2018 Dynasty Baseball RankingsDigging for DiamondsDynasty Prospect Rankings

2018 Risk-Free Top 100 Fantasy Prospects

Recently, The Dynasty Guru released the 2018 Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, representing the culmination of over 40 days of prospect positional rankings. In closing, the final thoughts briefly touched upon two vital considerations (flexibility and risk) when ranking fantasy prospects. Last week, we explored where owners actually select prospects in dynasty drafts, emphasizing ranking flexibility. Today, we delve into the wildcard fantasy tool: risk.

The rankings measure three fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. An important fourth factor analyzed is risk. What would the rankings look like if we removed risk entirely from our analysis? Read on to find out.

Risk-Free Top 100 Prospects

RankPlayerPositionAge2017 Level
1Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR3B19.04A/A+
2Shohei Ohtani LAASP/DH23.73JAP
3Ronald Acuna ATLOF20.28A+/AA/AAA
4Fernando Tatis Jr. SDSS19.24A/AA
5Eloy Jimenez CHWOF21.34A+/AA
6Luis Robert CHWOF20.66R
7Hunter Greene CINSP18.65R
8Jo Adell LAAOF18.98R
9MacKenzie Gore SDSP19.10R
10Sixto Sanchez PHISP19.67A
11Victor Robles WASOF20.86A+/AA/MLB
12Michael Kopech CHWSP21.91AA/AAA
13Alex Reyes STLSP23.58N/A
14Walker Buehler LADSP23.67A+/AA/AAA/MLB
15Estevan Florial NYYOF20.34A/A+
16Heliot Ramos SFOF18.56R
17Forrest Whitley HOUSP20.54A/A+/AA
18Brendan Rodgers COLSS21.64A+/AA
19Bo Bichette TORSS20.07A/A+
20Kyle Tucker HOUOF21.20A+/AA
21Royce Lewis MINSS18.82R/A
22Taylor Trammell CINOF20.54A
23Kyle Wright ATLSP22.49R/A+
24Nick Senzel CIN3B22.75A+/AA
25Austin Beck OAKOF19.36R
26Juan Soto WASOF19.43A
27Anderson Espinoza SDSP20.06A+
28Alec Hansen CHWSP23.47A/A+/AA
29Lazaro Armenteros OAKOF18.85R
30Brent Honeywell TBSP23.00AA/AAA
31Kevin Maitan LAASS18.13R
32Michel Baez SDSP22.19R/A
33Jesus Sanchez TBOF20.48A
34Wander Franco TBSS17.08N/A
35Mitch Keller PITSP21.99A+/AA
36A.J. Puk OAKSP22.93A+/AA
37Monte Harrison MIAOF22.64A/A+
38Jorge Mateo OAKSS22.77A+/AA
39Jhailyn Ortiz PHIOF19.36A-
40Jose Siri CINOF22.69A
41Lewis Brinson MIAOF23.89AAA/MLB
42Willie Calhoun TEXOF23.40AAA/MLB
43Gleyber Torres NYYSS21.29AA/AAA
44Keston Hiura MIL2B21.67R/A
45Riley Pint COLSP20.40A
46Yadier Alvarez LADSP22.06A+/AA
47Albert Abreu NYYSP22.51R/A/A+
48Shane Baz PITSP18.78R
49J.B. Bukauskas HOUSP21.47R/A-
50Austin Hays BALOF22.73A+/AA/MLB
51Luiz Gohara ATLSP21.66A+/AA/AAA/MLB
52Scott Kingery PHI2B23.92AA/AAA
53Matt Manning DETSP20.17A-/A
54Jorge Guzman MIASP22.17A-
55Brandon Marsh LAAOF20.28R
56Kyle Lewis SEAOF22.71R/A+
57Jason Groome BOSSP19.60A-/A
58Franklin Perez DETSP20.31A+/AA
59Justus Sheffield NYYSP21.88AA
60Ian Anderson ATLSP19.91A
61Brent Rooker MINOF23.41R/A+
62Jon Duplantier ARISP23.72A/A+
63James Kaprielian OAK*SP24.08N/A
64Alex Faedo DETSP22.38N/A
65Cal Quantrill SDSP23.14A+/AA
66Fernando Romero MINSP23.26AA
67Triston McKenzie CLESP20.66A+
68Wander Javier MINSS19.25R
69Leody Taveras TEXOF19.56A
70Jahmai Jones LAAOF20.65A/A+
71Adrian Morejon SDSP19.09A-/A
72Yordan Alvarez HOUOF20.76A/A+
73Carter Kieboom WASSS20.57R/A-/A
74Jesus Luzardo OAKSP20.50R/A-
75Austin Meadows PITOF22.91AAA
76Corbin Burnes MILSP23.44A+/AA
77Braxton Garrett MIASP20.65A
78Anthony Alford TOROF23.69AA/AAA/MLB
79Ryan Vilade COLSS19.11R
80Kolby Allard ATLSP20.63AA
81Jack Flaherty STLSP22.46AA/AAA/MLB
82Brendan McKay TB1B/SP22.28A-
83Mike Soroka ATLSP20.65AA
84Zack Burdi CHWRP23.06AAA
85Jeren Kendall LADOF22.15R/A
86Austin Riley ATL3B20.99A+/AA
87Nate Pearson TORSP21.61R/A-
88Tyler O'Neill STLOF22.77AAA
89Corey Ray MILOF23.52A+
90Dylan Cease CHWSP22.25A
91Zack Collins CHWC23.15A+/AA
92Michael Chavis BOS3B22.63A+/AA
93Bobby Bradley CLE1B21.83AA
94Max Fried SP ATLSP24.20AA/MLB
95Chance Adams NYYSP23.64AA/AAA
96Chris Shaw SFOF23.93AA/AAA
97Christin Stewart DETOF24.30AA
98Sandy Alcantara MIASP22.56AA/MLB
99Mitchell White LADSP23.25A+/AA
100Seuly Matias KCOF19.57R
101Freudis Nova HOUSS18.21R

*Note, James Kaprielian at 63 is a late additions due to accidental omission.

