1. EMMANUEL CLASE, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (AGE 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 3)

Hey. Yeah, you know who I am. Emmanuel Clase. Clase as in class is in session.  I’m 6’2″ and 206 pounds of ALL-STAR HEAT from the Dominican Republic. I’ve been described as elite, ridiculous, unhittable, and have a golden arm. You might recognize me from my daily highlight clips on the Pitching Ninja’s Twitter feed. Or maybe from the All-Star game.  Yeah, I was the guy who struck out three in only ten pitches for the save. And FYI, none of the pitches were below 98 mph. Ask Schwarbs. I get asked all the time. What makes my cutter so unique? Well, besides the different variations, I throw it. Mine cuts to the glove side, while most fastballs run the arm side. That is why I was in the 100th percentile in chase rate. They should call it Clase rate now. Not impressed? Last season I threw that cutter at an average of 100.2 mph. Again, that was the average.  Of the 703 cutters thrown in all of MLB, they were 98.5 mph or higher. I threw all 703 of those. Again, that was all of them. I have a simple pitch mix. I throw the cutter 68% of the time and a slider that runs in the low 90s. That’s it. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen a hitter’s eyes widen when they see my slider hanging up there like a giant matzah ball compared to the cutter. They hang in the air just long enough for their knees to buckle or swing and miss when it dives away. Ask them if I need any more pitches.

I have a smoother delivery than my boss Tito’s head with a high leg lift and a ¾ slot to whip it. As you can tell, I’m not big on bragging, but I finished in the 80th percentile or higher in every Statcast pitching category, except for extension; who needs extension when you are in the 100th percentile in fastball velocity and spin? You already know about the chase rate. I’m in the 99th percentile in xERA/xwOBA and Barrel%. And finished in the 98th percentile in BB% and xSLG. I’m a big deal. Impressive, I know.

But it wasn’t always peaches and cream for me. I experienced heartache at the beginning of my career in 2018 when the Padres traded me for some guy named Brett Nicholas three years after they signed me back in 2015. They thought I was out of control with my 4.3 BB/9 and 19 wild pitches in Rookie and Low-A ball. The last straw was when I had a 2-5 record with a 6.00 ERA in 2017 with a 1.2 HR/9 and 5.1 BB/9. I did strikeout 46 in 39 innings. And yeah, I gave up 49 hits and 26 earned runs, but I thought I showed signs of being elite. There are no hard feelings, but it was obviously their loss. They are a bunch of Haders anyway.

I got a fresh start with the Texas Rangers, and they gave me a new lease on life when they converted me into a closer. I got promoted to the majors in less than two seasons in their system. I had a lot of firsts with the Rangers. But, you never forget first save. I was riding high but lowering my BB/9 to 2.0 during my time there. I thought this was the start of something special after going 2-3 with a 2.31 ERA/1.11 WHIP in 21 games in 2019. But, some old dude Corey Kluber caught their eye. So for the second time in my career, I experienced heartbreak and was discarded. 

I thought I had hit rock bottom, having been traded away a second time and this time to Cleveland, of all places. So I was weak, and I admit I cheated. I got caught taking PEDs and sat out the 2020 season. In 2021, I was a pivotal piece to the bullpen, but after former TDG top 10 RP James Karinchak blew some saves and an injury, I finished the season as the closer, with a 1.29 ERA in 69.2 innings and 24 saves. After that, it was a wrap. As the official closer, I converted 42 out of 46 opportunities and went 3-4 with a 1.36 ERA in 72.2 innings. In the last 32 games, I threw at a 70% strike rate and 16.5:1 K:BB rate. They say Lil’ Wayne calls me the Fireman now when I enter a game at Progressive Field. I only regret signing an extension for only $20 million for the next four years before the season starts. But I can’t complain. Life is good. I’m a millionaire, I got gold twists in my hair, and you’ll see me at the top of these rankings for a while. Book it! I guess one thing I can complain about is that Tito can ease up on my appearances. I mean 71 games in 2021 and 77 in 2022 to lead all MLB. Maybe it was a good thing I signed that extension. (Ryan Felix Fernandes)

