Dynasty Football

Using Pre-NFL Draft ADP to Uncover Value

If you’re into personal finance, chances are that you’re at least familiar with the debate on whether the market is priced efficiently at any given point in time. If it is, then it would be impossible to reliably uncover undervalued assets. The data suggests that stock picking and “timing the market” is not a repeatable skill, yet people continue to endeavor to try.

It can reasonably be argued that the dynasty stock market is similarly efficiently priced. Sure, some people might pick winners and losers better than the next this year, but over a big enough sample size, maybe we’re all just throwing darts and flipping coins. Yet I’ll endeavor to try, too, based on the latest single quarterback ADP data available on Rotoviz as of this writing (April 5th, 2017).

Buy: 

Kenneth Dixon (81.6) – The giant caveat here is that Dixon’s ADP has fallen 35 spots (115 for those of you keeping score) since the double whammy of Woodhead’s signing and the four game suspension was announced. Dixon has endured some lightweight verbal abuse from his head coach, which I know my league mates took note of. At an ADP closer to 120, Dixon is a value. He had a respectable debut, decent pedigree and there are still no long-term fixtures on the depth chart ahead of him. As with last year, there’s a reasonable chance that Dixon will be a lead back in October.

Tyler Boyd (127.7) – Boyd had the best age-adjusted production in last year’s draft class – the rare metric that may be meaningful in predicting success for WR prospects besides draft pedigree. A “post-hype sleeper” who never really had that much hype to begin with, the now-22-year-old had a decent enough rookie year for a younger-than-average rookie. With the Bengals expected to target running back on draft day, he has only injury-plagued Tyler Eifert to beat out for second most targets on the Bengals opposite AJ Green. There’s upside here and I’m not sure why he’s going so much later than the much older Sterling Shepard (ADP 54).

Leonte Carroo (168.5) – Another caveat? Carroo’s ADP has slipped into the 200’s following the signing of Kenny Stills. He’s been buried by the Miami beat writers, but this is another player whose age-adjusted production suggests he could eventually be considered a third round steal. Recall that the Dolphins traded three picks to go get him, yet he’s priced as a fringe-drop at this point. In a best-ball league in which I’m in “win-now” mode I’m trying to flip Carroo for something that can help me put up points today, but even the rebuilding teams aren’t biting for anything (e.g. Chris Thompson). If you’re in rebuilding mode ask for Carroo as a throw-in to a fair deal. He only just turned 23 in January and still has fantasy WR3 upside.

Sell:

Jordan Howard (24) – Howard had an outstanding 2016 season and there’s little reason to believe he can’t be a productive contributor in 2017. Still, his volume was a product in part of of very little competition, he still has shaky pedigree as a third down back in my opinion, and at this price owners are necessarily considering him a long-term, every down back. I’m skeptical.

Jordy Nelson (30) – If you held on to Jordy Nelson last year or even bought him last year despite the cries from many in the dynasty community to sell before the decline happened, hats off to you smarty pants. Nelson was a legitimate league winner despite a breakout season from his teammate, Davante Adams (ADP 27). Now is the time to cash out, perhaps for a Stefon Diggs (ADP 31) or for a lesser player plus a 2018 1st round pick.

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Tom Trudeau

Tom Trudeau

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