2018 Top 36 Fantasy Third Base Prospects
The Dynasty Guru recently released the annual, consensus rankings of the top 50 fantasy third basemen in dynasty leagues (#1-20 and #21-50), detailing several third base prospects. The following rankings focus upon, and dive deeper into, fantasy third base prospects.
Strong arms and big power predominate at third base. Lacking enough range for shortstop, third base prospects linger on the edge of the defensive spectrum. One false step and a third base prospect moves to first base or a corner outfield position.
Nonetheless, third base prospects are often extremely valuable fantasy contributors. Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado are perennial first round picks. An 18-year-old son of a Hall of Famer and a former second overall pick lead the next group of potential third base superstars.
Before delving into the rankings, here is a brief explanation of fantasy tool grades:
A Guide to Fantasy Tools
Publicly-available scouting reports and past production make up a player’s “grades” for each of his skills. Those grades help anticipate a player’s ceiling, which, in turn, helps assess value. For fantasy purposes, only a few grades matter.
Average Hit Tool: The fantasy hit tool is a mixture of contact (batting average) and plate discipline (walk percentage/on-base percentage, or OBP). In a 16-team dynasty league, the average batting average and on-base percentage is approximately .265 and .335, respectively. A well-disciplined player’s fantasy hit tool plays up a grade higher than otherwise expected. A change to a hit tool grade increases or decreases those averages by approximately .015 (i.e., an above-average hitter produces a batting average and on-base percentage of approximately .280 and .350, respectively).
Average Power Tool: The fantasy power tool weighs realized or in-game power against potential or raw power. In a 16-team dynasty league, the league-average isolated power is approximately .175, which translates to approximately 20 home runs per season. A change to a power tool grade increases or decreases by approximately .025 for isolated power.
Speed Bonus: The speed bonus only applies to players anticipated to accumulated stolen bases. Each incremental bonus accounts for approximately 10 stolen bases. For example, a player with a speed bonus of 5 likely will accumulate approximately 10-15 stolen bases.
Risk: Risk considers a multitude of factors, including, but not limited to, fielding, level, opportunity, industry reputation, age, and injury history. In fantasy, fielding is only relevant to the extent it facilitates or hinders opportunity and eligibility.
Without further ado, the 2018 Top Fantasy Third Base Prospects:
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Professional baseball is in Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.’s blood. His namesake, and father, was the 2004 American League Most Valuable Player, a nine-time All-Star, and, now, a Hall of Famer. Vlad Jr.’s uncle, Wilton Guerrero, played for the Montreal Expos. His cousins, Gabby Guerrero and Gregory Guerrero, are fellow prospects. Rumor has it Vlad Jr. is also pretty good.
Signed by the Blue Jays for $3.9 million in 2015, Guerrero exceeded expectations. He was the best hitter in High-A Florida State League last year as an 18-year-old, slashing .333/.450/.494 with more walks than strikeouts. In fact, on the season, Guerrero walked (14.4%) more than he struck out (11.8%). On top of his Joey Votto-like plate discipline, Guerrero is a line drive hitter who oozes raw power and exceptional bat speed. Guerrero’s impressive performance even led both Baseball America and MLB.com to assign an unheard-of 80-grade to his hit tool.
While Guerrero’s bat is special, he is quite pull-heavy with almost strictly pull-side game power. Further, there are concerns he will become large and immobile as he ages, prompting a move to first base. But for now, Guerrero is serviceable at third base with a strong arm but below-average range.
Turning 19 years old in March, Guerrero likely will begin the season in Double-A and could conceivably debut in the majors later this year. Regardless of his body and pull tendencies, Guerrero is an elite, top-five fantasy prospect.
Peak Projection: .300/.390/.530, 30-35 home runs
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Less than two years after the Reds drafted Nick Senzel second overall in the 2016 Amateur Draft, he is on the cusp of the majors. With a polished bat and advanced approach, Senzel dominated when he progressed to Double-A last year to the tune of .340/.413/.560.
Senzel is a gap-to-gap, all-fields hitter with an approached geared to churn out line drives and doubles. In Double-A, Senzel began turning those doubles into home runs as his HR/FB ratio jumped to 19.2%. Indeed, he tallied nearly as many home runs in 57 Double-A games (10) than he previously hit in 130 games (11).
