Jack Cecil’s Top 100 Dynasty League Prospects: 2017 All Star Break Edition
So here are the rules fellas. I made this list to replicate what I believe would reflect normal trade value in my 14 team dynasty league. Obviously teams that are in dead last would prefer younger higher ceiling guys, and the win now squads prefer something closer to the MLB for insurance. Players in this years draft were considered as were international signees although there was not a 2017 J2 player I felt compelled to consider as a top 100 prospect. The list is based off both talent, and production as all lists do, but I did not want to leave anything to the imagination when reading this. One paragraph is enough of an introduction, here is the list.
| 1 | Yoan Moncada | 2B |
| 2 | Brendan Rodgers | SS |
| 3 | Rafael Devers | 3B |
| 4 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B |
| 5 | Eloy Jimenez | OF |
| 6 | Victor Robles | OF |
| 7 | Alex Reyes | RHP |
| 8 | Amed Rosario | SS |
| 9 | Kevin Maitan | SS |
| 10 | Clint Frazier | OF |
| 11 | Austin Meadows | OF |
| 12 | Lewis Brinson | OF |
| 13 | Francis Martes | RHP |
| 14 | Kyle Tucker | OF |
| 15 | Ronald Acuna | OF |
| 16 | Kyle Lewis | OF |
| 17 | Gleyber Torres | SS |
| 18 | Franklin Barreto | SS |
| 19 | Luis Robert | OF |
| 20 | Francisco Mejia | C |
| 21 | Michael Kopech | RHP |
| 22 | Willy Adames | SS |
| 23 | Mitch Keller | RHP |
| 24 | Jorge Mateo | SS |
| 25 | Corey Ray | OF |
| 26 | Nick Senzel | 3B |
| 27 | Keston Hiura | 2B/OF |
| 28 | Jay Groome | LHP |
| 29 | AJ Puk | LHP |
| 30 | Brent Honeywell | RHP |
| 31 | Alex Verdugo | OF |
| 32 | Kolby Allard | LHP |
| 33 | Zack Collins | C |
| 34 | Triston McKenzie | LHP |
| 35 | Blake Rutherford | OF |
| 36 | Rhys Hoskins | 1B |
| 37 | Lucas Giolito | RHP |
| 38 | Austin Beck | OF |
| 39 | Mickey Moniak | OF |
| 40 | Brendan McKay | 1B |
| 41 | Raimel Tapia | OF |
| 42 | Royce Lewis | OF |
| 43 | Juan Soto | OF |
| 44 | Adrian Morejon | LHP |
| 45 | Kyle Wright | RHP |
| 46 | Yadier Alvarez | RHP |
| 47 | Leody Taveras | OF |
| 48 | Nick Gordon | SS |
| 49 | Riley Pint | RHP |
| 50 | Walker Buehler | RHP |
| 51 | Sean Newcomb | LHP |
| 52 | Jose de Leon | RHP |
| 53 | Matt Manning | RHP |
| 54 | Ozzie Albies | 2B |
| 55 | Sixto Sanchez | RHP |
| 56 | Anderson Espinoza | RHP |
| 57 | Anthony Alford | OF |
| 58 | Isan Diaz | SS |
| 59 | Josh Hader | LHP |
| 60 | Forrest Whitley | RHP |
| 61 | Justus Sheffield | LHP |
| 62 | Mike Soroka | RHP |
| 63 | Alec Hansen | RHP |
| 64 | Ian Anderson | RHP |
| 65 | Hunter Greene | RHP |
| 66 | Jorge Alfaro | C |
| 67 | Delvin Perez | SS |
| 68 | Bo Bichette | SS |
| 69 | MacKenzie Gore | LP |
| 70 | Jesus Sanchez | 1B/OF |
| 71 | Pavin Smith | 1B |
| 72 | Willie Calhoun | 2B |
| 73 | Richard Urena | SS |
| 74 | Bobby Bradley | 1B |
| 75 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SS |
| 76 | Franklin Perez | RHP |
| 77 | Jesse Winker | OF |
| 78 | Chance Adams | RHP |
| 79 | Cal Quantrill | RHP |
| 80 | Jeimer Candelario | 3B |
| 81 | Alex Faedo | RHP |
| 82 | David Paulino | RHP |
| 83 | JB Bukauskas | RHP |
| 84 | Yohander Mendez | LHP |
| 85 | Amir Garrett | LHP |
| 86 | Luiz Gohara | LHP |
| 87 | Luis Ortiz | RHP |
| 88 | Estevan Florial | OF |
| 89 | Seth Romero | LHP |
| 90 | Evan White | 1B |
| 91 | Brent Rooker | 1B |
| 92 | Jeren Kendall | OF |
| 93 | JP Crawford | SS |
| 94 | Sean Reid-Foley | RHP |
| 95 | Domingo Acevedo | RHP |
| 96 | Will Benson | OF |
| 97 | Luis Urias | SS |
| 98 | Adam Haseley | OF |
| 99 | Derek Fisher | OF |
| 100 | Luis Escobar | RHP |
All normal or funny questions will be answered. Insults will be met with more insults or by being ignored, and I don’t have a problem with other readers ganging up on the mean guy.
