Dynasty BaseballScouting the Statline

Scout the Statline: Prospecting Rebranded

In this series, we highlight interesting high rising prospects, from the well-known to the lesser-known, based on our Peak Major League Equivalency projections.  Our approach is based entirely on statistical and trend analysis and we have developed an assortment of tools that can help you make dynasty baseball decisions. To view the Leaderboards, many updated on a daily or weekly basis, please visit our website scoutthestatline.com

Before I hop into the player highlights I want to share a couple changes to the series going forward. If you’re here solely for the player highlights, feel free to skip ahead! First, we’re rebranding “Scouting the Statline” to “Scout the Statline”. Not only is this a tad more direct, but it’s also a better-fitting parody of the “don’t scout the statline” moniker. Second, I’m introducing a new element to my player highlights, in many ways a revision of my pillars for hunting down the “Next Big Thing”. Rather than flatly stating whether or not I believe in a player’s data, I’m going to mark whether they check the boxes of what I look for: age/level, popping data, track record, approach, and stock.

How a player will receive a check for each category:

  • Age/Level – Young relative to his competition for the level he is playing at.
  • Approach – Low strikeout rate, high walk rate, and/or strong BB:K ratio.
  • Popping Data – Something in the data is unusually appealing.
  • Stock 📈 – This metric will evolve as I track past highlights. Is the player’s performance on the rise?
  • Track Record – Demonstrated history of success.

Player Highlights

 

Gunnar Henderson (SS, BAL-AA)

At this point, the 20 year old Henderson is looking like one of the league’s most improved minor league talents. Despite showing off solid power with a .476 SLG and nice speed with 16 steals across 3 levels in 2021, Henderson was also plagued by a 31% strikeout rate. In 2022, Henderson has shown dramatic improvement with his plate approach, walking 10 more times on the season than he has struck out, dropping his K rate down to 16%, while increasing his walk rate from 12% in 2021 to 22% in 2022. Those are dramatic improvements, and Henderson is looking like one of the most complete hitters in the minors with a .299/.457/.543 slash that looks entirely sustainable. In addition to his hitting, Henderson brings a healthy dose of speed to the table, having swiped 12 bases in 13 attempts. Henderson has become one of my new top tier targets for 2022, along with Tovar, Wood, Manzardo, and Amador.

✅ Age/Level 

✅ Approach 

✅ Popping Data 

✅ Stock 📈 

 

Jay Allen (OF, CIN-A)

Allen was the only teenager that I highlighted this preseason as a prospect to target. While the .779 OPS for the season doesn’t exactly scream top prospect, Allen has flashed quite a bit of speed on the season (16/20 in SB attempts). Most impressively, Allen has walked nearly as often as he has struck out, and sports a .410 OBP on the season. He debuted on our top projected prospects list at #5 overall, and rose two spots to #3 in last week’s update. If he is able to tap into his raw power (which seems almost inevitable), Allen will become a must-own fantasy asset.

✅ Age/Level 

✅ Approach

✅ Track Record 

 

Dru Baker (OF, TBR-A)

A Texas Tech product drafted by the Rays in the 4th round last year, Baker has been a hitting machine this season at Single-A, with a .370/.473/.533 slash. Baker was near the top of our 2022 prospect leaderboard for a couple weeks before finally cooling off some. While the power has been sparse (3 HR on the season), Baker has chipped in 17 stolen bases in 20 attempts. Unfortunately, at .456 on the season, his BABIP still appears unsustainable and there may be more regression coming.

✅ Popping Data 

 

Edwin Arroyo (SS, SEA-A)

Arroyo was a second round selection out of Puerto Rico in last year’s draft. His impressive profile includes 9 HR, 8 SB, and a .305/.374/.545 slash at Single-A, and is even more impressive when you consider that he is only 18 years old. At .353, Arroyo’s BABIP is a little on the high side, but the 21.4 K% is in the acceptable range for a player so young. This is one to keep an eye on!

