2019 First Year Player Draft Rankings

As the calendar approaches March, many dynasty leagues are preparing for first year player drafts. While the recently released 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects includes the vast majority of first year player draft prospects, it may be difficult to separate such players from the pack. As such, these rankings specifically focus on this subset of prospects, diving even deeper than the Top 500! Further, two additional top 25 rankings based upon upside-only and on-base percentage follow the main rankings.
To see where the prospects below now fall in the overall rankings, you can obtain access to the updated (January) Top 600 Dynasty League Players with a small donation. Note, however, some prospect rankings have changed since I updated the Top 600.
2019 Top 125 First Year Player Draft Prospects
Rank | Player | POS. | SEC. POS. | Age | 2018 Level | ETA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Casey Mize DET | RHP | - | 21.91 | GCL, A+ | 2020 |
2 | Nolan Gorman STL | 3B | - | 18.88 | APP, A | 2021 |
3 | Nick Madrigal CHW | 2B | - | 22.04 | AZL, A, A+ | 2020 |
4 | Jarred Kelenic SEA | OF | - | 19.70 | GCL, APP | 2021 |
5 | Yusei Kikuchi SEA | LHP | - | 27.78 | NPB | 2019 |
6 | Jonathan India CIN | 3B | SS | 22.29 | APP, PIO, A | 2020 |
7 | Joey Bart SF | C | - | 22.29 | AZL, NWL | 2020 |
8 | Alec Bohm PHI | 3B | - | 22.65 | GCL, NYP | 2020 |
9 | Victor Victor Mesa MIA | OF | - | 22.69 | N/A | 2020 |
10 | Xavier Edwards SD | SS | 2B | 19.64 | AZL, NWL | 2022 |
11 | Trevor Larnach MIN | OF | - | 22.09 | APP, A | 2020 |
12 | Travis Swaggerty PIT | OF | - | 21.61 | NYP, A | 2020 |
13 | Julio Pablo Martinez TEX | OF | - | 23.02 | DSL, NWL | 2020 |
14 | Jordyn Adams LAA | OF | - | 19.44 | AZL, PIO | 2022 |
15 | Nico Hoerner CHC | SS | - | 21.88 | AZL, NWL, A | 2020 |
16 | Matthew Liberatore TB | LHP | - | 19.39 | GCL, APP | 2022 |
17 | Grant Lavigne COL | 1B | - | 19.59 | PIO | 2022 |
18 | Cole Winn TEX | RHP | - | 19.34 | AZL | 2022 |
19 | Brady Singer KC | RHP | - | 22.65 | N/A | 2020 |
20 | Seth Beer HOU | OF | 1B | 22.53 | NYP, A, A+ | 2020 |
21 | Jordan Groshans TOR | SS | 3B | 19.38 | GCL, APP | 2022 |
22 | Marco Luciano SF | SS | - | 17.55 | N/A | 2023 |
23 | Triston Casas BOS | 3B | 1B | 19.20 | GCL | 2022 |
24 | Malcom Nunez STL | 3B | 1B | 18.05 | DSL | 2023 |
25 | Alek Thomas ARI | OF | - | 18.92 | AZL, PIO | 2022 |
26 | Connor Scott MIA | OF | - | 19.47 | GCL, A | 2022 |
27 | Shane McClanahan TB | LHP | - | 21.92 | GCL, APP | 2020 |
28 | Logan Gilbert SEA | RHP | - | 21.90 | NWL | 2020 |
29 | Jackson Kowar KC | RHP | - | 22.48 | A | 2020 |
30 | Ethan Hankins CLE | RHP | - | 18.85 | AZL | 2022 |
31 | Grayson Rodriguez BAL | RHP | - | 19.37 | GCL | 2022 |
32 | Ryan Weathers SD | LHP | - | 19.39 | AZL, A | 2022 |
33 | Daniel Lynch KC | LHP | - | 22.36 | APP, A | 2020 |