Observations

Rising Prospects

If we ignore risk, and focus only on upside, young players with loud tools made significant jumps in the rankings. Further, players saddled with injuries and who are likely to miss most-to-all of this season receive a boost.

PlayerPositionRisk-FreeTop 200Difference
Austin Beck OAKOF25111+86
Anderson Espinoza SDSP27103+76
Lazaro Armenteros OAKOF29135+106
Kevin Maitan LAASS31106+75
Wander Franco TBSS34148+114
Jhailyn Ortiz PHIOF39125+86
Riley Pint COLSP45128+83
James Kaprielian OAKSP63158+95
Braxton Garrett MIASP77163+86
Ryan Vilade COLSS79157+78

In addition to these nine players, several others vaulted toward the top of the rankings. Luis Robert, Hunter Greene, Jo Adell, and MacKenzie Gore soared from outside the top 20 into the top 10, while Estevan Florial and Heliot Ramos moved into the top 20.  Previously unranked in the top 200, Zack Burdi, Seuly Matias, and Freudis Nova all appear in the risk-free top 100.

Finally, Julio Pablo Martinez would rank between Nick Senzel and Austin Beck. This list excludes Martinez since he was not in consideration for the top 200 (unsigned).

Falling Prospects

Meanwhile, hitters with more muted tools and pitchers without premium repertoire or big arms fell in the rankings. Players on the cusp of the majors also took a substantial hit.

PlayerPositionRisk-FreeTop 200Difference
Gleyber Torres NYYSS436-37
Austin Hays BALOF5017-33
Scott Kingery PHI2B5216-36
Triston McKenzie CLESS6736-31
Austin Meadows PITOF7542-33
Anthony Alford TOROF7845-33
Jack Flaherty STLSP8149-32
Mike Soroka ATLSP8343-40

Furthermore, numerous prospects previously ranked in the top 50 just missed the risk-free top 100, including Francisco Mejia (21), Willy Adames (24), Ryan McMahon (29), Alex Verdugo (35), Franklin Barreto (37), and J.P. Crawford (41).

Notable Rising Prospects in Next 100

Excluded from the original top 200 and just on the edge of this top 100, these exciting young players have impressive tools and should be watched closely this year:

  • Second Base: Esteury Ruiz, Yunior Severino, and Luis Garcia
  • Shortstop: Yasel Antuna, Mark Vientos, Jose Israel Garcia, and Jeter Downs
  • Third Base: Jake Burger (injury) and Jacob Gonzalez
  • Outfield: Julio Rodriguez, George Valera, Kristian Robinson, Everson Pereira, Jeisson Rosario, and Cole Brannen
  • Pitcher: Sam Carlson, Oscar De La Cruz, D.L. Hall, Trevor Rogers, Luis Medina, and Eric Pardinho

 

The Author

Jesse Roche

Jesse Roche

Jesse is an attorney, currently residing in Greensboro. An avid fantasy baseball player, Jesse has experience in a diverse range of leagues, including head-to-head, rotisserie, points, and simulation. Jesse is a five-time website-wide champion at Benchwarmer Baseball and a repeat champion of a dynasty league with John Sickels at Minor League Ball. With a specific interest in baseball prospects, Jesse plans to provide in-depth analysis of up-and-coming stars accessible to all league sizes and types.

7 Comments

  1. […] Fantasy Baseball Rankings: TheDynastyGuru.com ranks the top 100 prospects, without taking risk into […]

  2. Beiber
    March 20, 2018 at 5:32 pm

    Florial at 15 in a low-risk ranking? Huh? Espinoza and Maitan seems like odd choices for a low-risk list as well, given their health and conditioning concerns, respectively. In a low-risk list, I would expect to see players like Hays near the top – those with skills versus tools would have to be prioritized, no? Often your lists are quite interesting and I can follow your rationale – this one confounds me.

    • March 20, 2018 at 5:35 pm

      The ranking is “risk-free,” which means the ranking does not consider risk. Therefore, high risk players, like those you identified, will rank higher.

  3. Beiber
    March 20, 2018 at 6:08 pm

    Aha! I misunderstood the purpose – my bad! Thanks for clarifying.

    • March 20, 2018 at 6:59 pm

      No problem. Thank you for pointing out your confusion! Apparently, you were not alone as several of our writers were also confused. Some small edits have been made to hopefully make the article more clear. Thanks for reading!

  4. tylerassaultedme
    March 22, 2018 at 6:53 am

    While the title “risk-free” gives a mental double-take (I figured it was meant ironically), love this article. I’m in a “weird league” where pure upside is even more important because of our rules, and this kind of context is really valuable. Thanks!

  5. jimmy
    March 22, 2018 at 1:48 pm

    love this list, thanks!

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