2020 Dynasty Baseball RankingsDynasty Baseball

The Dynasty Guru’s 2020 Top 200 Dynasty League Starting Pitchers, #151-200

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Without further ado, it’s time to continue our 2020 consensus rankings by looking at the 151-200 best starting pitchers in dynasty leagues.

151) Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins, (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR)

This time last year, the good bet was that Edward Cabrera was destined to be a reliever. What a difference a year makes. Now, he’s a top 100 prospect with legitimate upside. This Marlins regime has been very good at developing pitchers and Cabrera is just another example of that. He has a fastball, slider, and changeup all of which are at least above average. His command (especially after improving his motion last year) is not all that bad. In A+ he had a 2.79 BB/9 and in AA he has a 3.03 BB/9. Best of all, he should start next season in AAA and, given the state of the Marlins, he should have a chance at a rotation spot at some point next season. I’m bullish on Cabrera, but a moderate projection is that he becomes a high strikeout #3. (Dillon Vita)

152) Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers, (Age: 27, Previous Rank: NR)

There was a time last year when Turnbull was the new hot thing. But, that ended with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. I’m still very interested in Turnbull and think he could be the one who gets to stay in the rotation once the arms like Mize, Manning, and Skubal are up. He’s still just 27 and has really had one season to prove himself in the MLB. His breaking and offspeed pitches include a slider, curve, and changeup and all of them are great The changeup however, he doesn’t use much so that could be due to small sample size. He really needs to improve his fastballs or become more reliant on his offspeed pitches. Both his four-seam and sinker are not adequate, but they add up to almost 65% of his pitches thrown. I think the fastball may even play up if he begins to throw his offspeed more. I’m definitely buying in because changing pitch usage is a change that Turnbull has the power to do. (Dillon Vita)

153) Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants, (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 137)

Cueto is 33 years old and hasn’t pitched in a minute. But, I’m convinced he’s going to be great next year. In a limited sample size, all of his pitches were solid in xWOBA, except his slider. But his slider had the same velocity and better spin rate in 2016 and what it usually is so there’s hope for me that it’s better this year. Plus Oracle Park is always nice. But, the risk of his age and recent injuries does push him down the list a bit. To feel really good about Cueto I’d like to see his velocity tick up to an average around 93 again like it was in 2016. But, that’s not something I’m going to bet on. (Dillon Vita)

154) Anibal Sanchez, Washington Nationals, (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 169)

Say what you will about Anibal Sanchez, but he had a nice 2019. And he capped it off with a nice World Series ring. I’ll take a 3.85 ERA 1.27 WHIP out of Anibal Sanchez any day of the week. He mainly throws a four-seamer, splitter, and cutter while mixing in some other pitches. The fastball isn’t very good, but the other two are good. To me, it looks like the 3.85 ERA could be real, though it’s accompanied by an unsightly 5.07 SIERA and an underwhelming 4.44 FIP. The real issue is that despite having some nice pitches, his upside is capped by the fact that he’s 35 years old and doesn’t strike many people out. Before the Braves got their hands on him, his career was headed in the wrong direction, but they had him change his pitch mix which led to his late-career resurgence. So, there could be something to him. If you need a depth arm for the short term, you could do worse than Sanchez. He could offer solid innings with a sub 4 ERA with a WHIP around 1.25. (Dillon Vita)

155) Justus Sheffield, Seattle Mariners, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 69)

I remember my few Yankee fan friends being upset that they gave Sheffield up for Paxton. He was definitely overhyped back then. Last year wasn’t great for him, but he started looking like his old self when he was sent down to Double-A during the season. Hopefully, it was just the transition of a new organization that messed him up. His ceiling is probably a mid-rotation starter, but he’s got some strikeout upside. He’s worth a shot after that Double-A stint because if he returns to his previous form he could be good value here. He had pitched well with an above-average fastball and changeup and a plus slider up until he hit the MLB in 2018 for 2.2 innings. (Dillon Vita)

156) Cole Winn, Texas Rangers, (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 194)

Cole Winn is like that girl in middle school who you had a crush on, even though she made fun of you every time you tried to talk to her. He was regarded as one of the top prep arms, and probably the most developed, coming into the 2018 draft. Last year was his pro-debut because the Rangers like to ease their prospects into the minors. He didn’t do so hot. 4.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in A ball. He had trouble with control as he had a 5.11 bb/9. His SwStr was only 10.6% and he only had an 8.52 k/9. But I don’t care, I still love him. Prep arms have been known to struggle with their first taste in the majors and I still believe he has front of the rotation upside. He has flashed a plus fastball and curveball. And he also has a slider and changeup. If his control can develop, as I think it can. And if that slider and changeup can take a step forward my dream can become a reality. But, keep in mind this is a lot of if’s. (Dillon Vita)

