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2019 First Year Player Draft Rankings

As the calendar approaches March, many dynasty leagues are preparing for first year player drafts. While the recently released 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects includes the vast majority of first year player draft prospects, it may be difficult to separate such players from the pack. As such, these rankings specifically focus on this subset of prospects, diving even deeper than the Top 500! Further, two additional top 25 rankings based upon upside-only and on-base percentage follow the main rankings.

To see where the prospects below now fall in the overall rankings, you can obtain access to the updated (January) Top 600 Dynasty League Players with a small donation. Note, however, some prospect rankings have changed since I updated the Top 600.

The form is not published.

2019 Top 125 First Year Player Draft Prospects

RankPlayerPOS.SEC. POS.Age2018 LevelETA
1Casey Mize DETRHP-21.91GCL, A+2020
2Nolan Gorman STL3B-18.88APP, A2021
3Nick Madrigal CHW2B-22.04AZL, A, A+2020
4Jarred Kelenic SEAOF-19.70GCL, APP2021
5Yusei Kikuchi SEALHP-27.78NPB2019
6Jonathan India CIN3BSS22.29APP, PIO, A2020
7Joey Bart SFC-22.29AZL, NWL2020
8Alec Bohm PHI3B-22.65GCL, NYP2020
9Victor Victor Mesa MIAOF-22.69N/A2020
10Xavier Edwards SDSS2B19.64AZL, NWL2022
11Trevor Larnach MINOF-22.09APP, A2020
12Travis Swaggerty PITOF-21.61NYP, A2020
13Julio Pablo Martinez TEXOF-23.02DSL, NWL2020
14Jordyn Adams LAAOF-19.44AZL, PIO2022
15Nico Hoerner CHCSS-21.88AZL, NWL, A2020
16Matthew Liberatore TBLHP-19.39GCL, APP2022
17Grant Lavigne COL1B-19.59PIO2022
18Cole Winn TEXRHP-19.34AZL2022
19Brady Singer KCRHP-22.65N/A2020
20Seth Beer HOUOF1B22.53NYP, A, A+2020
21Jordan Groshans TORSS3B19.38GCL, APP2022
22Marco Luciano SFSS-17.55N/A2023
23Triston Casas BOS3B1B19.20GCL2022
24Malcom Nunez STL3B1B18.05DSL2023
25Alek Thomas ARIOF-18.92AZL, PIO2022
26Connor Scott MIAOF-19.47GCL, A2022
27Shane McClanahan TBLHP-21.92GCL, APP2020
28Logan Gilbert SEARHP-21.90NWL2020
29Jackson Kowar KCRHP-22.48A2020
30Ethan Hankins CLERHP-18.85AZL2022
31Grayson Rodriguez BALRHP-19.37GCL2022
32Ryan Weathers SDLHP-19.39AZL, A2022
33Daniel Lynch KCLHP-22.36APP, A2020
34Orelvis Martinez TORSS-17.36N/A2023
35Parker Meadows DETOF-19.41GCL, NYP2022
36Brice Turang MILSS2B19.35AZL, PIO2022
37Jeremiah Jackson LAASS-19.01AZL, PIO2022
38Mason Denaburg WASRHP-19.64GCL2022
39Bo Naylor CLEC3B19.10AZL2022
40Noelvi Marte SEASS-17.45N/A2024
41Kyle Isbel KCOF-22.07PIO, A2021
42Nick Schnell TBOF-19.00GCL2022
43Greyson Jenista ATLOF-22.31APP, A, A+2021
44Richard Palacios CLE2B-21.87AZL, NYP, A2021
45Cole Roederer CHCOF-19.51AZL2022
46Josh Stowers NYYOF-22.09NWL2021
47Jake McCarthy ARIOF-21.66AZL, NWL2021
48Lenny Torres CLERHP-18.45AZL2022
49Mike Siani CINOF-19.70APP2022
50Simeon Woods-Richardson NYMRHP-18.50GCL, APP2022
51Kevin Alcantara NYYOF-16.71N/A2024
52Jeremy Eierman OAKSS-22.55NYP2021
53Misael Urbina MINOF-16.92N/A2024
54Steele Walker CHWOF-22.66AZL, PIO, A2021
55Luken Baker STL1B-22.05GCL, A2021
