2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

THE DYNASTY GURU’S 2022 TOP 200 DYNASTY LEAGUE STARTING PITCHERS, #131-200

Continuing with TDG’s consensus rankings with Starting Pitchers ranked #131 through #200.  Starters #1-#50 can be found here and #51-130 can be found here.  Read on!

Donate to Unlock 2022 Draft Kit

A minimum donation of $10 grants you access to a downloadable spreadsheet of TDG’s 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings! Once your donation successfully processes, you will receive an email with a link to the rankings.

$
Personal Info

Donation Total: $10

131. Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 109)

Eflin has been on breakout candidate lists for years now, partially fueled by the expectations of being the 33rd overall pick in 2012, prospect pedigree, and flashing brilliant outings at times. Eflin had entered 2020 with a paltry career 6.8 K/9 (17.6 K%) before displaying a breakout 10.7 K/9 (28.6 K%) in his ten-start short season. Unfortunately, this dropped back to 8.4 K/9 in 2021 but Eflin’s impeccable control finished with the best walk rate in all of baseball (minimum: 100 innings). He walked only 16 batters in 105 2/3 innings before being shut down in July with a knee injury and having right patellar tendon surgery in September that would take a 6-8 month recovery. Eflin may have been getting too much of the plate, allowing a .255 BA or higher against all five of his pitches. Over the last four seasons, Eflin has finished with an ERA between a very narrow 3.97 and 4.36. For the first time, Eflin is likely undervalued in redraft; an afterthought going outside the top 450 picks in NFBC, and a sneaky late Best Ball/Draft and Hold pick, even if he doesn’t return until May. (Bob Osgood)

 

132. Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox (Age: 29, Previous Rank: NR)

Pivetta’s first three seasons were plenty rocky and found himself in the Minors/Alt. Site in Philadelphia in 2020 and in need of a change of scenery. After a trade to Boston, Pivetta was called up for the final week and showed promise in two end-of-season starts. In 2021, Pivetta did all that the Red Sox could have asked, making 30 starts and going 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA. With a 94.8 MPH fastball, the best of his career, separating against a killer 12-to-6 hook that came in at 78.6 MPH, Pivetta had hitters off-balance enough for a 26.5 K%. The curve allowed a ridiculous .165 BA and .295 SLG on the season. Pivetta got the save in Game 162 just to get the Red Sox into the postseason, which was a sign of things to come where he became the Alex Cora swing-man puppet in the playoffs. His signature moment came in Game 3 of the ALDS, throwing four shutout innings in extras, striking out seven and getting the win while high-stepping off the mound each inning like a young Deion Sanders. Pivetta may not have much more upside than what he showed in 2021 but he only allowed more than four earned runs in two starts all season and he can surely help in the Win and Strikeout categories on a good team. (Bob Osgood)

 

133. Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 30)

Finally freed from the bullpen manipulation with the Dodgers, we all got a little too hyped reacting to Maeda’s “career year” 11 starts in 2020, with all starts coming solely against the subpar AL and NL Centrals. How we allowed Maeda to go in the third round of drafts last year is beyond me but it happened. What we didn’t know is that Maeda was going to have the worst ERA (4.66) and WHIP (1.30) of his career, as a result of an injured elbow, and provide almost zero value the entire season. Maeda did have an abbreviated version of TJ Surgery and reportedly may be in the 9-to-12 month recovery time frame and has a chance to pitch late in 2022. The expectations should be non-existent, although getting a few innings can only help the cause for 2023. The only way Maeda should be rostered is in dynasty formats, preferably on a team that is playing for 2023. He will, however, turn 35 early in that season and probably have fewer restrictions than younger post-Tommy John pitchers. (Bob Osgood)

134. Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 122)

A lot of fantasy players had pegged Javier is a breakout candidate in 2021 on an excellent Astros team. He opened the season in the rotation, made his first nine starts, going 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings. Great pick, right? Well, Javier was moved to the bullpen in late May, when three rotation arms returned from the IL and stayed for the year. The issue was that Javier had walked 21 batters in that span, a trend that continued while he was in the bullpen and gave up a lot of hard contact (bottom 10% of the league in Avg. Exit Velocity). Eno Sarris’ Location+ metric grades out poorly for Javier, but his Stuff+ is very good, checking out in his 12.5/30.7 BB%/K%. Batters have only hit .185 against Javier since he got to the majors, an outstanding mark. If he can get his command in check, he could be that post-hype breakout. If playing for 2023, I’m buying Javier even if he doesn’t start the season in the rotation. (Bob Osgood)

135. Simeon Woods-Richardson, Minnesota Twins (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 80)

If we did this list in late June of 2021, Woods-Richardson might have been 40 or 50 spots higher on our list. In his first seven starts at Double-A, he was 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and had struck out 48 in 30 innings, and was shooting up prospect lists. He allowed 6 runs in four of his remaining seven starts, finished the year with a 5.7 BB/9, was traded to Minnesota in the Jose Berrios deal and the helium has been let out of the balloon. SWR seems to have some relief risk, with concern about batters seeing the ball well in the second and third time through the order. His changeup grades out well, with two decent breaking balls, but he’ll have to find a way to better locate his low-90s fastball if he’s going to succeed at the MLB level. (Bob Osgood)

136. Carlos Hernandez, SP, Kansas City Royals (Age: 25, Previous Rank: NR)

Carlos Hernandez used five different pitches, including a fastball that averaged over 97 MPH, to produce a 3.68 ERA for the Royals at age 24. Yes, you read that right. Sounds like a guy who should be about 100 spots higher, doesn’t it? But before you rush to acquire him in all your leagues, stop by Hernandez’s Fangraphs page and this ranking will make more sense. His career ERA in the minors was 4.55, and that’s probably about where it deserved to be in MLB last season, given his 20.7% K-rate and 11.5% BB-rate. He struck out almost as many batters in 27.1 relief innings (36) as he did in 58.1 IP in starts (38), so the bullpen may be his ultimate home. The stuff is scary good, but don’t get too excited until the command and results show signs of improvement. (Ben Sanders)