In addition to his lethal bat, Senzel exercises respectable plate discipline (career 10.9% walk rate), and although there is some swing-and-miss in his game (19.2 K%), it is manageable. Additionally, Senzel is not afraid to run once he gets on base, with 32 career stolen bases.
Senzel shows a lot of promise on the field with a plus arm, good range, and improved hands and footwork. Whether Senzel will break through as a third baseman, however, is uncertain. Eugenio Suarez just produced a 4.1 WAR season last year and is only 26-years-old. As such, Senzel may gain defensive versatility at second base or in the outfield to accelerate his climb to the majors. Since Senzel is not on the 40-man roster, he likely will spend most of the season in Triple-A.
Peak Projection: .295/.365/.470, 20-25 home runs, 10-15 stolen bases
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Back before Shohei Ohtani made two-way players en vogue, Austin Riley had to choose between hitting and pitching, and he chose hitting. Many teams thought he chose poorly, but the Braves did not and selected Riley 41st overall in 2015 Amateur Draft. It appears Riley and the Braves chose wisely.
Playing all season at just 20 years old, Riley advanced to Double-A, despite yet another slow start. Of course, Riley had another explosive second half- across Double-A and the Arizona Fall League (from August to November), Riley hit .344/.408/.644 with 12 home runs in 206 plate appearances.
Riley is 6’3”, 220 pounds and has enormous raw power. Like Guerrero, most of Riley’s game power is currently pull-side, but he hits mammoth blasts. With the power comes the strikeouts, even during his epic end-of-year run (25.7% K%). Although still suffering a lot of swing-and-miss, Riley did make some strides by increasing his walk rate in Double-A (9.9%) and decreasing strikeouts on the season (22.9%).
Once thought of as a butcher at third base (committing 46 errors in his first 173 games), Riley made significant progress last year. Now, observers believe Riley has the hands and footwork for the position to go along with the arm. Already limited athletically, however, Riley may nevertheless move to first base or a corner outfield spot if his range deteriorates further.
Peak Projection: .260/.325/.490, 30-35 home runs
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A 2014 first-rounder out of high school, Michael Chavis has always had massive raw power. For the first time last year, he truly tapped into it in games. Chavis returned to the Carolina League and easily paced the league, outhitting Austin Hays, Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Tucker, and Victor Robles. After demolishing High-A (.318/.388/.641 with 17 home runs), Chavis continued hitting for huge power in Double-A Eastern League, with 14 more home runs.
In addition to the power, Chavis makes a lot of hard, loud contact. Unfortunately, concerns remain about his ability to consistently make contact. Despite lowering his strikeout rate to 21.6% last year, he still swings and misses at over 15% of balls in the zone. Further, upon his promotion to Double-A, Chavis reverted to a pull-heavy approach (53.9%).
The biggest question surrounding Chavis: is where will he play? He remains a work in progress on defense. Playing just 70 games in the field, Chavis still committed 17 errors. He’s unathletic and with poor footwork at third, despite having the arm for it. Chavis’ future is likely at another position, with Rafael Devers occupying third base for the foreseeable future. Standing at only 5’10” tall, however, Chavis does not have the ideal length for first base. Ultimately, his destiny may be as the dreaded designated hitter.
Still raw around the edges, but also still just 22 years old, Chavis will return to the high minors this year. Continued progress with the bat may force the Red Sox’s hand to find room for Chavis sooner rather than later.
Peak Projection: .255/.315/.480, 30-35 home runs
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Miguel Andujar finally debuted last year, having been signed by the Yankees for $750,000 way back in 2011. Prior to his debut, Andujar began the year back in Double-A following a middling performance there in 2016. He hit the ground running, with a 2-home run game in his second game and rode a .312/.342/.494 slash line to a June promotion to Triple-A. At only 22-years-old, Andujar hit even better in Triple-A, slashing .317/.364/.502 with more walks (6.8%) and fewer strikeouts (13.2%). His impressive performance earned him a 1-game debut on June 28th, in which he went 3 for 4 with a double, a stolen base, a walk, and four runs batted in.
