22 Comments

1. 

   Tom B.

   July 20, 2018 at 12:04 pm

   I’m looking to get contend this year (in second place currently). I need one more SP to give me the nod in pitching categories in the playoffs. Would you trade Robles and Eloy Jimenez for Syndergaard and Soroka?

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     Jesse Roche

     July 20, 2018 at 12:10 pm

     It depends on league size/scoring, but I prefer Syndergaard/Soroka to Jimenez/Robles. I will note, however, I am quite high on Syndergaard relative to many. I know Bret Sayre is very high on Robles and likely would advise against such a deal. Maybe try just one of Robles/Jimenez straight up for Syndergaard to start. Or package one of them with a different prospect/player for Syndergaard.

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       Tom B.

       July 20, 2018 at 2:24 pm

       Thanks a ton for the advice, Jesse. I’ll see if I can eek a bit better of a deal on my side. I like the idea of adding in another player on the side of Robles/Jimenez to make it a 2-for-1. Thanks for doing all this work to get a midseason dynasty rankings!

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2. Friday, July 20, 2018 - Fantasy Baseball Links - FantasyRundown.com

   July 20, 2018 at 12:12 pm

   […] TheDynastyGuru.com updates their rankings of the top 500 overall players for dynasty/keeper leagues. […]

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3. 

   Charlie Hansen

   July 23, 2018 at 2:42 pm

   does hampson move up at all with the call up?

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     Jesse Roche

     July 23, 2018 at 3:34 pm

     No, not yet. A call-up alone does not impact dynasty value. I want to see (1) staying power and (2) performance. In this case, the promotion may be temporary, as it is unclear how long D.J. LeMahieu will be sidelined with a left oblique strain. In the meantime, Hampson should be owned in nearly all formats, including redraft.

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       Charlie Hansen

       July 23, 2018 at 3:39 pm

       Thanks Jesse. Well done on your first dynasty 500. I look forward to the March 2019 edition

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4. 

   Craig

   July 23, 2018 at 3:40 pm

   Ranking Blake Snell and others. Obviously Mike Trout is the number 1 dynasty asset, but I am curious about the volatility of the rest of the list. I was looking through the July 2017 and March 2018 lists to get a feel for how rapidly guys like Acuna and Soto can move up a list based on observed talent. And I noticed Blake Snell was ranked around 270 in July 2017 (actually dropping 50ish spots from the previous ranking)….March 2018 had him low 100s…and as of July 2018 is a top 50 asset. Obviously, the 2018 performance is driving such an aggressive ranking right now, but absent a 4 start period in 2017 where his ERA was north of 6.00, his performance seems to have been relatively stable with a 3.50 ERA or better. Do you recall why his ranking has been so volatile over the past year? And I have to assume a back half 2018 performance of a 4.00 ERA pushes him back down around 100 again? Assuming this is correct, it seems 2-3 month swings in performance, good or bad, can cause quite a bit of volatility in rankings.

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     Jesse Roche

     July 23, 2018 at 4:28 pm

     As for Blake Snell, who just landed on the disabled list with shoulder fatigue * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cphNpqKpKc4 *, his control showed legitimate improvement beginning in the second half last year.

     Prior to the season, I actually submitted this write-up on Snell for TDG: The former top prospect is on the verge of a breakout. After walking 88 batters over his first 145 major league innings (5.46 BB/9!), Blake Snell reduced his walk rate to 2.7 BB/9 over his last 73 1/3 innings. During this period, Snell posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts. This improvement is not random and arguably linked, in part, to a change in positioning on the rubber. Add improved command and control to Snell’s elite repertoire, including four plus pitches and a fastball averaging 94.3 mph, and you have a potential top 30 (or better) fantasy starting pitcher.

     Note, other “breakouts” for me were Teoscar Hernandez (yay!) and Greg Bird (boo!).

     Now, his control has improved this year, though not quite as good as his second half performance (9.9 BB%). It is still not ideal; hence, he is not ranked higher. What really changed for Snell this year is the development of his slider. It has turned into one of the most dominant pitches in baseball, limiting opponents to a palty .093 BAA and .200 SLG. Snell is one of the few pitchers with arguably 4 plus pitches.