137. Chris Flexen, SP, Seattle Mariners (Age: 27, Previous Rank: NR)

Chris Flexen is very much the opposite of the players ranked one spot above and below him. He has nothing close to the arsenal of a Carlos Hernandez or Spencer Howard, but that didn’t stop Flexen from going 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 179 innings in 2021. That will be a tough act to repeat with just a 16.9% K-rate, and the most optimistic of the six projection systems on his Fangraphs page forecasts 10 wins and a 4.28 ERA. If he can maintain his 5.4% BB-rate he’ll have a nice floor as an innings eater on an emerging Mariners team, but there’s not much potential for more. (Ben Sanders)

138. Spencer Howard, SP, Texas Rangers (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 50)

Spencer Howard shot up the rankings in 2019, dominating the minors with a four-pitch mix headlined by a fastball that touched 100 MPH. He hasn’t come close to reaching his potential in MLB, where he put up a 7.43 ERA and 1.61 WHIP last season. He’s battled shoulder injuries, inconsistent velocity, and mechanical issues, and the Phillies eventually gave up on him and sent him to Texas as part of a package for veteran pitching. Howard still has significant upside, and it’s not unusual for top pitching prospects to find success after struggling early in the majors. He’s worth keeping an eye on, but your watchlist is a better spot for him than your rotation at this point. (Ben Sanders)

139. Patrick Corbin, SP, Washington Nationals (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 43)

Patrick Corbin was a popular bounce-back candidate heading into 2021. When Arizona lit him up for 10 runs in two innings in his second start of the season, suddenly that disappointing 2020 wasn’t so easy to write off as a small-sample fluke. He regained some lost velocity as the year went on, but finished with 5.82 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Corbin is pretty much a two-pitch guy who lives and dies with his slider, and while its 40.7% whiff rate last season wasn’t bad, that number was comfortably over 50% during his dominant 2018-19 campaigns. It’s possible he could reinvent himself as a crafty multi-pitch lefty, but that’s never really worked for him before. I’m out on him unless I see his slider get back to its unhittable best. (Ben Sanders)

140. Carlos Carrasco, SP, New York Mets (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 37)

Carlos Carrasco missed most of 2021 with a torn hamstring, then had bone fragments removed from his elbow in the offseason after struggling to a 6.04 ERA in 12 starts. He’s a tough Cookie – he came back from leukemia in 2019 and had a solid 2020 season, so I wouldn’t write him off yet. If there’s an encouraging thing about his 2021, it’s that his slider and curveball still had good whiff rates. He just didn’t throw them as often as usual, perhaps because of the elbow trouble. The age and health history make Carrasco far too risky to depend on, but there’s still enough upside that I like him as an inexpensive gamble for a win-now dynasty team. (Ben Sanders)

141. Logan T. Allen, 23 Cleveland Guardians

 

Logan Allen was drafted in the 2nd round, 56th overall in the 2020 MLB draft. Cleveland does have another Logan Allen on their team but we are talking about the 23 year old out of Florida International.  In 2021 Mr. Allen was able to pitch for two affiliates in the Guardians’ system. First in High-A posting an Earned Runs Average of 1.58 in 51.1 innings with a sexy Walks plus Hits/Innings Pitched of 0.97. Then in Double-A he posted a 2.85 ERA and an even tastier 0.88 WHIP. In 19 games started Logan has a terrific 11.56 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.  He is undersized at 6 foot and 190 pounds but is still projected as a starter because of his athleticism and ability to control his plus change-up. He also has a fastball that sits in the low 90s and a curveball that hasn’t quite caught up to the first two offerings.  We could see Allen in the majors as early as late September and he has a good chance of becoming a third or fourth option in the rotation. (Brian Shanks)

 

142. JT Brubaker, 28 Pittsburgh Pirates 

 

Not much went right for the Pirates offensively or defensively in 2021. The starting pitching staff was next to last in ERA and WHIP. JT Brubaker was certainly part of the problem with a bloated 5.36 ERA in 124.1 innings and gave up way too many home runs with 28. Some may say that he was just unlucky with the long ball but I would argue that luck is a huge part of the game. The 9.3 strikeouts per 9 are decent and are a building block. Maybe pick and choose your use of Brubaker as a spot starter and he could help you out in a pinch, but for the time being I’m going to search for better options on starting pitcher sleepers. (Brian Shanks)

 

143. Kyle Gibson, 34 Philadelphia Phillies 

 

Gibson had an interesting year in 2021, he started out the year with the Texas Rangers and was quite good. He had a 2.87 ERA, 1.177 Whip and 6-3 record in 19 Starts and made his first All-Star appearance. Then he was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies for Ian Kennedy and Spencer Howard. Unfortunately for the Phillies, Gibson came back to earth in the second half of the year. His stat line for the Phillies was a pedestrian 5.09 ERA, a 1.290 WHIP and a record of 4-6 in 12 starts. His second half was more in line with his career numbers so I would not be expecting him to replicate those first half numbers over a full season. If you need a back of the rotation guy to fill out your team Gibson will suffice but I would look for someone with a bit more promise. (Brian Shanks)

 

144. Jordan Balazovic, 23 Minnesota Twins

 

Drafted out of St. Martin Secondary School in Mississauga, Ontario during the 2016 MLB Draft, Jordan Balazovic was selected in the 5th round number 153rd overall. There is a lot to like here; a career 3.41 ERA in 324.2 innings pitched across 5 minor league seasons is a good thing to start with. He logged a 12.4 strikeout per 9 in 2019 and his WHIP was a low .0982. In 2021 he was called up to Double-A and he did some good things, with a 3.62 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 97 innings pitched. His WHIP popped up to 1.402 with 38 walks that he issued but for a 23 year old in Double-A I like how he is building towards the major leagues.  This is a targetable player with nice upside and an affordable asking price in most leagues. An interesting tidbit here is that only Atlanta’s Mike Soroka is a pitcher drafted in the first 5 rounds out of Canada that has pitched in the Major League. We could very well see him be number 2 by the end of 2022. (Brian Shanks)

 

145. Zack Greinke, 38 Houston Astros

 

Drafted in 1922 by the Brooklyn Robins with a blistering fastball clocking in at 51 miles per hour…..  