157) Hans Crouse, Texas Rangers, (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 200)

Crouse and Winn are teammates and there’s a lot of debate about who is the better prospect. If you read my blurb on Winn, you know which side I take. But, there’s definitely an argument to be made that Crouse is the right choice. His curveball is probably the best pitch either of them has. It can realistically be double plus. And his fastball can be plus, too. His 2018 looks really nice, until you look into the A stats besides the 2.70 ERA. His WHIP was an ugly 1.56 and his FIP was a 4.06. In 2019, he showed the cause for concern from that short time in A were valid. But, he didn’t walk many batters (1.95 BB/9) and had around the same SwStr rate he had in 2018 (12.0). That alone might put him ahead of Winn for some. Crouse has a good deal of upside still and has some peripherals that instill confidence, but right now, I’m only buying low. (Dillon Vita)

158) Tyler Beede, San Francisco Giants, (Age: 26, Previous Rank: NR)

I’m all aboard the Tyler Beede bandwagon. I know those MLB numbers are ugly (5.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 3.54 BB/9), but hear me out. His pitches are better than those results. Last year his pitches earned the following results by pVal: FB (56.2%)= -1.2,  SL (11.4%)= -1.5, CB (13.7%)= 0.4, and CH (18.7%)= -6.6. Tyler Beede had three pitches with a whiff rate above 35; his changeup (37.1%), curve (50.5%), and slider (38%). His fastball was at 16.1%, which isn’t terrible for a fastball. In terms of xWOBA, his changeup and curve were both quite good. His slider was pretty bad and his fastball was pretty bad. If he can lean more heavily on his secondaries I see a lot of room for growth and a spike in strikeouts. Ideally, I would like to see his BB/9 drop below 3, but for his price, I’ll deal with a 3.54 BB/9 if he improves that 8.69 K/9 and that 11.2 SwStr. And I think he will do this given that I think his pitches underperformed last year. Get ready for a sub 4 ERA and sub 1.30 WHIP with healthy Ks to come to a roster near you in 2020. (Dillon Vita)

159) Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners, (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 73)

I thought Kikuchi was going to be underwhelming in 2019, but I had not thought he’d be nearly as bad as he was. Part of the hype was because he was the best Japanese export in the year after Ohtani. There was no way he was going to live up to what some people thought was a front of the rotation ceiling. But, he failed to even live up to the more moderate middle of the rotation projections. He’s still the same pitcher he was last year so he’s worth a shot as long as you don’t get your hopes too high. I honestly think he can only do better than last year, but I’m not banking on him to break the 4.00 ERA threshold. (Dillon Vita)

160) Eric Pardinho, Toronto Blue Jays, (Age: 19, Previous Rank: NR)

The boat may have left the port on Pardinho. His stock was already fading and now that he just had Tommy John I’m pretty uninterested. His likely ceiling was a middle of the rotation starter, which is not the type of TJ pitcher I like to take a shot on. To be fair, though, he has posted some nice surface-level numbers through his 2 years. I don’t like the direction his k% and bb% headed in 2019 and he doesn’t have a plus pitch. Had he been healthy, I would be interested enough to take a shot on him as he I think he might be one of those rare pitchability guys who over-perform their stuff. But, alas he is injured and I am out on him. (Dillon Vita)

161) LUIS FRIAS, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS, (AGE: 21, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 as a third baseman, the 6’3’’ converted righty was golden in short-season and Low-A ball in 2019. Showcasing a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and hammer 12-6 curve, both of which are already plus, Frias racked up 101 strikeouts over 76.1 innings with a 2.83 ERA. While he is a bit old for Low-A, this past season was only his second season as a full-time pitcher. His command and delivery consistency are still a work in progress, but scouts feel that he has a relatively high floor as a future reliever with upside that is still a top-of-the-rotation type. Expect Frias to be tested in High-A to begin 2020 and brought along slowly if he sticks as a starter. (Greg Gibbons)

162) JHOAN DURAN, MINNESOTA TWINS, (AGE 22, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

A physical specimen with an ideal pitcher’s frame, Jhoan Duran may possess the highest upside arsenal in all of the minors. The 6’5’’ 230 lb. righty features a fastball that can get up 100 mph, a plus sinker, and a plus curveball. Scouts agree his three pitches could play in a major league bullpen as soon as this year. The Twins are currently working Duran as a starter, one who has steadily increased his innings per season, while maintaining a high strikeout rate, and generating groundballs at over 60% in 2019. There is a lot to like here, however, the primary concern with Duran is his delivery, which is enough to profile him as a future back-end bullpen piece, and suppresses his long-term fantasy value. Duran will likely start the year in Double-A, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a shot with the Twins later in the season in a relief role. (Greg Gibbons)

