Outfield is the sexy position. Think of the all-time greats: Mays, Ruth, Aaron, Clemente, Griffey, Bonds, Trout…all of them play(ed) outfield. Right now, is there a group of players with as much potential to yield Hall-of-Famers as this current one? Most of the top are under 25, so it is hard to look 15 years in the future, but the upside potential is tremendous.  The battle for #1 Dynasty OF was a fight for sure, but this guy earned it.

It shocked most of us when Soto was traded; now he seems headed for free agency and a possible $500 million contract, but none of that matters for fantasy, it’s just fun to think about. He takes walks better than anyone in the league, and that is why in OBP leagues he gets the big bounce; an OBP over .400 is his floor, even in a supposed “down” 2022. The Padres should get him to at least 180 Runs + RBI and with that 30 homers and 10 steals seem to be a solid floor for the next decade or so. Soto will play the entire 2023 season as a 24-year-old, so who knows how much more he could improve. The lack of steals are the only thing keeping him behind the others (in my personal rankings), but I couldn’t fault anyone for taking him #1 overall. (Phil Barrington)

2. Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 2)

Acuña started his career on fire, and has been a consensus top-5 Dynasty pick since 2019. After a 2022 season that saw him get 533 plate appearances, coming off the torn ACL injury he suffered not even a year earlier; he had a peak and valley type season. May and June were strong, July dipped, then a return to form in August, before sputtering the last month of the season. Still, 29 steals and 15 homers later, while slashing a respectable .266/.351/.413 is nothing to scoff at. Coming back from that type of injury, it is hard to complain about those numbers; nobody that drafted him last year should have expected anything more (that’s for the haters). His power was down last season, no doubt about it. Acuña’s ISO in 2020 was .302, followed by a .311 in 2021; his .148 mark last season was easily a career low. His statcast page is full of red and, fully healthy heading into 2023, Acuña is still a dynasty team cornerstone. (Phil Barrington)

3. Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 9)

We haven’t seen a rookie come out of the gate showing this much speed and power in the outfield since Acuna in 2018, and it is readily apparent how special Rodríguez is. Coming off a Rookie of the Year season, just missing 30/30 by one home run (29/33), he has Mariners fans excited, for good reason. Rodríguez only played 46 games above Single-A, and that was in 2021 at Double-A. He just posted a 146 wRC+ in his first season and can improve. A 26% K rate was way higher than any mark in the minors and his walk rate has some room to grow as well. If you are worried about Acuña’s injuries, or Soto’s lack of steals, making Julio the first OF off the board in a start-up Dynasty league wouldn’t bother me at all. The sky is truly the limit, and I hope we see both him and Acuña put up a 40/40 season someday. It just doesn’t sit right with me that it has been 17 years since Alfonso Soriano joined the four-player club, even though guys have come close. (Phil Barrington)

4. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 8)

Alvarez dealt with inflammation and soreness in his right hand during 2022; first injuring it in June, going on the DL for it July 10^th, returning and having an abysmal August. He ended September on a hot streak; then had a barely above-average playoff showing (103 wRC+). An offseason of rest should hopefully clear up any hand issues; it really is the knees that give us pause. Double knee surgery at age 23 is quite worrisome and kept him out a vast majority of the 2020 season.

Besides the above-mentioned hand injury, Alvarez played 144 games in 2021 and 135 last season. What he does in 135 games is what most guys don’t do in 155 games. He walks at an elite rate, strikes out less than 20% of the time, can hit 35+ home runs and slash 275/380/560 with ease. There are no steals for Yordan, so that puts him behind the other three…but as a pure hitter? He’s the top, with 100% percentile in six (6!?!) categories tracked on baseball savant; have you ever seen more 100 percentile marks on a guys’ page?

