2018 Risk-Free Top 100 Fantasy Prospects
Recently, The Dynasty Guru released the 2018 Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, representing the culmination of over 40 days of prospect positional rankings. In closing, the final thoughts briefly touched upon two vital considerations (flexibility and risk) when ranking fantasy prospects. Last week, we explored where owners actually select prospects in dynasty drafts, emphasizing ranking flexibility. Today, we delve into the wildcard fantasy tool: risk.
The rankings measure three fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. An important fourth factor analyzed is risk. What would the rankings look like if we removed risk entirely from our analysis? Read on to find out.
Risk-Free Top 100 Prospects
| Rank | Player | Position | Age | 2017 Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR | 3B | 19.04 | A/A+ |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani LAA | SP/DH | 23.73 | JAP |
| 3 | Ronald Acuna ATL | OF | 20.28 | A+/AA/AAA |
| 4 | Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | SS | 19.24 | A/AA |
| 5 | Eloy Jimenez CHW | OF | 21.34 | A+/AA |
| 6 | Luis Robert CHW | OF | 20.66 | R |
| 7 | Hunter Greene CIN | SP | 18.65 | R |
| 8 | Jo Adell LAA | OF | 18.98 | R |
| 9 | MacKenzie Gore SD | SP | 19.10 | R |
| 10 | Sixto Sanchez PHI | SP | 19.67 | A |
| 11 | Victor Robles WAS | OF | 20.86 | A+/AA/MLB |
| 12 | Michael Kopech CHW | SP | 21.91 | AA/AAA |
| 13 | Alex Reyes STL | SP | 23.58 | N/A |
| 14 | Walker Buehler LAD | SP | 23.67 | A+/AA/AAA/MLB |
| 15 | Estevan Florial NYY | OF | 20.34 | A/A+ |
| 16 | Heliot Ramos SF | OF | 18.56 | R |
| 17 | Forrest Whitley HOU | SP | 20.54 | A/A+/AA |
| 18 | Brendan Rodgers COL | SS | 21.64 | A+/AA |
| 19 | Bo Bichette TOR | SS | 20.07 | A/A+ |
| 20 | Kyle Tucker HOU | OF | 21.20 | A+/AA |
| 21 | Royce Lewis MIN | SS | 18.82 | R/A |
| 22 | Taylor Trammell CIN | OF | 20.54 | A |
| 23 | Kyle Wright ATL | SP | 22.49 | R/A+ |
| 24 | Nick Senzel CIN | 3B | 22.75 | A+/AA |
| 25 | Austin Beck OAK | OF | 19.36 | R |
| 26 | Juan Soto WAS | OF | 19.43 | A |
| 27 | Anderson Espinoza SD | SP | 20.06 | A+ |
| 28 | Alec Hansen CHW | SP | 23.47 | A/A+/AA |
| 29 | Lazaro Armenteros OAK | OF | 18.85 | R |
| 30 | Brent Honeywell TB | SP | 23.00 | AA/AAA |
| 31 | Kevin Maitan LAA | SS | 18.13 | R |
| 32 | Michel Baez SD | SP | 22.19 | R/A |
| 33 | Jesus Sanchez TB | OF | 20.48 | A |
| 34 | Wander Franco TB | SS | 17.08 | N/A |
| 35 | Mitch Keller PIT | SP | 21.99 | A+/AA |
| 36 | A.J. Puk OAK | SP | 22.93 | A+/AA |
| 37 | Monte Harrison MIA | OF | 22.64 | A/A+ |
| 38 | Jorge Mateo OAK | SS | 22.77 | A+/AA |
| 39 | Jhailyn Ortiz PHI | OF | 19.36 | A- |
| 40 | Jose Siri CIN | OF | 22.69 | A |
| 41 | Lewis Brinson MIA | OF | 23.89 | AAA/MLB |
| 42 | Willie Calhoun TEX | OF | 23.40 | AAA/MLB |