An aggressive hitter, Andujar seeks out contact, utilizing a violent, quick swing. As such, he hits plenty of line drives, while limiting both strikeouts (13.6%) and walks (5.6%). The downside is his swing also creates a lot of groundballs and infield flies, often to the pull-side. Indeed, his burgeoning power is only to left field, with only a single professional home run to right field (in 2014, no less).
Andujar shows promise, but at present is unathletic and lacks range. With a cannon of an arm, Andujar profiles well at the hot corner. In fact, he’s currently the starting third baseman for the Yankees this year. Of course, the Yankees remain in the market for a third baseman, but they need not look further than Andujar.
Peak Projection: .280/.320/.455, 20-25 home runs
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Ever since the Rockies drafted Colton Welker in the fourth round in 2016, he has hit a ton. A career .341/.385/.496 hitter, Welker benefited from some friendly hitting environments. Last year in Low-A Asheville, he hit .400/.449/.584 at home and .302/.355/.419 away. This year, Welker will continue to benefit from the hitting environs of the Rockies’ affiliates at High-A Lancaster.
Welker was impressive even after discounting the thin air. A true all-fields hitter with plus bat speed, he hits line drives (26.1%) and for power to any part of the park. In addition, Welker limits his strikeouts (15.1%) and exhibits exceptional barrel control.
However, Welker is a terrible athlete and not long for third base. Although an adequate fielder, he already has awful range and as his body matures it will only further decline. Nevertheless, Welker has the bat for first base. It will be exciting to watch Welker in the whirling air of Lancaster this year.
Peak Projection: .290/.340/.465, 20-25 home runs
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The Giants drafted Christian Arroyo as a high school shortstop in the 2013 first round. Beginning in 2016, he began splitting time between shortstop and third base. After a scorching hot start at Triple-A last year (.439/.471/.682 in 17 games), the Giants promoted Arroyo to the majors. However, he struggled upon his promotion, hitting .192/.244/.304 and driving nearly everything into the ground (60.6%). Following a particularly bad 2-for-27 stretch to close out May, the Giants demoted Arroyo back to Triple-A. He injured his wrist eight games later, and in his first game back in July, he ended his season with a fractured left hand.
A career .300 hitter, Arroyo employs an aggressive, high contact approach and hits tons of line drives to all fields. Unlikely to hit for much power, Arroyo is not as punchless as his 2016 performance in Double-A Richmond (a difficult hitting environment), or as powerful as his Triple-A performance last year. A realistic, ideal outcome for Arroyo parallels his 2015 High-A performance (.304/.344/.459).
In December, the Giants traded Arroyo to the Tampa Bay Rays as part of the package for Evan Longoria. Entering this season, it is unclear whether he will play shortstop or third base, despite competent defense at both positions. Joining Willy Adames in Triple-A this year, however, Arroyo likely will spend most of his time at third base.
Peak projection: .295/.340/.420, 10-15 home runs
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Following a solid professional debut (.300/.363/.496) after the Marlins selected him in the 2014 third round, Brian Anderson had back-to-back mediocre seasons. Last year, however, Anderson began to consistently tap into his power. Finally jumping the Double-A hurdle after a slow start, Anderson obliterated Triple-A (.339/.416/.602 with 8 home runs). Impressed by Anderson’s progress, the Marlins promoted him in September and he started 21 of the final 29 games at third base. Although he hit for little power in the majors, he held his own (.262/.337/.369) and made a lot of hard contact (28.1% line drives).
Previously pull-heavy, Anderson began hitting to all fields with power last year. His newly discovered game power, combined with his patient, line drive approach, makes Anderson a legitimate offensive threat. Anderson is a potential league average fantasy performer and could manage a .270 with 25 home runs year down the road.
On defense, Anderson pairs a strong arm with good hands and range. Unlike many others on this list, he profiles well at third base, where the rebuilding Marlins have him penciled in this year. In both redraft and dynasty leagues, Anderson is an intriguing flier.