There’s no sell high with Alvarez, it’s keep and be very, very happy. (Phil Barrington)

5. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 10)

Unless living under a rock, we all know Judge had a monster 2022 and just signed a huge free agent deal to remain on the Yankees. A guy who can hit 62 homers when power was supposedly suppressed (though we recently learned that MLB used three -count em, 3- different baseballs in 2022 and the Yankees may have benefited “most”) should be penciled in for 40 minimum for the next few seasons. Judge was the number one player on my personal rankings; because, regardless of what baseballs they use, he still has a high floor coupled with a very high ceiling (like his 2017 and 2022 seasons). I can understand the appeal of the younger guys on this list, but if you wind up with Judge as your #1 OF, don’t be too disappointed. (Phil Barrington)

6. Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 6)

If, in 2023, Julio Rodriguez goes 71/30/107/25 while slashing .257/.330/.478 will we be disappointed? We shouldn’t be (some might) but that was Tucker’s 2022 season line, good for 13^th overall on the Razzball player rater. Tucker even was a bit unlucky with a BABIP of .261 that led to the lower slash line; if his prior season’s line of .304 can return, a better slash line and more counting stats should come with it. We are talking about a guy who has walked less than 16% of the time his first two full major league seasons, with two straight 30 home run seasons, and even increased his steals from 14 in 2021 to 25 in 2022. Take that every day of the week.

It does feel a bit weird ranking him ahead of Betts, Trout, and Harper, but Tucker isn’t even into the typical prime years (27-30), so the needle is still pointing upward. Can he go 30/30 in 2023 with the new rules? I wouldn’t rule it out. Tucker is safe and steady, bringing five-category production in a great lineup and home park. He made the All-Star team for the first time in 2022, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in the next one, or eight. (Phil Barrington)

7. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 5)

Betts, along with the next two guys, are on the way to the Hall of Fame, but they are all young enough to be productive for at least 3-5 more seasons. While they are all being faded for being over age 30 (and with Trout and Harper moreso, injuries), they represent a great value to acquire (or draft below ADP) in Dynasty leagues (and start-ups).

Betts is coming off a 117/35/82/12 season, with a slash line of .269/.340/.533, good for 8^th on the overall Razzball player rater for 2022. It is the fourth-best season (measured by offensive WAR) of Betts’ career. If we want to nitpick, he had the lowest OBP of his career, and with that only an 8.6% walk rate. Expect that to get back to the 12% range, and an improvement in OBP. Those 35 homers last season were a career-high, so maybe 25+ is a more reasonable expectation, while 180+ Runs + RBI and 10 steals slot very nicely as a #1 OF. (Phil Barrington)

8. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 4)

I wrote about Harper a lot back in the Triple Play Phillies post, so if you have time, read that and come back; not to repeat too much, but I’m a big fan, especially in OBP leagues (which is the stat we are using for these rankings). Now he has Trea Turner hitting leadoff, sign me up. Thumb surgery last June from a hit by pitch in June made him miss two months, but he still returned and led the Phillies to a World Series appearance. Tommy John surgery in November will keep him out until the All-Star break, more or less. Before last season, he was healthy for years. I’m not worried. In a start up I caution patience, however, since you would not get full value for Harper until season two, and I always want to win right away in a startup, just in case it doesn’t last beyond a couple of years, which, while rare, does happen. (Phil Barrington)

9. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 3)

What can this guy do in 119 games is even more impressive than what Yordan did in 133. 40 homers and a slash of .283/.369/.630 showed off power we hadn’t seen in a few years from the Millville Meteor. Injuries are still way too prevalent for many of our tastes, but on a game-by-game basis, Trout still has no equal. Health and the lack of steals (only four the last three seasons combined) has dropped him in Dynasty league rankings. Ohtani makes DH at-bats hard to come by, so unfortunately Trout doesn’t have that outlet to avoid playing centerfield most days. I think the risk is worth the reward, but your risk tolerance may not be as high. (Phil Barrington)

10. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 31)

For start-up Dynasty leagues, I want at least two of the above group. After that, it gets more speculative, and I would rather avoid the cost of the next group and dig for diamonds later. That isn’t a dig at Carroll or Randy or any of the others, I just would not go out of my way to draft them at present value in a startup one.

If you have Carroll already, it is doubtful you are trading him for anything less than one of the guys above him on this list. Carroll won USA TODAY Sports’ Minor League Player of the Year award in 2022, and sits atop many top prospect lists heading into the 2023 season. He even made his major league debut, appearing in 32 games and holding his own, with a .330 OBP, four homers, and a couple steals.

Carroll hasn’t even played a full season over his minor league career since being drafted 16^th overall back in 2019; Covid canceled his 2020 and a shoulder surgery ended his 2021 prematurely after only seven games. It is well within the realm of possibilities that Carroll struggles, even early on, but I say stay the course. He has speed and power, good walk rates, strikes out a bit more than we would like, but that’s a bit nitpicky. The Diamondbacks should let him hit third, set it and forget it, for a decade. (Phil Barrington)