2020 Dynasty Baseball RankingsDynasty Baseball

The Dynasty Guru’s 2020 Top 125 Outfielders, #76-100

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Without further ado, it’s time to continue our 2020 consensus rankings by looking at the 76-100 best outfielders in dynasty leagues.

76) Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 20)

Cain’s down 2019 was mostly a mirage: his exit velocity was mostly in line with recent career norms, and his xwOBA was .330, slightly down from its .346 career average since 2015. His BABIP, K%, and BB% each regressed slightly, and it’s reasonable to expect those trends to continue gradually given his advanced age. Additionally, 20 stolen bases are now more reasonable to expect than his career-best 30 in 2018. Put it all together and he’s still a top 40 OF for 2020, with elite as ever CF defense keeping him in the lineup every day, 10-15 home runs, and 20 stolen bases. Given gradual decline has set in, his value takes a substantial hit in the longer term. (Jordan Rosenblum)

77) A.J. Pollock, Los Angeles Dodgers, (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 34)

In most ways, Pollock’s first year in LA (2019) was identical to his final season in Arizona, with virtually identical plate discipline and power numbers (e.g., isolated power, exit velocity, xwOBA, wOBA). One notable decline though was in the speed department: after years as a strong defender, his outfield defense collapsed, and he was on pace for less than 10 stolen bases in a full season, well below career norms. Moving forward, expect normal Pollock except with only 10 stolen bases—and 20-25 bombs, and a .270/.330/.470 triple slash. Additionally, for once the Dodgers outfield isn’t so crowded, assuming Joc Pederson is indeed traded to the Angels. Pollock has no notable platoon split, and he should play every day in 2020. (Jordan Rosenblum)

78) Hunter Bishop, San Francisco Giants, (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR)

One of the top power-speed combinations in the 2019 draft, Bishop has serious boom-bust potential for 2020. He got off to a solid start in the Short-Season Northwest league, with a bunch of walks (25% BB), even more than his strikeouts (24% K), and four home runs and 6 stolen bases in 117 plate appearances. Adjusting for his age and league difficulty, and positively regressing his poor BABIP luck, his full 2019 minor league performance translates to a solid .351 peak MLB wOBA. It’s still a small sample of performance data, though; look for him to skyrocket up top 100 lists with a strong start to the 2020 season, or otherwise find himself missing from them entirely after a cold start. Given the upside, I personally will be investing in some shares to find out. (Jordan Rosenblum)

79) Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies, (Age: 33 Previous rank: 53)

McCutchen played less than half of 2019 making him available on discount in 2020. He’s one of the game’s most consistent offensive producers and a lock to play every day. He hasn’t been a star since 2015, of course, but he’s still a damn fine player. His skills were all typical-McCutchen when he played in 2019, with 16% BB%, 21% K, and 91 MPH average exit velocity, with a .355 xwOBA. This is basically what’s he has done every year since 2016; you can pencil him in for another .260/.370/.450 triple slash, with 25-ish bombs in 2020. On the downside, he only stole 2 bags in almost half a season in 2019; he might not even give you 10 of those anymore in a full year. Nonetheless, you can count on him as a championship-caliber OF3 until he shows signs of decline. (Jordan Rosenblum)

80) Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals, (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 48)

You’ve known what you’re getting with Eaton for years now: excellent plate discipline and batting average to go along with around 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Remarkably, his xwOBA has hovered between .340 and .345 each year since 2016: Eaton is to xwOBA as pre-2019 Khris Davis was to batting average.  He’s only 31, so any substantial age-related decline should hold off for a few more years.  A great OF3 in the reigning champion’s lineup, don’t sleep on his boring consistency. (Jordan Rosenblum)

81) Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 59)

After a fairly quick rise up the OF rankings, Sanchez has seemed to stall as he reached Triple A. The raw tools that led to the excitement from dynasty owners are still there, but Double-A and Triple-A slowed his production. Stolen bases have all but disappeared and the batting average has declined steadily with each jump up in competition. The good news is the midseason move from the Rays to the Marlins helped his timeline, it is very possible that we see the 22-year-old make his major league debut early in the season. This likely represents the best buying window if you still believe in the raw tools. (Paul Monte)

82) Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 28)

2019 was a difficult season for the oft-injured 30-year-old. Struggling to begin the season with back issues, he finished the season with Tommy John surgery in October. The recovery timeline is much shorter for position players, but it is still unlikely that owners will see much from Hicks in 2020. The 54-spot drop can partially be blamed on the injuries, but Hicks did not make the leap that many were hoping to see while he was playing. In fact, he regressed, seeing his K% increase and BB% decrease. With that, the batting average dropped, and the stolen bases were limited to one. He still has some pop, as he hit 12 home runs in his 221 at-bats, but the overall 5 category production took a big hit. (Paul Monte)

83) Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 37)

Once a top-25 dynasty OF, the breakout season that people expected after his 2016 numbers have yet to materialize. There is a reason for optimism, Pirates GM Ben Cherington has said that the shoulder is 100% healthy. If Polanco is healthy, at 28 years old and his current depressed price, he could be a great comeback player of the year candidate. You’ll need to look past the 2019 and assume that he was never full strength. The stolen bases could continue to decline, but the power should increase, making him an interesting flyer in dynasty leagues this year. The owner that has held him for two years may have run out of patience, another small setback in Spring Training could provide a huge discount. (Paul Monte)

84) Clint Frazier, New York Yankees (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 65)

One of the most frustrating players to own over the last year or two has been the 25-year-old Yankees outfielder. Frazier finally broke into the starting lineup in 2019 and came out on fire. After his first 18 games, he had posted a .324 batting average and 6 home runs. He sprained an ankle, went on the IL and caught fire again at the end of May through mid-June when he was sent down to the minors to make room for the newly acquired Edwin Encarnacion. The Yankees mentioned that he needed to work on his defense and that will continue to haunt him as his career progresses. Players who are better on fantasy than in real life always carry this extra risk, and Frazier fits the bill. Spring Training will be interesting as he will battle Mike Tauchman for time in LF. (Paul Monte)

85) Brandon Marsh, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 94)

We can finally move past the doom and gloom of the players further up this list and talk about a player who continues to climb the ladder. There is not much to find fault in Marsh’s game, as he has continued to grow from a very athletic second-round pick in the 2016 draft. Marsh has continued to adjust and check off boxes as he has progressed throughout the minor leagues. The power is the last to come but some mid-season swing changes are expected to improve his propensity to hit the ball straight into the ground. If he can lift the ball and use his 6’4” frame, he could very well be a 20/20 outfielder. Defense will not hold him back as he can play all 3 OF positions well, it’s a matter of time before we see a Trout/Adell/Marsh OF in Anaheim. (Paul Monte)

86) Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 102)

After debuting as a 22-year-old in 2017, he was not seen again until September callups in 2019. In 21 games Hays once again showed a spark that has kept him on the dynasty radar even while spending a year and a half toiling in the minors. His MLB numbers were much better than what he showed while in the minors but playing for the Orioles may be his biggest asset. He should have a very long leash this year and patient owners should be able to plug him into their lineups daily. If he settles somewhere between his minor and major league numbers, we could be looking at a 20 home runs, a half a dozen steals and a league-average batting average. Not necessarily sexy, but it won’t hurt you in deep leagues. (Paul Monte)

87) Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 39)

After that brief prospect interlude, we return to the “what the hell happened to him” portion of the rankings. What happened was obvious with the Met CF as he spent three months on the Injured List with a bulging disk in his neck. The injury likely happened in mid-April and he was finally shut down in May. Nimmo gets a huge boost in OBP leagues as his walk rate has been at 15% or better in the past three years. He should regain his CF job back to start in 2020.  His numbers may be very similar to the guy above him on the list, add a couple steals, take away about 10 points of batting average. (Paul Monte)

88) Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 41)

After peaking at 41 in the rankings in 2019 another partial season in St. Louis has found O’Neill dropping 47 spots. Unable to stay healthy and having a bad habit of striking out are two of the biggest reasons for the drop. Although there was an improvement from 2018 to 2019 in the strikeout percentage, he went from hopeless to terrible at 35.1%. The offseason trade of Randy Arozarena and Jose Martinez to Tampa Bay takes away some of the competition for playing time, but he will need to be much more productive to claim more. (Paul Monte)