163) JOSH LINDBLOM, MILWAUKEE BREWERS, (AGE: 32, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Lindblom returns to MLB after three seasons overseas, signing a three-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers for north of $9 million. The 32-year-old is coming off his best KBO season in which he posted a 20-3 record with a 2.50 ERA over 194.2 innings including 189 strikeouts and only 29 walks, having improved his strikeout percentage, walk rate, and home run rate each year. The looming question is whether this will translate to MLB success. He’s currently slated as the Brewers #4 starting pitcher and profiles in the states as more of an innings eater who’s best played in favorable matchups, not all that different than Mike Fiers. Steamer projects a 4.61 ERA over 178.0 innings pitched with 174 strikeouts and 58 walks. He’s worth a flier for a contending team. (Greg Gibbons)

164) CORBIN MARTIN, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS, (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: 148)

As recently as a year ago, Martin was a rising pitching prospect in the Astros organization, coming off a 2018 campaign that showcased his ability to work in the middle of a rotation. Beginning the 2019 season, the 6’2’’ righty showed improved command, strikeout rates, and hard-hit rates, earning himself a call-up to the majors by May. Unfortunately, his debut did not go as planned as he was knocked around over five games, hurt primarily by walks, the long-ball, and unsightly 95.2 mph exit velocity on his fastball which limited him to only 19 innings. Matters only continued to get worse over the next two months as Martin underwent Tommy John surgery and was traded to the Diamondback as part of the Zack Greinke deal. While he is expected to be out for the entire 2020 season, scouts do like Martin’s underlying skill set, including above-average spin rate on multiple offerings and repeatable delivery. With health, Arizona envisions him as a mainstay in the long-term rotation plans, albeit an SP4/5. Martin’s current trade value is likely suppressed which makes him a decent low-cost starting pitcher to target for rebuilders. (Greg Gibbons)

165) CHRIS BASSITT, OAKLAND ATHLETICS, (AGE: 31, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

A bit of a late bloomer, Bassitt was an integral member of the A’s pitching staff during their wild card run this past season. He made his mark over 144 innings, managing 141 strikeouts and 47 walks in route to a 3.81 ERA. While Bassitt was a serviceable arm, there are plenty of warning signs pointing to regression including a history of poor exit velocity against and below-average hard-hit percentage. Additionally, with young hurlers AJ Puk and Jesus Luzardo on the cusp of joining the rotation, I consider Bassitt’s role to be in flux. Currently, he is projected as the sixth starter and barring any injuries it appears likely he’ll begin the year in long relief. Steamer projects 144 Innings, but his role and lack of any plus offspeed pitches ultimately limit his upside to a matchup driven streamer. (Greg Gibbons) 

166) ZACH EFLIN, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 126)

A popular breakout candidate heading into 2019, Eflin didn’t show the improvements owners were hoping to see. While he pitched a career-high 163.1 innings and managed a 4.13 ERA, his peripherals tell a different story, primarily an xFIP near 5.00. The 25-year-old shows up to six different types of pitches, but none are plus, and he generates below-average spin rates and whiff percentages on all of them which limits his strikeout upside. On a positive note, after briefly being relegated to bullpen duties late last summer, he returned to the rotation and over his final seven starts posted an ERA of 2.83 over 42.1 innings. He projects to be the fifth starter in the Phillies rotation after signing a 1-year deal, however, absent an uptick in strikeouts and further limiting walks he will not be a very valuable fantasy asset. (Greg Gibbons)

167) RYAN WEATHERS, SAN DIEGO PADRES, (AGE: 20, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Drafted seventh overall in the 2018 draft, the 6’1’’ lefty wrapped up his first full professional season, the results can be summarized as a mixed bag. Weathers brings a three-pitch mix that is highlighted by a fastball that can touch 95 mph and two average secondary offerings; a curveball and a changeup. His stat line for 2019 doesn’t tell the whole story of his season, as an injury derailed his promising start, and when he returned he just wasn’t quite the same. All in all, he posted a 3.84 ERA over 96 innings with 90 strikeouts and 18 walks. Weathers has a decently high floor and he profiles as a backend starter, but there are a few concerns heading into 2020. Mainly, he needs to get healthy and return to his pre-injury velocity, but to hold real fantasy value he needs to develop a strikeout pitch. Scouts agree Weathers is unlikely to be a strikeout factory which ultimately limits his upside. (Greg Gibbons)

