Continuing with our highlights of the league’s top Starting Pitchers, as judged by our collection of industry experts, below are the 51st through the 130th ranked players in the league.

51. Luis Patino, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 59)

Luis Patino came over to the Rays at the very end of 2020 along with 3 other prospects for Blake Snell. It seemed like the Rays again got the better of their trading partner (a theme with SDP front office?). Patino at the time was a top 20 prospect overall. He struggled in 2021 earning 15 starts, striking out less than a batter an inning with xFIP a half a point higher than his actual performance. His 4 seamer seems to be his achilles heel. It has velocity, but doesn’t seem to be fooling hitters or preventing hard contact. He is young enough in an outstanding organization for development so long term I am still hopeful he puts it all together and becomes a SP 2-3 in fantasy. For this year unfortunately I wouldn’t be counting on him to be a solid everyday contributor. (Sam Wirsching)

52. George Kirby, Seattle Mariners (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 74)

My  #1 pitching prospect coming into the 2022 season (TDG has him as the #3 pitching prospect) I am all in on what George Kirby is doing and look to roster him in all of my dynasty teams. The Mariner’s first round pick in 2019 out of Elon, scouts were drawn to his pinpoint control. In fact between his last year in college and his first taste of pro ball that fall he struck out 132 batters in 111 innings and walked… six. All he has done with the Mariners is worked and shown significant growth. George has increased his velocity as he sits high 90’s and can get to 102. His offerings include a plus slider and a changeup. Next year he will be a top 30 dynasty asset. (Sam Wirsching)

53. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 48)

Drafted in the 9th round of the 2018 draft from Seattle University, Tarik Skubal was an arm to dream on. In college and the minors his K/9 numbers were off the chart. In 2019 at AA Erie he had 17.4 K/9 in 9 starts. The future was bright. And so in 2020 he made his debut and in 2021 he was a fixture in the starting rotation. His numbers in the majors however have shown some real concern. In spite of decent strikeout and walk rates Tarik gives up hard contact when batters make contact. Skubal is young and seemed to settle down as he went in 2021. The Tigers limited his innings at the end of the season. My hope is that it pays off for learning and saving his arm. If he can continue to grow he could be a pitcher that anchors that Detroit staff for years to come. (Sam Wirsching)

54. Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 75)

With Marcus it is all about limiting baserunners. While he doesn’t have elite strikeout numbers, he does elicit good ground ball rates and he doesn’t walk many batters. And as I have mentioned before, I value a players mental make up. And Stroman seems to have just that: a strong mental approach. He doesn’t get rattled easily and so his success is going to depend on the defense behind him. With newcomers to the majors at all four infield spots there are some concerns with how they will play behind him. Marcus had an excellent season in 2021 with the Mets. He added a split change that seemed to make all of his offerings better. I don’t think he will ever be an ace, but he definitely belongs as an SP 3 on any roster. Lastly he is also a great follow on Twitter. (Sam Wirsching)

55. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros (Age: 38, Previous Rank: 111)

So sometimes you know you are writing about someone who needs no introduction. If you have been playing fantasy baseball at all the past few years you know about Verlander. For most of his career he has been an anchor on any team he is on. Fantasy or real life. But he hasn’t pitched in over 2 years after having Tommy John surgery in 2020. The surgery and rehab for TJ has gotten much better in the past decade. And older players are staying around because of heightened awareness of how to heal properly. Father time is undefeated unfortunately, so it isn’t a question of if, but when. At 38 he is no longer a target in dynasty unless you are on a win now team. I wish him all the success this upcoming year, but I am out on Justin. There is no optimism that he pitches after the 2022 season. As a fan of real life baseball, I hope I am wrong. (Sam Wirsching)

56. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 103)

Hunter Greene’s fastball/slider combo has had us dynasty managers drooling for years, and for good reason! He certainly can hurl the rock, and although his overall statline for 2021 wasn’t all roses, there’s plenty to keep dreaming on. I have him ranked at #82, well below the consensus.

Here’s why: while I love to daydream about high-upside prospects as much as the next person, I rarely find myself pushing up pitching prospects in my rankings. Rather, I heavily emphasize pitchers who have MLB experience, knowing full well how hard it can be to break that cup of coffee barrier. In fact, I think the fact that I have him in my top-100 says I like him a lot! And that 11.8 K/9 across 106.1 AA and AAA innings will surely keep my toes wet in in the Hunter Greene pool. That being said, hope for the best, but expect an adjustment period over the next few years. (Taylor Case)

57. Luis Severino, New York Yankees (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 47)

Luis Severino has had an unfortunately injury-plagued couple years. He appears to be on the mend, but the last we saw him handle a full starter’s workload was 2018. I have him ranked as my #77 starting pitcher heading in to 2022.

Here’s why: well, I actually already said it above. From 2017-2018, Severino blew us all away with 384.2 excellent innings of baseball, pitching to a 3.18 ERA (3.01 FIP), 450 strikeouts, and 33 wins along the way. Since then, he’s pitched 18 innings. Those innings have been good, but alas. He is a very talented pitcher, but I’m not certain what his role is yet on this current Yankees roster. Do they limit innings and treat his arm with extreme care? Do they cut him loose and let him throw 150+ innings? Who can say, but the uncertainty was enough for me to knock him down a few spots, at least for now. (Taylor Case)

58. Chris Bassitt, Oakland Athletics (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 102)

Finally someone I have ranked above the consensus! Chris Bassitt rounded out 2021 with a nice 12-4 record, 3.15 ERA (3.34 FIP), 159 strikeouts, and a delicious 1.06 WHIP across 27 starts and 157.1 innings. I have him at #50, just a smidge above the consensus rankings.

Here’s why: if Bassitt had not missed a month’s worth of games in between August and September, I think there’s a good chance he’d be ranked higher here. If we take out the one start that he left early due to his head injury, he averaged 6 innings per start, and had a 3.00 ERA! Yes, he’s a year older. Yes, he outpitched his xERA. None of that bugs me, as I think early-30’s pitchers can often be the (oft-overlooked) key to winning your pitching categories, and he’s outpitched expectations for a few years now. I don’t expect the same ERA close to 3.00 in 2022, but I really dig his career-best 19% K-BB% from 2021. Target with confidence. (Taylor Case)

59. John Means, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 96)

I’m not sure what to make of John Means. On the one hand, he had a great 18% K-BB% in 2021 and should hopefully benefit from the new outfield perimeter at Camden Yards. On the other hand, the strikeout potential isn’t great, the team he plays for isn’t great, and he spent several weeks on the injured list in 2021 with a shoulder strain. I have him at #65.

Here’s why: I do think that Means is a solid SP3 or SP4, but can he keep this up? The homers were down this year, but still leaving the park at an above-average 15% of the time. And if the innings volume isn’t there…well, here’s hoping the pushed fences help this year, he can keep the ball in the yard, and get the velocity back up to where it was in 2020. For some reason, I just have a weird feeling about him this year. (Taylor Case)

60. Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 113)

Apparently, I’m much lower than the consensus on Sean Manaea. He finished 2021 with an 11-10 record, 3.91 ERA, and 194 strikeouts across 32 starts and 179.1 innings. That’s plenty awesome for fantasy purposes, and I’m starting to think I need to give him a second chance. I had him at #91.

Here’s why: …I’m actually kind of stumped on this one. Maybe I’m still holding on to the injury-prone days of 2017-2019? Maybe I just didn’t get to watch him pitch much last season? I’m genuinely stumped as to how Sean Manaea had the 21^st most strikeouts last season with a sub-4.00 ERA and 32 starts last season. I’m not sure exactly what he does particularly well, but apparently, when healthy, he does a little bit of everything well enough.

