time, this pitch was foundational to Cole’s arsenal, throwing it 52% of the time. Of course, Cole won a Cy Young in 2023, so many of these concerning changes went under the radar.

Things only got worse for Cole in 2024, where an injury limited any ability to make up for losses on the fastball. He compensated with an increase to usage on his cutter (7% in 2023 → 16% in 2024) and a decrease in usage of his fastball (53% in 2023 → 45% in 2024). However, this added cutter usage looks more akin to a bandaid than a meaningful solution. Cole’s K/9 stayed low in 2024 at 9.38, and his command slipped (106 Location+ in 2022 → 101 Location+ in 2023). This culminated in Cole’s lowest K-BB% since his days in Pittsburgh at 17.9%. To encompass the slow decline, Cole’s SIERA continued its climb to 3.79 in 2024.

Without the truly remarkable ratios of 2023, Cole is no longer providing the strikeout upside to warrant being considered among the elite dynasty players at starting pitcher. With injuries starting to pop up, the floor could fall out at any point for the now 34-year-old. For someone whose name is synonymous with dominance, now is the time to turn to your league-mates and see who may still be interested. He is still a great pitcher, no doubt, but I fear the production will disappoint those expecting peak Cole.

(Joe Juliette)