2. EDWIN DÍAZ, NEW YORK METS (AGE: 29, PREVIOUS RANK: 24)

Hey! Hey! Hey! I’m Edwin Díaz! Have you seen me and my entrance with Timmy Trumpet? Can you believe just three years ago, those same people who are trying to dance to that song in the stands? Are the same people screaming for some goon Jarred Kelenic to return? Ha! Don’t get me wrong. I was stripped down in 2019 when I gave up 15 home runs in 58 innings. I ended the season 2-7 with a 5.59 ERA. Mr. Met wouldn’t even look me in the eye. No one remembered 2020 when I returned to an elite closer because no one wants to remember 2020. Maybe it helped me that all those crazy New Yorkers couldn’t come to the games. You should have heard what they said about my underoos! 2021 was alright. I got 32 saves with a 3.45 ERA. Also, Jarred Kelenic hit .181 in the majors. But it wasn’t good enough. Even one of the smartest and second most handsome Guru, Bob Osgood (@BobOsgood15), didn’t think so in last year’s rankings. He wrote I walked too many and blew too many saves for his liking. I understood that. I still averaged a walk rate of 3.87 BB/9 in the last three seasons. But when he decided to give Jacob DeGrom a fist pump instead of me. It got me poppin’ in each and every way! 

So I reinvented myself. Well, as much as I could with having only a two-pitch mix. My four-seamer averaged 99.1 mph, and my slider at 90.8. I threw my fastball over 63% of the time, even though I still had the velocity. I switched it up on them and threw the slider 58.1% of the time. The slider gave me a 19.4 value for runs above average and a 55.3% whiff rate. I used the fastball to set up each at-bat by attacking the zone with the first pitch. I threw a strike 71.1% of the time for my first pitch to hitters last season, which was by far the highest of my career. This led to a strikeout rate of 50.1%, again the highest of my career. But, I achieved this by throwing my lowest Zone% for strikes in my career at 40.1%. I let the hitters get themselves out. I had career bests in ERA, AVG against, FIP, and K/BB%. And for Bob, I had my best BB/9% since becoming a Met. I was so happy that I forgot to see how Kelenic did. How did he do? 

Anyway, at 29, I am at the top of my game, and the trumpets should be blaring for me. I got a new deal that will pay me over $100 million for the next five years. Too-too-too-toooooo-toom! All that is missing is that fist pump, Bob. (Ryan Felix Too-Too-Toot Fernandes)

3. JOSH HADER, SAN DIEGO PADRES (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 1)

Josh Hader was unavailable at the time of this piece, so I got the next best thing. The Guru of Gurus and the biggest Padres fan I know. Your friendly neighborhood dynasty dad Taylor Case. (@TCasesLoaded)

Well, Jiminy Cricket! I’m always excited to talk about anyone on my Padres! I have to say I was cautiously optimistic about the Padres trading for Mr. Hader… Golly gee! But don’t get me wrong; I was excited as heck. Even though we traded away Robert Gasser. (who Mr. Drew Klein @AOK_Fan just wrote a fantastic piece about) 

Along with Mr. Ross Jensen’s (@RossJensen12) favorite prospect Esteury Ruiz in the move to get Mr. Hader.  It wasn’t the first time the Padres mortgaged their future by trading away impact prospects for a quick fix. But, Jumping’ Gee Wilikers! We got a four-time All-Star with 525 strikeouts in 259 games with a 2.16 ERA and 0.93 WHIP to lock down the end of games! H-E-double hockey sticks, Bells! We hadn’t had an elite closer like this since Mr. Trevor Hoffman. 

But, at the beginning of his tenure with the Padres, Mr. Hader got Padre’d. Sorry, that is a local term. You might not be familiar with it. Since my Padres always let the fine citizens of San Diego every single Padred year. We don’t like saying the f-word in any way. My bestie Mr. Ross will type the words out because I could never. Hey buddy! Can you type that out for me now?