34 | Orelvis Martinez TOR | SS | - | 17.36 | N/A | 2023 |
35 | Parker Meadows DET | OF | - | 19.41 | GCL, NYP | 2022 |
36 | Brice Turang MIL | SS | 2B | 19.35 | AZL, PIO | 2022 |
37 | Jeremiah Jackson LAA | SS | - | 19.01 | AZL, PIO | 2022 |
38 | Mason Denaburg WAS | RHP | - | 19.64 | GCL | 2022 |
39 | Bo Naylor CLE | C | 3B | 19.10 | AZL | 2022 |
40 | Noelvi Marte SEA | SS | - | 17.45 | N/A | 2024 |
41 | Kyle Isbel KC | OF | - | 22.07 | PIO, A | 2021 |
42 | Nick Schnell TB | OF | - | 19.00 | GCL | 2022 |
43 | Greyson Jenista ATL | OF | - | 22.31 | APP, A, A+ | 2021 |
44 | Richard Palacios CLE | 2B | - | 21.87 | AZL, NYP, A | 2021 |
45 | Cole Roederer CHC | OF | - | 19.51 | AZL | 2022 |
46 | Josh Stowers NYY | OF | - | 22.09 | NWL | 2021 |
47 | Jake McCarthy ARI | OF | - | 21.66 | AZL, NWL | 2021 |
48 | Lenny Torres CLE | RHP | - | 18.45 | AZL | 2022 |
49 | Mike Siani CIN | OF | - | 19.70 | APP | 2022 |
50 | Simeon Woods-Richardson NYM | RHP | - | 18.50 | GCL, APP | 2022 |
51 | Kevin Alcantara NYY | OF | - | 16.71 | N/A | 2024 |
52 | Jeremy Eierman OAK | SS | - | 22.55 | NYP | 2021 |
53 | Misael Urbina MIN | OF | - | 16.92 | N/A | 2024 |
54 | Steele Walker CHW | OF | - | 22.66 | AZL, PIO, A | 2021 |
55 | Luken Baker STL | 1B | - | 22.05 | GCL, A | 2021 |
56 | Anthony Seigler NYY | C | - | 19.77 | GCL, APP | 2022 |
57 | Ryan Rolison COL | LHP | - | 21.71 | PIO | 2021 |
58 | Adam Kloffenstein TOR | RHP | - | 18.59 | GCL | 2022 |
59 | Jonathan Ornelas TEX | 3B | SS | 18.84 | AZL | 2022 |
60 | Alvin Guzman ARI | OF | - | 17.44 | N/A | 2024 |
61 | Jameson Hannah OAK | OF | - | 21.63 | NYP | 2021 |
62 | Gabriel Rodriguez CLE | SS | - | 17.10 | N/A | 2024 |
63 | Blaze Alexander ARI | SS | 2B/3B | 19.80 | AZL, PIO | 2022 |
64 | Alexander Vargas NYY | SS | - | 17.41 | N/A | 2023 |
65 | Joe Gray MIL | OF | - | 19.04 | AZL | 2022 |
66 | Josiah Gray LAD | RHP | - | 21.27 | APP | 2022 |
67 | Brennen Davis CHC | OF | - | 19.41 | AZL | 2022 |
68 | Diego Cartaya LAD | C | - | 17.56 | N/A | 2024 |
69 | Nick Decker BOS | OF | - | 19.49 | GCL | 2022 |
70 | Kody Clemens DET | 2B | - | 22.87 | A, A+ | 2021 |
71 | Osiris Johnson MIA | SS | - | 18.44 | GCL, A | 2022 |
72 | Richard Gallardo CHC | RHP | - | 17.56 | N/A | 2024 |
73 | Osiel Rodriguez NYY | RHP | - | 17.35 | N/A | 2024 |
74 | Terrin Vavra COL | SS | 2B | 21.88 | NWL | 2021 |
75 | Tristan Pompey MIA | OF | - | 22.01 | GCL, A, A+ | 2021 |
76 | Tristan Beck ATL | RHP | - | 22.76 | GCL | 2021 |
77 | Griffin Conine TOR | OF | - | 21.71 | GCL, NWL | 2021 |
78 | Owen White TEX | RHP | - | 19.64 | AZL | 2022 |
79 | Jarren Duran BOS | OF | 2B | 22.56 | NYP, A | 2021 |
80 | Kris Bubic KC | LHP | - | 21.61 | PIO | 2021 |
81 | Brandon Howlett BOS | 3B | - | 19.54 | GCL, NYP | 2021 |
82 | Nick Dunn STL | 2B | - | 22.16 | NYP, A | 2021 |
83 | Tyler Frank TB | 2B | SS/3B | 22.20 | NYP | 2021 |