Peak Projection: .250/.335/.435, 20-25 home runs
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After a spectacular Junior season in which he walked 63 times in 71 games, the Miami Marlins selected Colin Moran sixth overall pick in the 2013 Amateur Draft. Regarded as an advanced bat with a potentially elite hit tool, Moran was going to move effortlessly through the system. With such high expectations, Moran’s powerless and unremarkable ascent to the majors disappointed many. Despite debuting in 2016, his season was a letdown (.259/.329/.368) and his prospect stock plummeted.
Everything changed last year. Returning to Triple-A, Moran performed like the player many envisioned back in 2013, slashing .308/.373/.543 with 18 home runs. Putting over 10% more balls in the air while still cranking out line drives (26%), he tapped into his long-dormant power. In addition, Moran maintained his walk rate (9.2%) while reducing his strikeouts (16.3%).
This January, the Houston Astros, who previously acquired Moran from the Marlins for Jarred Cosart, traded Moran to the Pirates in a package for Gerrit Cole. All of a sudden, he is free from the Astros’ infield logjam and projected to start at third base for the Pirates. Like Anderson, Moran is an intriguing flier in both redraft and dynasty leagues. Unlike Anderson, Moran is an awful athlete with below-average range and may need to move across the diamond to first base.
Peak Projection: .270/.335/.420, 15-20 home runs
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After a big Junior season (.369/.465/.646) for Oklahoma, the Washington Nationals drafted Sheldon Neuse in the 2016 second round. A year later, the bullpen-needy Nationals traded him to the Athletics as part of a package for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson in July. He did not disappoint the Athletics. Since joining the organization, he’s hit .380/.444/.567 with 7 home runs across High-A and Double-A.
Neuse’s performance is no fluke; he can really hit. In his brief time in Double-A, Neuse hit an astounding 40.4% line drives! With plus bat speed, Neuse generates all-fields power. Despite his success, he did struggle with contact upon his promotions (27.2 K%). Further, the 14 stolen bases Neuse chipped in last year is more a credit to his base running instincts rather than his speed or athleticism.
In addition to his bat, Neuse is an excellent defensive third baseman. Despite splitting time between shortstop and third base, Neuse played almost exclusively at third base for the Athletics. Lacking the range for shortstop, he fits well at third base, with a big arm, soft hands, and plus range for the position.
Peak Projection: .265/.325/.440, 20-25 home runs
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The first 2017 draftee on this list, Jake Burger has prodigious power. Selected 11th overall, Burger hit 43 home runs across his Sophomore and Junior seasons. Although he did not hit for much power in his professional debut (5 home runs), he limited strikeouts (13.8%) and drew praise for his defense. A bad-body athlete, Burger is more athletic than he appears, but questions persist whether he will eventually move to first base. Even if he does, his bat has a chance to be special, with the ability to hit for both power and average.
Peak Projection: .270/.340/.470, 25-30 home runs
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Drafted by the Indians in the 2016 second round out of high school, Nolan Jones earned a $2,250,000 signing bonus to postpone his college plans at Virginia. Employing an advanced approach for teenager, Jones has a career 16.5% walk rate and already hits the ball to all fields. Last year, he was the best hitter in the New York-Penn League among players with over 200 plate appearances. Arguably, the most incredible part of his performance was hitting 0 infield flies all year. With plus bat speed and a sweet, left-handed swing, Jones has enormous potential.
Peak Projection: .270/.360/.450, 20-25 home runs
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An underappreciated prospect, J.D. Davis has consistently hit for power since the Astros drafted him as a 2014 third rounder. Over 1,854 minor league plate appearances, his isolated power is an astonishing .227. Further, Davis hits for power to all fields and makes a ton of hard contact. The driving concern is how often he will actually make contact. Prone to striking out (24.2%), Davis is unlikely to ever hit for much average. A much-improved defender with a huge arm, Davis is passable at third base despite being as slow as molasses. Unfortunately, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa irrevocably block Davis at third base.