Ross from his Scout The Statline Lair – This f*ckin’ guy… Fail, failed, or failures all means Padre’d.  

Thank you, Mr. Ross. Such a great guy! I can’t imagine anyone nicer.

See! Padre’d doesn’t sound as bad, and I can never, ever be a bad person. Bless his heart. He tried. That is all you can do. In the 19 appearances for the Padres, he had a 7.31 ERA with two blown saves. In his first seven games as a Padre, he had three games in which he had a rough patch where he gave up 12 runs and eight hits in 0.3 innings. I blame myself.  I didn’t cheer loud enough at home for him. But I’m not a negative Nellie, so I will make sure you know the positives Mr. Hader had. He did convert seven saves and only gave up one home run during those 19 appearances. He still had 37.0% K/9%, which helped him finish in the 97th percentile in Whiff%. He also improved his BB% to 9.6% from 10.7% last season. So he can turn his frown upside down. He still had a lot of positives going on in the 2022 regular season. 

And as they say, good things come to those who wait. He showed many of those good things in the postseason, with a 0.00 ERA with four saves in five appearances. Along with ten strikeouts in 5.1 innings. He only gave up one walk and one hit. We won’t talk about how the season ended for the Padres. I was just happy they made it that far. Who knows. With Hader returning to elite form in the pressure cooker known as the postseason. Maybe next year, if I wish hard enough, maybe, just maybe, we won’t have the term Padre’d anymore and win it all. *You switched to the voice typing option * We better f*ckin’ not! I’m tired of this sh*t!    (Ryan Felix Fernandes, oh sh*t, I mean.. Taylor Case)

4. JORDAN ROMANO, TORONTO BLUE JAYS (AGE: 29, PREVIOUS RANKING: 8)

Up here, they call me Markham Maniac. Eh. I’m not like the three guys before me. Even though I like to slide around 140.496 km per hour (or 87.3 mph to you), I like to throw the four-seam cheese! (155.945 km per hour or 96.9 mph) Eh. I have a pitch mix formula that has helped me the last four seasons. Want to hear the secret? Eh. I flip-flop back and forth each year on which pitch I primarily throw. That way, I confuse ‘em. Eh. In 2019, I went 64/36 with fastball/slider, and in 2020 was 40/60; in 2021, 63/37; and last season, I went 49/51 with my fastball/slider mix. But, unlike those other fellas. I only have a 28.3 K%. That ranked me 48th among all qualified RELIEF pitchers in that category. So.. Eh? How am I ranked 4th? The Gurus don’t think I’m slow. Eh? 

They must know about my 222.5 centimeters (7.3 feet) extension being in the 99th percentile and how perceived or effective velocity works. Being 198.12 centimeters tall (6’5 feet) and that extension makes my fastball that runs 155.945 km (96.9 mph) look like 158.68 km (or 98.6 mph). That lands me 10th in the effective velocity rankings for relievers. The same goes with my slider, which goes from 140.496 km (87.3 mph) to 142.92 km/per hour (88.8 mph). That jumps me up from the 43rd to 14th place in how hard my effective velocity is for the slider. Not too shabby. Eh?  I also know how to throw my fastball with plenty of backspin. Eh. They helped me only have an 11.2 drop, ranking me 16th out of all MLB pitchers. I also know how to contrast my pitches, with my four-seamer predominantly landing on the upper left zone and my slider landing on the lower right side of the zone. Location. Eh. And finally, since my debut, I have given up fewer home runs each year. Last season I gave up 0.56 HR/9 compared to 1.00 in 2021. That is what you want in a closer. Eh?

