2024 Dynasty Baseball RankingsDynasty Baseball

THE DYNASTY GURU’S 2024 TOP 125 DYNASTY LEAGUE OUTFIELDERS, #21-#60

WELCOME BACK DYNASTOPIANS!!! Let’s keep going with the #21-#60 consensus outfielder rankings!

#21-#30

RankPlayerAvg. Rank
21Kyle Schwarber22.1
22Bryan Reynolds23.7
23Christian Yelich23.7
24Evan Carter24.2
25Seiya Suzuki26.2
26Josh Lowe26.8
27Riley Greene26.9
28Dylan Crews31
29James Wood32.7
30Ian Happ32.9

Whoooo baby do we have a lovely bunch here. Do you like thump? I gotcha. Or perhaps all 5 roto categories in one player? Yep, got that too. Does upside make you salivate? Yeah baby, we got the stew for you. All sorts of dream rosters can be formed with this group of 10 outfielders. And if you play your draft cards right, you very well could end up with more than one.

Coming in at 21 is the modern definition of slugger – Kyle Schwarber. The beefy boi mashes and there’s no question about it. Outside of the pandemic season, he has only hit less than 30 homers ONCE in 6 other full seasons of play. What additionally gives him a boost in our rankings is his eye for balls and strikes. While he has plenty of swing-and-miss, he knows what’s in the zone. For his career, he’s an above-average walk taker (14%), and had his best season in the category last year (17.5%).  Expected to bat LEADOFF for the Phillies is a great place to live your baseball life and there is a real possibility he eclipses the 200 R+RBI total for the second year in a row. He’s well-priced and ranked currently, though now that he’s entering his age 31 season maybe you can get him relatively cheap since he’s now ‘old’?

Next are Bryan Reynolds and Christian Yelich, two vets who will fill up a lot of your roto category buckets. Reynolds is showing to be a consistent 25/10 type bat who’s in his prime as a 29-year-old. He did have a rough July last year that seemed to sour many. Even including that poor month (52+), he kept it together and was a well above-average baseball player (111 wRC+) in the second half. He will be a steady contributor for the next handful of seasons no question.

Many keep saying Yelich is reaching the twilight of his career, based on age and somewhat recent back injuries. It’s true, he won’t likely be putting up 30+ homers like he did at the start of his Brewers career. But after a 19-homer season in ’23, his power is still ticking up and I agree with Steamer in that a 20/20 season is very likely. His ISO is ticking up closer to .200 (.125 -> .130 -> .169 the last three seasons) and rising in tandem with his AVG ( .248 -> .252 -> .278). He still has a sprint speed of 28.1 MPH so I don’t have any reason to think his SB or BABIP-fueled AVG are going to decline in the near future.

Evan Carter is the first rookie in my writeups. Though in 75 MLB plate appearances last year, he didn’t play like a rookie.  An OBP machine in the minors, he teased power each of his two seasons on the farm. The thump question remains, but it may not matter early since he’ll be surrounded by the arguably best AL lineup from Opening Day on. If the homer totals or any sign of struggles pop up early, jump on it as a buying opportunity. Because after this thoroughbred settles in, a cheap acquisition price will cease to exist.

Seiya Suzuki seems to get looked highly entering each year, then disappoints early in the season and then sneakily produces to close out. Last year was a prime example – a down 1st half (though it still was only 5% worse than average) was followed by a rocking 2nd half line: .313/.372/.566. Much of the early struggles are likely attributed to a strained oblique and opening the season on the IL. Suzuki closed out my end-of-season OBP list as a near top-100 guy and probably will be back a wee bit when all is said and done. But he’s going to still be a top 150 name for me and I’m excited to see what his third MLB season brings.

Speaking of sneaky, Josh Lowe was anything but to start last year. Entering June he had a 159 wRC+ with 11 homers and 13 swipes. June and July pitchers adjusted and he slumped hard. A good batter zigs when the league starts to zag, and in August he was back to rocking the baseball. Finishing w/ a 20/30 season and .292/.335/.500 line. The biggest concern for this season is the fact Lowe is a Ray and in a platoon – but he’s on the right side of the platoon and still racked up over 500 PAs last year. So despite me mentioning this, I still consider him one of my favorite buys. Hopefully, your league has an owner who slept through the final two months of last year.

Riley Greene was putting together a solid sophomore campaign before his season ended needing Tommy John surgery. Obviously not as impactful to position players as it is for their pitching counterparts, but he also missed a solid chunk of time last year due to a stress fracture in his leg. The most plausible statistical outcome for Greene is an upper teens homers, low teens stolen base season. Though some may squint and say he has a 20/20 bat. He’s still young, and he is part of an up-and-coming offense. I think regardless of how he performs, his preseason rank in a year will be drastically different.