168) JAKOB JUNIS, KANSAS CITY ROYALS, (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 130)

Luckily for Junis, the Royals have no other starting pitcher options heading into 2020 or else he would be relegated to bullpen duties. Everything about him is average, with the exception of a high spin slider, but an ERA and xFIP near or above 5.00 isn’t what you’re looking for in a reliable starter. The righty has 175 innings or more each of the past two seasons, but below-average strikeout rates, hard-hit rates, and exit velocity leave him vulnerable to a blow-up, a risk that I’m not willing to take. His fastball is primarily to blame, which averages only 91.7 mph, with poor spin, and poor whiff rate. The long-term hope for Junis is that a move to the bullpen will allow his fastball to play up and he can rely more on his slider to put away opposing hitters. Until that happens though, he’s best used in favorable matchups only, or better yet left on the waiver wire. (Greg Gibbons)

169) JOE RYAN, TAMPA BAY RAYS, (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

A rising prospect who may find himself much higher on this list next season is the Rays righty Joe Ryan. A seventh-round pick in the 2018 draft, Ryan climbed three levels in 2019 en route to one of the best seasons compiled by a minor league starter. He finished the year with a 1.96 ERA over 123.2 innings with 183 strikeouts and only 27 walks. Ryan floods the strike zone with an above average fastball that is coupled with a deceptive delivery. His secondary offerings are more of a work-in-progress and he will be tested as he gets into the upper minors. Expect Ryan to begin the year in Double-A, but he still needs some seasoning before he is ready to contribute to the big-league rotation. (Greg Gibbons) 

170) MICAHEL FULMER, DETROIT TIGERS, (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 79)

A third straight year falling down our rankings, Fulmer’s 2019 season was lost to Tommy John surgery. The once-promising righty will likely be returning to the Tigers by mid-season, but not much should be expected from him this season. When he was healthy, the 26-year-old featured a mid-to-upper 90’s fastball along with below-average secondary offerings, all of which offered poor spin and whiff rates. His 2016 and 2017 seasons offered a glimpse of his upside, but he never struck out enough hitters and walks were already a concern and will be a hurdle to regain command post-surgery. His pedigree makes him interesting heading into 2021 and is a low-cost trade target for rebuilding squads. (Greg Gibbons)

171) Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds, (Age: 33, Previous Rank: NR)

We’re approaching 200 in these dynasty ranks, which means that most of these guys are unexciting stream-only options in all but the deepest of leagues. Miley is no exception to this rule: he’s a well-established innings-eater, with a solid ground ball and walk rate, and a bad strikeout rate. Don’t forget, before 2018, Miley was a 5.00+ ERA pitcher in Baltimore. He had sub-4.00 ERAs thanks to some skill improvement in 2018 and 2019, as well as a heavy dosage of improved BABIP and HR/FB rate luck (the latter in 2018 only). Look for him to continue to eat innings with below average rates for the next couple seasons in Cincinnati.  (Jordan Rosenblum)

172) Alex Young, Arizona Diamondbacks, (Age: 26, Previous Rank: NR)

Young surprised people (myself included) in his rookie 2019, with a 3.56 ERA in around 80 innings pitched. He also kept the ball on the ground (48%) and limited walks well (6.8% expected BB% based on how many strikes he through). His strikeout rate was even solid, just a bit below league average (22% expected K% based on how many swinging, foul, looking, and in-play strikes he had). All of this is promising and suggests a potential slightly above league average pitcher–his xFIP and SIERA based on his xK% and xBB% were each around 4.30. On the downside, it’s quite likely he’s in the bullpen to start the year, as Mike Leake, Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, and possibly Merrill Kelly are each likely ahead of him in the pecking order for a rotation spot. He wasn’t great in the minors before 2019 either, so we might see some performance erosion in 2020. (Jordan Rosenblum)

173) Zach Davies, San Diego Padres, (Age: 27, Previous Rank: NR)

Traded to San Diego in the off-season, it’s no certainty Davies holds onto his starting rotation spot throughout 2020. San Diego’s rotation features Garrett Richards, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi, Chris Paddack, and Zach Davies to start the year, with MacKenzie Gore waiting in the wings, and Cal Quantrill adding another competitor if someone struggles. Davies has a horrific strikeout rate, and an only modestly good walk and ground ball rate–nowhere near good enough to make up for the strikeout rate. His velocity declined to 87 MPH last year as well. Don’t let the BABIP-luck driven low-ERA fool you: Davies is a stream-only option only recommended in strong matchups in 2020 and beyond. (Jordan Rosenblum)

