TDG 2023 PLAYERS TO AVOID: STARTING PITCHER

This is a companion piece to our 2023 Dynasty League Rankings. The opinions below are my own and do not reflect the TDG consensus.
Tyler Mahle, Minnesota Twins (AGE: 28, RANK: 61)
I do think Tyler Mahle is a heck of a pitcher. That being said, and this goes for all pitchers, anytime I hear shoulder inflammation, numbness of fingers or anything that hints at an elbow issue my ears perk up and I run the other direction. When healthy in 2021 Tyler showed signs of dominance with a 3.75 ERA in 180 innings pitched and showed a lot of promise in the strikeout department with 10.5 strike outs per nine. Now that’s the good year because we have five other years to look at that show us complete mediocrity (2020 was good but it was only 47.2 innings). Not negating 2021 because it helps paint the picture but Tyler owns a career 4.35 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 3.3 walks per nine. Not really appetizing. Something that should help Mahle’s numbers was that he was traded away from the hitter friendly field of the Reds to the more pitcher friendly ball park of the Minnesota twins. That should cut down on the number of home runs he gives up. And he has been much better on the road then he was while at home. Players can grow especially pitchers but with the velocity drop and the shoulder issues I think I wanna go in a different direction around this slot. Now if he is around real late in your drafts then by all means snag him. He is worth seeing if that shoulder is stable and then he can continue to grow.
Justin Verlander, New York Mets (AGE: 40, RANK: 29)
Lets take a break to marvel at the absolute brilliance that was Justin Verlander in 2022. He pitched 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA, 185 strikeouts, 29 walks and a filthy 0.829 whip. All of this coming back from Tommy John surgery. Most 20 year olds struggle to come back from this and here my man does it at 39 and finishes 10th in the MVP voting. He has long been one of my favorite baseball players and is a sure fire Hall of Famer. Owning a career 77.6 WAR, 244 wins, 3.24 ERA and accumulated 3,198 strikeouts, he has earned the right for people like me to shut my mouth and draft him now matter what. If that is what you wanna do I wont go against you. I am never a fan of clichés and I try to avoid them at all costs, but “Father Time is undefeated.” If you have a win-now approach or are in redraft leagues then by all means Go Get Him, I myself tend to be in dynasty leagues and I would rather be a year early than a year late. Here’s to hoping he dominates for another 5 years. I would love to be wrong on this one but at some point the wheels fall off. I just hope he retires before that happens.