| 43 | Gleyber Torres NYY | SS | 21.29 | AA/AAA |
| 44 | Keston Hiura MIL | 2B | 21.67 | R/A |
| 45 | Riley Pint COL | SP | 20.40 | A |
| 46 | Yadier Alvarez LAD | SP | 22.06 | A+/AA |
| 47 | Albert Abreu NYY | SP | 22.51 | R/A/A+ |
| 48 | Shane Baz PIT | SP | 18.78 | R |
| 49 | J.B. Bukauskas HOU | SP | 21.47 | R/A- |
| 50 | Austin Hays BAL | OF | 22.73 | A+/AA/MLB |
| 51 | Luiz Gohara ATL | SP | 21.66 | A+/AA/AAA/MLB |
| 52 | Scott Kingery PHI | 2B | 23.92 | AA/AAA |
| 53 | Matt Manning DET | SP | 20.17 | A-/A |
| 54 | Jorge Guzman MIA | SP | 22.17 | A- |
| 55 | Brandon Marsh LAA | OF | 20.28 | R |
| 56 | Kyle Lewis SEA | OF | 22.71 | R/A+ |
| 57 | Jason Groome BOS | SP | 19.60 | A-/A |
| 58 | Franklin Perez DET | SP | 20.31 | A+/AA |
| 59 | Justus Sheffield NYY | SP | 21.88 | AA |
| 60 | Ian Anderson ATL | SP | 19.91 | A |
| 61 | Brent Rooker MIN | OF | 23.41 | R/A+ |
| 62 | Jon Duplantier ARI | SP | 23.72 | A/A+ |
| 63 | James Kaprielian OAK* | SP | 24.08 | N/A |
| 64 | Alex Faedo DET | SP | 22.38 | N/A |
| 65 | Cal Quantrill SD | SP | 23.14 | A+/AA |
| 66 | Fernando Romero MIN | SP | 23.26 | AA |
| 67 | Triston McKenzie CLE | SP | 20.66 | A+ |
| 68 | Wander Javier MIN | SS | 19.25 | R |
| 69 | Leody Taveras TEX | OF | 19.56 | A |
| 70 | Jahmai Jones LAA | OF | 20.65 | A/A+ |
| 71 | Adrian Morejon SD | SP | 19.09 | A-/A |
| 72 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | OF | 20.76 | A/A+ |
| 73 | Carter Kieboom WAS | SS | 20.57 | R/A-/A |
| 74 | Jesus Luzardo OAK | SP | 20.50 | R/A- |
| 75 | Austin Meadows PIT | OF | 22.91 | AAA |
| 76 | Corbin Burnes MIL | SP | 23.44 | A+/AA |
| 77 | Braxton Garrett MIA | SP | 20.65 | A |
| 78 | Anthony Alford TOR | OF | 23.69 | AA/AAA/MLB |
| 79 | Ryan Vilade COL | SS | 19.11 | R |
| 80 | Kolby Allard ATL | SP | 20.63 | AA |
| 81 | Jack Flaherty STL | SP | 22.46 | AA/AAA/MLB |
| 82 | Brendan McKay TB | 1B/SP | 22.28 | A- |
| 83 | Mike Soroka ATL | SP | 20.65 | AA |
| 84 | Zack Burdi CHW | RP | 23.06 | AAA |
| 85 | Jeren Kendall LAD | OF | 22.15 | R/A |
| 86 | Austin Riley ATL | 3B | 20.99 | A+/AA |
| 87 | Nate Pearson TOR | SP | 21.61 | R/A- |
| 88 | Tyler O'Neill STL | OF | 22.77 | AAA |
| 89 | Corey Ray MIL | OF | 23.52 | A+ |
| 90 | Dylan Cease CHW | SP | 22.25 | A |
| 91 | Zack Collins CHW | C | 23.15 | A+/AA |
| 92 | Michael Chavis BOS | 3B | 22.63 | A+/AA |
| 93 | Bobby Bradley CLE | 1B | 21.83 | AA |
| 94 | Max Fried SP ATL | SP | 24.20 | AA/MLB |
| 95 | Chance Adams NYY | SP | 23.64 | AA/AAA |
| 96 | Chris Shaw SF | OF | 23.93 | AA/AAA |
| 97 | Christin Stewart DET | OF | 24.30 | AA |
| 98 | Sandy Alcantara MIA | SP | 22.56 | AA/MLB |
| 99 | Mitchell White LAD | SP | 23.25 | A+/AA |
| 100 | Seuly Matias KC | OF | 19.57 | R |
| 101 | Freudis Nova HOU | SS | 18.21 | R |
*Note, James Kaprielian at 63 is a late additions due to accidental omission.
