Now that we’re halfway through the season, it’s time for our Annual Mid-Year Rankings.  To accompany the positional rankings, which are posted on the TDG website, we’ll feature some risers and fallers, and one writer will highlight The Next Big Thing for each position.

Enjoy and feel free to let us know what you think in the comments down below, find us on Twitter/X, or better yet, join our Discord!

Riser: Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers (Preseason rank: 27, Mid-Year rank: 11)

Riley Greene had a 16 place jump up our rankings due in large part to adjustments he’s made at the plate, and in small part to our underestimating him in the preseason rankings. A look at his surface stats shows he has increased his power and his on-base percentage with a small reduction in his batting average. Last season, which was shortened by injuries, he had 416 plate appearances and hit 11 home runs with a .288/.349/.447 slash line.  This year in roughly the same number of plate appearances (412), he’s hit 17 home runs with a .271/.363/.500 slash line.

A deeper look at his underlying stats reveals two factors for this change. The first is his swing, and if you watch him play, you don’t need Statcast to tell you he’s swinging with a fierce uppercut. His launch angle has increased from 6.6% to 11.4% and his fly ball rate has jumped from 24.8% to 34.8%. Even though his hard hit rate is actually down a bit, by putting the ball in the air more often he’s also putting the ball out of the park more often, even in Comerica.

What is setting him apart however is that, unlike many hitters who sacrifice OBP for power, he’s actually increased his OBP thanks to a more patient approach at the plate. He is swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (23%) and also fewer pitches in the strike zone (61.4%). Early in counts, he’s not afraid to give the pitcher a strike on the corners, and he’s pouncing on pitches middle and up in the zone. The increased patience has resulted in a higher walk percentage, and the in-zone selectivity has reduced some of the swing-and-miss in his game.

There’s a lot of talent in our top ten outfielders and so Greene may end up staying at 11, but there’s not a lot separating him from the three or four names above him either. He clearly works at this craft, and could very well break through.

Drew Klein (@aok_fan)

Faller: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (Preseason rank: 3, Mid-Year rank: 13)

Let’s get this out of the way. I think Corbin Carroll will be a long-term fantasy asset and if I’m in a league where a manager is having doubts, I’m considering making trade offers to get Carroll on my team. I do have him on a couple of rosters and I’m not considering selling low.  Yet.

That said, this fall from three to thirteen is justified and needs to be explored further. His numbers last year were incredible, 25 home runs, 116 RBI, and 54 stolen bases. This year, he’s projected to finish with 13 home runs, 100 RBI might be within reach, and likely 35 stolen bases. He’s actually walking more and striking out less than last year, but his 2023 slash line (.285/.362/.506) has fallen (.211/.299/.399).  His BABIP has also dropped to .246, but these drops in numbers are more than just bad BABIP luck.

The numbers give us some clues for the drop in production.  His exit velocities are down slightly, barrel % has dropped from 7.6% to 4.1%, and not only has his fly ball rate dropped from 37% to 35%, his Infield Fly Ball Percentage (percentage of fly balls that don’t leave the infield) has more than doubled to 23.8%.

I can’t say for sure if it’s the injuries, but I think it may be.  Last year he injured his wrist on September 6, and although he played through it, he hit only one home run the rest of the season. This year he’s suffered shoulder and rib cage “discomforts,” which neither he nor the team have said much about. It would seem likely that these types of injuries would sap power.  And maybe cause someone to change swing patterns to protect his body.  I don’t have access to medical reports so I’m only guessing here, but putting all the clues together, I think it’s a pretty good guess. That leaves us with a dilemma, will we see 2023 level production again once he’s fully healthy, or will his injury history continue to haunt him. Until I see sustained increases in his production, he’ll continue to slip down my rankings, but that potential will be enough for me to keep him rostered in most fantasy formats.

Drew Klein (@aok_fan)

Riser: Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres (Preseason rank: 23 at SS, Mid-Year rank: 17 at OF)

Okay, now , this guy is exciting. And not just for Padres fans.