Last but not least in my tier are two bats considered the future of the Washington Nationals outfield – Dylan Crews and James Wood. Both show immense upside potential and both left ‘23 with some noticeable question marks. Crews comps well to Bryan Reynolds in my opinion, with better SB totals. Wood could be a first-round redraft talent – but that swing and miss. Tall dudes will always have swing-and-miss concerns, and after 87 games at AA last year those concerns are justified. 34% K rates are hard to ignore but so is the 26 homer, 18 SB season he put together. Both players are immense talents I’m not out on and would love to roster.

(Chris Knock)

#31-#40

RankPlayerAvg. Rank
31Jasson Dominguez33.5
32George Springer33.6
33Cedric Mullins32.4
34James Outman36.9
35Anthony Santander39.3
36Chas McCormick39.7
37Lars Nootbaar40.6
38Lane Thomas41.5
39Jorge Soler41.7
40Jack Suwinski41.8

New faces, old names, and Steady Eddies are the name of the game for this group. Domínguez came in like Miley Cyrus circa 2013 with four home runs in just 33 plate appearances. Unfortunately for Domínguez, he went down shortly after that electric start with a torn UCL and required Tommy John surgery. He’ll be out until mid-summer at the earliest, but reports are they may have him spend some time in Triple-A after a lengthy absence.

After a dazzling 2021, Cedric Mullins has been on a steady decline ever since. What was once hoped to be a breakout, turned out to just be a career year. Mullins can still provide value, but with a declining skillset and a team looking for ways to get their young stars into the game, it will be hard to count on Mullins as a full-time starter on your fantasy squad. When he does play, he will provide some power and some speed, but looks to be a batting average and OBP sink now.

It will be interesting to see how James Outman fits into this new age Murderer’s Row that is the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. He figures to man centerfield for the foreseeable future, and the Dodgers seem willing to eat his 30% strikeout rate, as it comes with a high OBP and a tantalizing power/speed combo. Last year, Outman feasted on changeups to the tune of a .707 slugging percentage and fastballs last year when he made contact with them. He`s one of the guys I`m most excited about in this group and wouldn’t be surprised if he was bumped up in our mid-season update. As a small note, he did whiff on 56% of the splitters he saw last year…and he saw 53 of them! It means nothing, just amusing to me.

McCormick and Lane Thomas seem like the same person to me, both “broke out” in their age 27 seasons, both bat right-handed and they will both presumably get you 20ish home runs and 20ish steals while not killing you in batting average. They are the banana pudding of the Golden Corral buffet that is dynasty baseball, it’s not pretty, not particularly great but often the glue that holds the outing together, especially if it has those Nilla wafers on top.

Let’s lump Santander in with McCormick and Thomas, he’s a banana pudding with Nilla wafers on the top guy too.

This surely must be the year Nootbaar breaks out…right? I think so, and in OBP leagues especially, this might be the last instance you can acquire him on the cheap (and even now it’s not going to be cheap.) He needs to get the ball off the ground more as he had a 50% groundball rate last year. If he can just decrease that just a teensy bit I don’t think a 20 home run season is out of the question. He smacks the ball hard when he swings, the problem is he swings at pitches in the zone less than Juan Soto at 54%. Let`s be a little more aggressive Lars, sheesh.

The same can be said for Suwinski, who swings slightly more in the zone at 61%, but brother, swing the dang bat. Good things can happen when he swings the lumber, I truly believe we`ll see a 35 home run season out of him at some point in his career. The problem is lots of bad things tend to happen too, I`m sure he`s responsible for some typhoons or something somewhere with the whole butterfly effect theory because he misses so much.

If I had to pick a player this season to roll with, it would be Lars Nootbaar ditto in three years from now. Nootbaar is young enough to still be in his prime and I think if he can stay on the field all year we will see him blossom into a complete player.

(Ryan Epperson)

#41-#50

RankPlayerAvg. Rank
41Masataka Yoshida42
42Brandon Nimmo42.5
43Pete Crow-Armstrong44.8
44Esteury Ruiz45
45Nick Castellanos45.9
46Roman Anthony52.8
47Walker Jenkins52.9
48Kerry Carpenter53.1
49Teoscar Hernández54
50Jarren Duran55.6

A grouping that gives you a little bit of everything.  Whether you are looking at future projections or current performance, dynasty managers should happily plug each of these players into their lineups and reap the benefits.