The Author
41 Comments
What about McMahon? I find it surprising he isn’t up here when he’s about just as good as Candy.
Watching McMahon this year and last, what I saw were results that didn’t necessarily seem sustainable. While he does put the ball in play more this year, it seems like he’s putting a lot of grounders through the holes, that I believe will eventually be swallowed up by the shift. His 33% and 28% fly ball rates in AA and AAA seem to align with that I was seeing. Also, while he does have the hands for third, he’s a below average runner and he doesn’t have the cannon arm you’d like in the hot corner. This means at least two more season blocked by Arenado at third, pushing him over to first where there are also candidates already at the big league level, making him a good candidate for a trade to help the MLB team. In the end he’s a first baseman, potentially out of Coors, whom I could poke holes in his batted ball profile didn’t seem worth it, although he was a candidate for the list I considered. If Arenado tears an ACL and he gets to jump right into MLB 3B rankings, this won’t be a good look for me.
Couldn’t disagree more on McMahon. He had a diwn year last year, but has bounced back and then some this year. He is playing some second base as well as first and third. Colorado is not a team that spends a ton of money, so Reynolds and/LeMieheu will be gone in the next two seasons. In the meantime, Mcmahon will be given time all around the dirt until he settles in at first (maybe third).
And since he will play half his games in Coors, he stand to put up some impressive numbers. He is only 22 years old and continues to improve. I’d have him inside my top 75 for sure, probably closer to 50.
Interesting list though
I appreciate hearing your reasoning. I also thank you for writing this up. Add blurbs about players, thats what we all really want, tell your boss.
SO…
There are a bunch of top 100 players with ~30% fb rate,
BABIP’s between .341 – .414 in 500+ games suggests talent more than luck to me
and he’s like 11 and 2 on SB’s this year, not sure how that plays out to below avg runner… someone like Jesse Winker is a “below average runner”
If you really don’t think he’s not top 100 right now , you are trying too hard.
~cheers
What are your thoughts on Jack Flaherty? How close was he to making the list?
Flaherty is an interesting guy, but ultimately he lacks the upside that i’d really want in a pitcher i’m going to roster. While the Cardinals do win, I don’t bump up his value because of the wins. But I don’t consider him very different than the guys at the very end of the list and he did receive consideration.
Do you think Jimenez’s value increased by moving from NL to AL? Picked up Robles over him last week in 24 team league solely based on ranking discrepancy (48 v 79) in the new top 500. Jimenez still available, FYI.
Not really, the park factors are about the same, and he’s not in need of days at DH. Robles is very nice, but he is a better real life player than fantasy even though he is very good for both at both. He has a great arm and covers a lot of ground in CF presently. If you could have both, that’s a nice core to have your farm based around.
Oz Albies at 54? Thought he might be a bit more desirable given his clear path to the Braves
He’ll be up soon, but i’m not confident he’s what I want to invest in. While he’s certainly fast, he has yet to steal 30 bags in a minor league season, and it’s very hard to imagine a guy with such a slight build every hitting more than 15 homers. He has a tremendous glove, but there isn’t much frame to project more offensive potential on. He reminds me of faster Ender Inciarte on the dirt at his best, which is good but not great.
[…] TheDynastyGuru.com updates their rankings of the top 100 fantasy prospects. […]
I think you need to move Soto and Bichette way up
that’s nice
A. Meadows hasn’t shown jack
You’re right, an .861 OPS while being 4.1 years younger than you competition last year is not good. You should give us your top 100.
Surprised to see Maitan this high. I’m glad because I have him, buy I was considering dropping him after seeing the new top 500. Why is he above Senzel, Barreto, …? Thanks for the list!
Senzel just doesn’t have the ceiling for me to be interested. A third baseman who is driven by batting average is nice, but i’m not going to put a lot of stock in that. Barreto I like a lot, but the unusual very short and stocky build will likely push him down the defensive spectrum, meanwhile I already expect Maitan to move to third, and he’s looking like he’s going to be built like a switch hitting linebacker.
Where do you see Harrison Bader and Jimmie Sherfy?
Bader is looking like a 4th outfielder who runs well. If his hit tool gets better, then he could be an ok real life, replacement OF in fantasy. Sherfy is a minor league reliever, so he’s off my radar.
Glad to see Keston Hiura high on the list. I invested but am still a bit nervous that his elbow might explode.
It seems that all elbows are capable of exploding in baseball, but I don’t have an issue with him being forced to recover from an injury. He’s been destroying baseballs for two years now with elbow issues.
Very high on Keston Hiura. I must asmit I amnot familiar with him at all. He has yet to play the field, is he a second baseman or outfielder long term? What kind of power/plate discipline does he have? How quickly do you see him rising through the minors?
Also, McMahon has been playing more and more second base. I wonder if Colorado looks to deal LeMiehu before his contract runs out….