Oh, what’s that now? you’re worried about his walk rate being too low? That a .307 OBP isn’t good enough to warrant being a top-20 OF for dynasty leagues?

Should we tell everyone? Should we throw a party? Should we invite Bella Hadid!?

No. I will concede that his OBP could be better. Fine. And, well, July has been mildly horrendous, as he’s hitting .167 with exactly zero homers and one, count ’em, ONE steal in this god-forsaken hell of a month.

But no. In spite of this month, the guy is rocking a .736 (6th among rookies with at least 250 PA’s) and is tied for second among MLB rookies with 12 dingers. He’s also 4th in stolen bags with 10. We love a well-rounded king.

But here’s what I love most about Jackson Merrill. Every single at-bat of his I watch seems to be in his control (and I’ve seen a lot of ’em). There is almost zero flailing, and his bat control seems to be way ahead of his years (remember, he’s only 21 years old). He’s a really solid presence at the plate. Now – I know that that is anecdotal, and I don’t have a stat I can point to to quantify or project what I consider to be above-average plate presence. Nor do I base much of my rankings on such things. Just a little something I’ve felt is apparent when he’s at the plate, and which makes me feel he’s poised to be a solid dynasty provider for years to come.

Taylor Case (@TCasesLoaded)

Faller: Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies (Preseason rank: 20, Mid-Year rank: 59)

This one stings. I had Nolan Jones ranked in the top-60 overall of my Top 500 back in March, and as noted above, we as an office had bounced him all the way into the top-20 Outfielders. This season has just been a massive bummer.

So let’s hit some positives first: he’s still taking walks. A 13.1% walk rate is quite good.

…

I’m sorry y’all, but I am now being told that that is the most positive thing going on for Jones this year. I could make the relatively flimsy argument that his hard-hit rate is up a bit, or that multiple injuries have likely contributed to the downturn in fantasy production, and that he’ll surely come back strong at some point.

You bet I could. And maybe he will!

But to be honest, I don’t feel any strong kind of way about him anymore, and I admit I may have bounced a little too hard for him in the preseason. My hope is that Coors props him back up, he gets and stays healthy, and takes care of business in 2025. He’s potentially a decent guy to acquire if you’re into a soft rebuild, but my expectations are much lower than they used to be.

Taylor Case (@TCasesLoaded)

The Next Big Thing: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox (Mid-Season Rank: 15)

It seems like only yesterday that Jarren Duran lost a Raimel Tapia inside-the-park grand slam in the twilight and failed to hustle to get the ball.  By the end of that 2022 season, Duran had played 91 games at the major-league level and had very little to show for it.  The supposed swing change at the alternate site in 2020 had not borne fruit and dynasty players were likely losing patience.

Then 2023 came around and Duran showed signs of life.  At Triple-A, he made tangible changes to his swing decisions, posting a career high 19.6% walk rate in what would end up being a short stint in Worcester.  He was promoted to Boston and produced over a four-month period, hiting eight homers and swiping 24 bags.  The increase in walk rate from Triple-A disappeared, but at least Duran was hitting and hitting well, posting a .295/.346/.482 slash line.  A season-ending injury in August cut his season short and likely kept dynasty players from noticing the breakout.

In 2024, the Next Big Thing has been a total stud.  While he does not possess prodigious power, Duran makes up for it with line drives, speed, and aggressive baserunning.  In 99 games, he has 12 homers, 105 combined R+RBI, and 22 steals.  What’s even more impressive is that Duran leads the league in triples with ten and is number two in doubles with 30.  It also doesn’t hurt that his Savant page is very red, leading the Gurus to believe that this production is sustainable.

In short, Duran has been running wild, leading to his first All-Star selection, where he was named MVP.  He is 14th on the Razzball player rater producing like a late first round/early second round pick, sandwiched between Bryce Harper and Rafael Devers.  Not bad company!  Our preseason write-up of Duran advised dynasty players that “now is the time to invest”—let’s hope you did because at 27 years old, Duran could produce at an all-star level for the next five years providing five-category production.

Double R (@TheRotoRed)