2019 Dynasty Baseball RankingsDynasty BaseballDynasty Prospect Rankings

2019 Top 100 Upside-Only Fantasy Prospects

The Dynasty Guru recently released the 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects, representing the culmination of nearly three months of prospect positional rankings (links below). These rankings consider three, separate fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. Importantly, a fourth “tool” analyzed is risk, which considers a multitude of factors, including, but not limited to, fielding, level, opportunity, industry reputation, age, and injury history. What would the rankings look like focused solely on upside? With that said, don your rose-colored glasses as we explore the Top 100 upside-only fantasy prospects!

“Upside” is a vague and, occasionally, elusive term. As such, conceptualizing upside can be difficult. For the purpose of these rankings, upside does not mean a 99th percentile outcome. In a perfect world, all prospects develop to absolute peak. For example, diminutive Jose Ramirez blasting 39 home runs is a 99th percentile (or even higher) outcome. These outcomes are highly improbable and often impossible to predict. Thus, these rankings assess upside using future value grades, which represent a reasonable approximation of a player’s ceiling.

To see where the prospects below now fall in the overall rankings, you can obtain access to the updated (January) Top 600 Dynasty League Players with a small donation. Note, however, some prospect rankings have changed since I updated the Top 600.

A minimum donation of $10 grants you access to a downloadable spreadsheet of TDG’s 2019 Dynasty Baseball Rankings! Once your donation successfully processes, you will receive an email with a link to the rankings.

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2019 Top 100 Upside-Only Fantasy Prospects