Jokes aside, I love watching and hearing about what Greinke does next, whether it is the 51 mph eephus or when he randomly steps up to the batter’s box and jacks a home run. From a pure fantasy standpoint I have to wonder how much he has left in the tank. He did throw 171 innings in 2021 and had decent results with a 4.16 ERA and 120 strikeouts. Unless you are rostering him from a purely sentimental standpoint, it may be time to move on.  (Brian Shanks)

 

146. Ian Seymour, 23 Tampa Bay Rays

 

A 2nd round draft pick in the 2020 MLB draft out of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Blacksburg, VA), Ian Seymour is another one of these guys that may be flying under the radar from the 2020 draft. Seymour quickly moved through the minor leagues and wound up starting 2 games in Triple-A.  Seymour finished the 2021 season with a crisp 1.95 ERA, 87 strikeouts, and 19 walks over the course of 55.1 innings in the minors. I gotta say if his performance was spanning a full two year period and we had not lost the year of 2020, we would be talking about a top 10 pitching prospect.  I will be carefully watching what he starts to do in 2021. If it’s strong I will be all over trading for him before his value skyrockets. (Brian Shanks)

 

147. Kris Bubic, 24 Kansas City Royals

 

This is a personal favorite of mine. I really think Bubic is on the verge of having a breakout campaign in 2022. His minor league stats in 2019 were terrific, pitching in Single-A (Full and Advanced) in 149.1 innings he had a 2.23 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. Those are elite numbers against younger competition. In 2020 he got the call to the big club and it didn’t go as well.  In 50 innings he finished with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.480. 2021 was much of the same with an ERA of 4.43. He is just flat out walking too many batters, something that was a non-issue in the minors. I truly believe he will fix this and we are gonna see a completely different pitcher, one that needs to be rostered, in 2022. (Brian Shanks)

 

148. Alex Cobb, 34 San Francisco Giants

 

I am really just ho-hum on Alex Cobb. He has a career 3.87 ERA, but nothing really jumps out to me to say he is either good or bad. I don’t want to use the word boring, so I’ll use serviceable and that my friends can win you matchups in fantasy baseball.  He won’t net you a ton of strikeouts but typically doesn’t get shelled. This is a great spot starter if you are in a pinch. (Brian Shanks)

 

149. Domingo German, 29 New York Yankees

 

Tough to write about someone with a past of personal issues and injuries. If we can see the 2019 German again then he is worth a look. At 26 years old in 2019 he was 18-4 with an ERA of 4.03, a WHIP of 1.147 and a strikeout per 9 innings of 9.6, across 24 games started. Everything before that and after that is a train wreck. I’ll take my chances elsewhere. (Brian Shanks)

 

150. Ryan Yarbrough, 30 Tampa Bay Rays

 

If he can put last year behind him and build off what he had going from 2018-2020 maybe we have something flirting with a sleeper. Pitching is such an odd thing to scout and dive deeper into the stat-lines. All it takes is for one hitter to see something along the lines of tipping a pitch and it’s game over. Then you add in the mental fortitude it takes to let everything go after you give up three straight hits preceding a granny salammy.  That reminds me of a line from one of my favorite sports movies: The Replacements. As quoted from the great Shane Falco:

Shane: You’re playing…

…and you think everything is going fine.

But then one thing goes wrong…

…and another…

…and another.

You try to fight back, but the harder

you fight, the deeper you sink.

Until you can’t move.

You can’t breathe…

…because you’re in over your head…

…like quicksand. (Brian Shanks)

151) Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

I’m sure it has happened before, but this is the first time I can remember seeing a player pitch at every level of the minor leagues in a single season. Strider did just that. He spent most of the season in Double-A where he struck out 94 batters in just 63 innings while also seeing time in Low A, High A, Triple-A, and the Majors. A bit buried in the depth of Atlanta’s starting pitcher stable we should expect to see him start the season in the minors, but it would not be a shock to see him pitch in the bullpen in the Major Leagues as the season wears on. If he can repeat his 2021 season in 2022, he could easily find himself in the top 100 of the SP list in 2023. (Paul Monte)

152) Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants, (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)

The Bay Area native did not earn the frequent flyer miles in 2021 as he spent the full season in San Jose pitching for the Giants in Low A. At just 19 years old he managed to toss 98.2 innings and tallied 157 strikeouts and 52 walks. The Giants seem content to let Harrison mature as a pitcher, pushing him up a level in 2022. Harrison added 3-4 MPH to his fastball between when the lefty was drafted to 2020 and his debut in 2021. If he can better control that pitch and lower his walks, he could be the next homegrown Giant Ace in 2025. (Paul Monte)

153) James Kaprielian, Oakland Athletics, (Age: 28, Previous Rank: NR)

The only remaining player from the three prospects the A’s received from the Yankees in the 2017 trade for Sonny Gray is Kaprielian. Finally healthy the 28-year-old was able to log 119.1 innings. That is significant as his career total was 102 since he was drafted in the first round of the 2015 draft. It’s tough to know what we will see from him in 2022, but his price is low enough to take the risk. He currently figures to slot in at the bottom of the A’s starting rotation and could get up to 150 IP if he can stay healthy. (Paul Monte)

154) Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers, (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 132)

Fantasy managers were enjoying the apparent breakout season when it was cut short after just nine starts. 50 innings with 44 K’s, 12BB’s, 2.88 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP came out of nowhere and ended with a UCL tear and Tommy John surgery in July. Having to sit on a pitcher for a full year makes rostering Turnbull a problem in 2022. Pay attention to the sporadic updates on his recovery and add him to your watchlist for a 2023 return. Even if he does make it back in 2023, temper your expectations as it’s more likely he shows his 2019 form (3-17, 4.61 ERA) than his 2021. (Paul Monte)

155) Michael Pineda, Free Agent, (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 105)

It’s hard to continue to invest in someone with an injury history like Pineda’s, but when he is out on the mound, he has been solid. 2021 saw him log 109.1 injury-filled innings and he ended the year with nine wins and a 3.62 ERA which indicators say was luck induced. He dropped to just 7.2 K/9 but kept his BB/9 in check at just 1.7. This deep on the list you will find older arms that once had promise, there is nothing sexy about a 33-year-old with an injury history. Pineda is a streamer, takes a drop in value in Quality Start leagues, and is still a free agent. (Paul Monte)

156) Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Dodgers, (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 70)

If you thought the 50 spot drop that Pineda took in the Starting Pitcher rankings was bad, don’t look at Heaney’s. This is a guy that could bring back some value with a bounce-back season. 2021 was a disaster as he posted an ERA above five for the first time since 2017. He was especially bad in New York as the Yankees dropped him from the rotation, the active roster, and then DFA’d him. His finishing ERA as a Yankee was 7.32 in 35.2 innings. Those numbers alone will depress his trade value or draft slot in 2022 and his new home with the Dodgers could be just what he needed. (Paul Monte)

157) Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks, (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 138)

Name recognition kept the 32-year-old in draft queues and trade talks in 2021 even though his first year in Arizona was a disaster. 2,034 regular-season innings and another 102.1 in the playoffs have taken their toll on his left arm and even a reset of expectations make this a tough hill to climb. If the cost matches, he can still be useful as your SP5 or SP6. He pitched just 146.1 innings, struck out 124 batters, and maintained a decent WHIP at 1.182. We know for sure that he has a spot in the rotation as he still has 3 years and $60 million left on his 5-year contract. (Paul Monte)

158) Ryan Pepiot, Los Angeles Dodgers, (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)

A third-round pick out of Butler in 2019, Pepiot pitched just 23.1 professional innings before minor league baseball shut down in 2020. He dominated Double-A in 2021 and earned a midseason promotion to Triple-A where he was unable to find the same success. 2022 will be a big year for the right-hander as he will take another shot at Triple-A batters. You need to adjust for the PCL, which is notorious for inflating ERA’s, but 7.13 paired with a significant drop in K rate is troublesome. With pitchers like Heaney and David Price currently penciled into the rotation, there may be available innings at the major league level. (Paul Monte)

159) Adrian Houser, Milwaukee Brewers, (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 146)

With guys like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta ahead of you in the rotation, it’s understandable that your accomplishments may get overlooked. That’s exactly what happened to Houser in 2021. Drafted in 2011 and debuting with the Brewers by pitching 2 innings in 2015, Houser finally made it back to the majors in 2018. He transitioned to a starting role full time in 2021 and posted a 1-6 record with a 5.30 ERA which somehow was enough to get him a look in 2022. He responded with a 10-win season, an ERA of just 3.22, and 142.1 innings pitched. All were career highs and expecting a repeat is a tall ask. It’s hard to have a career year and still lose ground in the dynasty rankings. (Paul Monte)

160) Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees, (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 95)

Another big dropper in the rankings and another pitcher recovering from an elbow injury. At one point Schmidt was a top 50 fantasy prospect on some lists and just getting back on the mound was a positive sign for the former first-round pick out of college. He will likely spend the season bouncing back and forth from Triple-A to the majors when the Yankees need an arm. He has pitched a combined 50.2 innings over the last three seasons and will look to build his stamina as he continues his return from injury. His Triple-A numbers were good, but most were abbreviated starts. (Paul Monte)

161. RYAN WEATHERS, SAN DIEGO PADRES (AGE: 22, PREVIOUS RANK: 160)

Weathers was used as a starter (and opener) as well as out of the bullpen last season. For the first two months of the season he was cruising with a 1.31 ERA and .90 WHIP over 34.1 innings pitcher, however, the script changed once June came around; finishing the season with 94.2 innings to a 5.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. While his average fastball at 94 mph is considered above league average, batters did damage with it for a 50.4 hard hit% and +9 run value. The encouraging thing here is that his slider has shown some promise for getting hitters out with a 25 whiff%. He’ll still be very young at 22 years of age for the 2022 season and as he gains more experience be able to make more adjustments.  (Andrew Jurewicz)

162. TAJ BRADLEY, TAMPA BAY RAYS (AGE: 21, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

This dude had a fantastic year between low and high-A sporting a 12-3 record with a 1.83 ERA and .93 WHIP over 103.1 innings. Bradley’s fastball and slider lead the way with 123 strikeouts to 31 walks. I’m actually surprised to see that he’s not ranked higher than where he is on this list considering what he’s done and in an organization that’s known for developing quality starting pitching. Next stop is double-A where more advanced hitters will test him. (Andrew Jurewicz)

163. LUIS MEDINA, NEW YORK YANKEES (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 174)

One of my favorite pitching prospects once you get past all the obvious bigger named SP prospects. Medina has rare stuff you cant teach with a fastball that’s peaked at 103 MPH. Command of pitches has always been the talk around Medina and with that goes reliever risk. I’m encouraged that’s not so much the case; he’s been lowering his walk rate each year as he matures into a professional pitcher. He’s not just all fastball either, bringing a curve ball considered a plus pitch that generates plenty of whiffs. If you can stomach the risk a chance on Medina might be your play! (Andrew Jurewicz)