Peak Projection: .245/.305/.455, 25-30 home runs
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A 2016 second rounder, Lucas Erceg had a loud debut, hitting .327/.376/.518, and carried a lot of hype entering last year. He promptly threw cold water all over that hype. After a terrible April and May in High-A Carolina League (.216/.259/.342), Erceg heated up and finished the year on fire (.361/.431/.590 in his last 22 games). Lauded for his impact bat, Erceg is still a work-in-progress. A strong shift candidate, Erceg is an aggressive, pull-heavy hitter, with loads of pull-side grounders. Despite the warts, Erceg has exciting upside, with raw power, a natural feel to hit, a strong arm, and athleticism to develop into a solid defender.
Peak Projection: .260/.310/.460, 25-30 home runs
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Ke’Bryan Hayes hopes to follow in the footsteps of his father, former major league third baseman Charlie Hayes. A 2015 first rounder out of high school, Hayes impressed in the Florida State League last year at just 20 years old, despite a lack of power. A disciplined, high contact hitter, Hayes uses the entire field with excellent bat-to-ball skill. With just 8 home runs and just 51 extra-base hits in 991 professional plate appearances, however, Hayes’ contact is often empty. Last year, Hayes added an extra dimension to his game with 27 stolen bases, despite only average speed. An excellent defender, Hayes has a high floor and is extremely likely to make the majors. Whether he will be an impactful fantasy player is questionable.
Peak Projection: .280/.350/.390, 5-10 home runs, 10-15 stolen bases
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The college teammate of Brendan McKay, Drew Ellis is arguably the better hitter. After a big sophomore season, hitting .355/.448/.701 with 20 home runs, he was the second third baseman selected in the 2017 Amateur Draft. A strong 6’3” and 210 pounds with a quick, simple swing, Ellis has a ton of raw power he easily taps into without overselling. Additionally, he has solid plate discipline, despite some swing-and-miss. Although Ellis under-performed at the plate in his debut, he was excellent in the field.
Peak Projection: .250/.330/.460, 25-30 home runs
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The son of former major league third baseman Phil Nevin, Tyler Nevin was the 38th overall pick in 2015. After suffering a severe hamstring injury in Spring Training, Nevin lost the entire 2016 season. Back in action last year, Tyler Nevin rebounded nicely in Low-A. After returning from hand injury in July, Nevin hit .336/.381/.523 in the second half. As with Welker above, Nevin benefited from Asheville, hitting .341/.380/.522 at home and .275/.351/.400 away. Nonetheless, Nevin performed well, with excellent discipline, plenty of line drives, and all-fields power. While he is a promising bat, his defense is poor and he played more games at first bases last year.
Peak Projection: .270/.330/.425, 15-20 home runs
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A 2016 first rounder as a teenager, Hudson Potts had a monstrous finish to the season in Low-A, slashing .347/.391/.661 with 9 home runs over his last 30 games. Very young for the level, just 18 years old last year, Potts flashed serious power potential with plus bat speed. An overly aggressive hitter (4.4 BB%) who struggles with contact (26.8 K%), Potts remains very raw. Already 6’3” and 205 pounds, Potts is highly projectable.
Peak Projection: .260/.300/.440, 20-25 home runs
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An unheralded 15th round pick in 2015, James Nelson had a tremendous year in Low-A South Atlantic League at just 19 years old. With plus bat speed and a feel for hitting, he is also developing power as he fills out his athletic 6’2” frame. A raw, aggressive hitter, Nelson struggles with contact (24.6 K%) and his swing lacks loft to fully tap into his power. On defense, Nelson has a lot of potential, with good range and a strong arm.
Peak Projection: .280/.325/.430, 15-20 home runs
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A 2015 third round pick out of high school, Travis Blankenhorn had an uninspiring debut, but followed it up with a solid performance in 2016 between Rookie ball and Low-A (.293/.348/.502). Returning to Low-A last year, Blankenhorn had an up-and-down season, oscillating between exceptional and atrocious. When he is on, he employs a short, direct swing, generating all-fields power and exhibiting a patient approach. When he is off, Blankenhorn struggles with contact, becomes pull-heavy, and makes a lot of weak contact. Splitting time between second base and third base, Blankenhorn is currently athletic enough for both positions, but likely moves to third base full-time.
Peak Projection: .270/.330/.425, 15-20 home runs
The Best of the Rest
The 2018 Third Base Sleepers
The following prospects may rise significantly with strong showings in 2018. Each has immense upside, but each is also years away from the majors.