RankPlayerPOS.SEC. POS.Age2018 LevelETA
1Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR3B-20.03GCL, A+, AA, AAA2019
2Wander Franco TBSS-18.08APP2021
3Eloy Jimenez CHWOF-22.34AA, AAA2019
4Fernando Tatis Jr. SDSS-20.24AA2019
5Victor Robles WASOF-21.86GCL, NYP, AAA, MLB-
6Hunter Greene CINRHP-19.64A2022
7Jo Adell LAAOF-19.97A, A+, AA2020
8Forrest Whitley HOURHP-21.54AA2019
9Kyle Tucker HOUOF-22.20AAA, MLB-
10Taylor Trammell CINOF-21.54A+2020
11Royce Lewis MINSS-19.81A, A+2020
12MacKenzie Gore SDLHP-20.09A2021
13Sixto Sanchez MIARHP-20.66A+2020
14Alex Kirilloff MINOF-21.39A, A+2020
15Brendan McKay TBLHP1B23.28GCL, A, A+2020
16Casey Mize DETRHP-21.91GCL, A+2020
17Peter Alonso NYM1B-24.31AA, AAA2019
18Alex Reyes STLRHP-24.58A, A+, AA, AAA, MLB-
19Michael Kopech CHWRHP-22.91AAA, MLB-
20Luis Robert CHWOF-21.65AZL, A, A+2020
21A.J. Puk OAKLHP-23.93N/A2019
22Nolan Gorman STL3B-18.88APP, A2021
23Nate Pearson TORRHP-22.61A+2020
24Kristian Robinson ARIOF-18.30AZL, PIO2022
25Jordyn Adams LAAOF-19.44AZL, PIO2022
26Jesus Luzardo OAKLHP-21.49A+, AA, AAA2019
27Dylan Cease CHWRHP-23.25A+, AA2019
28Bo Bichette TORSS2B21.06AA2019
29Nick Senzel CIN2B3B23.75AAA2019
30Keston Hiura MIL2B-22.66A+, AA2019
31Brendan Rodgers COLSS2B/3B22.64AA/AAA2019
32Yordan Alvarez HOUOF1B21.75AA, AAA2019
33Carter Kieboom WASSS-21.57A+, AA2020
34Brent Honeywell TBRHP-23.99N/A2019
35Drew Waters ATLOF-20.24A, A+2021
36Jarred Kelenic SEAOF-19.70GCL, APP2022
37Brusdar Graterol MINRHP-20.59A, A+2020
38Luis Patino SDRHP-19.42A2021
39Nathaniel Lowe TB1B-23.73A+, AA, AAA2019
40Ian Anderson ATLRHP-20.91A+, AA2020
41Xavier Edwards SDSS2B19.64AZL, NWL2022
42Chris Paddack SDRHP-23.22A+, AA2019
43Anderson Espinoza SDRHP-21.05N/A2021
44Antonio Cabello NYYOF-18.41DSL, GCL2023
45Matthew Liberatore TBLHP-19.39GCL, APP2022
46Cole Winn TEXRHP-19.34N/A2022
47George Valera CLEOF-18.38AZL2023
48Marco Luciano SFSS-17.55N/A2023
49Malcom Nunez STL3B1B18.05DSL2023
50Nick Madrigal CHW2B-22.04AZL, A, A+2020
51Josh James HOURHP-26.06AA, AAA, MLB-
52Seuly Matias KCOF-20.57A2021
53Austin Riley ATL3B-21.99GCL, AA, AAA2019
54Estevan Florial NYYOF-21.34GCL, A+2020
55Jazz Chisholm ARISS-21.16A, A+2020
56Heliot Ramos SFOF-19.56A2021
57Mike Soroka ATLRHP-21.65AAA, MLB-
58Mitch Keller PITRHP-22.98A+, AA, AAA2019
59Jesus Sanchez TBOF-21.475A+, AA2019
60Matt Manning DETRHP-21.17A, A+, AA2020
61Bubba Thompson TEXOF-20.80A2021
62Trevor Larnach MINOF-22.09APP, A2020
63Travis Swaggerty PITOF-21.61NYP, A2020
64Julio Pablo Martinez TEXOF-23.02DSL, NWL2020
65Jonathan Loaisiga NYYRHP-24.41A+, AA, MLB-
66Oneil Cruz PITSS-20.48A2021
67DL Hall BALLHP-20.53A2021
68Andres Gimenez NYMSS-20.57A+, AA2020
69Shane Baz TBRHP-19.78APP2022
70Esteury Ruiz SD2B3B20.12A2021
71Jonathan India CIN3BSS22.29APP, PIO, A2020
72Yusniel Diaz BALOF-22.48AA2019
73Joey Bart SFC-22.29AZL, NWL2021
74Victor Victor Mesa MIAOF-22.69N/A2020
75Garrett Hampson COL2BSS/OF24.47AA, AAA, MLB-
76Jon Duplantier ARIRHP-24.71AZL, AA2019
77Michel Baez SDRHP-23.19A+, AA2019
78Corbin Martin HOURHP-23.25A+, AA2019
79Vidal Brujan TB2B-21.14A, A+2020
80Alec Bohm PHI3B-22.65GCL, NYP2020
81Triston McKenzie CLERHP-21.66AA2019
82Luis Garcia WASSS3B/2B18.87A, A+2021
83Justin Dunn SEARHP-23.52A+, AA2019
84Gavin Lux LADSS2B21.35A+, AA2020
85Adrian Morejon SDLHP-20.09AZL, A+2020
86Jahmai Jones LAA2B-21.65A+, AA2020
87Daulton Varsho ARIC-22.74AZL, A+2020
88Dustin May LADRHP-21.56A+, AA2020
89Hans Crouse TEXRHP-20.54NWL, A2021
90Luis Oviedo CLERHP-19.87NYP, A2022
91Triston Casas BOS3B1B19.20GCL2022
92Connor Scott MIAOF-19.47GCL, A2022
93Spencer Howard PHIRHP-22.67A2020
94Franklin Perez DETRHP-21.31GCL, A+2020
95Ethan Hankins CLERHP-18.85AZL2022
96Luis Garcia PHISS-18.49GCL2023
97Ronny Mauricio NYMSS-17.98GCL, APP2022
98Julio Rodriguez SEAOF-18.25DSL2023
99Orelvis Martinez TORSS-17.36N/A2023
100Grayson Rodriguez BALRHP-19.37GCL2022

OBSERVATIONS

Interplay Between Fantasy Formats & Risk Assessment

Often, there is a limit on the number of prospects a team can roster in most fantasy formats. For instance, this limit can be a strict roster size cap (i.e., a team can only place 10 players in the minors) or a restriction on the number of keepers (i.e., a team can only keep 5 prospects or 40 total players). Nevertheless, many leagues restrict rostering and retention of prospects. Consequently, higher upside, extremely young prospects can be costly investments. In formats without restriction, or simply with expansive rosters, these high-upside, high-risk prospects are more valuable. Consequently, the risk and required lead-time of such prospects is not a significant detriment. Further, some owners simply choose to gamble on upside, thinking it is better to risk missing on a potential elite talent than hit on a solid performer.

RISING PROSPECTS

If we ignore risk, and focus only on upside, young players with loud tools made significant jumps in the rankings. Further, players saddled with injuries and who are likely to miss most-to-all of this season receive a boost.