174) Jake Arrieta, Philadelphia Phillies, (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 90)

Arrieta cratered in 2019, with his worst year since his final season in Baltimore. His SIERA approached 5.00. It’s hard to imagine he was one of the baseball’s best pitchers only a couple years ago with the Cubs. It’s almost time to give up hope of a rebound, but there is slight reason for optimism. He had a bone spur removed from his elbow late in the 2019 season. He says he’s 100% healthy now and feeling great entering 2020. Monitor his velocity, spin rate, and contact rates early on to get the jump on a potential rebound. If you don’t see any improvement, he’s best left on your wire. (Jordan Rosenblum)

175) Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

Sandoval ranked at the back-end of my top 75 stats-only starting pitching prospects entering 2020. His peak K/9, BB/9 and GB% projections are all around league average. He showed similar league average promise in his MLB debut with the Angels, perhaps a #3 or #4 starter in his prime. He put up some gaudy minor league numbers earlier in his career, with much better control, so perhaps there’s some hidden upside here. If the Angels go six starters strong with Ohtani skipping two-start weeks, Sandoval could begin the year in the rotation. (Jordan Rosenblum)

176) Logan Allen, Cleveland Indians, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 154)

Allen was a disaster after getting traded to the Indians in 2019, with an ERA approaching 8.00 in Triple-A, and over 6.00 in the MLB. He has good prospect pedigree, cracking some top 100 lists, and his minor league numbers are suggestive of someone with #4 starter upside at peak. With the Indians rotation banged up, he should compete for a rotation spot right away. Whether he can hold one for the whole year is another question. He’s only 23, though, so he should get plenty of chances in the coming years.  (Jordan Rosenblum)

177) Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals, (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 140)

In around 300 career innings pitched, Keller has an xFIP and SIERA well below league average, both around 4.9. He’s a worm burner with mediocre control and little ability to miss bats. Nothing about his minor league track record suggests any hidden upside here. He’s an established commodity, a fine #5 starter on an MLB team. Stream only! (Jordan Rosenblum)

178) Jon Duplantier, Arizona Diamondbacks, (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 100)

Jon Duplantier joins Patrick Sandoval at the backend of my top 75 stats-only SP prospects list. He struggled mightily with control across the majors and minors all year, eclipsing 4 BB/9 at each level (approaching 7 BB/9 in Triple-A). His control was never such an issue pre-2019, so it should regress somewhat positively in 2020. He also has good strikeout potential and should eclipse 9 K/9 at his peak. He’ll need to cut the walks by a lot in 2020 and beyond to stick as a league average-ish starter, or else he is destined for the bullpen—where he could be a weapon. In any case, it’s unlikely he starts much for the Diamondbacks in 2020, as they have a ton of depth ahead of him in the pecking order.  (Jordan Rosenblum)

179) Daulton Jefferies, Oakland Athletics, (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)

It’s difficult to get excited about a starting pitcher this far down in the ranks, but Daulton Jefferies manages to accomplish it. He only pitched 21 innings total in three seasons prior to 2019, constantly battling injuries. He returned with a vengeance in 2019, though, dominating the minors at every stop, including Double-A, the highest level he reached (10 K/9 1 BB/9 in 64 IP). The A’s weren’t that careful with him either, allowing him to average about 3 IP per appearance. This far down the list, he offers unique upside: a well above average MLB pitcher with elite control and a solid ability to miss bats. If he continues to struggle with his health, though, the A’s may decide it’s safer to use him in the bullpen. (Jordan Rosenblum)

180) Jordan Lyles, Texas Rangers, (Age: 29, Previous Rank: NR)

The Rangers rewarded Lyles’ solid 2019 with a two-year contract to round out the back of their rotation. Lyles allowed an unusual amount of flyballs in 2019, hurting his xFIP (4.61), but his strikeout (9.3 K/9) and walk (3.5 BB/9) rates were very solid. If the 2020 baseball reverts to the less juicy 2018 baseball, and Texas’ new ballpark dimensions lean more neutral than hitter-friendly, Lyles should be a fine final starter to round out your fantasy rotation. If he continues to allow a lot of fly balls, the 2020 ball remains juicy, and Texas remains Colorado 2.0, he’s best left on the wire, to be saved for streaming purposes only. (Jordan Rosenblum)

181) Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants, (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 95)

