Past Performance Indicates Future Returns??

In 2019, we began publishing a historical list of the best projected MiLB hitters over time.  You can see the first version of this list here.  Since then, we have refined and dramatically improved our methodologies, but the purpose of this exercise remains the same.  Looking back at history reveals two things:

1. How predictive our methodologies are
2. How current minor leaguers compare to successful major leaguers

Tenets for Dynasty Success

We have learned a lot about forecasting player statistics over time, but my personal approach to player analysis remains the same as it was when I published my very first article with TDG. We have made significant progress in capturing most of these tenets at statlinescouting.com.

• Performance is always more important than raw talent
• Age and level are critical comparative factors
• Statistical comparisons to past and present players help you understand how good a player can be
• Improvement through seasons and levels shows how quickly a player is developing
• Do not get attached

The last two bullets require active participation on a fantasy owner’s behalf. scoutthestatline.com was designed to help with the rest.

Below is the most recent update of the top 100 MiLB hitters since 2006.  For the full list, follow this link.

Note: Since publishing this article, we have already adjusted how we order players – based on z-score – which we think more accurately captures fantasy value.  So you definitely want to check out the results at the link above!

Stat Line Scouting’s Top 100 MiLB Hitters Since 2006

Notes/Observations

• In my aforementioned inaugural article with TDG, I wrote, “if the only comp you can think of is a guy that played baseball 60 years ago, he is probably a rare type indeed” – see Juan Soto at the top of the list, who comps to Lou Gherig (83 years ago)!
• Seasoned college hitters who perform well right out of the gates tend to project very well – see Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Brandon Belt, and Alex Gordon.
• Power development can be difficult to predict – see Mike Trout.
• A high strikeout rate and low walk rate tend to be indicators that a player may struggle with the MLB transition, though players with rare power tend to be exceptions – see Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo.

As an added bonus for your player analysis, below is a table of TDG’s list of top hitting prospects, along with where they fit in this historical list and in Scout the Statline’s Top Prospects list by projected wRC+.

TDG & Stat Line Scouting’s Top Prospects

Notes/Observations

• An asterisk next to a name indicates that a player has not met one of Scouting the Statline’s plate appearances thresholds, while an asterisk in a ranking column indicates that is the list they did not qualify for – the place they would rank on that list if they had qualified has been put in its place.
• For a more easily sortable list, visit this link.
• Julio Rodriguez is a consensus #1 prospect between TDG and Scouting the Statline’s stats-based projection, coming in as the 5th best hitting prospect since 2006!
• Players that deviate on the stats-based list most from from traditional rankings are the ones with the most buy-low or sell-high potential.
  • For potential sell-highs, see Josh Lowe, Adley Rutschman, Marco Luciano, and Brayan Rocchio.
  • For potential buy-lows, see Andy Pages, Seth Beer, Bryson Stott, and Curtis Mead.

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We are always open to feedback!

The Dynasty Guru: @DynastyGuru

Ross Jensen: @rossjensen12

Jordan Rosenblum: @rosenjordanblum

Scouting the Statline: statlinescouting.com