Am…am I targeting Sean Manaea now? I believe I am. (Taylor Case)

61. SONNY GRAY, CINCINNATI REDS (AGE: 32, PREVIOUS RANK: 24)

Sometimes it’s easy overlook Gray as he’s now starting to enter the mid to late stages of his career but he continues to be a quality arm for any competing dynasty team as well as a good trade target for those teams. Over 135 innings pitched last year he struck out 155 batters with a 4.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, however, the expected ERA of 3.25 that suggests he was even a bit unlucky. He did see the injured list 3 separate times in 2021 which is something to keep an eye on if this starts to become an injury prone trend. (Andrew Jurewicz)

62. AARON ASHBY, MILWAUKEE BREWERS (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Ashby has been trending upward in the Brewers organization for the last several years; first winning a 2019 minor league pitcher of the year award and then by reportedly being their best pitcher during 2020 instructional league. He made his major league debut last year and has since seen his stock climb sharply having an opportunity to crack the Brewer’s rotation that’s already one of the best in the league. Throwing his slider 205 times last year, it’s shown that it can be a true put away pitch with a 42 whiff% and .079 expected batting average getting both left and right handed batters out. (Andrew Jurewicz)

63. NOAH SYNDERGAARD, ANAHEIM ANGELS (AGE: 29, PREVIOUS RANK: 36)

Synergaard signed a one year prove it deal with the Angels this past off season and hope’s to return to his former self where he was outstanding from 2015 to 2019. There’s certainly some risk here since he’s missed almost 2 years but the rewards could be great for those who are comfortable with the risk. It was nice to see him throw a couple innings at the end of last season which were more important to him getting back than what the results were of those innings. (Andrew Jurewicz)

64. JACK LEITER, TEXAS RANGERS (AGE: 22, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

There’s a lot of hype around Leiter and rightfully so after an elite season at Vanderbilt with 179 strikeouts over 110 innings on his way to becoming the #2 overall pick by the Rangers. The top pitching prospect for upcoming first year player draft has electric stuff for a super high ceiling with four plus to plus plus pitches in his arsenal (fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider). He’ll need to work to create enough angle on his pitches to avoid becoming homer prone which is something that did show up a bit in college. (Andrew Jurewicz)

65. PATRICK SANDOVAL, ANAHEIM ANGELS (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 195)

Have the Angels finally developed some pitching? Sure looks like it and Sandoval gets a big boost in rankings since last year as he’s projected for the starting rotation. The changeup is standing out as his best pitch producing a -7 run value along with a 51.4 whiff% but overall he does a good job of mixing his pitches well. (Andrew Jurewicz)

66. JESUS LUZARDO, MIAMI MARLINS (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: 18)

Luzardo had a rough season last year posting a 6.61 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 95.1 innings but still averaged over a strikeout per inning. A mid season trade found him in Miami and the optimism is still there for the once highly touted prospect as Miami has a knack for developing young pitching lately. He was hurt most by his fastball with a +12 run value and only generated a 19.9 whiff%; he’ll need to improve using this pitch more effectively for setting up secondary offerings. Finishing the season strong with an 11 strikeout performance over 5.1 innings for his last appearance was certainly encouraging. (Andrew Jurewicz)

67. CHARLIE MORTON, ATLANTA BRAVES (AGE: 38, PREVIOUS RANK: 67)

He’s still force to be reckoned with and isn’t slowing down yet as he signed a one year deal to stay with the Braves with a club option for 2023. After an off 2020, Morton’s elite curveball returned to form with an an eye popping -21 run value to go with a 40.1 whiff% and 40.3 K%. Look for more of the same from Morton for 2022 and perhaps target for a trade if you’re a win now team in need of pitching help. (Andrew Jurewicz)

68. AARON CIVALE, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 63)

Civale isn’t going to blow you away with strikeouts but he knows how to get guys out and put his team in a position to win games. His line for last year 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.12 WHIP; though his expected ERA was about a point higher a 4.83. You’ll still take those results. His go to pitch has been the cutter and threw it the most against left handed batters at 35.5% of the time. Overall, the pitch generated a -14 run value but a 20.1% whiff rate so he’s using it effectively to create weaker contact. (Andrew Jurewicz)

69. TRISTON MCKENZIE, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 76)

It’s easy to get excited for when you see McKenzie sports two breaking pitches with 40+ whiff% from the 2021 season. However, it’s his fastball he’s throwing 60+% of the time and it’s closer to below league average velocity at 92.1 MPH. He’ll need to do a better working ahead of hitters not to get himself stuck in fastball counts as that’s where he’s been getting hurt the most. Remain optimistic adjustments will come with more experience as Cleveland knows how to develop pitchers, obviously. (Andrew Jurewicz)

70. JOSIAH GRAY, WASHINGTON NATIONALS (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: 61)

Let’s run it back with another young pitcher with two breaking pitches that have 40+ whiff%. Gray now finds himself as a major part of the Nationals rebuild in a race to keep their franchise player happy,  Juan Soto. He posted 76 strikeouts over 70.2 innings pitched with a 5.48 ERA and 1.36 WHIP; though suggests he pitched a bit better than his front line numbers would suggest. Candidate for a breakout season in the making! (Andrew Jurewicz)

71. Jose Urquidy, Houston Astros (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 81)

Jose Urquidy busted out in the minors in 2019 and kept on plugging away after he was called up to the MLB to the tune of a sparkling 20% K%-BB% (league average is typically around 14%) and a 3.95 ERA. Since then, he has continued to post sub-4.00 ERAs and strong walk rates, but his K% has regressed to below MLB average. His velocities and pitch mix are stable, however, and he has a strong track record across the MILB and MLB. Expect more of the same in 2022, a low 4s ERA, an above average K%-BB% rate, and a good number of homers allowed stemming from a high number of fly balls allowed. (Jordan Rosenblum)

72. Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 88)

Nick Lodolo put up some of the most eye-popping numbers across the minor leagues last year, affirming the Reds decision to draft him 9^th overall in 2019. He is now the rare pitching prospect to actually project well immediately out of the gate according to most projection systems, with ATC the most bullish at 25.4 K% and 7.4 BB%. He’s got the pedigree; he’s got the numbers—the only question is health, as he missed time with shoulder fatigue last year. However, he’s expected to compete for a spot in the rotation this Spring. (Jordan Rosenblum)

73. Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 26, Previous Rank: NR)

Never a standout prospect in the minors, Ranger Suarez took a major step forward in 2021, with increased velocity, an excellent 18% K%-BB%, and an elite groundball rate. He shifted between relief and starting roles but dominated to a similar extent in both. Given his less stellar career track record, the Big Four projection systems (ATC, Steamer, THE BAT, and ZiPS) expect K% and BB% regression, and fantasy managers should be content with a sub-4 ERA rather than expect a sub-2 ERA like he managed in 2021. Still, he does an amazing job keeping the ball on the ground and can be counted on in the middle of your dynasty rotation. (Jordan Rosenblum)

74. Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 165)

Tanner Houck is another young pitcher to breakout only after reaching the major leagues. Across 16 career MLB starts and 81 innings pitched, he has struck out a whopping 31% of batters, while only walking 8.6% and keeping the ball on the ground with an above average launch angle allowed. His ERA (2.93) and xFIP (3.31) have both been elite as well. Typically, a young guy with statistics like these, plus a strong stuff+ score (stuff+ is a metric published at The Athletic that rates the quality of a pitcher’s stuff) would rank a lot higher. He is currently the 6^th projected starting pitcher in the Red Sox rotation, however, and dynasty managers are anxious about a potential bullpen role. Further, the Big Four projection systems forecast regression, seeing a more above average than elite skill set. While expecting some regression is wise considering his smallish sample of dominance and forgettable minor league track record, his upside is considerable. The Red Sox will have a hard time keeping Houck from their rotation. (Jordan Rosenblum)

75. Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 136)

Detmers versus minor league hitters was like a cat toying with mice—he posted a historically dominant K%-BB% across Double-A and Triple-A, looking like a steal for the Angels at 10^th overall in the 2020 draft. Upon his callup, MLB hitters flipped the script on him and he became the mouse. One has to really stretch to find something appealing in his MLB debut other than the fact that it was tiny—only 5 starts. RosterResource does not expect him to open in the rotation, but he should get plenty of innings this year. Considering his youth, pedigree, and minor league dominance, expect him to eventually settle in as a high K, low BB, high HR/9 mid-tier starting pitcher, with upside for more. (Jordan Rosenblum)

76. Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 49)

In his first 179 innings in the majors, Casey Mize has a slightly above average ERA, and a slightly below average FIP and xFIP, solid, but not quite what was expected for the former #1 overall draft pick. He does keep the ball down and limit walks but also struggles to miss bats. His average-ish stuff-based metrics do not stand out either. Nonetheless, he should continue to eat innings and keep the ball in the park, making him, at minimum, a solid piece at the backend of your dynasty rotation. Moreover, he’s young and with excellent pedigree, with room for growth. (Jordan Rosenblum)

77. Anthony DeSclafani, San Francisco Giants (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 162)

DeSclafani bounced back from a very rough 2020, with a 3.17 ERA and 3.95 xFIP in 2021, earning him a three-year deal to remain in San Francisco. Projections and recent career peripherals tend to rate him as a slightly above average pitcher, and he can be counted on for a bunch of innings after racking up 167 in 2021. DeSclafani is a fine option to round out the backend of your dynasty rotation. (Jordan Rosenblum)

78. Mike Clevinger, San Diego Padres (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 54)

Look no further for evidence of the Tommy John discount than our ranking of Mike Clevinger, FanGraphs Depth Charts projections’ 28^th best projected pitcher for 2022. He’s expected to be ready for the start of 2022 and the Big Four projections are nearly unanimous in their belief in his ability to discover his pre-TJ form, with only THE BAT partially dissenting with an ERA projection over 3.8 (4.19). If he shows he’s healthy, expect him to rank a fair amount higher for us next year…and if you ever find yourself out of contention, make sure you reach out to competitive GMs about their TJ stashes, as they’re always painful to hold while competing. (Jordan Rosenblum)

79. Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 134)

On the back of strong scouting reports, Cade Cavalli is now a consensus top 300 dynasty asset according to the market. Although he was dominant at High-A, his minor league numbers have been less standout overall, with his K%-BB% declining precipitously after each promotion. Accordingly, no projection system has him under a 4.65 ERA in 2022. There are plenty of recent examples of elite pitching prospects taking rapid, major steps forward in their performance, however (think Shane Baz and D.L. Hall in 2021 versus in 2019), and scouts are virtually universal in their praise of his repertoire. Think of him as a high variance option, with excellent upside. (Jordan Rosenblum)

80. Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 23)

Mike Soroka should be fully recovered from Achilles and shoulder soreness by June or July. He can be expected to pick up where he left off when he was last healthy: he’ll limit walks and keep the ball down (his launch angle allowed is elite), and most projection systems have him with an ERA in the low 4s. To untap the next level of upside, he’ll need to find a way to miss more bats (career 19.6 K%). (Jordan Rosenblum)

 

81. Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 115)

Montgomery had a promising start to his career, throwing 155 innings at a 3.81 ERA in 2017 before going down early in the 2018 season needing Tommy John Surgery. Essentially missing two full seasons, Montgomery only threw 44 innings in the pandemic year, suddenly it’s 2021 and you’re 28 years old in your first full season in four years. He and Luis Severino should have plenty to chat about.

Fortunately, Montgomery is back on his 2017 track and had an eerily similar 2021 season, at 157 innings at a 3.83 ERA. His wide array of pitches (Four-seam, Sinker, Cutter, Curve, Change) are all used at least 14% of the time, and when watching Montgomery pitch it is a clinic on keeping hitters off-balance. A large number of his strikeouts come on off-speed chases. The Changeup has a 39.2 Whiff% and a 22.8 Put Away% allowing a .187 BA. Only Patrick Sandoval, Devin Williams, and Ranger Suarez had a higher Whiff% in the league on the Change. The Curveball has a 42.9 Whiff% and a 26.1 Put Away% allowing a .191 BA. Only Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez had a higher Whiff% on the Curve, per Baseball Savant. Translation, his off-speed stuff is filthy. Unfortunately, an average Fastball and Sinker of 92.5 MPH doesn’t blow batters away and the Sinker allows a .359 BA, and we’re left with a career K/9 of 8.84. You need the Jordan Montgomery types in your lineup week after week to take chances elsewhere on upside. (Bob Osgood)

 

82. Sixto Sanchez, Miami Marlins (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 21)

This rank is basically the Shrug Emoji. “We ranked him 21^st last year, nothing good has happened since, ehh 82 seems fair.” Sanchez entered the league in 2020 throwing a 98+ MPH fastball allowing a 3.46 ERA in 39 innings while striking out only 7.6 batters per nine. He still has not exhausted that rookie eligibility status, under 50 career innings. A shoulder injury in the spring kept him out the entire season, it has been implied that the Marlins are unhappy with his approach to rehab, and a video released in January showed Sanchez throwing at a distance and speed that couldn’t break a pane of glass. That being said, the first step of rehab throwing after a shoulder injury is from 45 feet and certainly not at full speed so the video is likely overblown. No one really knows what to expect in 2022 from Sanchez but it’s important to remember that he’s a 23-year-old kid who has had success from the get-go at the Major League level so the price might just be low enough to acquire in a trade this offseason. (Bob Osgood)

 

83. Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 73)

After being selected with the 6^th pick in 2020, Emerson Hancock has thrown just 44 2/3 innings of game action since. After an Alt-Site only season in 2020, he did make it to double-A in 2021 but dealt with lingering shoulder issues the entire season. Between the two levels, he allowed just a 2.62 ERA, striking out 8.7 per 9, and walking 3.43 per 9. Hancock has advanced control, with a fastball that ranges from 93-98 with movement, an above-average slider, and a plus changeup, per Baseball America. It was reported by the team that there is no structural damage to Hancock’s shoulder, so the hope is that he’s ready to go for 2022 but likely with a limited workload and it’s hard to know if there is any relief pitcher risk here, thanks to an arm slot that raises concerns. It’s expected that the Mariners will let Hancock throw as a starter for as long as they can with the investment they made, but likely with a close eye. (Bob Osgood)

 

84. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 28)

It’s easy to look at Hyun-Jin Ryu’s 2021 and see a pitcher who is on the downslope of his career, entering his age-35 season coming off a 4.37 ERA season. First off, if you missed out on the games in Dunedin last spring, there are some slow-pitch softball leagues in your neighborhood that can likely re-enact these events for you. Buffalo wasn’t much better.

Away: 3.78 ERA, .244 BAA, 10 HR allowed

“Home”: 4.91 ERA, .271 BAA, 14 HR allowed

Ryu will be back pitching in a relatively park-neutral Rogers Center in 2022. You also shouldn’t forget about the three seasons before that, where Ryu threw 332 innings combined, with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, finished 2^nd in the NL Cy Young in 2019 for the Dodgers and 3^rd in the AL Cy Young in 2020 for the Blue Jays. Previously considered an injury risk, Ryu has now thrown 183, 67 in a short season, and 169 innings over the past three seasons, respectively. There were also noted issues of Ryu being unable to see his family during the pandemic, and not being able to focus mentally for much of the season.  Ryu is owed $20 million this year and next and will get plenty of slack alongside Gausman, Berrios, and Manoah to anchor this rotation. This isn’t to say you should buy a 35-year-old pitcher everywhere in dynasty, but there is at least some redraft value here. (Bob Osgood)

 

85. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 152)

The knock on Ryan is that he’s a one-pitch pitcher, whose one pitch is a fastball, and that fastball is 91 miles per hour. Well, at some point we may need to look at results and Ryan has never averaged less than 11.8 K/9 at any level, any year, and he arrived in the Majors with the Twins this past September and averaged 10.1 K/9 in five starts. Ryan attacks hitters with strikes and has a deceptive delivery. He mixes in a decent slider that he throws to righties, and a changeup that he throws to lefties, with a show-me curve, to go with the aforementioned fastball. Ryan’s ERA was 4.05 in 26 2/3 major league innings but his expected ERA was 2.99 and his WHIP was 0.79 (the exact same WHIP he had in 66 Triple-A innings.) Strangely, Ryan’s draft position in redraft is much higher than dynasty, which likely speaks to not believing in his upside as a front-end pitcher due to a lack of pitch mix. I’ll look at the low walks, high strikeouts, and low ERA and take Joe Ryan on any of my teams in any format. (Bob Osgood)