After getting traded from the Orioles to the Braves in 2018, Gausman pitched fairly well with the help of some good fortune (2.87 ERA/3.78 FIP/4.46 xFIP). The pendulum of luck swung in the other direction for Gausman in 2019. While his FIP went up slightly (3.78 to 4.20), his ERA ballooned to 6.19. The Braves understandably released Gausman. The Reds took a flier on him as a relief arm where he performed well for the rest of the season. With the departure of Madison Bumgarner, the Giants needed to try to fill the void, so they gave Gausman a 1-year contract. San Francisco should be a good landing place for him as their home field is bottom in the league for park factor in runs and home runs. Gausman will be a roll of the dice, but he is in a position to improve upon his 2019 season. (Tyler Burgess)

182) Mike Fiers, Oakland Athletics, (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 152)

At this point in his career, Mike Fiers has begun a downward slide towards the end of his career. Although he’s posted middle-rotation ERAs the last two seasons (3.56 and 3.90, respectively), his strikeout rate has started to drop significantly. He maintains strong control (7.0% walk rate compared to 8.5% league average), but that’s about the only silver lining for him. He sported a 4.97 FIP and 5.19 xFIP for the A’s last year and a rather fortunate .254 average on balls put in play. We expect a negative regression for the 2020 season. Expect an ERA closer to 4.5 and uninspiring strikeout numbers. He’s more useful in real life as an innings eater than in fantasy at this point. (Tyler Burgess)

183) Matthew Allan, New York Mets, (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR)

Across five starts in six games between Rookie and Low-A in 2019, Allan started his minor league career with fairly strong numbers (14 strikeouts to 5 walks and 10 hits in 10.1 innings). Already a sturdy hurler at 6’3” and 225 pounds, and only 18 years old Allan still has room to grow. He boasts a mid-90’s fastball to pair with a plus curveball that hangs in the upper-70s to low-80s. As a starter, he will need to develop his changeup a bit more to make it through the rigors of the upper minors, but things are looking good for Allan. (Tyler Burgess)

184) Anthony Kay, Toronto Blue Jays, (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)

A former first-round pick for the Mets, Kay worked his way up the minor league ladder in 2019 before being traded to the Blue Jays before the trade deadline. He started seven games for the Blue Jays’ AAA affiliate and, while his walk rate was a bit high (5.5 walks per 9 innings), he showed strong strikeout numbers and a sub-3 ERA. After September call-ups, Kay managed a 2.64 FIP in three games (two starts). A left-handed pitcher with the looks of a mid-rotation starter, Kay has to work on controlling his repertoire better, but all three of his pitches show big-league promise. (Tyler Burgess)

185) Tanner Roark, Toronto Blue Jays, (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 119)

Roark spent his major league career on the Nationals up until 2019. He spent a bulk of the season with Reds before finishing with the A’s. He ended up signing a two-year pact with the Blue Jays via free agency in December. The epitome of a mid-rotation starter, Roark shows up on game day, eats innings, collects his paycheck and goes home. He’s not going to set the world on fire in any one category but will provide some strong starts along the way. The Blue Jays wisely acquired some help for Roark on top of the rotation by signing Hyun-Jin Ryu less than two weeks after Roark. (Tyler Burgess)

186) Joe Ross, Washington Nationals, (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 145)

Ross, a former teammate of Tanner Roark and a poor man’s version of the same, signed a one-year deal with the Nationals in January to avoid arbitration. After briefly finding success in the rotation during his first two seasons in the league, Ross struggled with an above-5 ERA for the Nats. He started the 2019 season as a reliever, but after allowing more runs than innings pitched, he was moved back into the rotation where he managed a 3.02 ERA. His peripherals during that span were not so friendly, so don’t expect an ERA in the low 3’s from our #186 ranked starting pitcher and the last man in the Nationals rotation. (Tyler Burgess)

187) Bryan Mata, Boston Red Sox, (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)

Despite debuting in the Red Sox Rookie-level ball in 2016, Mata is still just 20 years old. A work in progress over the last few years, Mata had a very rough 2018 campaign where he walked 58 batters in just 72 innings. Things seemed to get back on track for Mata in 2019, but he still has a long way to go with his control. He has several pitches in his arsenal (four- and two-seam fastballs, a cutter, a curveball, and a changeup). He has the look of a potential back-end starter or if he trims his repertoire down to a pair of plus pitches, a bullpen arm. (Tyler Burgess)

188) Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres, (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)

Drafted in 2017, Cantillo has shown flashes in his time with the Padres’ minor league affiliates. During the 2019 season, he managed to cut his walk rate down to 7.3% to go with his sub-2 ERA. At 6’4”, 220 pounds, Cantillo has the build to become a workhorse if health allows. He sports a low-90’s fastball with a very good changeup to match. He needs to work on his other pitches if he wants to succeed at the next level of the minors. Once he develops a breaking ball to match his 1-2 punch, he should have a chance to sniff the majors in a September call-up. Look for Cantillo to get a taste of the big leagues in 2-3 years. (Tyler Burgess)

