TDG 2021: Risers and Fallers: First Basemen
There a few new pieces we are introducing for 2021 to accompany our rankings in order to give you more insight and info on the players we ranked. Every Monday to accompany our first rankings list we will be highlighting some players we see as risers and fallers at the position.
So I hope you enjoy the package that the TDG team has put together here. And if you do, I hope that you will make a donation to show appreciation for the content you’ve seen here at the Dynasty Guru and share our content far and wide. You can do that through the field below. All donations are truly appreciated.
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Riser – Nate Lowe, Texas Rangers (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 15)
Lowe shoots up our ranking list because we believe Nate will rake in Texas. Lowe was recently acquired by Texas from Tampa Bay for prospects. Just to add some humor here for all the fantasy baseball connoisseurs, the greatest benefit in Lowe’s move to Texas is that Chris Woodward isn’t the mad scientist that Kevin Cash is with his lineup. In my opinion, Lowe will slide into the lineup and he will not look back.
I am predicting Lowe will hit 15-25 bombs a year in his new home. Lowe is ranked 13 on TDG’s first baseman rankings that will be coming out. He slides right behind Max Muncy and Triston Casas. Jose Abreu and Miguel Sano follow Lowe on this list. So obviously we believe the Rangers struck gold in this deal. I don’t see any reason why Lowe doesn’t eclipse 400 at-bats this year. To let you know how sold I am on Lowe, here are some guys higher on ADP lists that I would rather have Lowe over: Rowdy Tellez, Evan White, Carlos Santana, and Joey Votto. If you are in a deep league with over 400 players rostered then take a chance on this guy. You will not regret it – especially if you can keep him next year. (Brett Cook)
Faller – Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 15 OF)
The last ranking for TDG had Hoskins ranked 40 overall, just above Rizzo, Rendon and Cole. Since we are talking dynasty, this ranking isn’t too rich for my blood. Hoskins has never been a high average guy but he still gets on base at a high clip due to a great walk rate. The guy has a career walk percentage just under 16%! Hoskins was on pace to have his best career year this year before his elbow injury. Playing in 41 of 60 games before that injury, if 2020 were a regular year and he didn’t suffer that injury, he was on pace to hit 40 bombs. Additionally, he was on pace to score well over 100 runs. Rhys fell to 10 on TDG’s rankings, just behind Paul Goldschmidt. Hoskins may not be ready to start the 2021 season, but I am sold on Hoskins long term. For 2021 and beyond, even with the injury, this is a guy you don’t want to forget about. (Brett Cook)
Riser – Seth Beer, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 18)
Seth Beer remains a dormant monster in the minors. Scouting reports are mixed on Beer, with many citing his poor defense and speed. The profile is that of a first baseman, though he was played in the outfield quite a bit last year. Regardless of where he plays, he will need to mash to play in the Majors at all. The good news is that’s exactly what he’s done thus far. In 2019 Beer slashed .289/.388/.516 across two levels. That’s a good line, and if you’re still not convinced, he’s also carried an OPS over a thousand the past two years. He’s also played against older competition his entire career in the minors.
However, he is now 24-years-old and missed a year of development in 2020. Beer was added to the 60-man roster and did work at the alternate site, but also caught Covid-19 and did not see any time in the Majors. That will change this year. At some point in 2021, Beer will make his debut with the Diamondbacks, and I think he’ll hit the ground running. I mean, not running because he’s incredibly slow, but he’ll hit baseballs. Beer has demonstrated a combination of plate skills and power that is quite promising, yet doesn’t seem to have other first base prospects’ hype. Not for long. Next year Beer makes our top 15 first basemen. (Patrick Magnus)
Faller – Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox (Age: 25, Previous Rank 32 3b)
What an arrival for Bobby Dalbec in 2020. As a Red Sox fan, I felt like he was just continually homering. Yet it’s quite clear that Dalbec is not a .260 hitter, though I am remarkably impressed he managed to do so with a strikeout rate just over 40%. If Dalbec is an everyday player, he’ll need to walk more and strike out less. I’m here to tell you; I don’t think he’s going to do that. At the moment, I see a player who can provide a ton of power but will be a significant drain on both batting average and OBP.
At the moment, the Red Sox’ starting first base job likely belongs to Bobby Dalbec. However, with Tristian Casas approaching quickly and DH being plugged by Martinez, I don’t see Dalbec having much of a future other than a bench bat. The lineup is simply going to be too strong to play Dalbec every day once Casas is on the squad. Thus, he likely ends up pinching late in games to provide some pop when needed, but that’s not a viable option for our lineups in dynasty. Even if he did play every day, he’d likely be such a ratio drain you would seek other options for your lineup regardless. Sorry, Bobby. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see you inside the top 30 next year. (Patrick Magnus)