Keston Hiura was on UC Irvine where he was a DH all year because of a UCL issue. Last year he played both 2B and OF. He’s about 6ft, and is over 200 lbs, with broad shoulders. He’s about an average runner. He hits everything he swings at, squaring up both low and high balls, inside and out. He also does a good job of going with the pitch, rarely forcing something at the plate. His plate discipline is excellent. He has above average to plus power. If he doesn’t have to sit because of his elbow, he should be a very quick riser, and could be up by next year.
Regarding McMahon and the Rockies, the Rockies are trying to make a playoff push, and LeMahieu has been a big part of their success so far.I can’t imagine why they would look to deal him away when they have Rodgers coming up as a potential middle infielder. I could see McMahon dealt away for more help on the MLB team later this year, at which point he’d have a much better chance of being a real MLB 3B.
Owning a full 1/5 of this list, I’m excited! For the 2019 season!
Thoughts on Joe Adell? Did he come close?
I don’t know enough about him to have a real take on him besides what we have all seen on Youtube. There have been plenty of power/speed OFs in the past, and there will be plenty more in the future. He could easily be on all off season lists but we’ll see.
Curious why Dominic Smith didn’t make your list.
Making any sort of prospect list is hard as a 1B, but for a dynasty one, it’s pretty easy to sum up. He doesn’t hit enough. He’s as slow of a runner as you can possibly find in professional baseball, and at that point you need to be absolutely pounding the ball to get away with that. He isn’t doing that and his batted ball profile hasn’t been nearly close enough to what you want from a 1B in fantasy.
What were the reasons for Derek Fisher at 99?
The questions on his hit tool are the only reason, I don’t have any real data on his plate discipline yet beyond his brief debut, which was not very encouraging, while also being too small of a sample to learn from. He can still really run, and has good pop and he’s already played MLB games so he has to be on the list.
How about Scott Kingery?
He might be a victim of over exposure to me. I actually live in the Lehigh Valley so i’ve seen him a bunch over the past two seasons. I may be dead wrong but when I look at his spray chart, his homers barely clear the wall, and i’ve never though he looked like he was clobbering balls like I would expect from a guy who is hitting dingers at the rate he is. He runs well, and for that I did consider putting him in the 88-100 group, but I just haven’t bought in yet, although he was the last player to not make the list if there’s any consolation in that.
Nick Senzel is not a shortstop. He’s third base.
fixed
I have been involved in Dynasty Baseball for three years now, in two Yahoo leagues, one with 3 n/a spots and one with 10 spots. I enjoy it but keep hearing about leagues with deeper prospect positions. Can you give me some advice which companies are best for dynasty? Also on a side note, What are your thoughts on Musgrove of the Astros? I am holding on to him for now, but need starting p;itching and he just got moved to the pen. Do you think he will come around and what are his chances of breaking back into that rotaion especially if the Stros get S. Gray?
Best companies is a little ambiguous since i’m not sure if you mean best site, which i’d vote for CBS (which ive never used, but every person I know on it raves about it) and Fantrax, which I have used, and the player pool is insanely deep.
Regarding Musgrove he’s an unusual young pitcher. Most pitching prospects fall into three buckets 1. the stuff guys (good K/9, hopefully good K%), 2. the guys who induce grounders (the best ball in play there is) or 3. the command guys (good BB/9 and BB%). They are ordered in the way I prefer them, and pitchers who fit in multiple buckets tend to be very high end arms. Musgrove has been a very good control pitcher for his whole minor league career and now is in the MLB with a bunch of average offerings. This isn’t a bad thing, but ultimately if you play in a format that rewards Ks I think his upside is limited. I can see him making it back to the rotation but Martes and Paulino both have much better stuff in my opinion, and I’d rather be invested in either of them long term over Musgrove, which doesn’t give him a lot of wiggle room considering Keuchel and McCullers are already on the MLB team to stay, along with whomever pops up next.
Thanks for the list. I’ve really enjoyed it. I have a couple of questions, though. You have Jesus Sanchez ranked 70, but Yordan Alvarez did not make the list. Why do you think Sanchez is a better 1B prospect than Alvarez? Why do you have Amir Garrett ranked so high? (Higher than most other lists that I’ve seen)
I just know more about Jesus Sanchez than Alvarez to be honest so i’ll start with him first. They’re both young for their leagues, and both are big bodied powerful bats. Sanchez has struck out FAR less, but Alvarez has also shown a more patient approach working plenty of walks. They both are capable of becoming nice 1Bs, and I don’t expect either to be a real game changer long term. Sanchez’s better bat to ball profile is more encouraging, and gap in babip helps explain the explosion of production that Alvarez has had in low a, while not yet seeing it in high a.
Regarding Garrett, he’s already been in the MLB and has thrown some very nice games so that’s something to factor in when thinking about his risk. Otherwise I just expect him to be an ok pitcher.
No Flaherty? Wrong. No Tyler O’Neill? Wrong. Honeywell too low. Gleyber too low. Luis Urias way too low.
Amazing list and based on your comment responses, very thorough. Thank you for this.
Nice to see Brinson in the top 12. What do you think his ceiling is realistically? Looking to trade for him, but I’ve seen mixed opinions especially after his first brief stint.
Why so high on Martes? Considering so many other pitchers on this list are having significantly better seasons than him.