Happy New Year, y’all! Not sure if the statute of limitations is up on that one yet, but we’re running with it. Because we can!

This week, the Gurus brainstormed 8 Breakout Hitters for the coming season. Appreciate everyone giving it a read. Also – rankings season is almost here so be sure to stay tuned into the site!

Let’s get to it.

Drew Klein (@aok_fan (X), @drewgotigers (bsky)) 

My breakout hitter for 2025 is Miami Marlin Connor Norby.  Norby came over from the very deep Baltimore system, along with Kyle Stowers, for Trevor Rogers in a 2024 deadline trade. He moved to third base after the trade, and his future may be in left field, but for the moment, he’ll get everyday appearances for the Marlins at third. Miami didn’t win much last year, but it looks like they won that trade.

Over three seasons in college, Norby slashed .392/.458/.596. Over four years in the minors, his slash line was .285/.367/.494, which includes a line of .294/.370/.498 in Triple-A. And in his call-up at the end of the year with Miami, he hit .247/.315/.445 with 7 home runs in 162 plate appearances. Projected over 600 plate appearances, that would be a 26-home-run season, and I think he’ll surpass that with a full season in 2025.

Simply put, he hits the ball hard, and he hits it in the air. His 2024 barrel percentage of 14.8% borders on elite, 38% hard-hit rate is slightly above average, and those combined with high line drive rates (consistently over 25%) and flyball rates (35 – 40%) will result in above-average production. In his major league debut his swinging strike rate was higher than normal for him and his zone contact percentage fell below 80%. Even with the understanding that he’s now facing major-league pitching, I still anticipate those numbers will improve with a little more experience under his belt.

And if you act now, as an added bonus, we’ll throw in some stolen bases. Although he’s never stolen much, he has elite speed and may be the fastest player on a team that includes Xavier Edwards. Miami’s going to need to do something to create runs, so more stolen bases for Norby are a realistic outcome.

David Gofman (@dgofman (bsky))

Let’s start with a quick game of “guess the player”. I’ll give you the 2nd half stats of an unnamed player projected over a full season (600 plate appearances):

.309 Average, .390 On Base Percentage, .508 Slugging Percentage 

46 doubles, 20 home runs, 89 runs, 74 RBI, 6 stolen bases 

11.9% walk rate, 25.2% strikeout rate

I’ll give you a few hints: he played second base and it was his age 26 season. I’ll also go out on a limb and say he’s likely available or cheap in your dynasty leagues. Any guesses?

The mystery player is none other than the newest member of the Reds, Gavin Lux. The former top prospect had a rough start to the 2024 season with the Dodgers after missing all of 2023 after tearing his ACL in spring training. The return of chronic throwing issues in the spring of 2024 saw him relegated to second base duties after initially being handed the keys to the starting shortstop spot in Los Angeles, and there were understandably some cobwebs to shake out in the first half with the bat, as Lux hit just .213, with a .562 OPS and a 60 wRC+. But the Dodgers stuck with the then 26-year-old and he found his stroke in the second half, hitting for more power and a significantly higher average.

Lux’s increased power and overall success in the second half can be attributed to two key changes; hitting the ball harder and in the air more often. One of the knocks on Gavin Lux historically has been how often he hits the ball on the ground (he had a 47% Ground ball rate in 2021 and a 49% GB rate in 2022). But he turned that around in the second half of 2024 in a big way, decreasing his ground ball rate from 53.7% in the first half to 40.8% in the second, while also increasing his hard hit rate from just 25.4% to 37.7%. His pull rate, also often correlated to power output, also ticked up slightly from 37% to 39%.

Gavin Lux’s move to Cincinnati breathes new life, and adds some intrigue, to his future outlook. Great American Ballpark is the best park in baseball for left-handed power, and early indicators point to the Reds being intent on getting Lux into the lineup every day. So why not Gavin Lux as my 2025 breakout player? If he can carry forward the changes he made in the 2nd half of 2024 to the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark in 2025 he could vault himself right back into the conversation of being a top 10 dynasty 2nd baseman (assuming he sticks at 2nd base that is).