189) Eric Lauer, Milwaukee Brewers, (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)

After a not-quite-full 2019 season (149.2 innings across 30 games, 29 starts), Lauer has established a spot for himself at the back of the Brewer’s rotation. Lauer checks all of the boxes of a third or fourth rotation starter – almost every statistic during his 2019 campaign was along league average lines. One major change in this past season compared to 2018 is Lauer has tightened up his mid-80’s slider into an upper-80’s cutter. Lauer should continue to post very solid mid-rotation numbers for the coming season and could see his future projections tick up slightly if he improves his control. (Tyler Burgess)

190) Rich Hill, Minnesota Twins, (Age: 39, Previous Rank: 88)

Hill never quite seems to be able to stay healthy. Entering his 16th season, only once has Hill ever logged more than 136 innings in a season. 2019 was no different, and he finished the year having pitched 58.2 innings in 13 starts. The painful thing with Hill is that when he’s been healthy, he’s good for a low-3’s ERA, high strikeout numbers, and good control. He’s teased the ability to be a third-to-second starter if healthy for the entire season, but that’s not the status quo for him. With the move back to the American League, Hill will hope to manage a 3.5-4 ERA in 100-115 innings with retirement a year-to-year prospect. (Tyler Burgess)

191) Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves, (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 60)

To be honest, I think his days in the starting rotation are numbered. He has a nice curve, but the other pitches are quite underwhelming. If he can somehow stay in the rotation despite the prospects coming up, he might be worth taking a shot though because his fastball and slider weren’t terrible and before last year all four of pitches looked pretty good. If he’s literally free, there’s worse people to take a gamble on. If his stuff can get back to what it was before, then there’s some upside to him. Worst comes to worse, he should be a pretty nice reliever. (Dillon Vita)

192) Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals, (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 149)

Danny Duffy is another incredibly boring pitcher. Not only is he not good, he’s also over the magical 30 (he’s 31) and he also doesn’t pitch that many innings. Last year he pitched 130.2 innings and he’s only ever pitched more than 160 innings once in his career. That was in 2016 and was 179.2 innings. He isn’t much of a strike out guy (7.92 K/9 last year) and won’t help you with a good WHIP due to his high walk rate (3.17 bb/9 last year). On top of all that, he’s on a bad team so won’t get many wins. I’m really trying to find something to like about Duffy, but I am really not a fan. I suppose the changeup was pretty good last year and he had 3 positive pitches by pVal (fastball, slider, and changeup). But, that wasn’t the case in 2018. And I don’t think any of them are really that good. So, I will not have him on my team if I can help it. (Dillon Vita)

193) Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

I was so excited for Logan Webb when he got called up last year. It didn’t turn out well for him. 5.22 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 3.18 BB/9, and 8.38 K/9 don’t really instill confidence. I would like to say his peripherals are good to get our hopes up. While they indicate he’s better than last year, they are definitely not good. His slider was very good, but one pitch just isn’t going to cut it in the bigs. I’m betting on the minor league track record because he’s still only 23. I think his ERA and WHIP can drop down to more respectable levels. Maybe a mid-4 ERA, 1.25 WHIP back-end starter with upside for better and upside for high strikeouts. But, I definitely don’t feel good about it. (Dillon Vita)

194) Matt Shoemaker, Toronto Blue Jays, (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 188)

Shoemaker is currently slated as Toronto’s fourth starting pitcher. But, he’s already 33 and only has one pitch. His splitter is quite nice but every other pitch is pretty darn awful. Last year the slider and sinker performed really well, but they both had an xWOBA around .440, which tells me there’s a ton of regression coming for him. His fourseamer performed poorly last year and was expected to be bad, so there shouldn’t be much regression there. Additionally, his SIERA and FIP indicate he should have had an ERA closer to 4 rather than his 1.57. He doesn’t walk that many people, but he also doesn’t strike out many. His Swinging Strike rate is over 13 so there is some strikeout upside. But, I think that’s because his pitches overperformed. Within two months, I doubt he’s still in the rotation Nate Perason can easily kick him out of the rotation and so can one of Toronto’s other young arms like Anthony Kay or Trent Thornton. (Dillon Vita)

195) Chase Anderson, Toronto Blue Jays, (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 157)

