The Triple Play is back for a fifth season! This regular feature is broken down by senior writer Phil Barrington and he is joined by a rotating panel of some of the best Dynasty Baseball writers in the business. If you’re new to the Triple Play, this series breaks down an arm, a bat, and a prospect within each organization for your reading pleasure!

Follow Phil (@barrington_phil), Ben Sanders (@HPBenSanders) Jason Giumara (@JayGrutgers), and Ryan Felix Fernandes (@RyanFelixFerna1) on Twitter and read their analysis here at the 

Jeremy Pena, Age: 24, Position: SS

Analysis by: Ben Sanders

Clearly I remember picking on the boy

Jeremy Pena was on a TDG dynasty roster I inherited in 2021, and at the time I wasn’t very impressed with him. He was already 23, his numbers in the low minors didn’t really jump out, and scouting reports praised his glove much more than his bat. I was planning to hang on to him for at least a little bit, but when he had wrist surgery just prior to the start of the 2021 season and was in danger of missing the entire campaign, that was it. I dropped him and move on. Pena did not miss the whole season, however. He returned in August, and from that point on he’s done nothing but make me feel stupid for cutting him.

But we unleashed the lion

Pena posted a .247/.346/.598 line in AAA last season, with ten home runs and five steals in just 30 games. He impressed the Astros enough that they let Carlos Correa leave in free agency and didn’t pursue another big-name shortstop. Pena took the job this spring and is hitting .252/.299/.443 with 15 home runs, six steals, 43 runs and 38 RBIs through 81 games. Pair that with his elite defense and he’s been worth 2.5 fWAR already this season.

It’s a very good start, but there’s plenty of room for improvement. Plate discipline hasn’t been Pena’s strong suit, with a 5.1% K-rate and 24.7% BB-rate. Those numbers are actually better than the 4.5 K% and 26.3 BB% he put up last season at AA. He has a 40% whiff rate against both breaking pitches and offspeed stuff, though he does have seven home runs off breakers.

King Jeremy

Pena’s plate discipline is a little troubling, and there is some risk he could fall off a cliff like Rougned Odor or Keston Hiura. Neither of those guys have his glove skills, though, and his defense will allow him every opportunity to work through any struggles at the plate. He’s also in one of the best fantasy situations in baseball, as Houston provides a hitter-friendly park, stacked lineup, and strong reputation for developing hitters. Pena also has 95^th percentile sprint speed, so there’s upside for a lot more stolen bases in the future.

Pena’s value is soaring right now, and I’ve seen him as high as No. 66 in midseason dynasty rankings. That’s higher than I’d personally rank him — just outside the top 100 seems about right to me — so it may not be the best time to target him in a trade. But if he starts to slump sometime this year or next, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to check in on his value. The potential is there for Pena to be a five-category producer for a long time.

Luis Garcia, Age: 25, Position: SP

Analysis by: Jason Giumara

Like the Tampa Bay Rays, the Houston Astros know how to develop pitching. They have a strong eye for identifying talent from other teams as well as developing their own from within the minor leagues. Luis Garcia is one of those talented Astros pitchers who would be a headline name and a franchise player if he played for a less competitive team. 

WHO ARE YOU?

Born in Venezuela, Garcia was drafted by the Astros in the 2017 J2 International Draft. Over his two years in the Houston minor league system, the right hander posted mixed results. The Astros bounced Garcia back and forth as a starter and reliever. The Astros decided to give Garcia a shot in the COVID shortened 2020 season without having pitched above High-A. The most memorable moment in Garcia’s rookie campaign was a solid two innings in relief to win Game 5 of the ALCS against the Rays. 

In Garcia’s first full season with the Astros he posted outstanding numbers including a 1.13 WHIP and a 9.7% K/9. He fell just short of winning Rookie of the Year in 2021 with Randy Arozarena winning those honors. Up to this point, Garcia has lived up to his first full rookie season and continues to dominate hitters. Garcia predominantly relies on a 4-seam fastball and cutter to mow down hitters. However, he has also shown promising secondary pitches including a changeup, curveball and slider. 

A CLOSE LOOK AT THE NUMBERS

His underlying metrics are just as impressive as his stat line. While Garcia doesn’t throw particularly hard, he is great at generating strikeouts with his excellent spin rate. Statcast data has Garcia’s Fastball Spin rate at 81% and his Whiff Rate at 74%. In addition he has shown the ability to adjust with the league making steady progress with his Barrell percentage while lowering his walk rate over the past two seasons. All these are encouraging indicators that not only suggest that Garcia is holding his own, but is getting better. 

Some may knock Garcia’s endurance as he has only pitched into the seventh inning twice this year. However, each outing he consistently allows less walks and hits than innings pitched which keeps his WHIP close to 1.00. A fantasy owner that pairs Garcia with strong relievers would gain strong ratios without compromising the strikeouts. 

GO GET HIM…. JUST MAKE SURE YOU TRADE FOR THE RIGHT ONE

At the time he came up with the Astros there were several other Luis Garcia’s in the league, including the Nationals current second baseman and a former top Phillies prospect that never panned out. Therefore dynasty owners may have been able to snag him amongst the name confusion. He is most certainly rostered now, but is a young future star pitcher to target in trades. Just make sure you trade for the right Luis Garcia.