56Anthony Seigler NYYC-19.77GCL, APP2022
57Ryan Rolison COLLHP-21.71PIO2021
58Adam Kloffenstein TORRHP-18.59GCL2022
59Jonathan Ornelas TEX3BSS18.84AZL2022
60Alvin Guzman ARIOF-17.44N/A2024
61Jameson Hannah OAKOF-21.63NYP2021
62Gabriel Rodriguez CLESS-17.10N/A2024
63Blaze Alexander ARISS2B/3B19.80AZL, PIO2022
64Alexander Vargas NYYSS-17.41N/A2023
65Joe Gray MILOF-19.04AZL2022
66Josiah Gray LADRHP-21.27APP2022
67Brennen Davis CHCOF-19.41AZL2022
68Diego Cartaya LADC-17.56N/A2024
69Nick Decker BOSOF-19.49GCL2022
70Kody Clemens DET2B-22.87A, A+2021
71Osiris Johnson MIASS-18.44GCL, A2022
72Richard Gallardo CHCRHP-17.56N/A2024
73Osiel Rodriguez NYYRHP-17.35N/A2024
74Terrin Vavra COLSS2B21.88NWL2021
75Tristan Pompey MIAOF-22.01GCL, A, A+2021
76Tristan Beck ATLRHP-22.76GCL2021
77Griffin Conine TOROF-21.71GCL, NWL2021
78Owen White TEXRHP-19.64AZL2022
79Jarren Duran BOSOF2B22.56NYP, A2021
80Kris Bubic KCLHP-21.61PIO2021
81Brandon Howlett BOS3B-19.54GCL, NYP2021
82Nick Dunn STL2B-22.16NYP, A2021
83Tyler Frank TB2BSS/3B22.20NYP2021
84Nick Sandlin CLERHP-22.22AZL, A, A+, AA2019
85Jayson Schroeder HOURHP-19.37GCL2022
86Lyon Richardson CINRHP-19.19APP2022
87Juan Guerrero COLSS-17.55N/A2024
88Aaron Ashby MILLHP-20.84PIO, A2022
89Tanner Dodson TBRHPOF21.89NYP2021
90Brock Deatherage DETOF-23.54GCL, A, A+2020
91Blaine Knight BALRHP-22.75NYP2021
92Cal Raleigh SEAC-22.34NWL2021
93Durbin Feltman BOSRHP-21.94NYP, A, A+2020
94CJ Alexander ATL3B-22.70GCL, APP, A+2021
95Raynel Delgado CLESS2B/3B18.98AZL2022
96Ryan Jeffers MINC-21.82APP, A2021
97Starlyn Castillo PHIRHP-17.09N/A2024
98Jayce Easley TEX2BSS19.66AZL2022
99Ryder Green NYYOF-18.90GCL2022
100Nicholas Northcut BOS3B-19.79N/A2022
101Micah Bello MILOF-18.69AZL2022
102Griffin Roberts STLRHP-22.79GCL, A+2021
103Alejandro Pie TBSS-17.16N/A2023
104Sandy Gaston TBRHP-17.28N/A2024
105Francisco Alvarez NYMC-17.36N/A2024
106Niko Decolati COLOF-21.63PIO2021
107Carlos Cortes NYM2B-21.74NYP2021
108Michael Grove LADRHP-22.28N/A2022
109Freddy Valdez NYMOF-17.31N/A2024
110Josh Breaux NYYC-21.48GCL, NYP2021
111Eduardo Garcia MILSS-16.72N/A2024
112Cadyn Grenier BALSS-22.41A2021
113Grant Little SDOF-21.72NWL2021
114Gage Canning WASOF-21.93NYP, A2021
115Owen Miller SDSS3B22.37NWL, A2021
116Aaron Hernandez LAARHP-22.32N/A2021
117Will Banfield MIAC-19.36GCL, A2022
118DaShawn Keirsey MINOF-21.88APP2021
119Junior Sanquintin CLESS-17.22N/A2024
120Alexander Ramirez LAAOF-16.58N/A2024
121Lawrence Butler OAKOF-18.72AZL2022
122Sean Hjelle SFRHP-21.89NWL2021
123Jose Rodriguez TEXC-17.48N/A2023
124Alex McKenna HOUOF-21.56NYP, A2021
125Antonio Gomez NYYC-17.38N/A2024


Recommendation: Trade Down

This draft class does not possess a consensus top prospect. Further, fantasy minds across the industry differ as to the order of the top of the class. Naturally, and understandably, the value difference among the top five is nominal, and the next nine are also quite close. Arguably, the order of the top 15 prospects is a matter of personal preference. As such, I highly recommend owners with early picks to trade down.

Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly is a 30-year-old prospect, and a former member of the Tampa Bay Rays organization. The Diamondbacks recently signed him as an international free agent acquisition after he spent several years in the Korean Baseball Organization. Technically, Kelly is not a “first year” player. However, he is almost certainly available in most, if not all, leagues. On these rankings, he would slot at 92, after Blaine Knight.

Notable Unranked Loud Debuts

  • Cal Stevenson, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (.369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases and a 24-to-64 strikeout-to-walk ratio)
  • Zack Shannon, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (.354/.439/.677 with 14 home runs in Pioneer League)
  • Nathan Eaton, OF/2B/3B, Kansas City Royals (.354/.427/.581 with 5 home runs and 19 stolen bases in Pioneer League)
  • Keegan McGovern, OF, Seattle Mariners (.268/.351/.523 with 15 home runs in Low-A Midwest League)
  • David Fry, C/1B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers (.315/.406/.563 with 12 home runs in Pioneer League)
  • Gus Varland, RHP, Oakland Athletics (0.95/0.82 ERA/WHIP, 38 IP, 50/8 K/BB)
  • Adam Wolf, LHP, Detroit Tigers (2.19/1.14 ERA/WHIP, 37 IP, 32/12 K/BB)
  • Rodney Hutchison, RHP, New York Yankees (1.97/1.00 ERA/WHIP, 32 IP, 31/6 K/BB)
  • Ryan Feltner, RHP, Colorado Rockies (0.88/0.65 ERA/WHIP, 30 2/3 IP, 39/4 K/BB)
  • James McArthur, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (0.54/0.81 ERA/WHIP, 33 1/3 IP, 35/11 K/BB)

Upside-Only Top 25

The first year player draft rankings consider three, separate fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. Importantly, a fourth “tool” analyzed is risk, which considers a multitude of factors, including, but not limited to, fielding, level, opportunity, industry reputation, age, and injury history. What would the rankings look like focused solely on upside?

Top 25 Upside-Only FYPD Prospects

RankPlayerPOS.SEC. POS.Age2018 LevelETA
1Casey Mize DETRHP-21.91GCL, A+2020
2Nolan Gorman STL3B-18.88APP, A2021
3Jordyn Adams LAAOF-19.44AZL, PIO2022
4Jarred Kelenic SEAOF-19.70GCL, APP2021
5Xavier Edwards SDSS2B19.64AZL, NWL2022
6Matthew Liberatore TBLHP-19.39GCL, APP2022
7Cole Winn TEXRHP-19.34AZL2022
8Marco Luciano SFSS-17.55N/A2023
9Malcom Nunez STL3B1B18.05DSL2023
10Nick Madrigal CHW2B-22.04AZL, A, A+2020
11Trevor Larnach MINOF-22.09APP, A2020
12Travis Swaggerty PITOF-21.61NYP, A2020
13Julio Pablo Martinez TEXOF-23.02DSL, NWL2020
14Jonathan India CIN3BSS22.29APP, PIO, A2020
15Joey Bart SFC-22.29AZL, NWL2020
16Victor Victor Mesa MIAOF-22.69N/A2020
17Alec Bohm PHI3B-22.65GCL, NYP2020
18Triston Casas BOS3B1B19.20GCL2022
19Connor Scott MIAOF-19.47GCL, A2022
20Ethan Hankins CLERHP-18.85AZL2022
21Orelvis Martinez TORSS-17.36N/A2023
22Grayson Rodriguez BALRHP-19.37GCL2022
23Grant Lavigne COL1B-19.59PIO2022
24Noelvi Marte SEASS-17.45N/A2024
25Kevin Alcantara NYYOF-16.71N/A2024

On-Base Percentage Top 25

In addition, many dynasty leagues do not employ standard 5-by-5 scoring. Rather, many leagues substitute batting average with on-base percentage. The old adage, patience is a virtue, carries new weight in such leagues. Understandably, this shift in scoring has a dramatic impact on dynasty rankings; most notably, among hitters. For first year player draft prospects, it is often unclear how hitting approaches will develop over time. Further, statistical evidence gleaned from college, summer league, or high school performance can be wildly misleading. Consequently, these abbreviated rankings attempt to highlight perceived changes in value based on hitting approach.