 

86. Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Guardians (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 169)

It’s a trap! Incredibly, Quantrill’s 2.89 ERA last year was only 13 innings away from qualifying for the AL ERA title, which was won by Robbie Ray at 2.84, followed by Lance McCullers at 3.16. Even 13 subpar innings would have finished in second place in the league. That probably doesn’t jive with the 252 ADP in NFBC drafts this offseason, but kudos to the sharp players out there. Quantrill had pitched well in relief in 2020, coming over to Cleveland from San Diego in The Mike Clevinger trade. After 18 relief appearances, Quantrill made 22 starts and threw a total of 149 2/3 innings. He pitches to contact and has done a great job since arriving in Cleveland of that being weak contact. Per Fangraphs, Quantrill allowed a Hard Hit % of 41.5 in San Diego in 2019 and 43.8% in San Diego in 2020. After the trade, he allowed 22.7 HH% in 2020 for Cleveland, and 27.8 HH% in 2021. His “slider” is now listed as a “cutter” and was thrown 26% of the time, allowing a .201 BA and fueling his great season. The staff in Cleveland clearly did a great job with his command and Quantrill pitched to contact almost flawlessly. Unfortunately, Ruben Niebla, formerly of the Guardians, is now the pitching coach in San Diego.

Quantrill’s expected ERA on Statcast was 4.06. His FIP was also 4.06, xFIP 4.43, and SIERA 4.52. The .267 BABIP was key to this good luck. He has a 19.6 K% (22^nd percentile), a 12.0 K-BB%, and a 9.3% Swinging Strike Rate. It’s not impossible that he can be a Kyle Hendricks who out-pitches his peripherals but there is near-certain regression coming in 2022. Quantrill isn’t a bad pitcher but he also isn’t someone that you should be relying on as part of your rotation core in dynasty. (Bob Osgood)

 

87. Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR)

Add Contreras to the list of prospects who we couldn’t get eyes on during the lost season of 2020 who went from deep-league prospect stash to knocking on the door of a major league rotation. Contreras even got a foot in that door for three innings at the close of the 2021 season. Part of the return in the Jameson Taillon deal with the Yankees, Contreras went from throwing in the low 90’s in 2019 to averaging 95 in spring training before the shutdown to topping out at 98 in 2021. At Double-A, Contreras had a 2.0/10.6 BB/K per 9, with a 2.65 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 12 starts. With a curveball, slider, and changeup that all have above-average potential, Contreras has a starters’ pitch mix which should get plenty of run in the Pirates rotation in 2022. After throwing 61 innings total last year, the cap likely won’t be much past 100 but there surely won’t be anyone blocking Contreras in the Pirates rotation this year. (Bob Osgood)

 

88. Steven Matz, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 189)

If we’re going to give the hitters a pass for an unorthodox 2020, we need to do the same for pitchers if it’s sandwiched between three decent seasons. Matz’s ERAs the last four years: 3.97, 4.21, 9.68, 3.82. Conveniently, the 3.82 came in a contract year and led to a four-year, $44-million contract in St. Louis. Matz had spent his career living around 50% ground balls and after an outlier 34% GB in 2020, he got that number back up to 46% in 2021, thanks to improvements in his Changeup which allowed a .209 BA against, easily the best of his career. Matz won 14 games last year, despite averaging just over five innings a start and his 1.33 WHIP is spot on with his career number. This is not a result of walks but instead a 9.2 H/9 rate. Matz may not hurt you in any category but it’s difficult to find one that he helps in unless he’s winning a lot of games. The upside is limited here. (Bob Osgood)

 

89. Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 31)

I so badly want “Top of the rotation Nate Pearson” to happen but each year that passes it seems more and more unlikely. Outside of the 101 innings that he threw in 2019, Pearson hasn’t thrown more than 46 in any other season since he was drafted in 2017, due to a combination of injury issues and inability to throw strikes. With a fastball that averaged 98 in 2021 and has touched 100+ at any and all levels, it’s fair to think that he may be best suited for a closer’s role. However, issuing 25 walks in 45 2/3 innings (24 appearances, 17 in relief) between AAA and MLB last year is not going to get it done there either. For now, that puts Pearson in no man’s land, especially with so many rotation pieces in place and even more waiting in the minors, which is tough for dynasty owners who were ready for him to take a rotation spot and run with it, starting in 2020. The upside is tantalizing, and this year may decide whether he’ll be pitching the beginning, middle, or end of games in the long term. (Bob Osgood)

 

90. Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 26)

Outside of Paddack’s excellent control, so many relevant statistics seem to be going in the wrong direction here. In his three seasons in the big leagues, respectively:

ERA: 3.33, 4.73, 5.07

WHIP: 0.98, 1.22, 1.27

K/9: 9.8, 8.8, 8.2

BA Against: .202, .260, .264

Exit Velo Percentile: 73^rd, 9^th, 13^th

While his changeup continues to be the great pitch that was expected when he was coming up, Paddack’s fastball gets too much of the plate and has gotten smoked the last two years, allowing a .314 average in 2021 on a pitch he throws 62% of the time. Paddack also ended the season with a “slight” UCL tear, receiving a stem cell injection in his right elbow. Our collective ranking might be a bit too high on this one; if Paddack is the buy-low candidate for you, it can probably happen in return for a lower-ranked player. (Bob Osgood)

 

91. Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 42)

Hendricks has had the feel of a wily veteran since his rookie year, despite only recently aging into that honorific. His success boggled our collective minds, and the revelation of seam shifted wake last offseason gave us a new approach to attempt to explain this north-Chicago anomaly. Baseball fans graduated from amateur statisticians into armchair physicists, yet we weren’t any closer to getting things right.

Coming into this year, Hendricks had a career ERA of just 3.12 and had an xFIP above 3.86 only once in a full season, outperforming those estimators with such regularity that we started to assume the formula was wrong. His final 2021 numbers were shockingly bad, though, posting a 4.77 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, both career worsts. There is warranted fear that the wheels have fallen off, but I’m not sure I see it. The arsenal was basically the same as it’s always been; maybe there wasn’t as much depth to his curve and he stayed out of the zone more, but no drastic changes. In fact, even with a couple of rough starts against Atlanta to start the year, he had a 3.68 ERA through his first start in August. It’s entirely possible that Hendricks simply phoned it in after essentially the entire major league roster around him was traded away. While I don’t expect a Cy Young caliber season, I think we will see a nice bounce back to the solid pitcher he’s always been. (Aaron Cumming)

92. Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 122 at RP)

It’s tough to trust a Rays starting pitcher for fantasy. The organization is unrivaled in maximizing their players’ on field performance, but that rarely translates to the stats we use for our game. Our crew saw enough in his profile as a relief pitcher in Milwaukee to rank him last year before he was traded to the Rays as part of the Willy Adames deal, but there’s a lot to process when transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation.

Rasmussen made 10 starts for Tampa Bay, and managed to go 5 innings (and only 5 innings) in just half of those games. He is unlikely to accrue many wins with that pattern. He also predictably and understandably lost velocity in the transition, going from 98 MPH to sitting 95-96 as a starter. In 34 innings as a reliever, he had a 29.4% strikeout rate compared to just an 18.2% mark while throwing 42 innings as a starter. With how the Rays handle their pitching staff, Rasmussen could be a great pitcher, but still not end up being much more valuable than long-relief/spot starter types like Cristian Javier or Chad Green. (Aaron Cumming)

93. Zach Plesac, Cleveland Guardians (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 45)

Perhaps the most polarizing player entering 2021, Plesac had numerous intelligent people believing he was about to break out as the next great Cleveland ace. Those people were pretty decisively wrong. Their prognostications weren’t without merit, though. In the shortened 2020 season, Plesac dominated with a nearly 25% K-BB%, which put him in the same range as Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer. It was a massive and unexpected leap forward in just 55 innings, so many remained skeptical as the helium grew.