Let’s start with the sluggers, Nick Castellanos and Teoscar Hernández.  For 2023, you are looking at set-and-forget OF2’s that should rack up counting stats in the middle of elite offenses.  Both players have plate-discipline issues which will likely get worse as they continue to age.  Hernández especially is an all-or-nothing hitter; he either hits it hard (81st percentile in average exit velocity) or swings through it (31.1% strikeout rate).  Both players can get hot and carry fantasy lineups for weeks at a time (for instance, Castellanos hit .351 in June with five home runs and 21 RBI).  At 31 years old, there is plenty in the tank for both hitters.

Next let’s discuss the three high-ceiling prospects, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Roman Anthony, and Walker Jenkins.  PCA struggled with his cup of coffee, however, he is a potential five-category contributor whose glove will keep him in the lineup while he continues to adjust to major-league pitching.  Anthony is a power-first hitter who broke out at High-A smacking 12 homers in 54 games after hitting only a single home run in his previous 62 games combined.  Jenkins, a complete hitter, was drafted fifth overall by the Twins and went on to hit .392 in Single-A at 18 years old with only a 10.7% strikeout rate.  Each of these guys is set to be a foundational outfield player for dynasty managers for years to come.

Onto the steady contributors, Masataka Yoshida and Brandon Nimmo.  Yoshida just finished his first season stateside where he alleviated any concerns about handling major-league velocities.  Yoshida batted .289 with fifteen homers and 143 combined runs and RBI.  Nimmo on the other hand, tacked on his seventh consecutive season of above-average offensive prowess, posting a 130 wRC+ with 24 home runs.  Nimmo played in a career-high 152 games in 2023 and dynasty managers can hope for much of the same this year as the Mets just signed Harrison Bader to lighten Nimmo’s defensive load.  With both of these players being 30 years old, dynasty managers can expect solid contributions from these two lineup stalwarts for the next few seasons, likely with Yoshida’s production being closer to his 2023 first half (.316/.382/.492).

Lastly, we will wrap up this grouping with the younger MLB starters who are poised to bump up their production next year, Kerry Carpenter, Esteury Ruiz, and Jarren Duran.  Carpenter followed up his 31 game debut in 2022 with a very successful 2023 season where he walloped 20 homers over 118 games.  In his second season, Carpenter increased his average exit velocity and walk rate, while lowering his strikeout rate, and at 26 years old, dynasty managers can hope for additional improvements as Carpenter looks to mirror his dominant 2022 Triple-A performance where he posted an ISO of .314 and a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  Ruiz finished his first full season with the A’s and the speed demon swiped 67 bags while posting a below-average wRC+ of 86.  However, 2023 was a huge improvement over Ruiz’s 2022 major-league debut. Ruiz is poised to be a fantasy monster if his production is closer to his 2022 minor-league numbers where his wRC+ was no less than 134 over his numerous stops, his walk rate was no less than 8.4% (double his 2023 major-league walk rate), and he hit a combined 16 home runs over 114 games.  Duran finally made good on the sky-high expectations of being a top-ranked prospect (i.e., peaked at No. 52 at FanGraphs) with a .292/.346/.482 triple slash over 102 games, with eight homers and swiped 24 bags.  His Triple-A numbers tells us that he has more power to unlock at the major league level and when he does, he can perennially hit 20 homers while seeing his coinciding counting stats increase as well.  Each of these three players have another gear to hit, so now is the time to invest.

If I had a pick a player to roster for 2023, I want Ruiz and all of the stolen bases.  If I am picking a player for 2026 and beyond, I want Jenkins and his complete offensive package, where he should be surrounded by a very strong stable of young Twins position players.

(Double R)

#51-#60

RankPlayerAvg. Rank
51Lazaro Montes60.2
52Steven Kwan60.3
53Jarred Kelenic60.4
54TJ Friedl60.8
55Spencer Steer62.4
56Lourdes Gurriel Jr.62.9
57Emmanuel Rodriguez63.7
58Henry Davis65.4
59Parker Meadows83.6
60Max Clark66

This tier is defined by its youth, bringing us three prospects, three 2023 rookies, three second or third-year players, and Lourdes Gurriel as the tier chaperone. This is also the place in the rankings where a fantasy manager needs to make two basic decisions:  do you value present production or future potential, and in which categories do you need contributions?