That all helped me ascend the rankings and gave me my first All-Star nod. The only issue you might need to worry about. I get too excited sometimes. And I can’t contain myself. Eh. I do my little jig before I set and have my little hitches. It is a way to calm me down, but it sometimes gets me amped. I had six blown saves and four losses. Maybe I should lay off the maple syrup before a game. Eh? Wait. Romano played for Italy in the WBC in 2017!?! Mama Mia! (Ryan Eh Felix Eh Fernandes)

5. RYAN HELSLEY, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANKING: NR)

6. DEVIN WILLIAMS, MILWAUKEE BREWERS (AGE: 28 PREVIOUS RANK: 11)

You can call me Senor Smoke or El Bombero, as they do in the Emerald City. How does my hair look? I am sure you have seen my 103 mph four-seam smoke, or maybe you haven’t because it is 103 mph. Ha. ha. Ha. But that did land me in the 100th percentile. Hitters could only muster a 2.0 Solid% (Solid contact), which placed me in the 86th percentile, and a 24.0 SS% (Sweet Spot), which was in the 93rd percentile. My hair was also in the 100th percentile, as for my 88 mph slider, which looks identical to a hitter at my release point, which keeps a hitter guessing. With this hair and deception, my slider landed in the 95th percentile or higher from a 45.9% O-Sw%, 29.5% SwStr%, and 51.0% Whiff% against hitters. It had a Run-Value of -20 and ranked first in xBA and xwOBA. I am not the closer quite yet, but there is a slight possibility of beating out Paul (Sewald). I had a procedure on my foot right after the season, but my foot and hair feel great. I have been a bit of a fantasy darling the last couple of years since my debut, especially at The Dynasty Guru. But, one particular writer believed in me so much that! He pointed out quite eloquently how dumb a particular team was in trading me away even though I was recovering from Tommy John surgery at that time from a piece that you can see if you click the link below. 

https://thedynastyguru.com/2022/08/08/target-players-for-rebuilding-teams/

Do I dare say Ryan is the reason for my success? As well as my favorite Mariners fan…. and writer?  Yes, much more than fellow Guru Sam Wirsching (@SamFBB1). Just kidding, Sam…. about the Mariners part.

Lastly, I like to play a little Devil’s Advocate or, as said out here in Seattle, a little A-Rod’s Advocate. I am the second young, exciting, and elite ex-Padre that has landed in this top ten ranking. Now to be fair. My hair wasn’t as luscious, and my control was all over the place, with a 4.30 BB/9 in 2019. But I did have an elite 80-grade fastball and, at the time, a slider that could also be a plus pitch. And even though I looked like a third grader back then. I still had success in 22 major league appearances by putting up an 11.74 K/9 in your bullpen at the age of twenty. And no offense, but all the Padres have to show for trading away the #1 ranked Emmanuel Clase (and his blonde twists) and myself (and this hair) are two “seasoned” catchers in Brett Nicholas and Austin Nola. When I was in San Diego, I heard this term all the time, but it slipped my mind. If the Guru of Gurus Taylor Case (@TCasesLoaded) happens to remember what that term is, can he please add that?  “Padre’d”

(Ryan Felix, I wish I had Munoz’s hair, Fernandes)

9. CAMILO DOVAL, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 19)

11. Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Armed with Rocket Launcher for a right arm, Jhoan Duran is insisting that he will hit 105 on the radar gun this year.  It may not be far off either since he averaged 100.8 mph with his four-seamer and topped out at 103.3 last year. Only Ryan Helsley threw harder when he clocked in at 104 mph. Jhoan couples his four-seamer with a curve, sinker, slider and splitter. All of which generate extreme swing and miss, good luck finding your swing when you see the 100 mph fastball followed by an 88 mph curve. I think the Twins are gonna be tough this year and he should have ample opportunities for save chances.  Look for Duran to break the top 10 next year.  (Brian Shanks)

12. Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves (AGE: 33, PREVIOUS RANK: 7)