     Finally, yes, 2-3 months of significant changes in performance can cause quite a bit of volatility in rankings. See Muncy, Max and Aguilar, Jesus, among many others.

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5. 

   Tom Trudeau

   July 23, 2018 at 4:35 pm

   Hey Jesse! Big fan… long time ranker here with a question for my / the communities benefit. We both take some… flack… we’ll call it, for ranking prospects aggressively.

   We both know how valuable prospects are in keep forever leagues. That’s to say nothing of their *trade* value (I’d be lucky to turn my Mike Moustakas into some of the prospects ranked in the 300’s in my industry leagues). Why do you think it is that we continue to get this criticism?

   I only play in industry leagues and I would be laughed at if I offered my Jordyn Adams (390’s) for Carlos Gonzalez (390’s). The same is true for countless prospects ranked near veterans. (That’s not a criticism… just stating a fact for context!) Is it because formats are different (fewer keepers, fewer prospects owned) such that prospects are devalued? Is it that people are trained to reflexively think Proven Veteran >>> Unproven Hotness (no matter how many times Josh Donaldson’s and Miggy Cabrera’s remind us of the risk of veterans).

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     Jesse Roche

     July 23, 2018 at 5:19 pm

     Personally, I think some in the industry actually overvalue elite prospects a little. However, in my experience, such players often are untouchable. A Vlad Jr. owner in TDGx2 rejected a trade of Kris Bryant plus other pieces. Of course, elite prospects do often turn into elite fantasy players.

     Meanwhile, older assets are often undervalued in dynasty leagues. Once a player turns 30 years old, most dynasty owners, absent a small handful, no longer have any interest in such a player. Actually, I have made a living off trading prospects for these older assets. The risk is obvious, however. Once decline sets in, you are stuck, and value plummets quickly. Remember, dynasty is about today, but, for most, it is about tomorrow.

     In addition, the value of prospects varies league to league. In limited keeper leagues, prospects have much less value. In leagues where you can add prospects off free agency willy nilly, they have much less value imo. For those in leagues with unlimited minors and the only way to add prospects is through a prospect draft, they have tons of value. Ultimately, I advise any fantasy/dynasty owner to use these rankings responsibly, within the context of your own league.

     As for Tom’s main point, the reason most owners in a dynasty league will easily trade a proven veteran for a similarly ranked prospect is driven, in part, by trade value. A prospect is a desirable asset for every team in a dynasty league. A proven vet may only interest the top 4 teams. Further, prospects arguably carry less risk than aging veterans. A bad season for a prospect is often just a “bump in the road” and long-term value does not suffer as much as it probably should. On the other hand, a bad season for a vet (i.e., Josh Donaldson) can operate to crater his value as his time is running short. If owners sniff a hint of decline, they run away screaming.

     I could endlessly discuss the value of prospects versus veterans, and may develop this debate into a future article at some point.

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     • 

       Craig

       July 23, 2018 at 6:08 pm

       Hi Jesse and Tom
       To be clear…I actually wasn’t trying to give flack and apologize if I wrote it that way. The intent was purely instructional for me. And, grading the response, I would say…awesome. Like I said above, I am trying to get a feel for how fast folks can move up and down lists…with the idea of assessing trade value, as well as trying to find buying opportunities….and i agree with your point, trading can be tough based on the perception of value.

       The only reason I specifically honed on Snell was my surprise that he was a 300ish player a year ago even though he was some version of a known quantity. Based on the response above, do you think Robbie Ray and Sean Newcomb have a chance to be ranked as high as Snell right now? And vice versa, if Snell’s walk rate returns to previous levels, he drops back to Ray/Newcomb levels? This kind of sets a trading floor and ceiling for all mentioned.

       one thought on the response…I never doubted you know your stuff, but knowing a pitcher changed the position on the rubber to affect performance outcomes…nice. i will never look to play in league with you!

