2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

THE DYNASTY GURU’S 2023 TOP 50 DYNASTY LEAGUE THIRD BASEMEN, #11-30

The rankings continue on! Below are the #11-30 3B’s for 2023, as judged by our studious group of Gurus.

11. Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays, (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 11)

Chapman had a great season in 2022, as far as sabermetrics are concerned. The batting average was under .230 which is underwhelming. His expected batting average was slightly better than his actual average which shows that there was some slight bad luck for Chapman. Matt’s hard-hit percentage was the best statistical surge for Matt from 2021 to 2022, as Matt jumped from just above league average to the top 4% of the league. In my opinion, for Matt to jump into the top ten percent of the league he needs to improve in xBA, K%, and whiff%. All of these metrics have Chapman in the bottom quarter of the league or worse. (Brett Cook)

12. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates, (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 9)

Hayes is still finding himself in my opinion. With his season cut short in 2021, Hayes came back in 2022 and picked up where he started. Ke`Bryan has shown that he has value in many different facets of the game as he stole 20 bases in 2022. This is one reason that Hayes finds himself so high on this 3B lists. He consistently hits the ball hard according to Baseball Savant, as his hard-hit percentage is in the top 20 percent of the league. Hayes has the same thing in common with the player who precedes him in these rankings. If he wants to jump in rankings at TDG, his strikeout numbers and metrics need to improve while maintaining the other metrics (or improving in all areas). (Brett Cook)

13. Jose Miranda, Minnesota Twins, (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 19)

Miranda took the fantasy world by storm last year in his rookie season. Miranda has pretty good pop as he crushed 21 bombs last year. When I look at Miranda’s stats, I see someone who is great at keeping your stat line up, while also providing good pop and a good amount of stolen bases. Players like this are so valuable in leagues where you have those extra categories because they contribute in all areas. I could see Miranda jumping a few spots this time next year, as his metrics weren’t amazing (which also shows that metrics aren’t everything). If you want a do-it-all third baseman but you weren`t able to get one of our top ten guys, here is a guy you shouldn’t pass up! (Brett Cook)

14. Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies, (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 14)

I love seeing red when I look at a player on Savant, and that is exactly what you see with Bohm. The one stat for Bohm that jumps off the page is his xBA. Bohm had a .280 batting average but his expected batting average was .290 which shows Bohm was a bit unlucky last year. The negative metrics that stick out to me from 2021 to 2022 for Bohm are that his average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage all took a significant step back in the span of a year. All these metrics dropped around 20 percent. For Bohm to jump up in our fantasy rankings, there needs to be a resurgence in these areas while improving and maintaining the other metrics. (Brett Cook)

15. Eugenio Suarez, Seattle Mariners, (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 23)

With the regression that Suarez had in 2021, I seriously doubted that he would be able to find himself again, but he proved me wrong. He rightfully finds himself in the top 20 third basemen in fantasy rankings. Suarez had the best metrics for his barrel percentage of his entire career in 2022. He also had the second-best walk percentage of his career in 2022 (88th percentile). With a very potent Mariners lineup and the fact that Suarez showed he can still hit for power consistently, Suarez is a good option for those looking for power and decent on-base numbers. (Brett Cook)

16. Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers, (Age: 32, Previous Rank: #6 1B)

First things first, Muncy struggled last season. His batting average was .196. Over the course of a full season, the only other time that Muncy had that bad of a year in the batting average department was in the weird COVID season. But with two of Muncy’s last three seasons ending with an average below .200, you have to at least entertain the idea that Muncy is seeing a decline in production. So let’s entertain the idea. According to the metrics, Muncy saw a decline in the following areas from 2021 to 2022; max exit velo, average exit velo, xwOBA,xBA, xSLG, barrel %(just barely), k% (horrible decline), and whiff %. The only two areas that Muncy improved in were walk percentage and chase rate. All of this tells us that when Muncy actually makes contact with the ball he is a stud. He doesn’t chase a lot of pitches out of the zone but he does swing and miss a lot with stuff in the zone. He is also very patient. I still believe that Muncy can have another solid year or two in offensive production, maybe more. (Brett Cook)

17. Brett Baty, New York Mets, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 18)

Listen to this craziness, Baty has more major league playing time than he does at the Triple-A level. He basically skipped Triple-A altogether after piling up close to 400 plate appearances in Double-A last season, because after six games in Triple-A, Baty got the call-up. Baty did struggle at the major league level in that short stint but I have no worries about Baty moving into this new season. Baty produced a high wRC+ with every minor league promotion. He also walked around 10% of the time during his minor league career. Baty also had a power surge last spring as he hit 19 bombs in Double-A. He also boasts a pretty solid stat line. If he can continue hitting for power like he did last season while hitting for a solid average, you are looking at someone who can continue to climb up these boards. (Brett Cook)