Observations
Rising Prospects
If we ignore risk, and focus only on upside, young players with loud tools made significant jumps in the rankings. Further, players saddled with injuries and who are likely to miss most-to-all of this season receive a boost.
| Player | Position | Risk-Free | Top 200 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Beck OAK | OF | 25 | 111 | +86 |
| Anderson Espinoza SD | SP | 27 | 103 | +76 |
| Lazaro Armenteros OAK | OF | 29 | 135 | +106 |
| Kevin Maitan LAA | SS | 31 | 106 | +75 |
| Wander Franco TB | SS | 34 | 148 | +114 |
| Jhailyn Ortiz PHI | OF | 39 | 125 | +86 |
| Riley Pint COL | SP | 45 | 128 | +83 |
| James Kaprielian OAK | SP | 63 | 158 | +95 |
| Braxton Garrett MIA | SP | 77 | 163 | +86 |
| Ryan Vilade COL | SS | 79 | 157 | +78 |
In addition to these nine players, several others vaulted toward the top of the rankings. Luis Robert, Hunter Greene, Jo Adell, and MacKenzie Gore soared from outside the top 20 into the top 10, while Estevan Florial and Heliot Ramos moved into the top 20. Previously unranked in the top 200, Zack Burdi, Seuly Matias, and Freudis Nova all appear in the risk-free top 100.
Finally, Julio Pablo Martinez would rank between Nick Senzel and Austin Beck. This list excludes Martinez since he was not in consideration for the top 200 (unsigned).
Falling Prospects
Meanwhile, hitters with more muted tools and pitchers without premium repertoire or big arms fell in the rankings. Players on the cusp of the majors also took a substantial hit.
| Player | Position | Risk-Free | Top 200 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gleyber Torres NYY | SS | 43 | 6 | -37 |
| Austin Hays BAL | OF | 50 | 17 | -33 |
| Scott Kingery PHI | 2B | 52 | 16 | -36 |
| Triston McKenzie CLE | SS | 67 | 36 | -31 |
| Austin Meadows PIT | OF | 75 | 42 | -33 |
| Anthony Alford TOR | OF | 78 | 45 | -33 |
| Jack Flaherty STL | SP | 81 | 49 | -32 |
| Mike Soroka ATL | SP | 83 | 43 | -40 |
Furthermore, numerous prospects previously ranked in the top 50 just missed the risk-free top 100, including Francisco Mejia (21), Willy Adames (24), Ryan McMahon (29), Alex Verdugo (35), Franklin Barreto (37), and J.P. Crawford (41).
Notable Rising Prospects in Next 100
Excluded from the original top 200 and just on the edge of this top 100, these exciting young players have impressive tools and should be watched closely this year:
- Second Base: Esteury Ruiz, Yunior Severino, and Luis Garcia
- Shortstop: Yasel Antuna, Mark Vientos, Jose Israel Garcia, and Jeter Downs
- Third Base: Jake Burger (injury) and Jacob Gonzalez
- Outfield: Julio Rodriguez, George Valera, Kristian Robinson, Everson Pereira, Jeisson Rosario, and Cole Brannen
- Pitcher: Sam Carlson, Oscar De La Cruz, D.L. Hall, Trevor Rogers, Luis Medina, and Eric Pardinho
The Author
7 Comments
[…] Fantasy Baseball Rankings: TheDynastyGuru.com ranks the top 100 prospects, without taking risk into […]
Florial at 15 in a low-risk ranking? Huh? Espinoza and Maitan seems like odd choices for a low-risk list as well, given their health and conditioning concerns, respectively. In a low-risk list, I would expect to see players like Hays near the top – those with skills versus tools would have to be prioritized, no? Often your lists are quite interesting and I can follow your rationale – this one confounds me.
The ranking is “risk-free,” which means the ranking does not consider risk. Therefore, high risk players, like those you identified, will rank higher.
Aha! I misunderstood the purpose – my bad! Thanks for clarifying.
No problem. Thank you for pointing out your confusion! Apparently, you were not alone as several of our writers were also confused. Some small edits have been made to hopefully make the article more clear. Thanks for reading!
While the title “risk-free” gives a mental double-take (I figured it was meant ironically), love this article. I’m in a “weird league” where pure upside is even more important because of our rules, and this kind of context is really valuable. Thanks!
love this list, thanks!