The NFL Draft is out of the way, and we finally have some context for rookie drafts. All of which leads to some major changes from my previous rankings, especially at the top. But it’s important to note that one size does not fit all. A team competing soon, while unlikely to be picking high, will have different needs than one competing later on, and past the middle of the second round anyway pretty much everyone is interchangeable, to a point. If this list is geared in any particular way, it’s toward teams that are not necessarily competing this year but plan to in another season’s time, which gives the running backs and quarterbacks a little bit more time to get seasoning. If that’s not your bag, simply adjust the numbers in your head. I believe in you. This is just one man’s collection of thoughts, liable to change at any moment.

ROUND 1

1. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets 

I was already set to leapfrog the running backs above Malik Willis, then the NFL Draft came along and pushed Willis even further down the list. That made Hall the 1.1 by a decent margin. For all the hand-wringing about the Jets’ plurality of options on offense and how that could affect his usage, the lead running back (and he will be the lead running back sooner rather than later) on a team that might be able score but not play a lick of defense is a huge asset before you consider his considerable running skills, which have been favorably compared to those of Jonathan Taylor. There are fears of a split with Michael Carter, and they’re fair, but Carter split time in college with Javonte Williams as a definitive, complementary productive 1B and I expect the same breakdown here. The important part there is who gets the goal line work. I’m saying Hall. 

2. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks 

The Seahawks have always wanted to run the ball, and for most of the last decade they’ve done so behind the best deep-ball thrower in the league. Now they have Drew Lock calling signals, at least until if/when they trade for Baker Mayfield, but I don’t think that makes much of a difference to the offense. The biggest obstacle to Walker’s thriving immediately is Rashaad Penny, who dusted off years’ worth of cobwebs to basically be the league’s best running back in the second half of last season, but even with a guaranteed contract he’s still a perpetual injury risk and Walker’s nascent receiving skills make him useful as a 1B at worst. The path is there for stardom, though, and in a wide-receiver laden draft, he’s probably worth grabbing before moving on to the pass-catchers, even if it’s mighty close between him and the next guy.

3. Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons 

That settles that. Before the draft I found it near-impossible to separate out the top receivers, but the Falcons went ahead and did it for me. In fact, whichever receiver the Falcons picked would have likely ended up in this spot, all else being equal. Even with Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder (to whom we’ll get) at quarterback, London is the safest option both for this year and beyond. The options in Atlanta are him and Kyle Pitts, the end, apologies to Olamide Zaccheus. When the talent is just about equal, volume is the name of the game. There is no question that London’s getting the targets. Think Keyshawn Johnson. 

4. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints 

In dynasty rankings, I’m looking into the future, I’m not looking that far – with the exception of quarterbacks, I’m looking ahead three years at most. I mention this because I think that Olave, alongside London, has the best chance to have the longest productive career in this receiver class. There’s a lot of Marvin Harrison in this game, minus the shooting people part, and playing in a dome, albeit alongside Jameis Winston, I see the potential for sustained goodness to greatness. He’s my favorite player in the draft.

5. Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs 

Moore’s landing spot couldn’t be better for his skill set and outlook. The only reason he’s not ranked higher is that, in the short term, the Chiefs are replacing Tyreek Hill by committee rather than looking for a 1:1 substitute, because none exists. None has ever existed. He’ll have to compete with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Justyn Ross, Josh Gordon and, of course, Travis Kelce for targets, which could make for some tough going in the short- and medium-terms, but that will be extremely relative tough going, given that it’ll be for the Chiefs. It’s a convenient pun, but the sky’s the limit. 

6. Jameson Williams

There’s a decent chance we look back on this draft and are shocked that Williams wasn’t picked higher than he was, even though he went 12th–he has all the talent in the world and, heading to Detroit, is going to a much better situation than it seems. It’s easy to forget that Jared Goff has been the quarterback on an offense that put up insane passing totals and supported two top-15 receivers in Cooper Kupp and Roberts Woods, and I see no reason he can’t do the same with Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown. I have fewer concerns here than I do with, say, Zach and Garrett Wilson, not leastwise because there’s a near 100 percent chance Goff is replaced by someone better next season, whereas the Wilsons are stuck with each other.

7. Desmond Ridder

I don’t see Marcus Mariota holding off Ridder for the entirety of the season, and I think Ridder is quite comfortably the most pro-ready throwing in the draft. I don’t care that he was drafted in the third round. I care that he will play for an innovative offensive coach with complementary weapons in Pitts and London, with more likely to come. The bottom line here is that superflex is superflex, and living, breathing quarterbacks are valuable.

8. Treylon Burks

Burks is a monster, but I have concerns that are considerably exacerbated by his landing spot. For all of A.J. Brown’s brilliance, he never topped 114 targets on the Titans (or so it seems; target numbers seem to vary by site, but 114 is the high end). By comparison, Kupp had more than 230 in 2021. Brown’s number puts him in the 2021 Zach Ertz/Dalton Schultz range, and while Brown and Burks have been compared on their size and after-catch ability, Brown entered the league as a far more complete receiver. Beyond that, even if we’re only looking a couple years ahead, a potential Malik-Willis offense would bode even worse for the Arkansas product. All that said, the floor here is pretty decent given Tennessee’s lack of receiving options, but the ceiling has been lowered considerably. 

9. Garrett Wilson

This ranking could end up looking painfully low, but given the crowd in the Jets’s receiver room, the crowd in the backfield, and the questions over his quarterback’s ceiling and his own attention to detail, I’m fairly cool on Wilson. The ceiling is high but the floor is low. That said, his great plays are going to be as spectacular as anyone’s. You just might have to wait longer than you want to see them. 

