The Cardinals selected Chase Davis with the 21^st overall pick in the 2023 amateur draft out of the University of Arizona where he slashed .362/.489/.742 with 21 homers in his final season. He was assigned to the Florida State League and struggled offensively in 34 games. The scouting reports on Davis have not changed since he was not selected out of high school in the shortened 2020 draft. Scouts have consistently graded his hit tool as average at peak, and his power, speed, and fielding grade as above average, while having an arm that can easily play at a corner outfield position if he moves down the defensive spectrum.

Despite being a recent first round pick with good tools, we currently rank Davis in the bottom half of our top 100 outfield prospects. Sometimes these players present good buying opportunities, so let’s take a closer look.

What does he do well?

Davis was reassigned to the Florida State League (FSL) to start the 2024 season. On the surface, he was hitting an uninspiring .232/.337/.401 but earned a promotion to High-A after 71 games. Davis finished strong in 30 High-A Midwest League games and earned another late promotion for eight games in Double-A. The FSL is a difficult hitting environment, and his slash line was 11% better than league-average.

Davis’s exit velocity numbers bear out his above-average power grades and isolated power production, even if his home run numbers do not. His 90^th percentile exit velocity is 103 mph and his maximum exit velocity is 111 mph. His in-zone contact rates are above average and his contact data shows that he is pulling the ball in the air most often. Pulling the ball in the air is a trait that tends to stay consistent throughout a player’s career, and it is one that is a positive indicator for Major League power production.

Chase is a patient hitter who does not swing at pitches out of the zone. His strikeout percentage dropped to a respectable 21% after his promotion. This decline in strikeout rate coincided with an approach that got more aggressive in the strike zone as the season progressed. He started 2024 with a very passive swing-rate at pitches that are in the strike zone. His rates increased markedly by the end of his season in Double-A.

So, what is the catch?

Scouts have graded Davis’s run tool as above average since he was first draft eligible in 2020. Three-quarters of his game appearances in his professional career have been in center field which should corroborate his above-average run grades. I would have thought a player who is a good runner would steal bases occasionally. I was dead wrong. Davis ATTEMPTED four total steals during his time at Arizona. He has attempted 14 steals in 146 professional games.  I don’t think we can expect any stolen bases for fantasy teams.

Davis hits a large number of pulled ground balls. Ground balls result in low BABIPs and therefore low batting averages for fantasy teams. Even worse, ground balls cannot be home runs. His home run to fly ball rate runs lower than the 15-20% that I would like to see.  Both aspects of his batted ball profile need to improve before he can become an impactful fantasy baseball option.

What am I looking for in 2025 and what is his outlook?

I was encouraged to see that Davis’s swing frequency increased while reducing his strikeout rate. His ground ball rate and home run-to-fly ball ratios may remain static which would be concerning.  Davis’s late-season promotion should mean he starts 2025 in Double-A. If he can keep his strikeout rate around 20% while improving his batted ball profile I think he becomes a player to buy. I do not necessarily think that Davis will be a star, but there may be a solid fantasy outfielder here. The development he showed during the 2024 season has me optimistic about his future. Davis still has work to do as a prospect, but I don’t think that a mid-2026 debut for Davis is unrealistic. Davis is not a perfect prospect but he currently presents a decent buy-low profile for deeper dynasty leagues.

(Brandon Ring – @ringb39 (X), ringb39 (BSKY))