The Triple Play is back for a fifth season! This regular feature is broken down by senior writer Phil Barrington and he is joined by a rotating panel of some of the best Dynasty Baseball writers in the business. If you’re new to the Triple Play, this series breaks down an arm, a bat, and a prospect within each organization for your reading pleasure!

Follow Phil (@barrington_phil), Ben Sanders (@HPBenSanders), and Colin Coulahan (@cjc07) on Twitter and read their analysis here at the site!

Cody Bellinger, Age: 26, Position: OF

Analysis by: Colin Coulahan

Cody Bellinger was one of the most disappointing fantasy players in 2021. Expectations were high heading into the year. He was a 25-year-old former MVP, had just won a World Series, and was a consensus top-10 dynasty player. By the end of the season, Bellinger had only mustered a .240 OBP, .237 wOBA, and a career-high 27% strikeout rate. His power just seemed to disappear as he hit career lows in max exit velocity and average exit velocity and his counting stats suffered for it; 13 home runs, 39 runs, and 36 RBI. What’s gone wrong?  Is there hope for a rebound?

Juuuuuuust A Bit Outside

As of this writing, we’re about halfway through the 2022 campaign and it’s more of the same. Bellinger’s K% is a new career-worst at 30%, his .208 OBP & .284 wOBA are poor and his exit velocity numbers are still at the same lows as last year. 

Bellinger has lost almost all of his plate discipline. His O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung outside of the strike zone) has been going up. This year his O-Swing% has reached a career-worst 35.3% and unsurprisingly he’s also striking out at a career-worst rate of 30%. Bellinger has also had problems with fastballs, specifically high heat.  Since 2021 he’s recorded Whiff rates of about 30% against fastballs thrown high in the zone. The quality of contact has also been poor, as he’s only produced a measly .170 .xwOBA against the pitch.

M.A.S.H. Unit

Just within the past two years, he’s had shoulder surgery, a hairline fracture in his leg, a groin strain, and a hamstring issue.  It’s likely that the time missed while nursing these injuries and possibly trying to play through some of them could have hurt his performance. Bellinger has also tinkered with his swing several times since 2020. 

Whatever changes he made have not worked. He is just not hitting the ball with any authority.  His .300 xwOBA this year is below average and his 91.5 fly ball and line drive exit velocity is a career-worst. One thing that stands out is his launch angle. It’s been raised about six degrees the last two years, so it’s possible that he’s trying to uppercut the ball, which has led to an increase of infield pop-ups.

All of these reasons plus his current performance could make owners cut and run. Let him be someone else’s problem. And honestly, you would be right to do so as there isn’t much in his profile that suggests a rebound.

Patience Is a Virtue

Despite all of the poor results, Cody Bellinger has not simply become a bad baseball player. He’s shown the skills to be a great hitter and once you show a skill, you own it. Hopefully, after a full, normal off-season where he’s not dealing with COVID shutdowns, lockouts, or rehabbing an injury he can get away from the game for a bit and get back to his regular routine. Plus another year removed from shoulder surgery can only be a good thing. 

If you’re rebuilding a dynasty team I think this is a great time to try and trade for him. I’m sure any contender would be glad to move on from him for anything that can help them now. And the best investments in fantasy baseball come from acquiring players coming out of down years.  If you currently roster Bellinger, you just have to give him some more time. If you don’t roster him, buy the dip.

Julio Urias, Age: 26, Position: SP

Analysis by: Phil Barrington

Birthday boy Julio Urias just turned 26-years-old, and is one of the stud pitchers for the Dodgers, but with a sub 10 K/9 rate, he seems to get left behind in the third or fourth tier of MLB starters (at least by one of my favorite pitching focused websites). I think that’s partly due to the quality of MLB starters this season, but that doesn’t mean we Dynasty managers should take him for granted, though high expectations and MLB debuts at age 19 can do that to a player.

99 Miles from LA

Mexico has produced its fair share of good MLB pitchers, culminating with the best, ex-Dodger Fernando Valenzuela, but also solid MLB pitchers Esteban Loaiza, Yovani Gallardo, Teddy Higuera, Ismael Valdez, Joakim Soria, and Oliver Perez. He has the possibility of being the greatest Mexican-born pitcher when his career is all said and done.

Seems to me that we had been waiting on Julio for a long time for him to fulfill his considerable promise and that can be exhausting to fantasy managers who want all their players to come out the gate like Alex Manoah and Shane McClanahan, for example. Urias made his major league debut way back in 2016, pitching 77 innings of 3.39 ERA and a 9.82 K/9, and all our hearts were a flutter. Then his 2017 was ended prematurely by shoulder surgery that kept him out the rest of that season, and most of 2018 too.