84 | Nick Sandlin CLE | RHP | - | 22.22 | AZL, A, A+, AA | 2019 |
85 | Jayson Schroeder HOU | RHP | - | 19.37 | GCL | 2022 |
86 | Lyon Richardson CIN | RHP | - | 19.19 | APP | 2022 |
87 | Juan Guerrero COL | SS | - | 17.55 | N/A | 2024 |
88 | Aaron Ashby MIL | LHP | - | 20.84 | PIO, A | 2022 |
89 | Tanner Dodson TB | RHP | OF | 21.89 | NYP | 2021 |
90 | Brock Deatherage DET | OF | - | 23.54 | GCL, A, A+ | 2020 |
91 | Blaine Knight BAL | RHP | - | 22.75 | NYP | 2021 |
92 | Cal Raleigh SEA | C | - | 22.34 | NWL | 2021 |
93 | Durbin Feltman BOS | RHP | - | 21.94 | NYP, A, A+ | 2020 |
94 | CJ Alexander ATL | 3B | - | 22.70 | GCL, APP, A+ | 2021 |
95 | Raynel Delgado CLE | SS | 2B/3B | 18.98 | AZL | 2022 |
96 | Ryan Jeffers MIN | C | - | 21.82 | APP, A | 2021 |
97 | Starlyn Castillo PHI | RHP | - | 17.09 | N/A | 2024 |
98 | Jayce Easley TEX | 2B | SS | 19.66 | AZL | 2022 |
99 | Ryder Green NYY | OF | - | 18.90 | GCL | 2022 |
100 | Nicholas Northcut BOS | 3B | - | 19.79 | N/A | 2022 |
101 | Micah Bello MIL | OF | - | 18.69 | AZL | 2022 |
102 | Griffin Roberts STL | RHP | - | 22.79 | GCL, A+ | 2021 |
103 | Alejandro Pie TB | SS | - | 17.16 | N/A | 2023 |
104 | Sandy Gaston TB | RHP | - | 17.28 | N/A | 2024 |
105 | Francisco Alvarez NYM | C | - | 17.36 | N/A | 2024 |
106 | Niko Decolati COL | OF | - | 21.63 | PIO | 2021 |
107 | Carlos Cortes NYM | 2B | - | 21.74 | NYP | 2021 |
108 | Michael Grove LAD | RHP | - | 22.28 | N/A | 2022 |
109 | Freddy Valdez NYM | OF | - | 17.31 | N/A | 2024 |
110 | Josh Breaux NYY | C | - | 21.48 | GCL, NYP | 2021 |
111 | Eduardo Garcia MIL | SS | - | 16.72 | N/A | 2024 |
112 | Cadyn Grenier BAL | SS | - | 22.41 | A | 2021 |
113 | Grant Little SD | OF | - | 21.72 | NWL | 2021 |
114 | Gage Canning WAS | OF | - | 21.93 | NYP, A | 2021 |
115 | Owen Miller SD | SS | 3B | 22.37 | NWL, A | 2021 |
116 | Aaron Hernandez LAA | RHP | - | 22.32 | N/A | 2021 |
117 | Will Banfield MIA | C | - | 19.36 | GCL, A | 2022 |
118 | DaShawn Keirsey MIN | OF | - | 21.88 | APP | 2021 |
119 | Junior Sanquintin CLE | SS | - | 17.22 | N/A | 2024 |
120 | Alexander Ramirez LAA | OF | - | 16.58 | N/A | 2024 |
121 | Lawrence Butler OAK | OF | - | 18.72 | AZL | 2022 |
122 | Sean Hjelle SF | RHP | - | 21.89 | NWL | 2021 |
123 | Jose Rodriguez TEX | C | - | 17.48 | N/A | 2023 |
124 | Alex McKenna HOU | OF | - | 21.56 | NYP, A | 2021 |
125 | Antonio Gomez NYY | C | - | 17.38 | N/A | 2024 |
Observations
Recommendation: Trade Down
This draft class does not possess a consensus top prospect. Further, fantasy minds across the industry differ as to the order of the top of the class. Naturally, and understandably, the value difference among the top five is nominal, and the next nine are also quite close. Arguably, the order of the top 15 prospects is a matter of personal preference. As such, I highly recommend owners with early picks to trade down.
