Dynasty BaseballScouting the Statline

Scouting the Statline’s Top 100 Minor League Hitters Since 2006

Past Performance Indicates Future Returns??

In 2019, we began publishing a historical list of the best projected MiLB hitters over time.  You can see the first version of this list here.  Since then, we have refined and dramatically improved our methodologies, but the purpose of this exercise remains the same.  Looking back at history reveals two things:

  1. How predictive our methodologies are
  2. How current minor leaguers compare to successful major leaguers

Tenets for Dynasty Success

We have learned a lot about forecasting player statistics over time, but my personal approach to player analysis remains the same as it was when I published my very first article with TDG. We have made significant progress in capturing most of these tenets at statlinescouting.com.

  • Performance is always more important than raw talent
  • Age and level are critical comparative factors
  • Statistical comparisons to past and present players help you understand how good a player can be
  • Improvement through seasons and levels shows how quickly a player is developing
  • Do not get attached

The last two bullets require active participation on a fantasy owner’s behalf. scoutthestatline.com was designed to help with the rest.

Below is the most recent update of the top 100 MiLB hitters since 2006.  For the full list, follow this link.

Note: Since publishing this article, we have already adjusted how we order players – based on z-score – which we think more accurately captures fantasy value.  So you definitely want to check out the results at the link above!

