Welcome back! We got a late start this year, but we will kick off our positional rankings with the top dynasty quarterback rankings. Not much else to say except players within tiers are interchangeable and rankings within tiers represent nothing more than a mix of personal preference and pressure toward the consensus. Sorry for the lack of photos; they’re a pain in the butt to format on lists like this and you know what they all look like anyway. Deshaun Watson isn’t ranked because a) I didn’t feel like including him and b) We don’t know what he’ll look like after nearly two years off, but if he returns to form his skills would land him in Tier Two.

TIER ONE

 

1. Josh Allen, Buffalo (26)

It’s incredible that he actually got here. His passing is stupendous (even in the preseason!) and his aggressive and effective running, for someone his size, sets him apart. I finally have no fear about him reverting to pre-2020 Allen. He is a true 1-of-1, developmentally, and out of all running quarterbacks he’s the last one I’m worried about, physically, to keep it going. His advantage here should last for about five more years, but as long as it does the added value is just overwhelming. His floor is so high it’s incredible. That said, if you took either of the next two guys over him I would not blame you. The tiers are not a joke. The players within them are truly interchangeable.

2. Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers (24)

I think that after this year there’s a good chance Herbert is the consensus No. 1 player in superflex. Every year of usage figures to notably lower Allen’s value in the running game over the long term and this whole tier is very close to start. Allen will be a great pocket-ish-only passer, but will he be as good a pocket-ish passer as Justin Herbert? My educated guess is: probably not. Factor in that there isn’t much tread on Herbert’s tires, whereas Allen and the next guy played another half season or so in the playoffs. TL;DR: Herbert the most obvious among the top three where the truly best is yet to come.

3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City (26; 27 in September)

He’s Patrick Mahomes. He is plainly going to the Hall of Fame and it’s still incredibly early. This year could be weird, is all. Befitting his Tier 1 status, he could also–easily–be atop the list next season. There’s just a little uncertainty here, but it’s warranted now that Tyreek Hill is out of the picture, but even after all that he’s a fine No. 1 overall pick in a startup. 

TIER TWO

4. Lamar Jackson (25)

From the outside, this situation is far messier than it should be. The Ravens are reluctant to commit to Jackson and it’s sort of baffling why not, except for the inherent risk in having a running quarterback… but even three years removed from his MVP season, and even with injury perpetually knocking at the door, he’s still just an incredible talent. It is very easy to forget his good games are, and it’s unwise to take them for granted.

5. Joe Burrow (25)

Only one person will win your league in a given year. Statistically speaking, it probably won’t be you. If you’re going to lose, lose with swag. Take Burrow. You might not even lose!

6. Trevor Lawrence (22)

Throw last year in the trash. If Urban Meyer did anything good, it was to enable us dynasty fiends to scoop up Lawrence at a discount. As has been noted ad infinitum, Peyton Manning’s first year was awful too, and he didn’t have Urban. Lawrence may not be Manning, but he will be a dude, and fast. 

7. Kyler Murray (25)

For any number of reasons I never expect Murray to be the No. 1 quarterback in dynasty. I can’t see him being lower than this either. He’s born to float between No. 3 and No. 8; he’s too small and too short to get to No. 1 and too fast and has too good an arm to fall any further. Mazel Tov if you disagree and I’d strongly suggest scooping him up right now because he can squash an offseason’s worth of bad press with one good game.

TIER THREE

8. Trey Lance (22)

We’re out of the realm of “sure things over the next five years” and into speculation. Obviously’s upside is just phenomenal on situation alone. Kyle Shanahan will get the most out of Lance (unless he drafts a fifth round QB and decides he likes him more), and Lance’s skill set meshes, in theory, with Shanahan’s system quite well. This ranking is basically a hedge between “It does and he’s top 5” and “He doesn’t and he’s still top 15.” I would be shocked if he was in this range next year. 

9. Jalen Hurts (24)

This ranking surprises me, and I’m the one writing it. But ultimately the situation and Hurts’s rushing ability are too exciting to pass up in the short term and Hurts’s core skills should keep him at least relevant for the near-enough future. If it wasn’t clear, the top of this list whipsaws between pocket-ish passers and running quarterbacks… and this is the end of a running QB group.