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly is a 30-year-old prospect, and a former member of the Tampa Bay Rays organization. The Diamondbacks recently signed him as an international free agent acquisition after he spent several years in the Korean Baseball Organization. Technically, Kelly is not a “first year” player. However, he is almost certainly available in most, if not all, leagues. On these rankings, he would slot at 92, after Blaine Knight.
Notable Unranked Loud Debuts
- Cal Stevenson, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (.369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases and a 24-to-64 strikeout-to-walk ratio)
- Zack Shannon, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (.354/.439/.677 with 14 home runs in Pioneer League)
- Nathan Eaton, OF/2B/3B, Kansas City Royals (.354/.427/.581 with 5 home runs and 19 stolen bases in Pioneer League)
- Keegan McGovern, OF, Seattle Mariners (.268/.351/.523 with 15 home runs in Low-A Midwest League)
- David Fry, C/1B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers (.315/.406/.563 with 12 home runs in Pioneer League)
- Gus Varland, RHP, Oakland Athletics (0.95/0.82 ERA/WHIP, 38 IP, 50/8 K/BB)
- Adam Wolf, LHP, Detroit Tigers (2.19/1.14 ERA/WHIP, 37 IP, 32/12 K/BB)
- Rodney Hutchison, RHP, New York Yankees (1.97/1.00 ERA/WHIP, 32 IP, 31/6 K/BB)
- Ryan Feltner, RHP, Colorado Rockies (0.88/0.65 ERA/WHIP, 30 2/3 IP, 39/4 K/BB)
- James McArthur, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (0.54/0.81 ERA/WHIP, 33 1/3 IP, 35/11 K/BB)
Upside-Only Top 25
The first year player draft rankings consider three, separate fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. Importantly, a fourth “tool” analyzed is risk, which considers a multitude of factors, including, but not limited to, fielding, level, opportunity, industry reputation, age, and injury history. What would the rankings look like focused solely on upside?
Top 25 Upside-Only FYPD Prospects
Rank | Player | POS. | SEC. POS. | Age | 2018 Level | ETA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Casey Mize DET | RHP | - | 21.91 | GCL, A+ | 2020 |
2 | Nolan Gorman STL | 3B | - | 18.88 | APP, A | 2021 |
3 | Jordyn Adams LAA | OF | - | 19.44 | AZL, PIO | 2022 |
4 | Jarred Kelenic SEA | OF | - | 19.70 | GCL, APP | 2021 |
5 | Xavier Edwards SD | SS | 2B | 19.64 | AZL, NWL | 2022 |
6 | Matthew Liberatore TB | LHP | - | 19.39 | GCL, APP | 2022 |
7 | Cole Winn TEX | RHP | - | 19.34 | AZL | 2022 |
8 | Marco Luciano SF | SS | - | 17.55 | N/A | 2023 |
9 | Malcom Nunez STL | 3B | 1B | 18.05 | DSL | 2023 |
10 | Nick Madrigal CHW | 2B | - | 22.04 | AZL, A, A+ | 2020 |
11 | Trevor Larnach MIN | OF | - | 22.09 | APP, A | 2020 |
12 | Travis Swaggerty PIT | OF | - | 21.61 | NYP, A | 2020 |
13 | Julio Pablo Martinez TEX | OF | - | 23.02 | DSL, NWL | 2020 |
14 | Jonathan India CIN | 3B | SS | 22.29 | APP, PIO, A | 2020 |
15 | Joey Bart SF | C | - | 22.29 | AZL, NWL | 2020 |