164. DALLAS KEUCHEL, CHICAGO WHITE SOX (AGE: 34, PREVIOUS RANK: 85)

If White Sox want to seriously compete I’m not sure how they can keep relying on Keuchel. His advanced stats show he was in the bottom of the league for a number of categories; an ERA of 5.28 is ugly but an expected ERA of 6.20 isn’t better. Consider him a match up based streamer for fantasy purposes unless he makes adjustments to turn it around in 2022. (Andrew Jurewicz)

165. ETHAN SMALL, MILWAUKEE BREWERS (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 166)

Small doesn’t overpower hitters but he does a good job of keeping them off balance with a deceptive fastball changeup combination. Walks (21) were a bit of an issue last year after a promotion to triple-A but did a good job at limiting damage with a 2.06 ERA over 35 innings. Expecting to be back in triple-A to start 2022 for more experience, a promotion the big leagues is a real possibility if he gets off to a hot start or if there’s an injury. (Andrew Jurewicz)

166. GRIFFIN CANNING, LOS ANGELES ANGELES (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 87)

Canning falling in the rankings from 87 to 166 was a bit of a surprise. While the surface numbers weren’t great with an ERA of 5.60 and WHIP 1.48, I was encouraged to see an expected ERA of 4.70 and whiff% of 39.4 and 34.8 on slider and change up. Overall, he’ll need to do a better job of executing to create weak contact as last year he was at 2.2%. Might be an intriguing buy low candidate with the right offer. (Andrew Jurewicz)

167. DREY JAMESON, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Jameson definitely has stuff to get hitters out as its considered some of the best in the Diamondbacks system. At double-A he struck out 68 over 46.1 innings primary working with a fastball that averages 96 MPH and plus plus slider when its going. Could be on a fast track to the major leagues if he keeps up this ability to strike out batters. (Andrew Jurewicz)

168. BLAKE WALSTON, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (AGE: 21, PREVIOUS RANK: 187)

Back to back Diamondback pitching prospects! Walston is another quickly rising starting pitcher for for the Arizona ball club. The former 1st round pick finished the year off in high-A and along the way showed good velocity and command of his pitches as well as his game preparation. Dips in velocity as games went on and through the season did show up but to be fair its the most innings (95.2) he’s thrown in a few years; an opportunity to get stronger continued development for this young pitcher. (Andrew Jurewicz)

169. ADRIAN MOREJON, SAN DIEGO PADRES (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 135)

Premium stuff but durability is a serious question. Right now Morejon is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will miss a lot of the 2022 season. Still a pretty young pitcher you’d hope he sheds the injury prone tag. Consider him a nice stash for those leagues that have deep roster space because he’s got the ability to get the job done as he matures towards being a professional pitcher. (Andrew Jurewicz)

170. WADE MILEY, CHICAGO CUBS (AGE: 35, PREVIOUS RANK: 268)

Miley’s rebounded in our rankings from the previous year after turning in a nice 2021 season with 12-7 record and with 3.37 ERA over 163 innings pitched. He created a lot of weak contact along the way posting an 8.2% weak batted ball profile which is easily a career high. He’s a nice back end piece to starting rotation moving forward. (Andrew Jurewicz)

171. Luke Weaver, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 101)

Let’s face it, Luke Weaver is a startable pitcher against weaker teams. But, another thing that you have to face, is the fact that he has stayed relatively healthy once so far in 6 years when he posted just north of 136 innings in 2018. But those 5 other years he has pitched, he has unfortunately posted an average of just less than 56 innings. Taking a look at his career numbers, if he could post his average stat line of a 9.2 K/9, an ERA of 4.64, and WHIP of 1.364, you could roll him out against weaker teams(“Cough Colorado Cough”) and most likely get a good return. He’s 28, there is still a chance he figures out his health and completely turns it around, it’s just that I’m not exactly whole-heartedly betting on that. (Griffen Case)

172. Peyton Battenfield, Cleveland Guardians (Age: 24, Previous Rank: Unranked)

Quite the journeyman in 2021, the now Cleveland minor leaguer turned in strong numbers in High-A and Double-A. Going 103 innings sporting a 2.88 ERA, a 0.825 WHIP, and an 11.4 K/9. Battenfield flew up the rankings with this recent success and now with a strong year in the minors under his belt, promotions may be underway. After not getting to pitch in 2020, it was an exceptional way to get back into action. Keep an eye out for this young prospect, more early success could mean very good things for him. (Griffen Case)

173. Landon Knack, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 24, Previous Rank: Unranked)

Another minor leaguer that was unable to prove his worth in 2020, well he made sure to show what he could do last year by ending up in Double-A and providing a strong pitching line through 62.1 innings with a 3.18 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a solid 11.8 K/9. As a 24-year-old with fairly high draft value, more promotions will be in order if he continues these strong performances. LA is always competing, it could be a next-man-up type situation if starters in the big leagues are not performing. (Griffen Case)

174. Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox (Age: 22, Previous Rank: Unranked)

Now this is a kid that has some serious firepower. You would expect someone to rack of the strikeouts when being able to reach triple digits on the radar gun, and that is exactly what this young Boston prospect can do. Through 95.1 innings he dominated with a 12.5 K/9, the walk rate can be improved upon but he is only 22 and has time to work on it before experiencing Major League hitting. Keep a watchful eye on him, his stock could rise fast. (Griffen Case)

175. Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 234)