Brian Labude (@Polar_Bear_Ball (X))

This could be the year the Oakland/Sacramento Athletics make it back to the playoffs. If they do manage to do so, it will be behind a breakout season from Tyler Soderstrom. He is still very young for the major league level (23 years old) and continues to show he is too advanced for the Triple-A level. He slashed .279/.385/.607 with 10 home runs and 27 RBI in just 143 plate appearances at Triple-A in 2024. Yes, it was in the Pacific Coast League, but he has nothing left to prove there. With obstacles to him receiving everyday at-bats currently removed, he should be able to get comfortable at the plate and produce more consistently like he did in June last year at the big league level. He slashed .250/.326/.500 with six home runs and 13 RBI over 80 plate appearances. His statcast numbers are very impressive as well. His average exit velocity of 91.9 mph, barrel rate of 14.6%, and hard-hit rate of 49.6% are all upper-tier percentile ranks. If he can stay healthy and the team doesn’t decide to bring in a more experienced first baseman before Spring Training, he could be a big breakout with 25 or more home runs and 75 RBI.

Brandon Ring (@ringb39 (X) ringb39 (Bsky))

I was expecting Garrett Mitchell to break out in 2024, but after two injury-plagued seasons, I am going to take my mulligan and say that 2025 will be the year he puts together a valuable (and full) fantasy season. 

There are red flags in his profile. Injuries have limited Mitchell to 365 career plate appearances across three seasons. His 31% strikeout rate in 2024 was 10 points higher than the MLB average. He hit a lot of ground balls in 2024. Typically, a player producing a combination of high strikeouts and a high ground ball rate is one to avoid. However, I see an opportunity to take a big swing on a player who may not be as risky as the surface numbers suggest.

Mitchell does not swing at pitches that are out of the zone, as the high strikeout rate would suggest. Statcast says he has elite chase rates and does not miss pitches in the zone much more frequently than his counterparts. His short swing generates bat speed that is near the top of the league. This indicates his approach might be too passive, which should be an easier fix than other problems that a high strikeout rate might indicate.

Mitchell’s ground ball rate is still concerning, though he still posted a 122 OPS+ in 2024. 30% of his fly balls ended up in the seats, and if he can get his launch angle back to his historic 7 to 9 degrees a 25 home-run season is easily attainable. He runs elite sprint speeds and plays for a team that attempts the 3rd most steals in baseball. When he returned from the injured list on July 1st, he was immediately placed in the 2-5 spots in the batting order and had no platoon splits. 

Mitchell’s positives outweigh the negatives that a surface stat line scan might indicate. He is a gamble, but I see a potential 4 to 5-category contributor in standard leagues that should not cost much to acquire. 

Daniel Labude (@OrcaBaseball (X))

My breakout hitter for 2025 is Christian Encarnacion-Strand. He is the perfect embodiment of a breakout hitter for this coming season and it all comes down to his health. If healthy, and I do mean truly healthy, he could put up all-star numbers and be an important cog in fantasy baseball lineups. 

What went wrong in 2024? That is a very easy answer, but somehow a super complex one at the same time. It all came down to injuries, past injuries, and bad play. Encarnacion-Strand hit .190/.220/.293, culminating in a .513 OPS and a 33 wRC+ last season. He only played in 29 games and hit just two home runs. He was hit on the wrist and landed on the injured list for the rest of the season. Even that wasn’t simple, because at first, they found a previous fracture, then later they found a new fracture, and eventually, they found ligament damage in his wrist. It is only speculation on my part, but I believe the 13.6% jump in his ground ball rate last year may have been influenced by a previous injury (first fracture found). 

Overall, I am taking the chance on Encarnacion-Strand and his health going into 2025. If his wrist is back to normal, I expect his normally higher line drive and fly ball rates to return. He is a player who routinely hits the ball hard and in the air, which should make for great results in Great American Small Park. Here is to a better 2025 for Encarnacion-Strand.

Donovan Miller (@spittingseedsbb(X)) (@spittingseedsbb(bluesky)

With the departure of Max Kepler in Minnesota, Matt Wallner should receive regular playing time while manning the majority of innings in right field for the Twins. With a loud bat and cannon for an arm, Wallner is on track to break out in his 27-year-old season.