Plesac disappointed across the board last season. His stuff took a hit, he battled injury, and his final stats suffered. His Statcast sliders were icy blue, and the trends all pointed down by season’s end. Nothing within the 2021 season really offers much hope of a rebound. If you want to just throw out a weird year of recovery and rules changes, then you can look back to his peak performance of 2020 and still hold out hope. He seems unlikely to regain that form, though. (Aaron Cumming)

94. Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 191)

Alex Wood is a very good pitcher. Alex Wood may even be a great pitcher. Since his debut in 2013, there have been 7 seasons where he has made at least 10 starts. In those seasons, his highest FIP was an impressive 3.69. His biggest issue has always been health, and that concern persists. He got a late start this past season with a back issue, and missed time at the beginning of September to COVID. Neither seemed to have any lasting effects as he was great all year, and spectacular to close out the regular season and in his lone playoff start.

In his first year with the Giants in 2021, he jumped his strikeout rate to 26%, getting better as the year went on. He re-signed with the club for 2 years this offseason which is huge on a couple of fronts: staying with the organization that helped him reach his full potential, as well as showing that they have full confidence in his health. If a notably tight pursed front office is willing to invest that kind of money, then I’m all in. (Aaron Cumming)

95. Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 100)

Liberatore was sent from the Rays to the Cardinals as part of a larger deal that included Randy Arozarena going the other way. Tampa Bay certainly must be happy with the results so far, but St. Louis may still end up the winner of that trade. The former first round pick was one of the best prep arms when he was drafted, with 4 plus pitches and clear command at a young age.

Spending all of 2021 at Triple-A and working up to a proper starter’s workload, he showed advanced skill with his repertoire and was bringing that command to his in-game execution. He spent 124 innings earning a 23.7% strikeout rate against just a 6.3% walk rate. With nothing left to show in the minors, and the major league rotation sporting a couple of question marks at the back, we should expect him to get at least a dozen starts. ZiPS is projecting 18 starts, and while that may be aggressive, it is well within a reasonable range of outcomes. (Aaron Cumming)

96. D.L. Hall, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 86)

Hall was considered to be the steal of the 2017 draft when he fell to the 21st pick. The big lefty had an electric pitch mix at the time, and it has continually improved each year. Unfortunately, he has only had limited opportunities to showcase his talent. He has been hurt every year, and barely has 200 innings across 4 seasons. This past year, it was a June elbow injury that limited him to just 31.2 innings. He worked his back to appear in Fall instructs, though, so at this time we can expect him to start 2022 healthy.

Hall has struggled with his control, posting consistently poor walk rates across all of his minor league stops. That is one of the most difficult skills to master for a young pitcher, and his struggles with staying on the mound have severely hampered his ability to improve. His stuff could propel him to be an exciting number 2 starter, but even if he can’t max out his reliability, he could be an extremely high-end reliever. (Aaron Cumming)

97. Huascar Ynoa, Atlanta Braves (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

It seems a lot of people are having the “who is this year’s Robbie Ray” discussion, and nobody is realizing that the answer to this question started his transformation in 2021. Ynoa has one of the most devastating sliders in baseball, and ramped up his fastball velocity nearly 2 ticks to 96.5 MPH. His main issue was control, posting double digit walk rates at nearly every stop he made through the minors and in his brief 24.2 inning 2019-2020 MLB sample. This year, he did exactly what propelled Ray to success: just throw it down the middle. Check out these strike zone plots from 2020 and 2021.

2020:

2021:

Let’s be clear: Ray has a MUCH better fastball, and will be more successful than Ynoa because of it. But Huascar needs to do 3 things to take a huge leap towards the top 30 on this list: maintain this approach, find a wrinkle with his fastball, and not punch walls. Two of those seem very attainable, and with just that, he should be a very valuable starter on a winning team. (Aaron Cumming)

98. Jon Gray, Texas Rangers (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 143)

“If [insert pitcher] could just get out of Coors Field, he would be so good.” – every fantasy baseball player plus Chris Young, the GM of the Rangers, apparently. And also the vaunted TDG rankers, since we bumped him up almost 50 spots from his spot on last year’s list. The problem is that many smart people expected Gray to re-sign with the Rockies because in addition to being a hometown favorite, he was one of the few pitchers to ever have a modicum of success there. Colorado let him walk, of course, because they’re Colorado, but it’s worth exploring his history there.

In 2021, Gray’s home ERA was 4.02 and his road ERA was 5.22. His ground-ball rate was 52.9% at home while dropping to 44.0% on the road. These represent the extremes of any season to date, but they are far from outliers. Gray has clearly developed a comfort with pitching in the thin air. Perhaps that should be comforting, hinting at his ability to adapt to his surroundings. He also landed in a fairly cushy setting, as the brand new Globe Life Park played like a pitchers park in its first year of action. If he makes the adjustments, Gray could be a decent anchor for the back end of a fantasy rotation, but expecting a breakout just because of a change of scenery is asking for too much. (Aaron Cumming)

99. Eury Perez, Miami Marlins (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR)

Baseball America just anointed Perez their top prospect in the Marlins system, ahead of such standouts as Max Meyer, Sixto Sánchez, Edward Cabrera, and Jake Eder. For fantasy purposes, it is usually the smart approach to avoid pitching prospects that are extremely young and are expected to spend a significant amount of time in the minors. However, this case is absolutely one of those times where it makes sense to throw caution to the wind and dream on potential.

Perez is somehow both hulking and athletic. He is young, but refined. He has masterful control of his fastball, an outstanding slider, and flashes great promise with his curveball. He three 78 dominant innings between Single-A and High-A, and will likely throw around 100-110 innings and get to Double-A this season. I’d expect his first taste of the majors to come early in 2023, and there’s no reason to expect anything short of near-ace level performances from the start. (Aaron Cumming)

100. Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 110)

Cabrera rounds out EIGHT Marlins pitchers to land in our top 100 starting pitcher ranks, and each of them are under 27 years old still. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, Max Meyer, Jesús Luzardo, Sixto Sánchez, and Eury Perez all precede Cabrera on this list. He was long thought to be the most likely hurler of these top-end prospects to head to the bullpen, but through his own performance and injuries to others, he has a good shot to stick in the rotation. López and Sánchez are nursing injuries, and Luzardo has offered mixed results during his major league stints.

Command was thought to be Cabrera’s achilles heel. That concern came to fruition in Triple-A and his big league debut last year, logging 14.7% and 15.8% walk rates at those stops respectively. His pitch mix, though, with Baseball Savant showing that his closest comp in terms of velocity and movement across his repertoire is Gerrit Cole. While I’m not expecting him to be the best pitcher in the league, I think he can corral his wildness enough to allow his talent to play and be a solid starting pitcher. (Aaron Cumming)

101. Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 84)

You are now entering the section of our rankings that you will see the phrases, “what if”, “can’t miss”, “will need”, “steady” and the dreaded “if he stays healthy” in every player summary moving forward. For Gonsolin aka Smoke aka the Dodger that wore those cleats with what I’m hoping wasn’t real kitten hair during the 2021 NLCS fall in the “if he stays healthy” category. The Braves must apparently hate kittens with how they smoked Smoke in his first appearance by giving up four earned runs with giving up five hard-hit balls to the seven batters he faced. He appeared two more times in the NLCS and did record his first career postseason win, but like his regular season (4-1 3.23 ERA 13 GS 55 IP 65 SO 34 BB 1.35 WHIP) it was pretty empty since the win was after he faced only batter.  Gonsolin right meow is penciled in as the #3 or #4 starter in the Dodgers rotation, but with the shoulder inflammation diagnosis that cost him two plus months on the IL in 2021, his velocity going down to 93.4 mph in 2022 from 95.1 mph last year and his 12.6% walk rate 2021 from 7.2% in 2020 also going in the wrong direction it lands him in a lower spot then last year. If he does make the rotation and is available after round 20 in your draft and you can afford a risk for a pitcher who will have the Dodgers offense to support him, I would take a flyer on him. In his last ten games of the regular season his four-seamer’s velocity had an uptick to 94.7 mph with an above average vertical movement and has both a splitter and slider that have consistently had a 20% swing miss rate during that time. (Ryan Fernandes)