Chase Anderson is also in Toronto’s rotation, but he’s currently slated as the number 2 on Roster Resource. Like Shoemaker, he’s also on the wrong side of 30. He’s 32. However, that’s where the similarities end because Chase Anderson actually has more than one pitch. Granted, they’re pretty much all average. But he at least has five pitches that aren’t bad (four-seamer, changeup, cutter, curve, sinker). He’s likely not going to be 2017 Chase Anderson, but his floor is solid. He’s probably going to be a low 4’s ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.20. His strikeout upside isn’t super high, but he’ll probably be able to sustain K/9 above 8. But, because his floor is pretty solid I’m willing to bet he can stay in the rotation all year as long as he stays healthy. (Dillon Vita)

196) Ethan Small, Milwaukee Brewers, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

The love that I have for Ethan Small is not small by any means. He’s likely a middle of the rotation starter at best. But, I think he has sneaky number 2 upside. Granted he hasn’t pitched much in the minors yet, but the early results have been very good. Ethan Small is more floor than ceiling, but I think he is the odd type of prospect who can play above their stuff because of their pitchability and control. But he still should have three above average pitches when all is said and done so worst comes to worse he should at least be a back of the rotation starter. (Dillon Vita)

197) Quinn Priester, Pittsburgh Pirates, (Age: 19, Previous Rank: NR)

Going into this past draft, Quinn Priester was one of the top prep arms. I really like Priester’s upside, but like any high school arm he is of course high risk. He had a nice showing in 32.2 innings of rookie ball with a 3.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and peripherals to back it up. Priester already has a nice four pitch mix and has nice control to go with it. Also, in high school, he taught himself all of his pitches by watching youtube videos which speak loads toward his make up. I’m excited to see what this new Pittsburgh regime can do with him. When all is said and done, I see a front of the rotation ceiling for Priester and I’m definitely buying in. (Dillon Vita)

198) Vince Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies, (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 86)

The Phillies rotation isn’t looking too hot today. And that’s exemplified by their having Vince Velasquez as their number 4. The highest ERA estimator last year was his SIERA and even it was only 4.36. I really don’t see a sub 4 ERA being in the realm of possibilities and he very well may lose his spot with Spencer Howard coming up soon. He, Nick Pivetta, and Zack Eflin are all in a tier of ugliness and Nick Pivetta could knock him out too. As a full time starter, Velasquez has never had below a 1.33 WHIP so that’s not great either. The good news is he does have a good capacity for strikeouts. So if you just want an arm at least he helps you in one category. The past two seasons he has had a 11.2 Swinging Strike rate which is nice for the type of arm he is. His curve is nice and his fastball and slider were good in 2018, but I don’t see much upside here. (Dillon Vita)

199) Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies, (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 37)

I wonder if, when we all have grandchildren, we will look back on Kyle Freeland’s 2018 like our parents do the Dexys Midnight Runners whenever “Come On Eileen” plays at a Wedding, or really any occasion with a dance floor. There’s not much to like about his 2019 and I’m not sure I can believe in any Coors pitcher’s sub 3 ERA season like Freeland had in 2018. At the time, fantasy circles were saying Freeland’s 2018 happened because he was pinpointing his pitches. But, that just doesn’t stack up with his 3.11 BB/9. His 1.25 WHIP did not quite match his 2.85 ERA and neither did any of the ERA estimators like SIERA (4.35) and FIP (3.67). Freeland’s 2019 doesn’t really have any nice stat. I don’t think he is really anything remotely close to his 2018, plus he doesn’t even strikeout people. I’ll pass on Freeland even if he is free. (Dillon Vita)

200) Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 110)

Right now Peralta is projected to be in the Brewers bullpen. Honestly, I actually like Peralta and if he had a spot in the rotation, I would be buying stock in him. But, last year was not kind to him. By pVal, he didn’t have any positive pitches. If Peralta gets a chance in the rotation and wants to stay there, he’s going to have to actually use a third pitch. Right now his changeup is his third pitch, but is only used 1.1%. Because it’s not used much, it’s kind of funny looking at pVal vs xWOBA. The pVal says it’s terrible (-10.49 per 100 pitches) while xWOBA says it’s actually pretty good (.288). It’s likely somewhere in the middle and probably leaning toward bad because when he was a prospect it was supposed to be below average. But, he has a lot of strikeout upside if he gets a shot. As of now both his fastball and slider both induce whiffs around 30 percent of the time and he strikes out over 12 per 9. The real issue for him is the walks and that along with his refusal to throw a third pitch makes the bullpen the more likely place for him. (Dillon Vita)

The Author

Ian Hudson

Ian Hudson

Ian is an editor for The Dynasty Guru and a bowtie enthusiast. If you guessed one of those things about him you could probably guess the other.

He's also an attorney in Tampa, Florida.

Go Rays.

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