The future potential players, Lazaro Montes, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Max Clark, and Henry Davis each require fantasy managers to take a leap of faith.  Of this group, Clark has the highest ceiling.  He was picked third overall out of high school, so the actual data we have to look at is the definition of a small sample size. Scouts have consistently graded his hit tool  and hi speed very high and in his brief professional career he’s shown excellent plate discipline. What’s missing from this equation is power.  A manager looking for power from this foursome can look at Montes and Rodriguez. All indication is that Montes hits the ball hard and far, as exhibited by his .321/.429/.565 slash line in Low-A last year. However, that was accompanied by a 25% K rate and a single stolen base. He’s a high-risk/high-reward prospect in my opinion.  Rodriguez is not much different, although he’s shown a higher walk rate than Montes which will support a higher OBP. Don’t count on steals from him either, even though he had 20 in High-A in 2023, he’s got average speed and a history of leg injuries and I don’t expect he’ll have the green light very often.

Although Henry Davis has graduated from prospect status, I kept him in this grouping because it’s where he seems to fit. Think of it like school, and he’s being held back a year for this analysis. Oh Henry Davis, catcher of the future, we hardly knew ya. Aside from the positional change, another difference this past year has been his approach at the plate. In 2023 before he was called up, he was walking at a rate over 18% which gave him an OBP of .433 and .516 in Double-A and Triple-A respectively.  In 255 PA in the majors, he had a BB rate of 9.8% and OBP of .302.  His 70 grade raw power has not yet translated into game power at any level, his 19 home runs across three levels last year was his career highest. With Endy Rodriguez recovering from surgery Davis will catch in spring training, so there may be C eligibility returning, but with the number of young catchers coming up lately (or soon), that may not be as valuable as it would have been a few years ago.

The next grouping are the young players who have begun to make a contribution at the major league level, Steven Kwan,  TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer and Parker Meadows, who is admittedly an in-betweener but I’ll include him here to balance the groups, if for no other reason.  If your roster is looking for help with OBP, stolen bases and runs from this group, you want to take a look at Steven Kwan. His in-zone contact rate is 95%, and when he swings at balls out of the zone, which is rare, his contact rate is 77%, giving him an overall contact rate over 90%. For context, only one player had a higher contact rate last year (Arraez). As long as Kwan is at the top of the lineup in Cleveland, he’ll contribute to your OBP, stolen bases and runs.

Spencer Steer debuted in 2022 and made a big splash in 2023. We’re trying to rank players at each of their eligible positions, so I will note here that Steer may (will) be ranked even higher at one of the infield rankings.  His multi-position eligibility is a huge plus, and will keep him in the lineup every day which will drive his overall value up in any fantasy trades or drafts. His OBP should be in the .340-.350 range, he’ll hit around 20 home runs, is efficient on the bases but not a high base stealer and plays in a park and lineup that generates runs, so runs and RBI help will be there.

Steer’s teammate TJ Friedl provides a nice mix of power and speed, and if things fall right could be a 20/20 guy. His OBP in the .340 range won’t hurt your team’s production either. Like Steer, he’s in that potent Reds lineup that should score a lot of runs, so there will also be runs and RBI potential.  He’s overshadowed, and possibly at risk of being overtaken, by flashier teammates and if he gets off to a slow start could be at risk of losing playing time.

In a vacuum, Meadows is TJ Friedl without the OBP numbers.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t play in a vacuum, he plays in Comerica so the home runs and run production is going to be hindered as well. It’s fun to watch him play center field, but that doesn’t help us in fantasy baseball. The silver lining is that if he does get on base more often, he’ll be a sneaky source of stolen bases.

The two players I’m avoiding for very different reasons are Kelenic and Gurriel.  Kelenic because, well, come on. He’s shown flashes of why he was a highly regarded prospect by some but has not lived up to expectations at the major league level.  The trade to Atlanta may lead to a platoon that makes the most of what he has, but that won’t help his fantasy value much if at all. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a fun player to watch. He hustles, is aggressive at the plate, and has a knack for delivering in the clutch. In the game we play, that doesn’t matter much.  He doesn’t walk so his OBP is average, he might hit 20 home runs and he doesn’t steal bases.  Even though Arizona has a good lineup, hitting down in the order will hurt his counting stats.

For a fantasy team looking to win in 2023, the obvious choice may be Steer but I’m taking Friedl for the few extra stolen bases.

For a fantasy team looking to win in 2026, since I don’t think Clark will be ready yet, I’m taking Steer who I think will continue to improve in all categories and the multi-position eligibility is a nice bonus.

(Drew Klein)

The Author

The Roto Red

The Roto Red

Managing fantasy baseball teams since 2001, Roto Red is a strong believer in building a dynasty team through its minor league system. Happy to talk baseball at any time! Follow on Twitter @TheRotoRed

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