It is often forgotten that Freeland was 4th in Cy Young Award votes back in 2018 with a 2.85 ERA and over 200 innings, and for good reason. His 2019 and 2020 were too risky to pick him up off the waiver wire because of his high chance of blowing up in the first couple innings. Diving into his 2021 season, which was shortened due to injuries, his numbers are much stronger than they seem. Overall, Kyle Freeland threw 120.2 innings, an ERA of 4.33, a 7.83 K/9, and a 1.417 WHIP. At first glance, not the most enticing numbers for a contact pitcher. However, almost all of these statistics were majorly affected by the first 5 games coming off of his shoulder injury. In those first 5 games, he threw for 20.2 innings, had a WHIP of 2.37, a K/9 of 5.35, and an ERA of 9.58. Absolutely horrendous, but how many times have we seen a pitcher come back from a shoulder injury and struggle for the first couple starts? Not uncommon, let’s take a look at the rest of the year he had after those first 5 starts. From June 22 to September 28th Freeland had 18 overall starts, 11 of them were quality starts. In those 18 starts, Freeland threw for 100 innings, had a WHIP of 1.24, a K/9 of 8.37, and an ERA of 3.24. That is a quality pitcher, don’t expect to get outstanding strikeout numbers from him. Being more of a contact pitcher in Colorado is not exactly ideal for Freeland. However with uncertainty in almost every aspect of the Rockies organization, who’s to say that he won’t find his way out of there and into more friendly confines? Moving to a new organization could be something that may help Freeland statistically, however looking at the last 18 starts of last season shows that he is moving in the right direction. Congratulations to all of those that played him in their playoff rounds as he would have paid off tremendously. Look to pick up Freeland in the mid-late to late rounds in any type of league next year as his projected value is still low after most everyone experienced a little bit of his 2019-2020 seasons. For the leagues that account for quality starts, this Colorado native could prove to be invaluable for the price you would have to pay to get him. (Griffen Case)

176. Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 44)

Aaaaaaand we are back to the Bundy of old. Quite the drop in rankings from last year, and for good reason, it looked like he was back in Baltimore, but worse.  It was quite hopeful to take a bet on Bundy after an exceptional performance in 2020, whether it was the shortened season or a new team that kicked him into gear last year, whatever it was, he did not have it in 2021. With his worst K-BB% in years, and an ERA that ballooned even past his years in Camden Yards, this now 6-year vet is not trending in the right direction. The one comfort, if you could even call it that, is that his xERA is close to 4.64 compared to his 6.06 ERA. But even if his ERA dropped that much, his stat line still does not impress. Not exactly someone I would be counting on to deliver strong starts throughout the year. (Griffen Case)

177. Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians (Age: 22, Previous Rank: Unranked)

After declining the Rays in 2017, Williams played out his college years and was triumphant in gaining himself much higher draft value. Now he enters Cleveland’s minor league system after being drafted in the 1st round. He went from being a 30th round pick to 1st round, I tip my hat to him for knowing his own worth. He dominated his last year at East Carolina, and through 81 innings he sported a 1.88 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, and an astounding 14.4 K/9. He will need to build up arm strength as the most he ever pitched in one year during college was 81 innings. That will be an important step for him to make as he enters professional baseball. (Griffen Case)

178. Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 157)

Ah geez another Diamondback pitcher. Kelly had a fine year last year. Not like the polished “fine” but the “fine” you get when you ask your significant other if they are all right… Serviceable when you take it at face value but in the long run for dynasty, this contact pitcher does not provide the complete picture that you need in the long run, and when you take that chance you know it’ll eventually get you in trouble. As long as his control continues to stay strong, he can be used for the eventual quality start (10 in 2021 out of 27 starts), once again lock him in against the weaker teams(once again, the Rockies) but be careful when starting him against the monster southern trio of the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants. (Griffen Case)

179. Cole Irvin, Oakland A’s (Age: 28, Previous Rank: Unranked)

A very large step forward for 28-year-old in 2021. Not the prettiest K/9(9.3) and as it goes for WHIP and ERA they were both mediocre at best (1.329 and 4.24). But a whopping 178 innings and 15 quality starts out of 32 starts is pretty impressive. Longevity such as this will carve out a strong workload and rotation spot if it can be continued, the next thing that he needs to work on to become more fantasy relevant is somehow bump up those strikeouts and/or limit the base knocks. Be wary of that xERA, his contact first approach can always be a dangerous game. (Griffen Case)

180. Gunnar Hoglund, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 22, Previous Rank: Unranked)

Honestly what a great name for a pitcher. Even after suffering Tommy John, the Blue Jays still deemed him worth the risk to pick him 19th overall in the 2021 draft. Hoglund sports strong strikeout to walk ratios with the ability to keep runners off the scoreboard, it is true that he will not even see any play time for several months into the season due to his injury. The thought of him being in the Majors may be years from now, but if you have the space in your minor league spots, he should be rostered. (Griffen Case)

181. Slade Cecconi, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 240)

After being drafted 33rd overall in the 2020 draft, Cecconi unfortunately faced a handful of injuries throughout 2021, one of them being an elbow injury that shut him down for the year. He put up reasonable numbers in the midst of all the injuries, with a 4.12 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 9.6 K/9 through 59 innings in High-A ball. A good start to his professional campaign, not spectacular, but let’s hope he can stay healthy and begin to build up his arm strength. (Griffen Case

182. Will Bednar, San Franscisco Giants (Age: 21, Previous Rank: Unranked)

The Most Outstanding Player of the 2021 College World Series is now in the Giants organization after being drafted 14th overall. A great way to end his college career, and a great way to join professional ball. What seems like a stud with movement attached to every pitch, Bednar eventually made it up to Low-A and made the most of his 7 innings giving up only 1 run and striking out 6. His college stats indicate that his strikeout rate will develop strongly as he sported a 13.5 K/9 over 107.2 innings in college, it will be some time before he gets a glimpse of the Majors, but if you have the room grab him while you can. (Griffen Case)

