Recently, The Dynasty Guru released the Top 500 Dynasty League Players for OBP Leagues, the Top 500 Dynasty League Players, and the 2018 Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, representing the culmination of over 40 days of positional rankings.

Rankings are useful guides in practice, but drafts often complicate them. This article will analyze a crucial question for dynasty league owners: where do owners actually draft prospects?

This article will explore the results of two 40-round dynasty startup drafts, focusing exclusively on prospects. In each draft, owners selected both major league players and prospects. TDGx2 is a 20-team, 5-by-5, head-to-head, weekly league, with a 15-player minor league roster.* Meanwhile, SMCM is a 16-team, 6-by-6, head-to-head, daily league, with an unlimited minor league roster.** The results below detail the top 100 prospects drafted in both leagues.

Dynasty Startup Draft Top 100 Prospects

Dynasty Startup Thoughts

Elite Prospects, Elite Value

The elite prospects all went extremely early in both drafts. Ronald Acuna and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were first and second round picks, respectively. In dynasty leagues, owners universally overrate elite prospects. While such players occasionally develop into top fantasy players, already treating them as elite fantasy players and finished products is excessively optimistic.

Proximity is King

Prospects projected to make an impact this year received a substantial value boost. The following prospects will likely begin the year in the major leagues:

Each of these eight players received a considerable boost when compared to the top 200. I am responsible, in part, for the bump of Jesse Winker, drafting him in SMCM (Jesses must stick together!). Most importantly, the A.J. Minter hype machine is very real.

Part of the reason proximity gains more value in startup drafts is due to the scarcity of viable major league talent. In ongoing dynasty leagues, owners value proximity less and prospects more than in startup drafts, likely due to established rosters. Michael Wacha, for example, is someone who would get drafted over a top prospect in a startup draft, and traded for a top prospect in an ongoing dynasty league.

Catcher? I Hardly Know Her!

Owners overvalue catchers. Overall, six catchers went off the board in the top 100. Like Jorge Alfaro and Chance Sisco, above, Francisco Mejia (+11), Keibert Ruiz (+39), Zack Collins (+25), and Danny Jansen (+31) moved way up draft boards. Indeed, an owner in TDGx2 even selected Alex Jackson as the 40th prospect and 215th overall. The love for catchers is baffling. Catchers carry limited value in one-catcher leagues and only a rare few provide legitimate upside.

Wildcard, Bitches! Yeehaw!

Charlie Tilson is an extreme outlier. Entirely absent from the outfield rankings, he is a poor fantasy investment. Tilson has absolutely no power and a recent history of significant leg injuries. Whether the elite speed still exists is questionable and, without the speed, he is useless. Further, the White Sox already optioned Tilson to Triple-A. Without immediate impact and very little upside, he should be a free agent outside the deepest of leagues.

Jesse’s Draftees

Who did I draft, you ask? In TDGx2, I selected Austin Hays, Mitch Keller, Justus Sheffield, and Jose Siri. In SMCM, I drafted Forrest Whitley, Jesse Winker, Willy Adames, Taylor Trammell, Triston McKenzie, Monte Harrison, Jahmai Jones, and Zack Collins.

*TDGx2 involves twenty TDG writers with on-base percentage and saves plus holds. Further, the league has a 25-player major league roster and drafted 310 prospects.

**SMCM involves four TDG writers with on-base percentage, slugging percentage, innings-pitched, and saves plus holds. In addition, the league has a 30-player major league roster and drafted 196 prospects.