Raisel Iglesias was really good for the Cincinnati Reds and lets be honest, being able to compile 106 saves for the Reds is no easy feat considering the ball clubs lack of wins. Atlanta’s bull-pen was already dominate and then they landed Iglesias at the trade deadline last season from the Los Angeles Angels. Once Iglesias made it to Atlanta he gave up 1 run over 26 1/3 innings or a 0.34 ERA. With Kenley Jansen moving on to the Red Sox there is nothing in the way of Iglesias to be the full time closer. Gurus we may be very low on Raisel Iglesias and I think he is going to be a top 5 closer by the end of 2023. (Brian Shanks)

13. David Bednar, Pittsburg Pirates (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANK: 37)

Another case of a reliever putting up great numbers but is just stuck on an awful team. David Bednar was Pittsburg’s only All-star and it was well deserved. David complied 19 saves and a 2.61 ERA over 51.2 innings. He did struggle mid-season and wound up on the Injury List but when he came back he was lights out. I think the Pirates just flat out overused him but how can we blame them when the roster was that bleak. The future for the pirates is getting better but Bednar wont see that come to fruition and I think he probably gets traded to a contender which will only help his value. (Brian Shanks)

14. Clay Holmes, New York Yankees (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK:116)

Speaking of a Pirate that got traded to a contender and flourished. Next up is Clay Holmes and he was traded to New York Yankees from the Pirates during the 2021 season. With the Pirates there wasn’t much to speak of because honestly he was really bad.  Since being with the Yankees though he has been pretty darn good. 2021 he had a 1.61 era over 28 innings and 10.9 strikeouts per nine. 2022 he was able to get lock down 20 saves with a 2.54 era. Yankees Manager Aaron Boone has come out to say that “I would expect [Holmes] to close a lot of games for us. Probably most games, and hopefully a lot of games. But I do see a number of guys getting saves.” Good enough for me to think there is more saves coming Mr. Holmes’ way. (Brian Shanks)

15.Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox (AGE: 35, PREVIOUS RANK: 10)

Kenley Jansen has been a dominant closer since 2012. Coming into his 14th season I have no reason to think he won’t continue that. Jansen led the league in saves last year with 41 and had a 3.38 ERA with 12 strikeouts per 9 and a 1.047 WHIP. The biggest knock for 2023 has to be moving over to the Boston Red Sox as I don’t think he will have an opportunity to get as many saves as in the past. Fun fact, Kenley Jansen converted from a catcher to a relief pitcher in the minor leagues and holds a .333 batting average in the pros (only 9 at-bats). (Brian Shanks)

16. Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays (AGE: 29, PREVIOUS RANK: 63)

Recently signed 3-year,12 million dollar contract that could be worth 24.6 million dollars to stay with the Rays. Pete Fairbanks has shown signs of brilliant dominance but the one huge hurdle has been health. Two Tommy John surgeries, a plethora of shoulder issues, and most recently last year a torn lat muscle. While on the field last year he put up a 1.13 ERA in 24 innings with 14 K/9 (!) and a 0.667 WHIP while compiling 8 saves. I can’t hammer this home enough, IF he can stay healthy he is gonna be among the best relievers in baseball. I just don’t know if I am patient enough to wait for health. (Brian Shanks)

17. Scott Barlow, Kansas City Royals (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: 20)

Scott Barlow is one of my favorite relievers in baseball. 2021 and 2022 were good to the Kansas City Royals closer. Last year he had a 2.18 ERA, 24 saves, a WHIP of 0.996, and struck out 9.3 per nine. The biggest reason for my fandom is that the Royals have finally built the roster back up, he will have ample save opportunities and he has already shown he can shine.  Look for him to be in the top 10 next year.

18. Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: UR)

Younger brother to Edwin Diaz of the New York Mets. Gosh, I wish he was on a different ball club because I would be crowning him as the next-best closer. Alas, he is with the Cincinnati Reds and he just won’t have the opportunities he would with a contender. Last year he had a 1.84 ERA over 63.2 innings but only compiled 10 saves. His 11.7 K/9 and 0.958 WHIP tell me he could close for any team. I want to acquire Diaz on all my teams in hopes he gets traded to a contender.  (Brian Shanks)

19. Paul Sewald, Seattle Mariners (AGE: 32, PREVIOUS RANK:21)

Great case of a player just figuring out what he is. Paul Sewald has not had a great storied career in the professional ranks. He doesn’t have lights out stuff. He doesn’t blow you away with triple-digit speed. He has an odd delivery. He does, however, get you to screw up. He is the closer for an up-and-coming Mariners squad albeit it may be a comity. He is beloved in the area. And he can win you fantasy baseball championships.  (Brian Shanks)

20. Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers (AGE: 29, PREVIOUS RANK:96)

Jose Leclerc was on pace to become the next big reliever until 2020 struck and then the dreaded TJ surgery happened in 2021. He came back in 2022 and put up a 2.83 ERA with a 10.2 K/9 and 1.133 WHIP. I have long been a believer to avoid guys the year after TJ surgery. I want to acquire them 2 years removed.  He showed last year that he was coming back and he proved that he can move past it. Now is the time to go get him before the dominance occurs. He is going to be the closer for the Rangers and they have a sneaky good roster. Take the dive before it becomes to expensive. (Brian Shanks)

21. SERANTHONY DOMINGUEZ, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANK: 105)

The Phillies will open this year with a crowded bullpen, and likely a closer by committee approach, with names like Kimbrell, Soto, and Alvarado joining Dominguez in the mix.  This will sort itself out, and over time I believe that with his 29% strikeout rate, 50% ground ball rate, and 0.71 HR/9, Dominguez will emerge as the primary closer.  For dynasty purposes, he’s the one I most want on my roster from the Phillies bullpen. (Drew Klein)

22. ALEX LANGE, DETROIT TIGERS (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Alex Lange will receive the majority of save opportunities for the Tigers for the foreseeable future. Nobody on the current roster will challenge him for the closer role, and this isn’t a team that will be signing a free agent closer anytime soon.  He has a high strikeout rate (30.3%) but needs to get his walks under control (11.4% BB rate last year) and keep the ball on the ground if he’s going to become an elite closer. And the Tigers will need to win a few more games, but they tell us that’s coming.  (Drew Klein)

23. EVAN PHILLIPS, LOS ANGELES DODGERS (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Last year, after reading one prediction that Evan Phillips would lead the Dodgers in saves in 2022, I picked him up in a few of my leagues.  For a small investment, I received 63 innings of 1.14 ERA, 11 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, a 0.76 WHIP, and two saves.  Needless to say, two saves did not lead the Dodgers.

It is extremely difficult to predict breakout closers for several reasons, not the least of which is that major league managers do not choose closers based solely on statistics; there are game situational factors, the intangibles of closing, and even contracts and egos that may come into play.  And a contending team like the Dodgers will most likely depend on veterans who have been successful as closers.  That said, Phillips should be entering this year right behind veteran Daniel Hudson, will receive a number of save opportunities, and may be given the opportunity to show he’s their closer of the future.   If not, those are still great ratios to have on your roster until his time comes. (Drew Klein)

24. JORGE LOPEZ, MINNESOTA TWINS (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Jorge López has not taken a traditional path to the closer role, if there even is such a thing.  After several years as a swing man, spot starter, and middle reliever, he settled into a closer role with Baltimore in 2022 and had good results, amassing 19 saves before being traded to Minnesota in August.  His results with Minnesota were not as strong, with just three saves, one hold, and an ERA over 4.5.  Jhoan Duran appears to be ready to take over the closing role for the Twins making Lopez a high risk for dynasty rosters. (Drew Klein)

25. LIAM HENDRIKS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX (AGE: 34, PREVIOUS RANK: 2)

Chicago White Sox reliever Liam Hendriks has been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma.  Hendriks is a battler and an inspiration; he and his wife have already begun a campaign to promote awareness and the fight for a cure.  Our projections for Liam Hendriks: he will kick cancer’s ass. (Drew Klein)