Wallner has no doubt power. With an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, he produced a hard-hit rate of 52.3% and a 17.5% barrel rate in 2024: this and a 21.6% launch angle slots Wallner in the potential elite home run territory. The excessive launch angle does allow for some holes in his swing, creating a 34.5% K-rate over his first three seasons, but Wallner counters this with a 10% walk rate during that same timeframe.

During the past two seasons, Wallner has shown consistent power results. In 254 plate appearances during 2023, Wallner created 11 doubles, one triple, 14 home runs, and a 138 OPS+. In 2024, he hit 17 doubles, one triple, and 13 home runs with a 149 OPS+ over 261 plate appearances. Though the Walker Jenkins call-up is looming, Wallner’s power bat and strong outfield arm should yield 550 plate appearances in 2025. Out of the current outfield eligible players for 2025, only six hit over 30 home runs last year, making Wallner a late source for 30 home runs, 80+ RBI, and a .370 OBP.

Joe Juliette (@joejuliette.bsky.social)

2023, 2024, 2025 will be the year of Jonathan Aranda. Aranda exists within a class of players, fairly or unfairly, deemed “AAAA” players. These players excel at the AAA level (Aranda carries a career 147 WRC+ in 1043 ABs at AAA) but fall flat when they get their taste of MLB play. This phenomenon is multifactorial, and many of these players do not overcome this barrier. However, when they break through they become dynasty value bombs. Late-age breakouts such as Max Muncy, Christian Walker, and most recently Brent Rooker have been production boons for those dynasty managers who were able to swoop them up for free. 

Aranda’s slash line (.234/.308/.430) in 2024 left much to be desired for a player who holds negative defensive value. This, in combination with a crowded lineup and a fractured ring finger, led to Aranda only receiving 143 PAs. So where is the hope? 

For hope, we turn to every modern fantasy writer’s favorite tool: Statcast. Aranda’s xwOBA (.362) and xSLG (.518) far exceeded his realized wOBA (.320) and SLG (.430). These expected numbers differed from his previous ~100 MLB PA samples in 2023 and 2024, where in both seasons his xwOBA and xSLG fell below .280 and .350, respectively. The most tangible difference between Aranda’s 2024 MLB stint and his previous stints was a 16.5% barrel rate, which ranked him 12th among MLB hitters with at least 100 PAs. Of those in the top 30, the only hitters to do so with a sub 25% K-rate included Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Trout, Ozuna, Seager, Pavin Smith, Soderstrom, Tatís Jr., and Yordan. The list speaks for itself. This is all to be taken with a grain of salt, as we are talking about a 143 PA sample. However, barrel rates have been found to stabilize relatively quickly, after approximately 50 batted ball events (BBEs), and Aranda carried this precipitous rise in barrel rate (~6% → 16.5%) across 97 BBEs.

Fangraphs has Aranda pegged as a strong-side platoon on opening day, which checks out as the most likely outcome. If Aranda can continue to barrel the ball in this way, while maintaining the approach he displayed in AAA, the value of 450 ABs in a more hitter-friendly park (especially lefties) far exceeds the miniscule price to obtain Aranda in your dynasty leagues.

Phil Barrington (www.waypastcool.org)

Going, going, back, back to Josh Jung

Yes, he was my pick to click last year, and Jung’s first four games of 2024 were proving me right; two homers and a .412 batting average in 19 plate appearances. Then, a fractured right wrist after being hit by a pitch gave Jung a near three-month break. He returned in late July, did okay, and ended the season early due to the wrist still being an issue. Hopefully, an off-season of R&R will get him back to 100% this season.

Roster Resource has him hitting in the six hole of the lineup, between Adolis García and Evan Carter; not too shabby. As he improves, watch him move up the order; 100 RBI seems like a distinct, relatively easy, possibility. He’s only 26 years old (27 in a month), with power, in a great lineup.

Of course, injuries! But last year’s, and a 2023 Jorge Soler hotshot to third base fractured his left wrist, are accidents, and in 2023 he followed that injury time with a good playoff run. The wrist injury ended his 2024 early and thus Jung didn’t have time to redeem himself. Now, he’s discounted, with a current ADP on Fantrax of 211. Draft him as a backup and he’ll perform like a starter.