As the calendar approaches March, many dynasty leagues are preparing for first year player drafts. While the recently released 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects includes the vast majority of first year player draft prospects, it may be difficult to separate such players from the pack. As such, these rankings specifically focus on this subset of prospects, diving even deeper than the Top 500! Further, two additional top 25 rankings based upon upside-only and on-base percentage follow the main rankings.

To see where the prospects below now fall in the overall rankings, you can obtain access to the updated (January) Top 600 Dynasty League Players with a small donation. Note, however, some prospect rankings have changed since I updated the Top 600.

2019 Top 125 First Year Player Draft Prospects

Observations

Recommendation: Trade Down

This draft class does not possess a consensus top prospect. Further, fantasy minds across the industry differ as to the order of the top of the class. Naturally, and understandably, the value difference among the top five is nominal, and the next nine are also quite close. Arguably, the order of the top 15 prospects is a matter of personal preference. As such, I highly recommend owners with early picks to trade down.

Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly is a 30-year-old prospect, and a former member of the Tampa Bay Rays organization. The Diamondbacks recently signed him as an international free agent acquisition after he spent several years in the Korean Baseball Organization. Technically, Kelly is not a “first year” player. However, he is almost certainly available in most, if not all, leagues. On these rankings, he would slot at 92, after Blaine Knight.

Notable Unranked Loud Debuts

• Cal Stevenson, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (.369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases and a 24-to-64 strikeout-to-walk ratio)
• Zack Shannon, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (.354/.439/.677 with 14 home runs in Pioneer League)
• Nathan Eaton, OF/2B/3B, Kansas City Royals (.354/.427/.581 with 5 home runs and 19 stolen bases in Pioneer League)
• Keegan McGovern, OF, Seattle Mariners (.268/.351/.523 with 15 home runs in Low-A Midwest League)
• David Fry, C/1B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers (.315/.406/.563 with 12 home runs in Pioneer League)
• Gus Varland, RHP, Oakland Athletics (0.95/0.82 ERA/WHIP, 38 IP, 50/8 K/BB)
• Adam Wolf, LHP, Detroit Tigers (2.19/1.14 ERA/WHIP, 37 IP, 32/12 K/BB)
• Rodney Hutchison, RHP, New York Yankees (1.97/1.00 ERA/WHIP, 32 IP, 31/6 K/BB)
• Ryan Feltner, RHP, Colorado Rockies (0.88/0.65 ERA/WHIP, 30 2/3 IP, 39/4 K/BB)
• James McArthur, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (0.54/0.81 ERA/WHIP, 33 1/3 IP, 35/11 K/BB)

Upside-Only Top 25

The first year player draft rankings consider three, separate fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. Importantly, a fourth “tool” analyzed is risk, which considers a multitude of factors, including, but not limited to, fielding, level, opportunity, industry reputation, age, and injury history. What would the rankings look like focused solely on upside?

Top 25 Upside-Only FYPD Prospects

On-Base Percentage Top 25

In addition, many dynasty leagues do not employ standard 5-by-5 scoring. Rather, many leagues substitute batting average with on-base percentage. The old adage, patience is a virtue, carries new weight in such leagues. Understandably, this shift in scoring has a dramatic impact on dynasty rankings; most notably, among hitters. For first year player draft prospects, it is often unclear how hitting approaches will develop over time. Further, statistical evidence gleaned from college, summer league, or high school performance can be wildly misleading. Consequently, these abbreviated rankings attempt to highlight perceived changes in value based on hitting approach.

Top 25 OBP FYPD Prospects

Additionally, you can find more information about the most of the first year player draft prospects above in the articles below.

Jesse Roche's 2019 Prospect Series

Please feel free to post comments, questions, or your own observations!

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