Cristian Santana, Los Angeles Dodgers: Destroying the Pioneer League over 10 games (.537/.583/1.000 with 5 home runs), Santana quickly moved to Low-A Midwest League where he continued to hit (.322/.339/.460 with 5 more home runs). With plus bat speed and a hyper-aggressive approach, Santana takes violent cuts, leading to lots of swing-and-miss. However, he has plus raw power and a good feel for barreling the ball, making all-fields contact. Extremely unrefined, Santana is exactly the type of deep league flier fantasy owners should target.
Dermis Garcia, New York Yankees: Signed by the Yankees for $3 million in 2014, Garcia finally arrived in full-season ball last year. With 70- (or even 80-) grade raw power, which he is starting to tap into in games (17 home runs and .293 ISO last year), he has sky-high upside. A player of extremes, Garcia pairs the power with a raw approach. Pull-happy (59%) and fly-ball centric (52%) with lots of walks (14.3%) and strikeouts (30.4%), he is reminiscent to a young Joey Gallo. His development could go any number of ways, but that power is mouthwatering.
Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox: A 2016 fourth round pick, Dalbec gained a lot of attention after an explosive debut in the New York-Penn League (.386/.427/.674). What many forgot were the strikeouts. During his Junior year, he struck out 85 times in 63 games. Well, last year, he reminded everyone of his history with strikeouts by tallying 132 in 85 games (37.4%). When he made contact, however, it was hard (28% line drives). Further, Dalbec was patient at the plate and finished the season hot, hitting .297/.407/.576 with 7 home runs over his last 31 games. If he can solve his contact issues, Dalbec could be a special bat.
Emmanuel Rivera, Kansas City Royals: Unlike his fellow sleeper prospects, Rivera is a more polished hitter with budding power and a potential defensive maestro. One of the top hitters in the South Atlantic League, he slashed .310/.364/.468 with 12 home runs on the year. A disciplined, all-fields hitter, Rivera began making hard, line drive contact last year, totaling 44 extra-base hits. Strong armed and agile, Rivera is a possible plus defender.
Close to the Show: The 40-Man Roster Third Base Prospect
Expect several of the following players to see time in the majors this year. Injuries or under-performance at the major league level could elevate several to starting jobs.
Dawel Lugo, Detroit Tigers: The centerpiece of the J.D. Martinez trade last July, Lugo is an aggressive, high contact hitter with enough pull-side power to produce 15 home runs. Last year, in Double-A, he hit .277/.321/.424 while providing solid defense. Likely ticketed for Triple-A this year, Lugo is a poor Jeimer Candelario performance away from a starting job.
Renato Nunez, Oakland Athletics: Like Davis above, Nunez is a powerful man, with a career .207 isolated power in the minors, but plagued by contact issues (26.5 K%). Unlike Davis, Nunez is aggressive and pull-heavy. The antithesis of Matt Chapman in the field, Nunez lacks range and is a terrible defender. Seeing more and more time in left field, he is near certainty to move from third base.
Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals: A former 2013 first round pick, Dozier languished in mediocrity for several years until breaking out in 2016 (.296/.366/.533), leading to a brief debut. Thought to make an impact last year, Dozier instead suffered a strained oblique in April and a broken wrist in June, only appearing in 33 games. When healthy, he is patient with gap-to-gap power. Dozier, however, struggled with contact his entire career, including 50 strikeouts last year. At nearly 27, his opportunities are running out.
Kelvin Gutierrez, Washington Nationals: Despite only reaching High-A, Kelvin Gutierrez is on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Although a line drive, all-fields hitter, he lacks loft in his swing and generates a Yandy Diaz-level of groundballs (56%). The raw power is there, and with added leverage, Gutierrez can turn those grounders into line drives and those line drives into home runs. Normally a disciplined, high-contact hitter, he suffered from an uncharacteristic amount of swing-and-miss (24.1%) last year. An adept fielder, Gutierrez has a high floor as a utilityman with the upside for more.
Close to the Show: The High-A and Above Third Base Prospect
The road for prospects is long and winding. These prospects are one step closer, already reaching High-A, and in some cases, beyond.