Stat Line Scouting’s Top 100 MiLB Hitters Since 2006

IndexNameHistorical CompLast TeamLast YearLast AgeCareer PAwRC+wOBABAOBPSLGHRSBBB%K%BABIP 
1Juan SotoLou GehrigWSN201819512185.50.440.3380.3990.6193670%11%10%0.318
2Kris BryantMark McGwireCHC201826779172.10.4190.3010.3830.5933890%11%26%0.353
3Kyle SchwarberManny RamirezCHC2017246651650.4080.3130.380.5683320%11%21%0.336
4Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Jeff HeathTOR2019201258159.30.3990.320.3830.5352780%11%7%0.29
5Julio RodriguezGary SheffieldSEA202120962153.80.3910.3090.3830.51223110%9%14%0.33
6Wander FrancoTony OlivaTBR202120948149.90.3850.3190.3470.54426100%10%4%0.26
7Mike TroutRoger ConnorLAA2012201328149.80.3850.3210.3960.47513240%11%11%0.342
8Brandon BeltReggie SmithSFG202133860149.20.3840.3040.3920.4791560%13%18%0.348
9Giancarlo StantonJuan GonzalezNYY2019291448147.70.3810.2610.3290.5694430%10%22%0.248
10Matt WietersChris HoilesBAL200923706145.10.3780.3160.3780.484201100%11%15%0.326
11Bryce HarperLeon DurhamWSN201219549142.20.3730.2830.3670.48725180%12%12%0.286
12Joey GalloGiancarlo StantonTEX2016222087142.20.3730.2290.3250.554450%13%31%0.24
13Jay BruceRyan KleskoCIN2009221322141.70.3720.2980.3340.5332790%7%19%0.318
14Alex GordonBobby GrichKCR2018341138141.30.3720.2870.380.4661680%11%21%0.345
15Jason HeywardChick HafeyATL2013231029140.80.3710.3120.3440.5112290%10%9%0.275
16Ronald Acuna Jr.Shane MackATL2018201121140.10.370.2980.3550.4923250%9%16%0.314
17Francisco AlvarezJim EdmondsNYM202119582138.20.3670.2630.3410.511335100%12%17%0.243
18Luis RobertKirk GibsonCHW202123922136.60.3640.2880.3480.4921230%7%21%0.335
19Bo BichetteMichael BrantleyTOR2019211445136.40.3640.3040.3520.48317170%7%14%0.329
20Andy PagesDave KingmanLAD2021201029135.70.3630.2330.340.5033670%11%22%0.235
21Miguel SanoGiancarlo StantonMIN2019262073135.20.3620.2530.320.5313650%10%24%0.259
22Byron BuxtonAndrew McCutchenMIN2021271620134.50.3610.2860.340.4923170%8%19%0.314
23Joey VottoKirby PuckettCIN2021371192134.30.3610.290.3550.46920130%10%19%0.322
24Xander BogaertsEddie MurrayBOS20132016231340.360.2850.3450.4842450%9%14%0.286
25Andrew BenintendiGavvy CravathBOS2016216571340.360.2850.3440.48817120%10%9%0.271
26Spencer TorkelsonJ.D. MartinezDET2021215301340.360.2490.330.5073330%12%19%0.23
27Yordan AlvarezMorgan EnsbergHOU2019221080133.60.360.2820.3330.5022750%10%19%0.276
28Wil MyersAndres GalarragaSDP2018272026133.20.3590.280.3460.4812480%10%18%0.297
29Michael ConfortoNorm SiebernNYM202128744133.20.3590.30.3570.4621820%8%16%0.332
30Alejandro KirkGabby HartnettTOR202122672132.80.3590.2820.3640.4531820%11%10%0.283
31Pete AlonsoDick StuartNYM2018231090132.60.3580.2640.3360.493290200%8%20%0.284
32Carlos CorreaEarl TorgesonHOU2019241330132.40.3580.2940.3520.46514130%9%13%0.305