I joined my first dynasty league (after playing only annual and keeper leagues for my first two decades of fantasy baseball) that year, and knew the Dodgers were going to handle him with kid gloves (which they did), so one of my first trades was to move him for Kyle Schwarber. For years that trade did not work in my favor (until last season that is) but when I was offered to re-acquire Julio straight up for Eloy Jimenez, I took the chance to bring him back, and he has paid dividends already.

Vuela Alto (Fly high)

This season, Urias is doing Urias things, throwing sick curves and sliders, and is the 21^st ranked pitcher on the Razzball Player Rater, with a 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, in 16 starts and he has given up three or more earned runs only four times, and two of those were in Colorado. He had a minor league K/9 of 10.55, and I think he has the capacity for even more as he ages and becomes a better pitcher; but even now, he’s near elite with a higher floor than most. Just look at his MLB career in percentile rankings; it’s redder than a tomato field.

Mal Acostumado (Badly used)

We could also ask of for the Dodgers to let him go six innings and help more in Quality Starts leagues. Even with those 20 wins last season, he had only 13 QS. But this season, of those aforementioned 16 starts, half (eight) have been the QS variety.

There was a domestic violence incident back in May 2019, that led Urias to get suspended for 20-games. He has kept his nose clean since, so while each case is different, it is up to you to decide if you want him on your team.

His fastball velocity is down this year, to 92.7 MPH, compared to 94 the prior two seasons, which leads to his lower K/9.  However looking a bit deeper, he is putting guys away with it at higher percentage (26% compared to 20% last season) and hitters are only batting .173 against it, compared to a .276 average against from last season. He is a veteran now, and continuing to evolve as a pitcher, and its bad news for MLB hitters.

Notwithstanding is his last start; a dud of one versus the hapless (wait, they have Ian Happ), how about, bad, Chicago Cubs. However, now may be the best time to inquire about his availability. Will he be as famous as the smooth singer Julio Iglesias? (his songs are the headers, fyi) Of course not, but don’t hold that against him; rather make him a target now and thank me later.

Andy Pages, Age: 21, Position: OF, Level: Double-A

Analysis by: Ben Sanders

¡Viva la flyball revolución!

Power is often the last part of a hitting prospect’s game to develop. That has not been the case for Andy Pages. The Cuban outfielder signed with the Dodgers in late 2017 and quickly went to work launching baseballs into the seats. He already has 75 home runs in his young career, roughly one every 18 plate appearances. He hit 19 in just 63 games at the Rookie level in 2019, then 31 more at High-A last season.

Pages’ home run totals are the result of big raw power and the extreme lift in his swing. In 2021, he had a flyball rate of 55.3%, and his 25-degree average launch angle was higher than anyone in MLB.

Well-read Pages

Pages has homered 15 times so far this season, with a .245/.352/.475 line. That may look mildly disappointing compared to his .265/.394/.539 slash from 2021, but there are some positive developments. The Dodgers have worked with him to simplify his swing and reduce his big leg kick.

He struggled early this season, hitting just .216 with two home runs through 28 games. He’s been much better since, slashing .261/.362/.550. The changes have helped him continue to cut his strikeout rate, which is at 22.6%, down from 24.5% last year and 28.3% in 2019. The extreme flyball tendency has also normalized a bit to a 43.6% rate.

Pages’ ability to adjust is no surprise to the Dodgers. Farm director Will Rhymes raved about him at spring training.

“It’s obviously impressive to see him play,” Rhymes said. “But it’s almost more impressive to talk to him — his understanding of hitting, just the intuition about it, how much he observes about other players. We just haven’t had very many players come through with that kind of baseball IQ.”

Welcome to The Show

Pages may not be one of the best baseball players in the world (yet), but he is one of the top baseball video gamers, at one point ranking in the top five at MLB: The Show. His success at the game isn’t just about fast fingers – he usually falls behind early while studying his opponents, then rallies once he has figured out their tendencies. It’s easy to see how that skill could translate well to real baseball.

The Dodgers aren’t known to rush prospects through the minors, so we may not see him in MLB until late next season or even 2024. I have high hopes once he gets there. At the very least he should hit for power, and there’s star potential if he continues to become more well-rounded.

I see Pages as a top-50 prospect and especially valuable in leagues that count OBP or OPS. He felt undervalued to me last season, but dynasty rankings seem to be catching up to his potential. Even though the chance to pick him up cheap may have passed, he’s still a player I’d target if he was on the trade block.