10. Kenny Pickett

For Pickett, it’s all about the landing spot. Pittsburgh is as stable as any organization in football, and I trust they will get as much out of him as humanly possible. I ultimately think that Ridder’s ceiling is higher and the floor is about the same. I likely will shy away from Pickett, but given how much the team environment has shaped the near futures of rookie quarterbacks – the Trevor Lawrence/Mac Jones dynamic being the clearest example – he’s a solid get in superflex.

11. Malik Willis

The lottery works because it pays out quickly or not at all. Like a lot of armchair analysts, I thought Willis had the best chance to start of any rookie quarterback, but that’s obviously out the window. Now you have to wait, not on a sure thing but on a wild card, and, unfortunately, that just kinda stinks. All that said, this is still the first round, and if you took him 1.1 in a pre-draft FYPD, I wouldn’t be *too* worried, just disappointed. The player hasn’t changed; only the context, but it has, obviously, changed quite a bit.

12. James Cook

Cook is the biggest riser on this list, and with good reason: Like got the preferred landing spot. While Josh Allen is going to vulture his fair share of touchdowns, the fact that the Bills selected yet another running back behind Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, and did so in the second round, suggests Cook has quite an opportunity to fill the role originally envisioned for Moss and/or J.D. McKissic, who almost joined the team. Throw in his brother’s pedigree and there’s a ton to like here, even if it might take a while to shake out.

Round 2

13. George Pickens

Another ranking that could look painfully low, Pickens goes to a great organization that has proven it can sustain several wide receivers with substandard quarterback play. 

14. Rachaad White

The Bucs are a this-year-only team, and their plan this year is to ride Leonard Fournette and Tom Brady into the ground. That said, White might be the better 1:1 replacement for Fournette than Ke’Shawn Vaughn should Lenny go down, which happens, so I guess I see it. He’s certainly not bad at football.

15. Christian Watson

The good part: His quarterback is the 2-time-reigning and 4-time-overall MVP. The bad part: Said MVP and rookie receivers don’t often mesh well. He will catch touchdowns, you just might not have any idea when.

16. Tyler Allgeier

Who else is playing running back in Atlanta? Nobody notable outside of Cordarrelle Patterson, and while I love C-Patts to death, how long is that going to last?

17. David Bell

I’m not getting into the Deshaun Watson business except to say that as a football player he tends to throw the ball very well. The Browns have Amari Cooper, yes, but Bell otherwise is Skyy Moore-light in terms of landing spot. Very good to great things are possible.

18. Jahan Dotson

A first-round receiver is a first-round receiver. Whether he should have been one or not, he’s going to see action. Dotson will see action. Yes, Carson Wentz is his quarterback. But we’re nearing the point where any elite trait (in this case, draft position) trumps the rest.

19. Isaiah Spiller

I hate to and will not root for an injury, but Spiller is an Austin Ekeler injury away from being a top-10 fantasy back. It’s not the landing spot or the talent—it’s both. He will get his chance eventually. It’s just a matter of when.

20. Matt Corral

At this point, you might as well take the chance on Corral. He could be a starting quarterback in the league this year and if he has one good game you can trade him for something useful. 

21. Dameon Pierce

There’s a very clear path to carries in Houston’s backfield, and Pierce seems likely to walk it for a couple years. I’d be higher on him in redraft than dynasty for that reason, but you gotta get a chance to make your name, and he’s definitely going to get a chance.

22. John Metchie III

Alabama skill players are always good. Davis Mills might not be neither all that nor a bag of chips, but he won’t be around forever, and Metchie’s talent is very real.

23. Jalen Tolbert

The Cowboys are right now relying heavily on CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, who just signed an extension. They’ve usually supported three receivers fairly well and Gallup has an injury history. There’s a lot to like here.

24. Tyrion Davis-Price

He’s a running back on the 49ers. That’s the long and short of it. The definition of boom-or-bust, he could do nothing for you (like Trey Sermon) or win you a league (like Elijah Mitchell). 

Round 3

25. Alec Pierce

Perfect spot to land in in Indianapolis, and if he can mesh with Matt Ryan he could do some nice rookie numbers.

26. Kyren Williams

The Rams love running backs. Williams is a running back. He is also a Ram. Do the math.

27. Brian Robinson Jr.

Again: Alabama skill position players don’t miss. He’s an Antonio Gibson injury away from a huge role, even if he spells his first name wrong.

28. Sam Howell

He can run, and Wentz stinks. He’s worth it at this poin

29. Khalil Shakur

He’s a living, breathing wide receiver for Josh Allen. You could do a lot worse. 

30. Carson Strong

Jalen Hurts has to prove it’s his year or face being replaced. Given the amount they’ve invested in wide receivers, the Eagles are attractive to anyone with a live arm, and Strong is that.

31. Justyn Ross

I don’t care if he went undrafted. If he makes the Chiefs, he could be an incredible impact player. If he doesn’t he probably won’t be. But at this point it’s worth the risk.

32. Zamir White

There’s not a ton of clarity about what’s going to happen on Josh McDaniels’s watch in Las Vegas, but White is his choice in the backfield, and that could end up meaning something.

33. Trey McBride

If you can wait for your tight end to develop, this is your guy.

34. Hassan Haskins

Derrick Henry might not live forever, and if he doesn’t, Haskins could pick up a shit ton of work. If Henry stays healthy this is a wasted pick, but at this point you can afford it.

35. Jelani Woods

Matt Ryan is no dummy, and smart quarterbacks throw to their tight ends. Mo-Alie Cox et. al are there but they’re not game-changers. If Woods is, it might expand beyond the Ryan year(s), but it could also start soon.

36. Calvin Austin 

He will probably be better for real-life football than fantasy football, but for a third-rounder he will be fun in both.