89) Wil Myers, San Diego Padres (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 27)

For the second straight season, Myers disappointed. On the surface, the numbers were not horrible, 18 home runs, 16 stolen bases in just 490 at-bats. The problem was Myers was no longer an everyday starter, and when he did start, he was often lifted for a pinch hitter. Playing time concerns remain as there are new names in a still crowded San Diego outfield. He is young enough to turn it around, but he may need a trade to get a real opportunity to do so. If he can earn those at-bats again, he can be a steal at his current ADP of 273, the 72nd OF off the board. (Paul Monte)

90) Corey Dickerson, Miami Marlins (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 75)

Four years after leaving Coors field, Dickerson still does not get the respect he should for the numbers he has put up. Dickerson hit over .300 for the second straight season and for the 4th time in his career in what amounted to a half a season due to injuries. The Marlins should give him a chance to play every day and he will slot into the middle of the order. The fences are coming in Marlins Park which has traditionally been a difficult place to hit home runs, that should help his power output. Just a few spots lower in current ADP than Myers, Dickerson has a very good chance at meeting and exceeding value for the next couple of years. (Paul Monte)

91) Avisail Garcia, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 114)

Prepare yourself, precious reader: avisail, I mean I will sell, this dude to you now.

After a bounce-back season with the Rays, Garcia signed a two-year deal to roam the outfield in Milwaukee. He is the Brewers primary left fielder versus lefties, and will compete with Ryan Braun for at-bats versus righties as well. At this point in his career, you know what you can expect from him; his 2019 xwOBA (.342) was about the same as his career xwOBA (.341). I’d expect a repeat of his 2019, around .280/.330/.460 with 20-25 home runs if he plays every day–a fine OF3/OF4. The newfound stolen bases are nice too (10 in 2019). Just be careful with him, as his platoon risk versus righties is high. (Jordan Rosenblum)

92) David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 51)

Peralthe evidence David is a reliable above-average bat and a trustworthy OF3. In fact, he has never posted below a 104 wRC+ at any point in his MLB career. His health is a bit of a question mark, as he’s coming off a shoulder injury, but the D-backs were confident enough to give him a 3-year $22M extension in January, so I wouldn’t worry much. Also a strong defender, he’s a lock to play every day for the D-backs for the next couple years. Look for about 20 home runs with good plate discipline and a strong batting average. (Jordan Rosenblum)

93) Mark Canha, Oakland Athletics (Age: 31, Previous Rank: NR)

When you ask your league mate if they’ll throw in that Oakland OF into a trade, they’ll probably reply something like, “sure, you canha-ve him.” This will be a mistake: Canha is a patient and powerful bat, with only a moderate amount of strikeouts, and no sharp platoon split. He had his best season in 2019, with a .386 wOBA (.362 xwOBA), and can be relied upon to sustain much of the 2019 gains in 2020. Look for him to play every day with Laureano and Piscotty in the Athletics outfield, pushing 25 home runs, with solid counting stats thanks to a strong on-base percentage. (Jordan Rosenblum)

94) Jordyn Adams, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 121)

Always receiving strong grades for his tools, Adams’ minor league performance has yet to catch up. Based on his performance relative to his age and league, I project him for a .329 peak MLB wOBA, which would make him basically league average. On the bright side, even in that scenario Adams could still offer decent value as an OF3 thanks to his wheels. There’s always the chance his power takes a step forward too, and his statistical performance starts to catch up to the tools. Until he shows some promising signs, be careful not to overpay, i.e., you can give a single damn about him, but I wouldn’t give (multiple) adams. (Jordan Rosenblum)

95) Alexander Canario, San Francisco Giants (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)

When you were out with your bird watching friends this past baseball season and one shouted, “canary, oh!” you’d be forgiven for thinking they had just spotted a most wonderful creature. What you failed to notice, however, is that they were actually on their phone, looking at Northwest League leaderboards on Fangraphs. Near the top of those leaderboards was the Giants 19-year-old Alexander Canario, in the midst of a breakout season. He posted a .400 peak MLB-equivalent wOBA translation in 2019. Adding regression, this dropped to a still strong .358 peak MLB-equivalent wOBA projection, making him a back-end top 40 stats-only hitting prospect. I for one, am excited to see how real the 2019 breakthrough was in 2020. If he repeats his strong performance in the first half, look for him to start appearing on top prospect lists. (Jordan Rosenblum)

96) Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 40)

What a roller coaster ride these last couple years have been for Ian Happ. He had a strong rookie year, looking poised to breakout in 2018. He then threw us for a loop, forgetting how to make contact in 2018 (36% strikeout rate), although still hitting for power. He got sent down in 2019 and struggled to a below-average 97 wRC+ in Triple-A, before getting recalled and crushing the ball in the majors in August and September (127 wRC+ on the season). His strikeout rate came back to earth in the majors too (25%). Look for him to settle into a moderate middle ground between the volatile extremes of these past years as he enters his prime. He could approach 30 home runs and 10 stolen bases with full playing time, with a high strikeout rate keeping the batting average down. Struggles versus lefties and the presence of Albert Almora likely means he’ll be in a platoon role, but he’s got a chance to play everyday between the OF and 2B if he hits enough. (Jordan Rosenblum)

97) Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 62)

Margot hasn’t yet lived up to the prospect hype, with a .250/.300/.390 career triple-slash, just enough to keep him the lineup given his strong center field defense. He adds decent plate discipline, along with some speed and power, with 10-15 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases per year. To take his game to the next level, he’ll need to ramp up the power production, rediscovering some of the raw strength he showed in 2018 (with a solid, 89 MPH average exit velocity, down to 87 in 2019). The Padres are running out of patience for him, and if he continues to struggle with the bat he will lose playing time in their crowded outfield. Pham and Grisham are a lock to play every day, while Margot and Myers have been prominently featured in trade rumors this off-season. If Myers is traded, Margot should play every day; if not, he’s a 4th outfielder. (Jordan Rosenblum)

98) Shin-soo Choo, Texas Rangers (Age: 38, Previous Rank: 103)

The 38-year-old Choo continues to chug right along, with 24 home runs, typically strong walk rates paired with solid strikeout rates, and a surprising, general aging curves-defying 15 stolen bases. It was his 12th straight season as an above-average hitter, and even more impressively, if his 5th straight season with an xwOBA above .350. He’s a free agent in 2021, and who knows how much longer he’ll keep playing. As long as he is playing though, you know what you’re getting with him–lock him in as your OF3. (Jordan Rosenblum)

99) Josh Rojas, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)

After a forgettable 2018, Rojas had a breakout 2019, posting absolutely massive Double and Triple-A numbers (even after adjusting for the new ball): he had 23 home runs and 33 stolen bases in a bit less than 500 minor league plate appearances. He then held his own, flashing good raw skills, in a brief MLB sample: 89 MPH average exit velocity, 26% K%, 11% BB, .326 xwOBA. He has a very fantasy-friendly game and could be a force if he receives everyday playing time, offering eligibility as SS, 2B, 3B, and OF. Unfortunately for Rojas, the D-backs have had a busy off-season of acquisitions, bringing in Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun to join David Peralta in the outfield, pushing Ketel Marte to 2B full-time, with Eduardo Escobar, and Nick Ahmed occupying 3B and SS, respectively. Rojas will serve as a super-utility guy, needing an injury to get his chance to shine–no small possibility given the fragility of the D-backs outfielders. (Jordan Rosenblum)

100) Shogo Akiyama, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 32, Previous Rank: NR)

This fella shogo quite high in re-draft leagues: he’s a stellar defender in center field who should offer 15 bombs and 15 stolen bases right away. His MLB-equivalent statistics for the past three years in Japan are around .310/.375/.442. Some are sleeping on his bat, but the available evidence suggests he’s a solid, above-average hitter. Akiyama’s center field defense makes him the clear front runner for the CF job if he even comes close to approaching the offensive ability he displayed for years in Japan. With Castellanos and Akiyama likely locking up two starting outfield spots, Winker, Senzel, and Aquino will have to battle it out for the third. The only real ding here is age: a 32-year-old rookie has somewhat limited appeal in a dynasty. Nonetheless, he could be 30 spots higher on this list a year from now. (Jordan Rosenblum)

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Paul Monte

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