The Dynasty Guru recently released the 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects, representing the culmination of nearly three months of prospect positional rankings (links below). These rankings consider three, separate fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. Importantly, a fourth “tool” analyzed is risk, which considers a multitude of factors, including, but not limited to, fielding, level, opportunity, industry reputation, age, and injury history. What would the rankings look like focused solely on upside? With that said, don your rose-colored glasses as we explore the Top 100 upside-only fantasy prospects!

“Upside” is a vague and, occasionally, elusive term. As such, conceptualizing upside can be difficult. For the purpose of these rankings, upside does not mean a 99th percentile outcome. In a perfect world, all prospects develop to absolute peak. For example, diminutive Jose Ramirez blasting 39 home runs is a 99th percentile (or even higher) outcome. These outcomes are highly improbable and often impossible to predict. Thus, these rankings assess upside using future value grades, which represent a reasonable approximation of a player’s ceiling.

To see where the prospects below now fall in the overall rankings, you can obtain access to the updated (January) Top 600 Dynasty League Players with a small donation. Note, however, some prospect rankings have changed since I updated the Top 600.

2019 Top 100 Upside-Only Fantasy Prospects

OBSERVATIONS

Interplay Between Fantasy Formats & Risk Assessment

Often, there is a limit on the number of prospects a team can roster in most fantasy formats. For instance, this limit can be a strict roster size cap (i.e., a team can only place 10 players in the minors) or a restriction on the number of keepers (i.e., a team can only keep 5 prospects or 40 total players). Nevertheless, many leagues restrict rostering and retention of prospects. Consequently, higher upside, extremely young prospects can be costly investments. In formats without restriction, or simply with expansive rosters, these high-upside, high-risk prospects are more valuable. Consequently, the risk and required lead-time of such prospects is not a significant detriment. Further, some owners simply choose to gamble on upside, thinking it is better to risk missing on a potential elite talent than hit on a solid performer.

RISING PROSPECTS

If we ignore risk, and focus only on upside, young players with loud tools made significant jumps in the rankings. Further, players saddled with injuries and who are likely to miss most-to-all of this season receive a boost.

In addition, several others vaulted toward the top of the rankings. Notably, Hunter Greene soared from outside the top 40 into the top 10, while Nate Pearson, Kristian Robinson, and Jordyn Adams move from outside the top 50 into the top 25.

FALLING PROSPECTS

Meanwhile, hitters with more muted tools and pitchers without premium repertoire or big arms fell in the rankings. Additionally, players on the cusp of the majors took a substantial hit. Indeed, several top 50 prospects completely fell out of the upside-only top 100, including Francisco Mejia, Alex Verdugo, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Urias, and Kyle Wright.

NOTABLE RISING PROSPECTS IN NEXT 100

Last year, this section included Kristian Robinson, George Valera, Esteury Ruiz, Luis Garcia, and Julio Rodriguez. This year, these exciting prospects should be strong follows, and a hot start (which, for some, will not occur until June) could elevate them up the rankings.

• Catcher: Bo Naylor, Cleveland Indians
• First Base: Grant Lavigne, Colorado Rockies
• Second Base: Tucupita Marcano, San Diego Padres
• Third Base: Mark Vientos, New York Mets; Sherten Apostel, Texas Rangers; Jake Burger, Chicago White Sox; Danny Diaz, Boston Red Sox
• Shortstop: Noelvi Marte, Seattle Mariners; Wander Javier, Minnesota Twins; Freudis Nova, Houston Astros; Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Indians; Jeremiah Jackson, Los Angeles Angels; Antoni Flores, Boston Red Sox; Aaron Bracho, Cleveland Indians; Miguel Hiraldo, Toronto Blue Jays; Gabriel Rodriguez, Cleveland Indians; Alexander Vargas, New York Yankees; Juan Guerrero, Colorado Rockies
• Outfield: Kevin Alcantara, New York Yankees; Misael Urbina, Minnesota Twins; D’Shawn Knowles, Los Angeles Angels; Parker Meadows, Detroit Tigers; Jhon Torres, St. Louis Cardinals; Alexander Canario, San Francisco Giants; Nick Schnell, Tampa Bay Rays; Cole Roederer, Chicago Cubs; Everson Pereira, New York Yankees; Mike Siani, Cincinnati Reds; Garrett Whitley, Tampa Bay Rays
• Pitcher: Deivi Garcia, New York Yankees; Zack Burdi, Chicago Cubs; Eric Pardinho, Toronto Blue Jays; Ryan Weathers, San Diego Padres; Mason Denaburg, Washington Nationals; James Kaprielian, Oakland Athletics; Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees; Jay Groome, Boston Red Sox; Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins; Lenny Torres, Cleveland Indians; Jordan Holloway, Miami Marlins; Simeon Woods-Richardson, New York Mets; Adam Kloffenstein, Toronto Blue Jays; Richard Gallardo, Chicago Cubs; Osiel Rodriguez, New York Yankees; Chris Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels; Sam Carlson, Seattle Mariners

Further, you can find more information about the most of the prospects above in the articles below.

Jesse Roche's 2019 Prospect Series

Please feel free to post comments, questions, or your own observations!

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