16 | Victor Victor Mesa MIA | OF | - | 22.69 | N/A | 2020 |
17 | Alec Bohm PHI | 3B | - | 22.65 | GCL, NYP | 2020 |
18 | Triston Casas BOS | 3B | 1B | 19.20 | GCL | 2022 |
19 | Connor Scott MIA | OF | - | 19.47 | GCL, A | 2022 |
20 | Ethan Hankins CLE | RHP | - | 18.85 | AZL | 2022 |
21 | Orelvis Martinez TOR | SS | - | 17.36 | N/A | 2023 |
22 | Grayson Rodriguez BAL | RHP | - | 19.37 | GCL | 2022 |
23 | Grant Lavigne COL | 1B | - | 19.59 | PIO | 2022 |
24 | Noelvi Marte SEA | SS | - | 17.45 | N/A | 2024 |
25 | Kevin Alcantara NYY | OF | - | 16.71 | N/A | 2024 |
On-Base Percentage Top 25
In addition, many dynasty leagues do not employ standard 5-by-5 scoring. Rather, many leagues substitute batting average with on-base percentage. The old adage, patience is a virtue, carries new weight in such leagues. Understandably, this shift in scoring has a dramatic impact on dynasty rankings; most notably, among hitters. For first year player draft prospects, it is often unclear how hitting approaches will develop over time. Further, statistical evidence gleaned from college, summer league, or high school performance can be wildly misleading. Consequently, these abbreviated rankings attempt to highlight perceived changes in value based on hitting approach.
Top 25 OBP FYPD Prospects
Rank | Player | POS. | SEC. POS. | Age | 2018 Level | ETA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nolan Gorman STL | 3B | - | 18.88 | APP, A | 2021 |
2 | Casey Mize DET | RHP | - | 21.91 | GCL, A+ | 2020 |
3 | Jonathan India CIN | 3B | SS | 22.29 | APP, PIO, A | 2020 |
4 | Jarred Kelenic SEA | OF | - | 19.70 | GCL, APP | 2021 |
5 | Yusei Kikuchi SEA | LHP | - | 27.78 | NPB | 2019 |
6 | Xavier Edwards SD | SS | 2B | 19.64 | AZL, NWL | 2022 |
7 | Trevor Larnach MIN | OF | - | 22.09 | APP, A | 2020 |
8 | Alec Bohm PHI | 3B | - | 22.65 | GCL, NYP | 2020 |
9 | Nick Madrigal CHW | 2B | - | 22.04 | AZL, A, A+ | 2020 |
10 | Joey Bart SF | C | - | 22.29 | AZL, NWL | 2020 |
11 | Victor Victor Mesa MIA | OF | - | 22.69 | N/A | 2020 |
12 | Travis Swaggerty PIT | OF | - | 21.61 | NYP, A | 2020 |
13 | Julio Pablo Martinez TEX | OF | - | 23.02 | DSL, NWL | 2020 |
14 | Jordyn Adams LAA | OF | - | 19.44 | AZL, PIO | 2022 |
15 | Grant Lavigne COL | 1B | - | 19.59 | PIO | 2022 |
16 | Matthew Liberatore TB | LHP | - | 19.39 | GCL, APP | 2022 |
17 | Seth Beer HOU | OF | 1B | 22.53 | NYP, A, A+ | 2020 |
18 | Nico Hoerner CHC | SS | - | 21.88 | AZL, NWL, A | 2020 |
19 | Cole Winn TEX | RHP | - | 19.34 | AZL | 2022 |
20 | Brady Singer KC | RHP | - | 22.65 | N/A | 2020 |
21 | Triston Casas BOS | 3B | 1B | 19.20 | GCL | 2022 |
22 | Jordan Groshans TOR | SS | 3B | 19.38 | GCL, APP | 2022 |
23 | Marco Luciano SF | SS | - | 17.55 | N/A | 2023 |
24 | Malcom Nunez STL | 3B | 1B | 18.05 | DSL | 2023 |
25 | Alek Thomas ARI | OF | - | 18.92 | AZL, PIO | 2022 |
Additionally, you can find more information about the most of the first year player draft prospects above in the articles below.