33Adam JonesCarlton FiskSEA200721885132.30.3580.2680.3330.4892890%7%18%0.286
34Riley GreeneBryce HarperDET202120809132.20.3580.2760.3470.47224100%10%22%0.32
35Heriberto HernandezJose BautistaTBR202121793131.90.3570.2390.330.4973160%14%23%0.23
36Eloy JimenezGary RoenickeCHW2021241766131.60.3570.2930.3280.4992630%6%16%0.298
37Evan LongoriaEddie MathewsSFG202135967131.30.3560.280.3430.4772740%9%16%0.283
38Matt KempTommie AgeeNYM201934699131.10.3560.2960.3480.46413160%6%16%0.336
39Mookie BettsAmos OtisBOS20142113071310.3560.2910.3690.43513220%11%9%0.297
40Anthony VolpeDonn ClendenonNYY2021206631310.3560.2390.3380.48325140%12%19%0.241
41Billy ButlerDavid SeguiKCR200822906130.90.3560.3040.3520.4641620%9%9%0.286
42Christian YelichDonn ClendenonMIA2013211298130.40.3550.2920.3490.46219110%8%18%0.332
43Oscar TaverasLuis GonzalezSTL2014221861130.30.3550.2930.3350.4822070%7%11%0.29
44Buster PoseyDanny LitwhilerSFG201023750129.90.3540.290.3630.441420%10%15%0.312
45Nelson CruzJason BayTEX2011301130129.70.3540.2710.3290.48929130%8%24%0.303
46Anthony RizzoHack WilsonCHC2012221914129.50.3530.2790.330.4872450%8%17%0.282
47Jarred KelenicDave ParkerSEA202121894128.90.3530.2630.3310.48528130%9%17%0.272
48Victor RoblesJulio FrancoWSN2021241793128.80.3520.2810.3540.44815230%7%13%0.299
49Ryan BraunMack JonesMIL200723662128.60.3520.2790.3220.49527130%7%17%0.286
50Justin UptonBobby GrichARI2008201050128.60.3520.280.3440.46421100%10%14%0.282
51Javier BaezShawn GreenCHC2016231687128.50.3520.2740.3110.51433160%6%22%0.283
52Brennen DavisMark CanhaCHC202121692128.50.3520.2610.3370.4732790%10%21%0.283
53Eric HosmerEdgardo AlfonzoKCR2014241164128.20.3510.2960.3520.4511550%10%12%0.302
54Paul GoldschmidtBrad HawpeARI2011231387127.80.3510.2660.3320.4872630%9%24%0.303
55Fernando Tatis Jr.Ryan BraunSDP2018191206127.80.3510.2640.3330.47625150%10%19%0.282
56Nick SenzelSean BerryCIN2021261069127.10.350.2880.3390.46116100%8%20%0.334
57Jhonkensy NoelAlbert BelleCLE202119759126.70.3490.2630.3240.4943380%8%17%0.248
58Joc PedersonAlfonso SorianoLAD2017252046126.60.3490.2640.350.44923160%11%20%0.293
59Addison RussellAsdrubal CabreraCHC2019251206126.50.3490.2730.3380.46522100%8%18%0.298
60Freddie FreemanGeorge HendrickATL2015251792126.40.3490.290.340.4591940%7%11%0.29
61George SpringerTommy PhamTOR2021311317126.10.3480.2670.3390.46421190%9%25%0.325
62Domingo SantanaCody RossMIL2018253226125.60.3470.260.340.4562360%10%25%0.317
63Adam EatonElliott MaddoxCHW2014251586125.60.3470.2950.3820.3925180%9%15%0.347
64Oswaldo ArciaDon DemeterARI20172625541250.3460.2680.3160.4892740%7%20%0.286
65George ValeraGeorge SpringerCLE202120599124.80.3460.2260.3370.4513180%14%22%0.227
66Rhys HoskinsJ.D. MartinezPHI2017241904124.70.3460.2590.3230.4792830%8%20%0.269