18. Curtis Mead, Tampa Bay Rays, (Age:22, Previous Rank: 38)

Mead has had an interesting minor-league career. In 2021 he played at A ball, High-A, and then was promoted to Triple-A. The following season Mead began his minor league season at Double-A, where he played 56 games. In that minor league stint, Mead hit .305/.394/.548 while also producing solid power numbers with 10 round-trippers. Mead was also able to swipe six bags in that minor league stop. Once Mead was promoted to Triple-A he put up similar numbers but he was only there for 20 games. Mead could easily have hit for 10 home runs if he was there for 60 games. His stat line dropped a little bit which is to be expected but these numbers are encouraging for those of you who have Mead in your fantasy leagues. (Brett Cook)

19. Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies, (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 15)

Ryan is trending up in my opinion and although Mead and Baty are better long-term options as I look at the metrics, I would rather have McMahon over someone like Muncy, especially in a dynasty league. I guess I am saying that I would flip McMahon and Muncy. Yes, 100%, that is what I am saying and here is why; McMahon’s average exit velo, max exit velo, and hard-hit percentage all trumped Muncy’s. McMahon’s expected batting average is in the 51st percentile league-wide while Muncy’s is in the bottom five percentile league-wide. McMahon also has a better expected slugging percentage. There are areas that Muncy has a slight edge in and superior edge in regard to metrics but let’s also consider age, McMahon has time to mature into an even better hitter while Muncy could be experiencing a decline. (Brett Cook)

20. Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox, (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 7)

It is put up or shut up time for Moncada in my opinion. Last year he played in over a hundred games and finished with a .212 batting average. Moncada struggled in many areas of metric, with over half of the following being below fifty percent; average exit velo, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, k%, walk percentage, and whiff percentage. It seems like Yoan’s productive 2021 is what is helping justification of Yoan at this spot. There wasn’t much to fall in love with in Yoan last year, and you may be on the fence about what to do with him in your dynasty leagues this year. I am not buying in on Moncada improving but take that with a grain of salt. (Brett Cook)

21. Luis Urias, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 19 at SS)

Long considered a prospect with a plus hit tool, Urias has made his mark in the major leagues as a guy who can play multiple positions (3B, SS, 2B) and provide average to above-average power. The transformation seems purposeful, as Urias has increased his fly ball rates three consecutive seasons while also lowering his ground ball rates. The downside of putting more balls in the air with a modest hard-hit rate is a low BABIP, which is consistently below .290 for Urias, but double-digit walk rates mean he doesn’t hurt you in OBP leagues. There’s not much speed to speak of, but Urias offers enough to be a valuable MI/CI option for competitive teams. (Ken Balderston)

22. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 41 at 1B)

It never ceases to amaze me how the Rays consistently get the most out of their players, without necessarily lighting up the stat sheet. With only 9 home runs and 3 steals last season, Diaz managed to become a 3.5 WAR player thanks to a .296 average (good for 16th in baseball). He also walked 30% more than he struck out, meaning he also came in 5th in baseball in OBP. Given there’s not much power (.127 ISO) we’ll need to temper R + RBI expectations, but if you’re falling behind in OBP, Diaz is a cheap addition to help you catch up. (Ken Balderston)

23. Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 44 at 2B)

It was a wild ride for Paredes, who was surprisingly traded to the Rays for Austin Meadows days before the 2022 season began. He was called up in late May but really caught fire hitting 8 home runs in June, with a .271/.362/.712 triple slash in only 69 plate appearances. Even outside his hot month of June, Paredes’ pace was for a 25-home run season, with a .181 ISO. While strikeouts have never been a big concern, Isaac tends to either hit the ball in the air or on the ground, meaning his BABIP tends to be low. He offsets the problem with double-digit walk rates and should settle as a near-league average OBP guy. (Ken Balderston)

24. Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 8)

Injuries have derailed what was a very successful career for Rendon, whose 162-game average over his 10-year career is still 96 R, 24 HR, 96 RBI, 7 SB, & a .285/.368/.480 triple slash. The injuries have held Rendon to only 105 games played the last two seasons, including time due to a wrist issue, illness, hip, triceps, knee, and groin. On one hand, nothing seems to be chronic or recurring, but on the other, Anthony seems to be banged up quite often. The good news is he’s still only 32 years old as of opening day, and with good fortune, he’s still able to put up impressive stats while on the field. The Angels and fantasy owners are hoping to see that happen in 2023.

25. Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 27)

A 4th round pick of the 2020 FYPD, the Orioles were able to sign Mayo to a well-over-slot deal after saving some money by drafting Heston Kjerstad 2nd overall. Coby’s a large-framed, 6’5” 215lb slugger but athletic enough to be at least an average defender. Until reaching AA as a 20-year-old last season, Mayo was consistently putting up .200+ ISOs at each minor league stop, despite consistently being young for the level. He has an aggressive swing with the intent to hit the ball in the air or on a line and looks to pull the ball when he can. His plate discipline seemed to take a step back last year but was palatable until he was stretched to AA, a level he’s likely to repeat to start the year. Coby may get lost in a rich Orioles system, and some might wonder how they’ll get him into the lineup. If Coby can hit at the upper level like he’s shown in the minors, the Orioles will be happy to find him a place. (Ken Balderston)

26. Josh Rojas, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 34 at 2B)

Josh has been a bit of an under-the-radar player the last two years, getting playing time all over the diamond in 2022, and paying a bit of 2B but mostly 3B last year. While never hurting your average Rojas offers double-digit power potential and last season stole 23 bases. Josh manages to walk over 10% of the time with a modest 20% strikeout rate, so he’s helping himself with his approach. He’s now 29 years old, so it’s difficult to predict a breakout, but there’s some stability with a player like Rojas. That might be an under-the-radar fantasy offering, especially in deeper leagues.

27. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

Christian was generally not on the radar of prospect hounds heading into 2022, but he got off to a very hot start hitting 20 home runs in A+ ball in only 74 games prompting a promotion in mid-July. Encarnacion-Strand continued at a similar pace before being dealt to the Reds in the Tyler Mahle deal. After the trade, his stats fell a bit but were still impressive with a .309/.351/.522 rate and finished the year with 32 home runs in only 122 games. He seemingly has little else to prove at AA, so a promotion to AAA to begin the year is likely, after which he’s only a hop skip, and a jump from a big league promotion. What a difference a year makes. (Ken Balderston)

28. Jon Berti, Miami Marlins (Age: 33, Previous Rank: NR)

In today’s game, stolen bases can be one of the hardest categories to find as Major league teams just aren’t running like it’s 1975 anymore, and Berti led baseball in this category despite playing in only 102 games. So why is he ranked #28 on our list? Major league teams don’t value a stolen base like they used to, and not nearly as much as fantasy owners. Jon offers almost nothing in the way of power and is only an average defender, so he profiles as a bit of a utility player rather than a league leader. It’s safe to wonder if he can repeat the 358 at-bats he saw last year, and at 33 it’s also safe to wonder if he can maintain his 97th-percentile sprint speed. If you need steals, Berti is an affordable way to get some, but beware of the risk and the other categories he’s returning negative value in as well. (Ken Balderston)

29. DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 16 at 2B)

Another player who qualifies at multiple positions, LeMahieu has spent time at 1B, 2B, and 3B.. The problem is, the power LeMahieu showed the first two years after signing with the Yankees, has fallen off by about .100 points of ISO. What was a .330+ batting average, has now become a .265 average in the last two seasons. On the positive side DJ has started walking more, but with a hard hit now below 30% and a growing groundball rate, it’s safe to be skeptical LeMahieu will ever win another silver slugger award. He did win a gold glove last year and should be an everyday player even if he doesn’t have a permanent defensive home. DJ is a safe play who likely won’t hurt your team, but his days of pushing your team toward a title are likely behind him. (Ken Balderston)

30. Brandon Drury, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Age: 30, Previous Rank: NR)

How big of a surprise was Brandon Drury’s 2022 season? Prior to last year, Drury had over 1,700 career plate appearances across seven seasons with four different teams. His career bWAR from that time was -.06. His 2022 bWAR was 2.6. Drury was able to outpace his career OBP by .024 points, and his career SLG by .077, hitting 28 homers on the year in only 138 games. Needless to say, there’s reason to doubt the sudden increase in power is sustainable. He didn’t have a spike in his hard-hit rate, and his groundball and flyball rates were in line with career norms. Simply put the underlying numbers don’t hint that there should have been so much production, and that doubt is reflected in our ranking. (Ken Balderston)

The Author

Ken Balderston

Ken Balderston

20+ years of fantasy baseball experience & currently only playing in dynasty leagues. Christian, proud father of 3, husband to the strongest woman in the world, accountant, golfer, cook.

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