       Thanks again

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       • 

         Jesse Roche

         July 24, 2018 at 10:00 am

         I do not think Tom’s comment was directed at your question. When Tom published his updated top 500 for OBP leagues, he received a lot of push-back from readers for his aggressive rankings of prospects. In addition, some questioned my own rankings of prospects on other sites, like Reddit. Ultimately, I feel extremely confident in my rankings of prospects, given my experience in dynasty leagues and my daily focus on all things prospect.

         Addressing your additional question, I do think Robbie Ray and Sean Newcomb could move up the rankings with improved command and control. Neither are Blake Snell, though. Ray is better than Newcomb. Ray has slightly better command/control and slightly better stuff, with three pitches that flash plus. This year, all three regressed. I think his upside is capped around 9% walk rate, which is borderline average. For me, his pre-2018 ranking is likely his ceiling. Meanwhile, Newcomb has three solid pitches, 60 FB, 55 CB, 50 CH, but consistent 40/45 command/control. The development of his change-up and its increased usage have driven his strong start. I do think he is a low-4s, high-3s ERA type with 1.3-1.4 WHIP. As for Snell, I doubt he falls too much, unless we see a decline in effectiveness. His repertoire is deep and electric.

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6. 

   ppkl918

   July 31, 2018 at 3:51 pm

   Where does Tyler Glasnow rank? I think he has potential to make a bit of a comeback to a starter role in Tampa.

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     Jesse Roche

     July 31, 2018 at 4:18 pm

     Tyler Glasnow ranks outside the top 500. He has little to no command and control and his 97 mph fastball plays as only average to slightly above since he cannot command it. As such, he is terribly inefficient, only throwing 56% strikes. Indeed, he is in the bottom five in first strikes (52.3%) and, to make matters worse, he is second to last in swings outside the zone (23.2%).

     However, Glasnow can spin a devastating curveball and his stuff can be filthy. Without improved command, control, and efficiency, a role change will not impact his value much. Now, he is just a bad starting pitcher.

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       Jesse Roche

       August 13, 2018 at 11:19 am

       Obviously, Glasnow is transitioning well back into a starting role with the Rays. However, I will note he faced some lackluster opponents (LAA, BAL, TOR). I do remain concerned about his command, flat fastball, and ability to remain effective over 5-6 innings. With that said, Glasnow is certainly a top 500 player at this point based on upside alone. Notably, I just traded him in a 16-team dynasty league (note, 10×10 categories) for a 2019 Round 1 prospect pick.

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7. 

   roolhaas

   August 10, 2018 at 9:34 am

   hi jesse. appreciated reading about snell – as an owner I have been hoping he moves into the Nola/Berrios hype tier, and that seems like it has legs. however I have an offer to move him for goldy who is hard to value in our league which is the typical once you hit 30, out to pasture, mindset. what do you think? OPS league btw. thx

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     Jesse Roche

     August 10, 2018 at 9:44 am

     I would pull the trigger despite the age concerns, especially if you are currently competitive. Pitchers carry tons of risk and Snell recently had a bout of shoulder fatigue, which raises some yellow flags. I think Goldy has plenty left in the tank, though he likely is on the decline.

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8. 

   Jackson

   August 11, 2018 at 6:27 pm

   Gotta take a flyer on Hyun-Jin Ryu. Injury history yeah but there’s something there.

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     Jesse Roche

     August 13, 2018 at 11:13 am

     Ryu definitely could fit anywhere in the last 50. Same with Glasnow above. In fact, if I were to update the Top 500, both likely would easily slot within, especially Glasnow.

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9. 

   TRE

   August 13, 2018 at 11:50 am

   I see Yuli, but no Lourdes? Is he still out of the 500 today?

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     Jesse Roche

     August 13, 2018 at 12:01 pm

     Yes. However, Lourdes Gurriel is on the edge. Obviously, his performance thus far is extremely loud and impressive (.322/.340/.503) with 46.5% hard hits. His upside is something along the lines of .270, 20-25 home runs. Ultimately, I have little to no faith in Gurriel as anything more than a streaky utility infielder. My present peak projection for him is .250-.260, 15-20 home runs. A simple and convenient comp for Gurriel is teammate Aledmys Diaz.

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