183. Matt Allan, New York Mets (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 168)

Son of a gun, another kid with Tommy. It’s almost like a right of passage now. Even with this injury, his ranking only slightly dropped. He is still only 20, the Mets are going to get him healthy, and we may not see him for the greater part of 2022, but if you are expecting this kid to see major league ball anytime soon you are sorely mistaken. Let’s all just hope he can run into Scherzer and Degrom more than a couple times to get some pointers. (Griffen Case)

184. Andrew Painter, Philidelphia Phillies, (Age: 18, Previous Rank: Unranked)

Plucked right out of high school, Andrew Painter was drafted 13th in the 2021 draft to the Phillies. At 6’6” his velocity will look faster than it is, and he still has time to improve that arm strength in the minors. And boy, is there a lot of time for him to grow in the minors. It will be very interesting to see how his first year of professional ball goes, if he dominates expect him to fly up the rankings. (Griffen Case)

185. Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 288)

A lot of steps were taken in the right direction in 2021 for Austin Gomber. The new Colorado pitcher surprisingly had his best year with his new home being in Coors Field. Through 23 starts he recorded 11 quality starts with a 1.24 WHIP. The strikeouts are close to a 9 K/9 and if it weren’t for the second half that he had the numbers would have looked much better. Unfortunately, he suffered multiple injuries that side-tracked his progress that may have had a part in his up and down success in 2021. Hopefully he can stay healthy for 2022 as the Rockies rotation can only be stretched so thin. (Griffen Case)

186. Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 206)

You have been a real trooper for sticking with Reynaldo Lopez through the early hype and the subsequent less than average play. If you still have him his stock has dropped through the years to the point to where it would be almost pointless to sell him and too painful to drop him, he has still shown glimpses of having strong potential as a starter. But, more often than not, he actually did better in relief than he did starting games. The xERA and xWHIP aren’t indicative of greener pastures in the future, maybe a permanent move to the pen will revitalize his career? Maybe one of those multi-inning relievers? Kind of a mixed report, but still trying to hold out hope. (Griffen Case)

187. Matthew Boyd, Free Agent (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 106)

Who else almost bought into the strong first half this 31-year-old Tiger (now free agent) had in 2021? I swear I almost tried to trade for him several different times, luckily never pulled the trigger and missed out on him missing the second half of the year with an elbow injury. Is it too much to ask for that he return to his 2019 season when he struck out 238 over 185 innings? The ERA has never been something to write home about, settling somewhere in the mid 4s although in 2021 he did put up a 3.89 over those 79 innings. But when you do a double take, you would also see the xERA of 4.64. A mixed bag of feelings for the 7-year vet, an unfortunate injury could have prevented him from breaking out from his norm. A late flier could pay off with decent returns if he comes back strong from his elbow injury, but don’t expect too much. (Griffen Case)

188. Forrest Whitley, Houston Astros (Age: 25, Previous Rank 58)

Forrest Whitley has had quite the bumpy ride so far, and experienced quite the fall in our rankings since last year. He has had multiple injuries that have side-tracked his progress and kept him from joining the Astros. Drafted in 2016 with a first-round pick, the Astros could not have foreseen all these injuries, with the most recent being Tommy John, in which he had surgery in March 2021. If you are holding onto the potential that he held going into 2021, he still has quite some time to recover from surgery, and will most likely spend some more time down in the minors to ramp back up. The ERA most likely will not stay at that level, but the 25-year-old definitely improved his outlook for the future. (Griffen Case)

189. Cody Morris, Cleveland Guardians (Age: 25, Previous Rank: Unranked)

Well maybe not having a season in 2020 was the best thing that could have possibly happened for Cody Morris. He logged a 1.62 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 13.7 K/9 in three different levels through 61 innings which eventually earned him a spot on Cleveland’s 40-man roster. Look for him in Spring Training, if he is able to continue his recent success he may make the squad to start out the year. (Griffen Case)

190. Jackson Rutledge, Washington Nationals (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 139)

Well, I guess the bigger they are the harder they fall right? This 6’8” behemoth took quite the dip in the rankings since last year with a year in the minors riddled with blisters, shoulder problems, an ERA that will make you adjust your glasses. The 22-year old 1st round pick on the Nats has quite the journey to make before he makes it up to the majors, but the fact that he was invited to Spring Training last year is always a good sign. The young prospect has a very promising arsenal, and once again he is 6’8”, he’s almost touching home when he releases, so hold on to hope for him to get healthy and fight for promotions. (Griffen Case)

191. Jake Odorizzi, Houston Astros (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 119)

It’s not typically a good look for a 32-year-old to be the 6th starter/swing man for a team, but when that team has injury/workload concerns for every pitcher in their starting 5, it’s a safe bet that he’ll get his shot. Odorizzi could generously be described as post-post-hype, but there really isn’t much to get excited about. He has a fastball that plays better than you’d expect with his velocity due to his usage at the top of the zone. Most of his off-speed stuff underwhelms, but he may be the best case study for the inherent value added with having additional offerings, regardless of their performance. He will likely get into 15+ starts, and could find a regular role over the course of the next few years. (Aaron Cumming)

192. Matt Canterino, Minnesota Twins (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 314)

Matt Canterino had a 53.5% strikeout rate last year.