Matt Beaty, Los Angeles Dodgers: Always a disciplined, high contact hitter, Beaty is beginning to add power to his repertoire. The best hitter in Double-A Texas League last year, Beaty hit a jaw-dropping .326/.378/.505 with 15 home runs while rarely striking out (11.2%). Without a true position, he saw time at third base, first base, outfield, and even second base last year. Keep a close eye on his progress this year as Beaty may surprise similarly to Austin Barnes.
Jomar Reyes, Baltimore Orioles: After an unsightly .228/.271/.336 performance in High-A in 2016, Reyes returned to Frederick last year. Following a strong start, he suffered a broken finger in late April punching a wall, costing him most of the season. An imposing 6’3” and 220 pounds, Reyes displays gigantic raw power and a plus arm. Presently, Reyes’ swing does not tap into his power and creates a lot of groundballs. Further, he is extremely aggressive and raw at the plate. Only turning 21 years old later this month, Reyes still possesses as much upside as any Orioles prospect.
David Thompson, New York Mets: A 2015 fourth rounder, Thompson continues to fly under the radar. Considered an excellent hit/power prospect out of college, but a poor defender, he flipped the script as a professional. Yet to truly showcase the same college hitting ability, Thompson is a consistent, average hitter (.263/.325/.429 at Double-A). Meanwhile, he is developing into a skilled, above-average defender. At the very least, Thompson’s floor is far higher than it was in 2015 and, with further development at the plate, he is a major league regular.
Joe Rizzo, Seattle Mariners: Turning 20 years old shortly after Opening Day, Rizzo is already in High-A. A 2016 second rounder as a teenager, he has yet to hit for any power as a professional. Rizzo, however, exhibits a patient (13 BB%), all-fields approach belying his youth. Observers waver over whether he will develop power (he is only 5’9”) or stick at third base.
The 2017 Third Base Draftees
Besides Burger and Ellis, the 2017 Amateur Draft included many intriguing third base prospects. Here are the most interesting options.
Jacob Gonzalez, San Francisco Giants: The son of Luis Gonzalez, a five-time All-Star, Gonzalez possesses many of the same attributes as his father. Drafted in the second round out of high school, he was exceptional in his debut, slashing .339/.418/.458 and demonstrating great discipline (23/16 K/BB in 46 games). With plus raw power and a promising hit tool, Gonzalez has nice upside.
Andrew Bechtold, Minnesota Twins: A fifth round pick out of Junior College, Bechtold is an advanced, disciplined hitter with moderate power. In his debut last year, he showed off patience (15.4 BB%) and generated a lot of all-fields, hard contact (32% line drives). Despite no stolen bases as a professional, Bechtold has some speed and stolen 24 bases in his last year in college.
Will Toffey, Oakland Athletics: Selected in the fourth round, Toffey is the prototypical Athletics prospect. A walking machine throughout college, the Cape Cod League, and his debut (15%), he only began pairing the patience with authoritative contact last year. Questions persist whether Toffey will hit for power as a professional and, so far, he has not.
Joe Perez, Houston Astros: Although Perez possesses a rocket arm and many teams (and MLB.com) considered him a pitching prospect, the Astros selected him in the second round as a hitter. Yet to make his professional debut due to Tommy John surgery, Perez is a bit of a mystery. Observers note his raw power, projectable 6’3” frame, and big arm make for an intriguing package at third base.
The Elsewhere-Eligible Third Base Prospect
Destined for third base but currently playing shortstop, these notable prospects will be on upcoming lists. Here’s where they’d rank were they on this list.
Gleyber Torres, Shortstop, New York Yankees: Between Guerrero and Senzel
Ryan Mountcastle, Shortstop, Baltimore Orioles: Between Andujar and Welker
Ryan Vilade, Shortstop, Colorado Rockies: Between Burger and Jones
Isaac Paredes, Shortstop, Detroit Tigers: Between Ellis and Nevin
Mark Vientos, Shortstop, New York Mets: Between Dozier and Santana
Joe Dunand, Shortstop, Miami Marlins: Between Dozier and Santana, after Vientos