67Ozzie AlbiesShannon StewartATL2017201744124.50.3460.2970.3460.43513210%8%11%0.304
68Alek ThomasGary WardARI2021211273123.70.3450.2790.3480.4341490%9%16%0.316
69Keston HiuraBill RobinsonMIL2021241171123.30.3440.2780.3330.4571980%7%22%0.329
70Chris DavisLance ParrishTEX2011252000123.30.3440.2720.3130.4952720%6%24%0.303
71Alex KirilloffRobinson CanoMIN2019211204123.10.3440.2940.3260.467203100%5%15%0.306
72Rafael DeversGreg ColbrunnBOS20182117361230.3430.2820.3250.4671960%8%13%0.282
73Orelvis MartinezMark TrumboTOR202119614122.70.3430.2320.30.513840%8%20%0.223
74Nathaniel LoweKevin MillarTBR2019231718122.40.3430.2730.3520.4241610%11%18%0.307
75Austin RileyJim LemonATL2019221996122.40.3420.2680.3110.4842820%7%22%0.282
76Luis MatosMichael BrantleySFG202119781122.30.3420.2930.3430.44614150%6%9%0.295
77Alex BregmanReggie SmithHOU202127723122.20.3420.2740.3370.4451770%9%10%0.268
78Corey SeagerJeff KentLAD20152117041220.3420.2780.3260.4662150%8%16%0.288
79Iverson LeonardoGlenallen HillDET202119640121.90.3420.2230.3420.4342312100%13%22%0.245
80Yoan MoncadaAndy Van SlykeCHW2019241237121.90.3420.270.3420.43617250%11%22%0.315
81Jo AdellBrad MillerLAA2021221343121.70.3410.2630.3180.4742590%7%23%0.304
82Daulton VarshoEllis ValentineARI2021241105121.30.3410.2730.3260.46323110%7%16%0.287
83Kristian RobinsonJayson WerthARI201918547121.20.3410.2440.3320.45429170%11%23%0.274
84Nolan JonesChristian WalkerCLE20212318601210.340.2510.3510.422040%14%26%0.31
85J.D. MartinezDavid FreeseDET2017291504120.70.340.2890.3240.4631810%6%18%0.309
86Jorge SolerLogan MorrisonKCR2018261017120.60.340.2560.3290.4552640%10%21%0.283
87Triston CasasTroy GlausBOS202121864120.10.3390.250.3140.472850%11%17%0.232
88Jesse WinkerLee ThomasCIN2017232438120.10.3390.2770.3550.411430%11%15%0.3
89Seth BeerJesus AguilarARI20212412651200.3390.2590.3380.436210100%7%19%0.277
90Mike ZuninoCecil FielderSEA2017268461200.3390.2420.3080.478310100%8%24%0.254
91Jesus MonteroHideki MatsuiBAL2017273556119.90.3390.2850.3270.4482010%6%16%0.306
92Luis UriasPhil CavarrettaSDP2019222402119.70.3380.2850.3640.395960%9%10%0.303
93Austin MeadowsMark WhitenTBR2018231967119.40.3380.2770.3260.44616120%7%15%0.294
94Cody BellingerJohn JahaLAD2021251547119.40.3380.2470.3120.4763080%10%20%0.248
95Greg BirdEarl WilliamsCOL2021282089119.20.3380.2470.3290.444230100%11%21%0.27
96Miguel VargasJim FregosiLAD2021211330119.20.3380.2940.3420.4291370%8%13%0.306
97Josh JungJoe RudiTEX202123540118.80.3370.2790.3250.4491830%7%20%0.312
98Brad MillerMichael YoungNYY2019291206118.50.3360.290.3460.4181150%9%18%0.334
99Manny MachadoJim TaborBAL201219934118.50.3360.2650.3340.4341611010%10%0.264
100Gabriel MorenoGeorge BellTOR202121798118.30.3360.2740.3080.46923606%9%0.255