Ok, ok. Settle down. As a 23-year-old in Single-A and High-A, that 23 inning sample probably doesn’t mean much. But it sure is nice to look at. Canterino dealt with elbow injuries last season that prevented him from advancing further through the minor leagues. If he can stay healthy, his unique delivery and outstanding stuff could propel him to the majors very quickly. He was ranked as the 128th overall prospect by Fangraphs before last season, and the Twins roster is starved for an exciting starting pitcher. (Aaron Cumming)

193. Jake Eder, Miami Marlins (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

Eder finds himself this low on this list mostly because he got Tommy John surgery in August and is unlikely to pitch in 2022. The Marlins started him on an aggressive path in his first professional year, immediately launching him into Double-A competition. For the 70+ innings he threw there, he thrived. He finished with a miniscule 1.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, accompanied by a stunning 34.5% strikeout rate and a respectable 9.4% walk rate. While that BB-rate was worse than average, it was a good mark for a pitcher that came in with command issues. The biggest hurdle for Eder is that his biggest weakness is also the most difficult aspect of TJ recovery: finding your control. If he can get through the process healthy, Miami has demonstrated enough with their pitching development that he could prove to be a huge value here. (Aaron Cumming)

194. Brailyn Márquez, Chicago Cubs (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 120)

“Lingering shoulder injury” is practically a death nail for most pitchers. With Márquez getting a grand total of two outs in game action over the last two years, there is a lot of risk here. But the upside is tremendous. He was a hard throwing, top-tier prospect going into 2021, and is by all accounts healthy now. He has an overwhelming fastball that touches triple digits regularly, and keeps hitters off-balance just as much with his pitch mix as with his erratic nature. The Cubs will presumably ease him back up to a starter’s workload, but they could likely use his services pretty quickly with the big league club. He seems destined for the bullpen, but there’s enough here to take the risk and see if he can gain more control of the strike zone. (Aaron Cumming)

195. David Peterson, New York Mets (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 129)

Peterson earned a reputation as a strike thrower as a prospect, posting a walk rate under 6.5% across all minor league levels. The disjointed 2020 campaign seemed to hinder that ability, and he spiked a rate nearly double that during his major league debut. In 2021, he seemed to regain his form a bit and it helped him get more strikeouts as well. Even though the results weren’t there, he showed improvement before needing surgery for a broken foot. He doesn’t have a very exciting profile, but could find success as an innings eater that doesn’t get burned by allowing extra traffic on the base paths. (Aaron Cumming)

196. José Suarez, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)

Suarez has some risk of being a long relief pitcher, even on a team that has historically craved any semblance of a passable starting pitcher. His fastball took a big leap forward in its velocity right before making the majors, but still sits in the low 90s. He lost some command with that velo bump, but the tradeoff hardly seems worth it, as his strikeout rate is still subpar. Even with the additions of Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to the pitching staff, the front office and Joe Maddon have been on record as saying that Suarez will be in their 6-man rotation to start 2022. It shouldn’t take long to find an upgrade, though, especially if Reid Detmers is on the outside of that group out of Spring Training. Suarez is worth a late flier to see if he sticks, but there isn’t much to get excited about. (Aaron Cumming)

197. Zach Davies, Free Agent (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 124)

When Davies was traded to the Cubs from the Padres, there was a lot of wish casting that he could find a way to more closely imitate his new teammate, Kyle Hendricks. Unfortunately for both pitchers, Davies sort of did just that. His walk rate ballooned to a career high and his strikeout rate dropped significantly from a career best the year before. Even though it feels like he’s been around forever, Davies will only be 29 years old on Opening Day, and presents a reliable option as an innings eater for a major league team. At this ranking for dynasty baseball, he can be a safe injury fill-in at the back end of a rotation, or a placeholder for prospects coming up on a rebuilding team. (Aaron Cumming)

198. Michael Wacha, Boston Red Sox (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 247)

The market has never gotten Wacha right. We were too high on him when he came up and tantalized him with an impressive rookie season in 2013. We abandoned him after a rough 2016 showing. Some people jumped back on the bandwagon after 2018 when he pitched to a 3.20 ERA. Then the Mets signed him to a one year deal before 2020 and were rewarded with a 6.62 ERA. But the Rays noted that his underlying numbers were actually decent and signed him to their own one year deal for last year. He only had a 5.05 ERA, but a much more palatable 3.91 xFIP. He tweaked his mix and said he felt fully healthy for the first time in his career, so now it’s the Red Sox turn to give him a shot on a one year deal. If he can get a little bit luckier and stay healthy, he will be well worth the investment. (Aaron Cumming)

199. Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 78)

Clearly, these ranks were completed before this tweet was shared:

If Keller is now touching 100 MPH, that instantly makes him more intriguing. He has the most fascinating history of alternating under- and over-performing his ERA estimators by huge margins. In 2019, he had a 7.13 ERA with just a 3.19 FIP; 2020 reversed that to the opposite extreme with a 2.91 ERA and 6.75 FIP; then back the other way again in 2021 with a 6.17 ERA and 4.30 FIP. At some point, water has to find its level. If Keller’s true talent was around that 4.30 mark, and he’s now added more velocity, he could take a big step forward. The Pirates have absolutely no reason not to give him full, and at just 25 years old, he is more than worth the flier. (Aaron Cumming)

200. Kyle Muller, Atlanta Braves (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 281)

I haven’t found any official records to confirm this, but I believe Kyle Muller is 8 feet tall. He was a 2020 alt-site success story, with reports coming from the organization that he used his massive frame to get his fastball up to the mid-90s, even touching 98 MPH. He added a slider to his game, and was poised to break out in 2021. Unfortunately, that velocity spike didn’t stick, and his long levers have exposed his inability to repeat and stay in the strike zone. Muller will be competing with Tucker Davidson for a spot in the Braves rotation, and with Davidson being a touch older and getting an unexpected start in the World Series, it would seem he has the leg up. If Muller starts in the minors and regains that velocity alongside a new feel for his pitches, he will quickly get another shot. (Aaron Cumming)

The Author

Bob Osgood

Bob Osgood

Previous post

TDG 2022 PLAYERS TO TARGET: STARTING PITCHER

Next post

TDG 2022 PLAYERS TO AVOID: STARTING PITCHER