102. Daniel Espino, Cleveland Guardians (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 133)

Now you want the sexier can’t miss prospect? Well, if you are in rebuild mode or want a pitching prospect that you want to stash you will want to take a look closer at Espino. In an organization that identifies and develop quality pitching Espino is their top pitching prospect and won their minor league pitcher of the year in 2021. Possessing triple digit heat, a wipeout slider, and an above average curveball that has been dubbed elite.  He also possesses an outstanding athleticism grade that helped him harness his control even with flawed mechanics before the 2021 season. Now with reward there usually comes risk with some talent evaluators having him more suited towards an elite type closer which most fantasy manager will still love to have, but the Guardians are set on making him a starter. I wouldn’t worry about his win and loss record or even his ERA last year, but focus on the improvements he made after a promotion to High-A last year in which he cut his walks from 4.85 to 2.94 per nine innings and his ability to increase his strikeouts per 9 innings to 16.2 from 13.5 with a 0.94 WHIP.  Espino is already a top 100 prospect and has been mentioned as a candidate for the 2022 minor league pitcher of the year. If he isn’t already taken in your league you will need to pounce on him when you are ready to draft a pitching prospect to stash on your roster because all signs point to him being one of the top pitching prospects by the end of 2022 and in line to joining the major league staff in 2023. (Ryan Fernandes)

103. MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 19)

A 6’4 frame with a Mark Langston type leg-kick and an even higher release point that made it almost impossible for a hitter to pick up and recognize with the elite stuff this kid has! A total can’t miss? A top 20 ranking the last two years on our list! 2021 was supposed to be the all fantasy managers got rewarded for having MacKenzie Gore on their roster. The 2019 MLB Pipeline pitcher of the year with every publication that made a prospect rankings had him as their top pitching prospect and an overall top five prospect. Even after a lost 2020 minor league season it was still a foregone conclusion that he would be a part of the Padres starting rotation at some point. Now we are at number 103 in our rankings and he is now being called a reclamation project or a possible trade chip. Wow! That didn’t take long? Yes, he did take a huge step back with a sudden issue with his mechanics and a lingering blister issue that led him to miss time on the injured list. All of that led to a demotion and pretty much exile from all fantasy rankings. I have already seen in some upcoming 2022 rankings he doesn’t even make the top 100. In the world of instant gratification and no patience I wouldn’t give up on Gore that easily.  Yes, it looks like we did by dropping him 84 spots from last year. It is more of a warning that he isn’t the can’t miss pitching prospect we all thought and it might be another year or two till we see him regain his form. But, reports out of the Padres’ complex in Arizona in December is with revamped mechanics he has regained his control as well as gained his velocity back and looks like the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball again. He isn’t facing major league talent, but if he did gain his control that is a major hurdle to overcome. Do I see him being in the starting rotation right out of spring training this year? Probably not unless he dominates everyone at spring training, but I do see him becoming who he was hyped up to be just two years ago. If anything, there is nothing wrong with buying low and investing in your future. (Ryan Fernandes)

104. Adam Wainwright, St Louis Cardinals (Age: 40, Previous Rank: 235)

Ok here is the outlier when it comes to what I said in this part of the rankings because I’m over 40 years old and I just can’t explain what Wainwright did last year.  I have a hard time getting out of bed and this guy pitched over 200 innings with a 17-7 record and an earned run average of 3.05 with a 1.06 WHIP last year.  I am very sure the only reason he is this low in the rankings is because my colleagues know that I hurt myself typing this out and thinks Wainwright will eventually break down too. Last year all four of his pitches went up in velocity compared to his last couple of years. I feel he is one of those guys that has old man strength and never bet against that!  He and Yadier Molina are motivated to end their careers on a high note with both coming back for 2022 so I am going to go out on a limb and say some guys just can delay father time from beating them so expect similar numbers next year. But if he has a slow start, I’d cut bait because father time will always be undefeated and falling off a cliff comes quick! Trust me! (Ryan Fernandes)

105. Asa Lacy, Kansas City Royals (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 51)

Lacy has every physical attribute you would put for yourself when creating yourself as a star pitcher in a video game. Every report about him coming out of the draft was the same with having elite and top of the rotation stuff.  One word though that did leap off of a couple reports for me and that was “risky at times” referring to his command.  Yes of course there is risk that comes with every player that is drafted especially pitchers I know, but the more I dove into his lack of command in 2021 the more it worried me.  He has elite stuff with an above average fastball, slider, and changeup mix that leads to a lot of swings and misses with his 13.67 strikeout per 9 innings last year.  But unfortunately, that risk showed up as well with 7.10 walks per 9 innings along with a 5.19 ERA. Don’t get me wrong he can turn it around like any young pitching prospect on this list, but along with a minor shoulder injury that already shut him down I don’t see him putting it together for a little while and there are better options down this list. (Ryan Fernandes)

106. Quinn Priester, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 167)

For me when it comes to reading reports and evaluations about prospect it is pretty rare but if you see a scouting report with the words “peers watch and marvel” then there is something special about that player. A number of reports about Priester after his performance last year had those exact words from not only his peers but also scouts and his manager. He is like a number of the young elite pitching prospects at this part of the list that has all the physical attributes wanted along with a fastball that hits 98 mph, a sinking two-seamer, two breaking balls, a plus curveball with 2900 rpm spin rate, AND an above-average slider. He pitched in high A ball last year in what was called a very hitter-friendly environment and ended up 2.59 ERA.  You wouldn’t think that was anything special until you see that the average ERA for starting pitchers in this division was 4.77 ERA. He had over two runs better than the average. If you compare that to anyone in MLB Jacob DeGrom was the only starting pitcher with a minimum of 15 games started to do that with a 2.27 ERA compare to the MLB average of 4.27. I think if you ever see any pitching comparison to DeGrom you might want to have him on your team. (Ryan Fernandes)

107. Eric Lauer, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 302)

Slow and steady wins the race…. A trade along the development of a slider seems to have turned Lauer’s career around and a slot in the 2022 Brewers rotation that led to a huge jump in the rankings. With increases to his velocity, along with the new movement on his cutter and his four-seamer it all led to a reduction in contact against. He has shown vast improvements across almost every pitching metric since joining the Milwaukee organization and this really looked like a change of scenery for a player waw what was needed. I believe he will still contribute with a steady amount of points each week and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get a piece of that Brewer staff if you can’t get any of their big three. There is something brewing in Cheese land with their ability to reinvent and develop pitchers. (Ryan Fernandes)

108. Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners (Age:29, Previous Rank: 82)

With what I thought about Lauer can go for Gonzales in being your steady guy in the rotation for points with not as much upside potential.  He will rack up points with quality type starts and next year with an improving Mariners team that can lead to more wins and points. His numbers won’t jump out off the page with a 10-6 record 3.95 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 143.1 innings, but the consistency of him pitching well every week racking up points will help. When it comes to drafting pitching, I tend to take the promising prospect or young arm that has all the potential instead of the steady veteran who gives consistent points throughout the year and it has backfired numerous times. Every year I have at least one moment where I scream at my phone when checking out the scores and yell, “Why do I do this!”  So, if you don’t want to end up yelling at your phone because you have a lot of boom or bust pitching on your team maybe adding a guy like Gonzales is the wise move in the late rounds or in free agency. (Ryan Fernandes)