Notes/Observations

  • In my aforementioned inaugural article with TDG, I wrote, “if the only comp you can think of is a guy that played baseball 60 years ago, he is probably a rare type indeed” – see Juan Soto at the top of the list, who comps to Lou Gherig (83 years ago)!
  • Seasoned college hitters who perform well right out of the gates tend to project very well – see Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Brandon Belt, and Alex Gordon.
  • Power development can be difficult to predict – see Mike Trout.
  • A high strikeout rate and low walk rate tend to be indicators that a player may struggle with the MLB transition, though players with rare power tend to be exceptions – see Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo.

As an added bonus for your player analysis, below is a table of TDG’s list of top hitting prospects, along with where they fit in this historical list and in Scout the Statline’s Top Prospects list by projected wRC+.

TDG & Stat Line Scouting’s Top Prospects

NameTeamPOSTDG Prospect RankStat Line Scouting Projected wRC+ RankRank on Historical List
Julio RodriguezSEAOF115
Bobby Witt Jr.KCSS247140
Spencer TorkelsonDET1B3527
Riley GreeneDETOF4836
Adley RutschmanBALC5148170
C.J. Abrams*SDSS61536*
Anthony VolpeNYYSS71242
Corbin Carroll*ARIOF8417*
Brennen DavisCHCOF101155
Oneil CruzPITSS113196
Robert Hassell*SDOF12104303*
Noelvi MarteSEASS13111252
Triston CasasBOS1B142498
Marco LucianoSFSS15100161
Francisco AlvarezNYMC16217
Zac Veen*COLOF1849139*
Alek ThomasARIOF192176
Vidal BrujanTB2B2084229
Josh JungTEX3B2110108
Jordan Walker*STL3B22411*
Nick Yorke*BOS2B24628*
Josh LoweTBOF25107430
Luis MatosSFOF261385
Marcelo Mayer*BOSSS27223*585*
Nick Gonzales*PIT2B2838123*
Seiya SuzukiFAOF29DNQDNQ
Henry DavisPITC305*22*
Kahlil Watson*MIASS311*2*
Tyler Soderstrom*OAKC3220*76*
Jordan Lawlar*ARISS33DNQDNQ
Austin Martin*MINOF34106303*
George ValeraCLEOF354673
Orelvis MartinezTORSS373182
Nolan GormanSTL2B3964175
Gabriel MorenoTORC4092111
Brayan RocchioCLESS4582274
Jasson Dominguez*NYYOF46370*873*
Jose MirandaMIN3B48124760
Dustin HarrisTEX1B4944172
Matt McLain*CINSS51150*399*
Garrett Mitchell*MILOF52130*472*
Miguel VargasLAD3B5428107
Oswald PerazaNYYSS55219661
Michael HarrisATLOF57239631
Brett BatyNYM3B5848286
Royce LewisMINSS59188521
Cristian Hernandez*CHCSS60233*676*
Blaze Jordan*BOS3B6130*103*
Coby Mayo*BAL3B6212*41*
Pete Crow-Armstrong*NYMOF631*2*
Reginald Preciado*CHCSS6487*256*
Jordan GroshansTOR3B6586194
Harry Ford*SEAC6618*61*
Steven KwanCLEOF6755277
MJ MelendezKCC6862362
Jeter DownsBOSSS69187864
Brady House*WAS3B7018*61*
Everson PereiraNYYOF7120316
Juan YepezSTL1B72117452
Colton Cowser*BALOF734*9*
Pedro Leon*HOUOF741165*3076*
Sal Frelick*MILOF7565*296*
Jay Allen*CINOF775*23*
Michael BuschLAD2B78481396
Gunnar HendersonBALSS79302681
Liover PegueroPITSS80256742
Vaughn GrissomATLSS8129225
Heliot RamosSFOF83110262
Jhonkensy NoelCLE1B843562
Tyler FreemanCLESS8566165
Benny Montgomery*COLOF87475*827*
Jorbit VivasLAD2B8887308
Bryson StottPHISS919180
Greg JonesTBSS94275367
Joey Wiemer*MILOF9527124*
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1B9650151
Elly De La Cruz*CINSS9771466*
Xavier EdwardsTB2B9985264
Nolan JonesCLE3B1002594
Andy PagesLADOF101721
Owen Caissie*CHCOF10419*50*
Nick PrattoKC1B10589492
Curtis MeadTB3B10714132
Joey BartSFC108194501
Lars NootbaarSTLOF1103911921
Wilman Diaz*LADSS1111461*5954*
Austin Wells*NYYC112138363*
Masyn Winn*STLSS1159202821*
Ronny MauricioNYMSS1164621775
Kevin Alcantara*CHCOF11752221*
Trey Sweeney*NYY3B118218*631*
James Triantos*CHC3B11931*104*
Heston Kjerstad*BALOF120DNQDNQ
Jose SiriHOUOF1216011466
Hedbert Perez*MILOF122648*1254*
Seth BeerARI1B12330100
Eddys LeonardLAD2B12451143
Jairo PomaresSFOF12569114
Evan Carter*TEXOF12618*62*
Geraldo PerdomoARISS12754265

Notes/Observations

  • An asterisk next to a name indicates that a player has not met one of Scouting the Statline’s plate appearances thresholds, while an asterisk in a ranking column indicates that is the list they did not qualify for – the place they would rank on that list if they had qualified has been put in its place.
  • For a more easily sortable list, visit this link.
  • Julio Rodriguez is a consensus #1 prospect between TDG and Scouting the Statline’s stats-based projection, coming in as the 5th best hitting prospect since 2006!
  • Players that deviate on the stats-based list most from from traditional rankings are the ones with the most buy-low or sell-high potential.
    • For potential sell-highs, see Josh Lowe, Adley Rutschman, Marco Luciano, and Brayan Rocchio.
    • For potential buy-lows, see Andy Pages, Seth Beer, Bryson Stott, and Curtis Mead.

 


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We are always open to feedback!

The Dynasty Guru: @DynastyGuru

Ross Jensen: @rossjensen12

Jordan Rosenblum: @rosenjordanblum

Scouting the Statline: statlinescouting.com

The Author

Ross Jensen

Ross Jensen

Ross has been a passionate fantasy baseball player and League Manager for over a decade. Ross's approach is to build league powers through hunting down talented minor leaguers and targeting players on the verge of breakout based on a variety of metrics, statistical analysis, and assumptions.

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