PlayerUpside-OnlyTop 500Difference
Malcom Nunez STL49162113
Orelvis Martinez99200101
Marco Luciano SF4814799
Anderson Espinoza SD4314198
Julio Rodriguez SEA9819698
Ethan Hankins CLE9518590
Grayson Rodriguez BAL10018686
Antonio Cabello NYY4412581
George Valera CLE4712881
Cole Winn TEX4612175

In addition, several others vaulted toward the top of the rankings. Notably, Hunter Greene soared from outside the top 40 into the top 10, while Nate Pearson, Kristian Robinson, and Jordyn Adams move from outside the top 50 into the top 25.

FALLING PROSPECTS

Meanwhile, hitters with more muted tools and pitchers without premium repertoire or big arms fell in the rankings. Additionally, players on the cusp of the majors took a substantial hit. Indeed, several top 50 prospects completely fell out of the upside-only top 100, including Francisco Mejia, Alex Verdugo, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Urias, and Kyle Wright.

NOTABLE RISING PROSPECTS IN NEXT 100

Last year, this section included Kristian Robinson, George Valera, Esteury Ruiz, Luis Garcia, and Julio Rodriguez. This year, these exciting prospects should be strong follows, and a hot start (which, for some, will not occur until June) could elevate them up the rankings.

  • Catcher: Bo Naylor, Cleveland Indians
  • First Base: Grant Lavigne, Colorado Rockies
  • Second Base: Tucupita Marcano, San Diego Padres
  • Third Base: Mark Vientos, New York Mets; Sherten Apostel, Texas Rangers; Jake Burger, Chicago White Sox; Danny Diaz, Boston Red Sox
  • Shortstop: Noelvi Marte, Seattle Mariners; Wander Javier, Minnesota Twins; Freudis Nova, Houston Astros; Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Indians; Jeremiah Jackson, Los Angeles Angels; Antoni Flores, Boston Red Sox; Aaron Bracho, Cleveland Indians; Miguel Hiraldo, Toronto Blue Jays; Gabriel Rodriguez, Cleveland Indians; Alexander Vargas, New York Yankees; Juan Guerrero, Colorado Rockies
  • Outfield: Kevin Alcantara, New York Yankees; Misael Urbina, Minnesota Twins; D’Shawn Knowles, Los Angeles Angels; Parker Meadows, Detroit Tigers; Jhon Torres, St. Louis Cardinals; Alexander Canario, San Francisco Giants; Nick Schnell, Tampa Bay Rays; Cole Roederer, Chicago Cubs; Everson Pereira, New York Yankees; Mike Siani, Cincinnati Reds; Garrett Whitley, Tampa Bay Rays
  • Pitcher: Deivi Garcia, New York Yankees; Zack Burdi, Chicago Cubs; Eric Pardinho, Toronto Blue Jays; Ryan Weathers, San Diego Padres; Mason Denaburg, Washington Nationals; James Kaprielian, Oakland Athletics; Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees; Jay Groome, Boston Red Sox; Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins; Lenny Torres, Cleveland Indians; Jordan Holloway, Miami Marlins; Simeon Woods-Richardson, New York Mets; Adam Kloffenstein, Toronto Blue Jays; Richard Gallardo, Chicago Cubs; Osiel Rodriguez, New York Yankees; Chris Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels; Sam Carlson, Seattle Mariners

Further, you can find more information about the most of the prospects above in the articles below.

Jesse Roche's 2019 Prospect Series

DateArticle
11/5/18Top 600 Dynasty League Players, Fall Preview
11/12/182019 Top 40 Fantasy Catcher Prospects
11/19/182019 Top 30 Fantasy First Base Prospects
11/26/182019 Top 30 Fantasy Second Base Prospects
12/3/182019 Top 40 Fantasy Third Base Prospects
12/10/182019 Top 70 Fantasy Shortstop Prospects, Part 1
12/17/182019 Top 70 Fantasy Shortstop Prospects, Part 2
12/24/182019 Top 140 Fantasy Outfield Prospects, Part 1
12/31/182019 Top 140 Fantasy Outfield Prospects, Part 2
1/7/192019 Top 210 Fantasy Pitching Prospects, Part 1
1/16/192019 Top 210 Fantasy Pitching Prospects, Part 2
1/21/19Upon Further Review: Notable Grade Changes
1/28/192019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects
2/11/192019 Top 100 Upside-Only Fantasy Prospects
2/20/192019 First Year Player Draft Rankings
3/11/192019 Impact Prospects
3/18/192019 Breakout Prospects
4/1/19Prospects Breaking Camp
4/3/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, March 2019
4/4/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, March 2019
4/5/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, March 2019
4/22/19Scouting Report: Grayson Rodriguez
4/29/19Scouting Reports: Delmarva & Greensboro
5/2/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, April 2019
5/4/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, April 2019
5/8/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, April 2019
5/10/19Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, May 2019
5/27/192019 MLB Draft: Top Fantasy Prospects
6/3/192019 MLB Draft Live Observations
6/5/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, May 2019
6/6/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, May 2019
6/7/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, May 2019
6/10/19Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, June 2019
6/17/192019 Short Season Assignments: DSL, PIO, NWL & NYP
6/24/192019 Short Season Assignments: AZL, GCL & APP
7/1/19Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, June 2019
7/3/19Monthly Prospect Update: Outfielders, June 2019
7/5/19Monthly Prospect Update: Pitchers, June 2019
7/8/192019/2020 FYP Expert Mock Draft
7/12/19Top 600 Dynasty League Players, July 2019