✅ Age/Level 

✅ Stock 📈  

 

Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI-AAA)

A former first round pick by the Diamondbacks in the 2018 draft (39th overall) out of the University of Virginia, the 24 year old has been a force at the highest levels of the minor leagues in 2022 with a 1.199 OPS, and has reigned atop our 2022 leaderboard for a number of weeks now (though he may eventually be bumped off as we increase the PA threshold). McCarthy received big league exposure in a small sample last season and has again received the call this season. The results have not been spectacular, and across 136 plate appearances McCarthy has compiled a .210/.299/.345 slash line. Will the numbers end up translating? I’m going to go out on a limb and say that McCarthy is better than his current MLB production suggests, but he’s not going to be a difference-making superstar either.

✅ Popping Data 

✅ Stock 📈  

 

Hao Yu Lee (SS, PHI-A)

Hailing from Taiwan, Lee impressed in 25 plate appearances in his debut at the Rookie level with a 1.213 OPS. This year Lee is proving that debut legitimate, slashing .283/.385/.472 after moving up to Single-A, with 7 home runs and 8 stolen bases. Lee also sports promising strikeout (17.6%) and walk (12.3%) ratios and a sustainable .317 BABIP. Lee is someone worth adding to your watch list.

✅ Age/Level 

✅ Track Record

 

Logan O’Hoppe (C, PHI-AA)

A blast from my watch lists past! O’Hoppe makes a grand return to my personal watch list after a solid 2021 and, so far, an impressive 2022 season in his age 22 season. Currently, he sports a .294/.406/.532 overall slash and nearly as many walks as strikeouts (21:25). O’Hoppe is starting to make some waves as one of the minors’ best catching prospects, quite the impressive feat given the quality of catching prospects on the rise.

✅ Approach

✅ Stock 📈  

 

Hendry Mendez (OF, MIL-A)

At just 18 out of the Dominican Republic, Mendez makes today’s highlights on the back of an extremely advanced plate approach for a player his age, with a 1:1 BB:K ratio (33 of each as of writing). As a 17 year old in 2021, Mendez slashed an impressive .316/.409/.470 combined across DSL and Rookie levels, with 17 walks and only 12 strikeouts. While the power has not yet shown up in the box score, with just 2 home runs on the season thus far, this is the type of prospect profile that tends to experience breakouts that propel them up the rankings.

✅ Age/Level 

✅ Approach

✅ Track Record

 

Jackson Chourio (OF, MIL-A)

The third and final 18 year old prospect that will be highlighted in this article (the other two being Arroyo and Mendez), Chourio is also the youngest of the three, at just 82 days past his 18th birthday. A Venezuelan signed in January 2021, a member of the lost 2020 international crop, Chourio made a strong debut in 2021 with a .833 OPS, and has bumped that up to .895 this season. While there have not been many home runs (with just 1 in 105 plate appearances), his .495 SLG is buoyed by 11 doubles on the season. There is promise here, and I’m interested in seeing how he develops.

✅ Age/Level 

✅ Stock 📈  

 

Alejandro Osuna (OF, TEX-A)

Osuna debuted in Single-A at just 18 years old in 2021. This year, repeating the level, Osuna has made tremendous improvements. In 84 less plate appearances, Osuna already has the same number of home runs (6) as he tallied last season, though the single biggest improvement seems to be in cutting down his K rate by over 14% (from 30.5% in 2021 to 16.4% to 2022). Osuna will also chip in a healthy dose of stolen bases, with 31 in 402 plate appearances across the last two seasons. 

✅ Age/Level 

 

Tracking Past Highlights:

NameAge/LevelApproachPopping DataStockTrack Record
highlighted 5/5/2022
James Wood
Adael Amador
Ezequiel Tovar
Emmanuel Rodriguez
Anthony Garcia
Kyle Manzardo
Carson Williams
Masyn Winn
Jackson Merrill
Charlie Welch
highlighted 6/2/2022
Gunnar Henderson
Jay Allen
Dru Baker
Edwin Arroyo
Jake McCarthy
Hao Yu Lee
Logan O'Hoppe
Hendry Mendez
Jackson Chourio
Alejandro Osuna

 


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We are always open to feedback!

The Dynasty Guru: @DynastyGuru

Ross Jensen: @rossjensen12

Jordan Rosenblum: @rosenjordanblum

Scout the Statline: scoutthestatline.com

The Author

Ross Jensen

Ross Jensen

Ross has been a passionate fantasy baseball player and League Manager for over a decade. Ross's approach is to build league powers through hunting down talented minor leaguers and targeting players on the verge of breakout based on a variety of metrics, statistical analysis, and assumptions.

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