10. Dak Prescott (29)

Underrate Dak at your own peril. Maybe you hate the Cowboys, fine, but Dak is going to do numbers every year he stays healthy. He’s got a decade of open field ahead of him, so to speak. I recommend embracing this, even if the receiving corps is in a rut right now. If these rankings were only for this year I’d have him lower, but his game is built to last. The arm isn’t going anywhere.

11. Russell Wilson (33)

I hope this year will be a surprising disaster (because I detest the Broncos), but in the better-case scenarios Wilson goes nuts. 

12. Matt Stafford (34)

He’s the new late-prime Ben Roethlisberger. This is a compliment. He’s gonna be real good every year for longer than you suspect, like Ben was, albeit infinitely less loathsome. 

13. Aaron Rodgers (38)

What am I going to say that hasn’t been said?

TIER FOUR

14. Derek Carr (31)

I’m a little nervous about Las Vegas’s offensive line but he has one of the better receiving groups I’ve ever seen and he plays “up,” so to speak. Beloved by everyone on the Raiders to an astounding degree, which is just an interesting side note.

15. Kirk Cousins (34)

Cousins was born to win and lose fantasy football championships. At this ranking, you might as well try your luck on “win.”

16. Jameis Winston (27)

While his 30/30 year will forever be a source of amusement, this is the defining season of Jameis’s career. I think it’ll be good enough to keep him in New Orleans, racking up points on the turf with the inevitable bad game thrown in. 

17. Mac Jones (23)

He completes passes. He will always complete passes. He’ll never be a top-5 dynasty quarterback and he’ll never be lower than this. He’s about as safe as they come, but the ceiling is limited.

18. Kenny Pickett (24)

Preseason has convinced me. The weapons are good enough and the skills decent enough to see him starting sooner rather than later. Just how good he’ll be is TBD, but he’s got a Mac Jones-like skillset (minus processing time) with a considerably better receiving corps.

19. Daniel Jones (25)

I actually expect good things out of Danny Dimes this year, but I’m also a Kadarius Toney truther, it’s possible I’ve been compromised. That said, Dimes guy can scoot, so he’ll get some nice rushing numbers (though potentially fewer with a healthy Saquon Barkley for however long that lasts) on what figures to be terrible Giants team. The murky future doesn’t help.

TIER FIVE

20. Justin Fields (23)

He’s got the talent but that’s all he has, and Chicago’s decrepitude is obscuring any real glimmer of hope I see here. It sucks!

21. Tom Brady (629)

Incredibly weird to have to think about something like “Justin Fields vs. Tom Brady” in dynasty because it’s 100 percent context dependent. In redraft Brady is near the top of the table, which is awesome, but the trade value is effectively zero.

22. Tua Tagovailoa (24)

The Mike McDaniel YAC machine is Tua’s clearest path to fantasy relevance. 

23. Matt Ryan (37)

As with Brady, it’s all context-dependent. A fantastic $1 redraft pick.

24. Baker Mayfield (27)

I can see it working just well enough to for Mayfield to be useable in fantasy and real football for the next few years.

25. Jared Goff (27)

Detroit could put up sneaky passing numbers this year.

26. Zach Wilson (23)

This is purely based on perceived value, which I think is the only long-term value Wilson has. 

27. Ryan Tannehill (34)

There’s not a ton to like here, but the floor is decent.

TIER SEVEN

28. Desmond Ridder (22)

A few good preseason throws, and I’m sure he’ll get a chance this year. I’m bullish at the price

29. Davis Mills (23)

30. Marcus Mariota (28)

31. Malik Willis (23)

32. Carson Wentz (29)

I’d rather die.

33. Jacoby Brissett (29)

34. Geno Smith (31)

35. Jimmy Garoppolo (30)

36. Tyrod Taylor (33)

37. Drew Lock (25)

Don’t draft him.

38. Sam Darnold (25)

Him either.

The rest, including Mitchell Trubisky (38) and Taylor Heinecke (29): Go crazy.