Please feel free to post comments, questions, or your own observations!

Follow me on Twitter @jaroche6

The Author

Jesse Roche

Jesse Roche

Jesse is an attorney, currently residing in Greensboro. An avid fantasy baseball player, Jesse has experience in a diverse range of leagues, including head-to-head, rotisserie, points, and simulation. Jesse is a four-time website-wide champion at Benchwarmer Baseball and a repeat champion of a dynasty league with John Sickels at Minor League Ball. With a specific interest in baseball prospects, Jesse plans to provide in-depth analysis of up-and-coming stars accessible to all league sizes and types.

6 Comments

  1. Chris
    February 11, 2019 at 12:07 pm

    I am very perplexed by the ranking of Mize. The general consensus seems to be that he does not have “ace” upside, but rather, a FV in the 55-60 range (FanGraphs just said that he is in the lower end of the 55 FV tier). I thought he was more of a high floor, moderate ceiling prospect? What do you see that leads to your conclusion that he has more upside than Reyes and Kopech? Thanks!

    • February 11, 2019 at 12:46 pm

      I am probably higher on Mize than most and believe he has “ace” upside. I saw him pitch several times for Auburn. While his raw stuff does not compare with Kopech or Reyes, Mize still projects to have plus repertoire, with a 55/60-grade mid-90s fastball; a 60/65-grade upper-80s, diving split-finger change-up; and a 55/60-grade mid-80s slider with 11-to-5 slurve movement, which he occasionally throws in the upper-80s for cutter-like movement. In addition, and the big separator between him and Kopech/Reyes, is future plus command and control. If you view his arsenal or command/control as a half grade less, then he would fall down the rankings in the area of Yordan Alvarez and Carter Kieboom.

  2. Austin Harrison
    February 20, 2019 at 12:22 pm

    Love the “Notable Next 100”, thanks for going the extra mile for us relatively deep leaguers! I’m pumped to see some of those names like Vientos, Apostel, Javier, Knowles blow up this year. Side note, I live in GSO as well, who are some names I should be on the lookout for now that the Grasshoppers are Pittsburgh affiliate?

    • February 20, 2019 at 12:45 pm

      Thanks! As for GSO, it is a bummer to see the Marlins leave at a time they have several exciting young talents likely to start in Low-A, including Connor Scott, Jordan Holloway (maybe), Osiris Johnson, and Will Banfield, maybe even Victor Victor Mesa for a spell. The top Pirates prospects who may be assigned to the Grasshoppers include Travis Swaggerty, Tahnaj Thomas, Braxton Ashcraft, Steven Jennings, Ji-Hwan Bae, and Conner Uselton. Thomas, Ashcraft, and Jennings are exciting young arms. I expect Jennings to be assigned to Low-A, with Thomas and Ashcraft possibly starting in short season. Bae was found guilty of domestic assault in South Korea in October so he could have similar issues to Kang in obtaining a visa this spring, and may receive a suspension. Uselton was a disaster in the Appalachian League last year, but he turns 21 in May so I except he will start in Low-A. Swaggerty only played 16 games in Low-A in his debut so there is a chance he starts in Greensboro, though I would not expect he will be in Low-A for long.

      • Austin Harrison
        February 20, 2019 at 1:05 pm

        nice thanks brother. hope you’re right about Swaggerty, I’d like to see him a couple times before he moves up. lets hit up a Thursday game, first Buckshot is on me

        • February 20, 2019 at 3:14 pm

          Sounds good. You can reach out to me via Twitter @jaroche6. I have my first child due on March 10th so it may be awhile before I can make it to a game.

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