Top 25 OBP FYPD Prospects

RankPlayerPOS.SEC. POS.Age2018 LevelETA
1Nolan Gorman STL3B-18.88APP, A2021
2Casey Mize DETRHP-21.91GCL, A+2020
3Jonathan India CIN3BSS22.29APP, PIO, A2020
4Jarred Kelenic SEAOF-19.70GCL, APP2021
5Yusei Kikuchi SEALHP-27.78NPB2019
6Xavier Edwards SDSS2B19.64AZL, NWL2022
7Trevor Larnach MINOF-22.09APP, A2020
8Alec Bohm PHI3B-22.65GCL, NYP2020
9Nick Madrigal CHW2B-22.04AZL, A, A+2020
10Joey Bart SFC-22.29AZL, NWL2020
11Victor Victor Mesa MIAOF-22.69N/A2020
12Travis Swaggerty PITOF-21.61NYP, A2020
13Julio Pablo Martinez TEXOF-23.02DSL, NWL2020
14Jordyn Adams LAAOF-19.44AZL, PIO2022
15Grant Lavigne COL1B-19.59PIO2022
16Matthew Liberatore TBLHP-19.39GCL, APP2022
17Seth Beer HOUOF1B22.53NYP, A, A+2020
18Nico Hoerner CHCSS-21.88AZL, NWL, A2020
19Cole Winn TEXRHP-19.34AZL2022
20Brady Singer KCRHP-22.65N/A2020
21Triston Casas BOS3B1B19.20GCL2022
22Jordan Groshans TORSS3B19.38GCL, APP2022
23Marco Luciano SFSS-17.55N/A2023
24Malcom Nunez STL3B1B18.05DSL2023
25Alek Thomas ARIOF-18.92AZL, PIO2022

Additionally, you can find more information about the most of the first year player draft prospects above in the articles below.

Jesse Roche's 2019 Prospect Series

11/5/18Top 600 Dynasty League Players, Fall Preview
11/12/182019 Top 40 Fantasy Catcher Prospects
11/19/182019 Top 30 Fantasy First Base Prospects
11/26/182019 Top 30 Fantasy Second Base Prospects
12/3/182019 Top 40 Fantasy Third Base Prospects
12/10/182019 Top 70 Fantasy Shortstop Prospects, Part 1
12/17/182019 Top 70 Fantasy Shortstop Prospects, Part 2
12/24/182019 Top 140 Fantasy Outfield Prospects, Part 1
12/31/182019 Top 140 Fantasy Outfield Prospects, Part 2
1/7/192019 Top 210 Fantasy Pitching Prospects, Part 1
1/16/192019 Top 210 Fantasy Pitching Prospects, Part 2
1/21/19Upon Further Review: Notable Grade Changes
1/28/192019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects
2/11/192019 Top 100 Upside-Only Fantasy Prospects
2/20/192019 First Year Player Draft Rankings
3/11/192019 Impact Prospects
3/18/192019 Breakout Prospects
4/1/19Prospects Breaking Camp
4/3/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, March 2019
4/4/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, March 2019
4/5/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, March 2019
4/22/19Scouting Report: Grayson Rodriguez
4/29/19Scouting Reports: Delmarva & Greensboro
5/2/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, April 2019
5/4/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, April 2019
5/8/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, April 2019
5/10/19Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, May 2019
5/27/192019 MLB Draft: Top Fantasy Prospects
6/3/192019 MLB Draft Live Observations
6/5/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, May 2019
6/6/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, May 2019
6/7/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, May 2019
6/10/19Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, June 2019
6/17/192019 Short Season Assignments: DSL, PIO, NWL & NYP
6/24/192019 Short Season Assignments: AZL, GCL & APP
7/1/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, June 2019
7/3/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, June 2019
7/5/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, June 2019
7/8/192019/2020 First Year Player Draft, Rounds 1-2
7/12/19Top 600 Dynasty League Players, July 2019
7/15/192019/2020 First Year Player Draft, Rounds 3-4
7/22/192019/2020 First Year Player Draft, Rounds 5-6
7/29/19Short Season Breakout Prospects
8/7/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, July 2019
8/8/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, July 2019
8/9/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, July 2019
8/12/19Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, August 2019
8/19/19Scouting Report: Seth Corry
9/11/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, August 2019
9/13/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, August 2019
10/4/19Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, September 2019

Please feel free to post comments, questions, or your own observations!

Follow me on Twitter @jaroche6

The Author

Jesse Roche

Jesse Roche

Jesse is an attorney, currently residing in Greensboro. An avid fantasy baseball player, Jesse has experience in a diverse range of leagues, including head-to-head, rotisserie, points, and simulation. Jesse is a five-time website-wide champion at Benchwarmer Baseball and a repeat champion of a dynasty league with John Sickels at Minor League Ball. With a specific interest in baseball prospects, Jesse plans to provide in-depth analysis of up-and-coming stars accessible to all league sizes and types.

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