PEDRO LEON, AGE 24, POSITION: OF/SS, TRIPLE-A LEVEL

Analysis by: Ryan Felix Fernandes

With Houston losing a couple of first round picks in back-to-back years (2020 and 2021) accompanied with a number of their top homegrown prospects from the last couple of years graduating to the major league level (All-Star talents) like Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez (Yes.. I know he was originally with the Dodgers organization in 2016. I fact check on Wikipedia too!) and Kyle Tucker. While other top level prospects were part of trades for playoff runs (Verlander, Grienke, Graveman, and Pressly trades) the last six years. It felt like I had slim pickings to pick a prospect to key on from their farm system to rave about or get you excited for. Don’t get me wrong they have Hunter Brown and Korey Lee but, I’m guessing 99% of you reading this already know about them. They have a ghost from prospects past in Forrest Whitely who hopefully has all his injuries behind him and can fulfill what many of us thought would be a great major league career. But I wanted to focus on someone who maybe not everyone knew about or at least might have overlooked.

In my search I kept gravitating toward Pedro Leon who many tabbed as the next great Cuban player to make a huge splash in the majors. He is not an unknown prospect by any means, but because he hasn’t torn up the minor leagues some of you might have moved on and dropped him from your fantasy teams so I’m here to possibly sway you back into being a believer in Leon.  If you aren’t familiar with Leon, he defected from Cuba back in 2019. Before he defected he showed out in Cuba’s top league, Serie Nacional with flashes of raw power, a cannon for an arm, top of the order speed, and an ability to drive the ball all over the field. When he made his way to the states he and the Astros agreed to delay his signing until January of 2021 so he could receive the biggest bonus of the signing period at four million dollars. His signing at the time was considered by Astros brass as the equivalent of the two lost first round picks I brought up earlier due to an issue that has been spoken about to nausea that I won’t get into *COUGH* They cheated! *COUGH* They banged garbage cans to tip pitches! *COUGH* Altuve wore a buzzer! *COUGH* Check the tape! *COUGH* 

Ok you can frame the coughs any way you want. It didn’t impact what I talked about. You need to know I’m very shy and my wife will be angry if I keep talking about it. So I am going to show some remorse and am determined to move forward. Also, I don’t want to bring this up but, I also got a bad tattoo on my collarbone so I am going to ask you not to rip off my shirt to celebrate this commentary. 

Don’t be a Le(m)on Head

With the numbers Leon has put up since his signing many of you will think he hasn’t lived up to expectations with a cumulative average of .228 and striking out at a 30% clip since debuting in the minors. But, the Astros did him no favors by having him start his minor league career in Double-A, had him switch positions from SS to CF, and on top of that he missed two months due to a broken pinky. Even with all of those speedbumps Leon still was asked to be part of the Futures game last year and the Astros felt he showed enough potential and promise to be promoted to Triple-A before this season started.  With fans and many organizations expecting prospects who have helium type hype and a pedigree like Leon to dominate wherever they play and be in the major leagues within two years or be considered a bust or a lemon.

The Astros really need to show patience (to their credit they are known to do with their prospects) and let Leon continue to develop as a hitter for the rest of the season in the minors because of one glaring statistic: his strikeout rate per plate appearance. Even though it has gotten a bit better and Leon does show patience at the plate. He still strikes out quite a lot for a hitter of his caliber as fellow guru Aaron Cumming hit on the nose with his analysis of Leon back in February (Leon was ranked 85th on the TDG dynasty outfielders before the season started):

Leon struggled with strikeouts all year, but otherwise showed a terrific all-around game. His walk rate and on-base percentage were upper echelon, and he flashed both power and speed everywhere he played. With his defensive options being the most vulnerable for the Astros on the major league roster, I think there’s a good chance that we could see Leon making an impact in Houston fairly soon. (Aaron Cumming)

With more at-bats Leon still has maintained his walk rate, has bettered his OBP from .339 to .373 while his OPS jumped up dramatically to .827 from .708 from last season against better competition. His 70-grade speed isn’t only for show as he also increased his stolen bases to 31 from 18 so far this season. There is no question Leon will be an upgrade at CF right now for the Astros. So far this season they had a platoon until Jake Meyers came back from injury and a month ago they acquired Maurico Dubon to play CF as well.The Astros have lacked production at CF since George Springer left via free agency in 2021.

Unless management can find a bridge player before the trade deadline they are, in all likelihood, calling up Leon this season. Don’t get me wrong, I think Leon can succeed in the majors. I just don’t want Leon who has only played 156 games with slightly over 500 at bats in his professional baseball career might lose his confidence if he gets outmatched this season being rushed too soon and have similar results like a player with a similar skill set in Jarred Kelenic (who played in 203 games in the minors with 894 at bats and far better numbers in the minors compared to Leon).

Leon has the potential to be a 30/30 player in the next three years and be part of the best fantasy (offense) outfield maybe ever with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. If he continues to adjust to better competition and cut down his strikeouts (yes like any baseball player ever) he will be part of the next core of *COUGH* Asterisk Astros *COUGH* to compete for a World Series.