109. Nestor Cortes Jr., New York Yankees (Age: 27, Previous Rank: N/A)

In my Connor McGregor voice “who the f* is this guy?” Cortes Jr. almost pitched himself out of the league with the Mariners in 2020.  The Yankees brought him back after releasing him in 2019 and it might have been their best move of their offseason in 2021. With a 2.9 WAR Cortes Jr. was sixth on the team in that category. A throwback who reminds me of Sid Fernandez from the Amazing Mets of the 80s with his delivery, stature, and yes that glorious mustache. He had a knack of using his average pitching repertoire to keep hitters guessing. I don’t think he will be in the 2022 rotation, but a similar role being the long reliever and spot starter can be just as valuable if your league gives points for holds. His sub 3.00 ERA with 103 strikeouts in 93 innings and 1.08 WHIP in 2021 is promising. The real question is did we see a pitcher who just needed a little more time to put everything together and should expect the same in 2022? I’ll never say never but teams will have more tape on him and that will make it difficult for him to surprise hitters like last year. (Ryan Fernandes)

110. Matt Brash, Seattle Mariners (Age: 23, Previous Rank: N/A)

I have to credit Rob Friedman who put together a 90-second highlight video of Brash’s pitches that he titled, “What in the name of Kerry Wood is this Filth?”  for making me fall in love with this guy! I literally tried to swipe right after seeing that video! Brash is now ranked inside the top 100 prospects with a 2.31 ERA in High A and AA ball along with an eye popping 142 strikeouts in 92 innings. His arsenal consists of a fastball that sits between 94 to 96 mph that tops off at 101 mph, a changeup that he had good command of but his bread and butter are the hook to his curve, and the wipeout movement of his slider that will make you think you are watching a replay of the 1998 Kerry Wood 20 strikeout performance. He doesn’t throw as hard consistently but evaluators have compared him to Zach Wheeler. Many in the Mariners organization have said he could be a reliever in the majors tomorrow, but hopefully they will avoid that temptation to let him develop his repertoire to be a starter.  Don’t be surprised if the Mariners are in the playoff race that he will be a late season call-up this year. (Ryan Fernandes)

111. Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 156)

Over the last three seasons that Alzolay has pitched for the Cubs he has reinvented himself each year. In 2019 he was primarily a 4-seam fastball pitcher with a good changeup and an average slider. In 2020 he developed a curveball in the off-season and used that as his primary pitch along with a sinker. And last season he added yet another pitch in a cutter and used his slider being his primary pitch along with a 2-seamer while pretty much ditching the 4-seam fastball that he used as his primary pitch when he debuted. Also, in the process he cut his walks per 9 innings from 6.57 walks in 2019 to 1.97 walks in 2021 to go along with 128 strikeouts in 125.2 innings. On the other side though Alzolay did give up a lot harder contact and the 4.58 ERA is a concern. He has electric stuff that can making him an ace along with a willingness and the ability to reinvent himself to be a better pitcher are good signs. (Ryan Fernandes)

112. Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals (Age:25, Previous Rank: 90)

If Singer and the Royals best pitching prospects showed up at a WWE show they could be a top faction with the size of these guys. I think the Royals have a prerequisite that every starter must be at least 6’2 and 200 lbs. in their organization. Unfortunately for Singer just standing 6’5 on mound only does so much. He still hasn’t developed a third pitch that has been a knock on him since he became a major league pitcher and this will just continue to limit him and make him too predictable. Last season his pitch breakdown was 901 sinkers and 550 sliders with only 54 change-ups and 39 4-seamers. It isn’t a recipe for success unless that sinker and slider were wipeout pitches. Hopefully Singer will finally develop a third pitch that he is confident in throwing to raise his ceiling otherwise expect the same or even worse stats and a lower ranking next year. (Ryan Fernandes)

113. Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers (Age:19, Previous Rank: N/A)

The third pick of the 2021 draft had video game stats last year in high school by going 9-0 with 0.13 ERA and 122 strikeout in 51 innings with only 5 walks. What I’m wondering is who were the kids who actually got on base against this kid? Maybe you should look into that and maybe you might find the next Mike Trout! Seriously though his wipeout slider has an insane spin rate above 3,000 rpm which is elite and on top of that he has control of it. A four-seamer that can top out at 96 mph along with a good change-up in the 80s and a developing curve in the upper 70s.  Again, he pitched in high school last year and is only 19 years old.  Probably won’t see him for quite some time, but as you have read there are a number of reasons, he is already at number 113 in our rankings. (Ryan Fernandes)

114. Cole Winn, Texas Rangers (Age:22, Previous Rank: 213)

2021 Cole showed why the Rangers drafted him 15^th overall in 2018 with a breakout season in which he pitched a 2.31 ERA in 72 innings with a 0.82 WHIP in AA which got him an invite to the 2021 Futures Game along with winning the 2021 Rangers minor league player of the year. All signs point to Winn showing off his four-pitch repertoire that has a fastball that can touch 97 mph, a 12-6 curve with downward action that grades as his best pitch along with a slider that has wipeout potential, and a good change-up. Winn along with Al Leiter will be a 1-2 punch that will cause problems for hitters in the AL West for many years. (Ryan Fernandes)

115. Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 22. Prevoous Rank: 190)

Miller impressed with a 2.40 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate in the 17 games, he pitched at Double-A Tulsa. He came out of Louisville with an elite four-seam fastball that reaches 100 mph, a plus curve, and a potential plus slider. The first thing the Dodgers did was clean up his delivery and mechanics to help him throw with less effort and in 2021 he improved a change he developed in 2020 and added a spike curve that now has bumped him to a potential top of a rotation type pitcher. Miller has also been working on having two speed variations for all of his pitches which he will probably experiment with this year in the minors. If he is able to do that with and continue to improve his control he will move up in the Dodgers organization quicker that the estimated eta of late 2023 or spring 2024. (Ryan Fernandes)

116. Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees (Age:30, Previous Rank: 77)

Jamo was a popular pick for the comeback player award before 2021 coming off of Tommy John surgery.  Unfortunately, it was an up and down season which had an abbreviated end in October with a torn ligament in his ankle. Tailon is expected to be in the Yankees rotation by May even though his rehab even though he said a month ago, “it has been a lot tougher with the lockout.” If you followed Tailon’s career one thing you know is that if anyone can comeback from anything it is this guy. No one can ever discount this man’s heart and inner strength for what he has overcome throughout his career with coming back from a sports hernia and testicular cancer. Before the ankle injury Tailon changed his approach that he had in beginning of the season by ditching his sinker and throwing his four-seam fastball a career high 48.3% of his pitches that led to better swing and miss results. If Tailon comes back in May as reported he will be a pitcher to watch for a possible pickup in free agency if you need pitching. I expect a pretty similar type season statistically as he did in 2021 with an 8-6 record with a 4.30 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 144.1 innings. (Ryan Fernandes)

117. Taijuan Walker, New York Mets (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 141)

If you had Walker on your team last year, you already skipped this because of his 2021 second half! In the beginning of 2021 fantasy managers that had him probably didn’t stop bragging that they had the biggest steal of the draft with the first half he put together with a 2.66 ERA and being named an All-Star, but then the wheels came off and you probably got burned over and over again keeping him in your starting rotation each week because he had to turn it around? He was doing so well! The Mets are going to the playoffs! Well, Walker ended up going winless in the second half, he gave up a National League leading 20 homeruns with 49 earned runs over 64 1/3 innings. The Mets as well went down with him! Who is the real Taijuan Walker? Don’t ask me! I was that sucker who kept him in my rotation way too long because I knew he’d turn it around! If anything, Walker admitted that he didn’t properly train and take care of himself and that is what caused him to simply run out of gas in the second half. He vows to do that this off-season so maybe you can count on similar success that he had in the first half. I’m not! (Ryan Fernandes)

118. Elieser Hernandez, Miami Marlins (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 94)

If you see numerous reports that headline, “is the right time to give up on a player” it usually isn’t a good sign that that player had the type of season the organization and fanbase had hoped.  Another comeback award candidate for 2021 after a lateral injury in 2020 caused him to lost most of the abbreviated 2020 season never had a chance to really comeback. A year in which Hernandez was put on the 60-day injured list twice with issues to his bicep and later his quad when running the bases. When on the mound it didn’t go well with the 13 home runs given up in 51.2 innings which equated to giving up a home run to every 17 batters he faced. His velocity was there, but his spin rate was well below his career average. All signs point to Hernandez being traded if the Marlins can get a halfway decent offer for him on the trade market, but with his affordable salary and minor league options he does provide flexibility the Marlins can use to wait out for the right deal if nothing happens this off-season. Unfortunately, it sounds like he wore out his welcome in Miami and his outlook is being a spot starter or long reliever if he does pitch for the Marlins in 2022. (Ryan Fernandes)

119. Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers (Age:24, Previous Rank: 41)

Quite the drop for Manning after a rough 2021 campaign in which he made 18 starts in the majors with a 4-7 record and a 5.80 ERA after a surprising promotion in early 2021. Manning reached elite prospect level even though he struggled in the minors the last couple years. His four seamer’s velocity dropped from 97 mph to 94 mph along with a lack of movement in his fastball coupled with a sinker that didn’t sink was only part of his problem. Manning never was a pitcher with a high spin rate, but that didn’t stop him from being an elite prospect. It seems the better the hitters got when he progressed in the minors and now the majors that lack of spin rate in his pitches caught up to him. Those two pitches alone are what he threw 60.8% of the time last year. He did show improvement halfway through the season after some cleaned up mechanics that bumped his four-seamer up to 98 mph. With now having five pitches to work with a newly developed slider he started to use in the middle of 2021. This should help him get better results next year, but if he doesn’t up his spin rate it won’t matter and he will just have the same results if not worse next season. (Ryan Fernandes)

120. Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 33)

After having a Cy Young type year in the shortened 2020 season with a 2.09 ERA and 0.855 WHIP. In 2021 it was more of a “sigh” type of season for Lamet. His season started with a bicep/elbow injury that had him on the injured list and then in his first start after only two innings with a forearm injury. Sigh. He did return from that injury and start nine games during the season but after another injury this time with his shoulder he had to be put back on the injured list again. Sigh. In September Lamet again came back, but this time to the bullpen. Sigh. He had a very minimal decrease in his velocity and his pitch ratio was pretty similar to what he threw in 2020 with still being able to throw his slider at an elite level but the movement wasn’t at the same rate. Sigh. With the results being a 4.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.49, there will be no room for him in the rotation and after an injury riddled season it looks like Lamet will be designated for assignment by the Padres because of his five plus million salary in favor of less expensive options in the organization. Sigh. Lamet could possibly find another team to be a starter if he consistently shows the command and movement that he had. But, with the injuries racking up it might be better if he reinvented himself as a reliever that he can excel in with the stuff he has. Sigh? (Ryan Fernandes)

121. Mick Abel, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 130)

The first high school pitcher taken in the 2020 draft, Mick Abel has lived up to expectations in his limited exposure to pro ball and has, in some circles, erased the gap between him and college pitchers from the same class. He hit 98 miles per hour at the Phillies’s instructional complex and put up a ridiculous 66 strikeouts in 44.2 innings last year at Class-A Clearwater, but he’s not just an arm-strength guy: He’s got a slider, curveball and changeup in his arsenal, and he throws strikes with ease. He’s answered pretty much every question you’d ask of a high school draftee, except “Can he stay healthy?” but other than that, the sky’s the limit. (Bryan Joiner)

122. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 32)

Stephen Strasburg probably won’t make the Hall of Fame, but most of that can be chalked up to injuries that have limited him to just over 27 innings pitched over the last two years and only two 200+ inning seasons in his 12-year career. That’s a shame, but we don’t have to let it damper our appreciation of the man, who’s never put up an ERA over 4 in his career and has near-exclusively registered FIPs and xFIPs in the 2s. Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is a tough injury for a pitcher to overcome, but if anyone can do it, you’d think Stras would be the guy. If he’s not, it’ll be another unfortunate bounce for the most hyped pitching prospect of his generation, but if he his, he’s a steal at this price. (Bryan Joiner)

123. Daniel Lynch, Kansas City Royals (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 108)

There’s a lot of things to like about Daniel Lynch, but his rookie season isn’t one of them. He had an ugly 5.69 ERA over 15 starts and the underlying stats weren’t better, as his xFIP matched that almost exactly. The biggest question mark of concern was the 4.10 walks per 9, which he needs to get under control to have any shot of sticking near the top of a rotation. All that said, 24-year-old lefties with starter potential don’t grow on trees. The upside may not be astronomical, but a couple improvements could see Lynch sustain himself as a solid No. 3. (Bryan Joiner)

124. Luis Gil, New York Yankees (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

Speaking of control problems: Luis Gil. The righty started six games for the Yankees last year and averaged 5.83 walks per 9 over 29.1 innings. That’s very bad, but this cloud has a platinum lining: He averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per 9 over the same stint, which is outrageously good. His .239 BABIP suggests he got lucky to earn the 3.07 ERA he put up, and I would not expect him to repeat such a cartoonish assortment of stats going forward. That said, he has the goods to reach a preposterous ceiling, with the flaws to fall, if not into a chasm, a bullpen role at which he would likely excel. (Bryan Joiner)

125. Corey Kluber, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 68)

Klubes only threw 80 innings for the Yankees in 2021… but it was 80 times as many innings as he threw for the Rangers in 2020, which is quite an improvement. For a man known for his poker face, Kluber was as steady as he always is, save for a continued uptick in walks from his utterly dominant years, which continue to hover around 3.73/9, double the number of his prime. That said, he allows less around one homer over the same stretch, which is a rarity worth investing in if the price is right, and still notched one K an inning. The underlying stats have Kluber as merely a very good pitcher going forward, not a great one, but the floor here is as high as his body will allow. (Bryan Joiner)

126. Jackson Kowar Kansas City Royals (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 140)

Calling Jackson Kowar’s 2021 “inauspicious” is being overly kind; he was bad and there aren’t really two ways around it. With the exception of his strikeout numbers, which were pretty good, everything else was bad to terrible. The best thing you can say is that his ERA, which was 11.27, was basically double that of his xFIP, so he got unlucky in addition to being bad. That said, it was only 30.1 innings, and Kowar still has the stuff that made him the 33rd pick overall in 2018. There could be value here; it certainly can’t get worse. (Bryan Joiner)

127. Tylor Megill, New York Mets (Age: 25, Previous Rank: NR)

Tylor Megill contains multitudes. He’s great! He’s bad! He’s somewhere in between! But aren’t we all? On the whole, Megill was impressive in 2021, mostly in July, with his production falling quite a bit after that. So did the league figure him out? Maybe. The major problem Megill faced in the second half vis-a-vis the first was a tendency to give up the longball. Unfortunately for him, he pitched about five times as many innings after the break than he did before, with opponents absolutely teeing off (.493 SLG) in August and September. There’s potential here, but the attached red flag is oversized and impossible to miss. (Bryan Joiner)

128. Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 118)

Dane Dunning, who was your favorite substitute teacher in high school, is a starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers. This doesn’t work out well for most people. Dunning is goofy and fun and a fourth-starter-for-life in the making, but Texas is unkind to pitchers no matter what stadium they call home, or who else is on the team. The floor here is relatively high and the ceiling relatively low, but stability has its value. Currently that value is $10 for a personalized Dunning video on Cameo (all proceeds to charity!). Sounds about right. (Bryan Joiner)

129. Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 121)

Yusei

The price of your arm is a price I’m not willing to pay
You try

To erase the memories of an awful 2020 gone by

Why so sad?

Remember the arrangement can change with a good ERA

Now you’re making me mad

Remember despite our estrangement, I’m a fan (Bryan Joiner)

130. Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins (Age: 26, Previous Rank: NR)

I’m into Bailey Ober. Late bloomers are a good category of player to target in dynasty, and a 25-year-old rookie for Minnesota who makes 20 starts with a 4.19 ERA fits the bill. His main bugaboo is the longball, but that in and of itself isn’t a death sentence. The strikeout numbers are good and the walk numbers are very good. He has Professional Pitcher written all over him and will probably go later relative to his peers than he should, which gives you a good chance to grab him in Ober-time. (Bryan Joiner)