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The Dynasty Guru’s Top 50 Dynasty League Shortstops, Nos. 1-20

It’s been over two months since the Cubs won their first World Series in 108 years, ending the 2016 baseball season. But if you’re like most fantasy baseball owners, those two months probably feel like two years. Considering it’s still another month until Spring Training even starts, late January has to be the worst time to be a baseball fan. It’s too late to reflect on last year, but next season is too far ahead to look forward to. Luckily, with a little help from The Dynasty Guru, the next month is survivable, as we’ll be ranking and commenting on a whole lot of players over the next six weeks.

The Dynasty Guru’s hard-working staff has spent countless hours crafting these rankings, and we hope you enjoy and continue to support our efforts by showing your appreciation through this link or via the splendid ‘donate’ button located on the upper right-hand corner of the homepage. Donations of any size are greatly appreciated.

You can view our rankings for previous positions, and the dates future rankings will come out, by clicking the link to TDG’s 2017 Consensus Dynasty Baseball Rankings splash page. With that, it’s time to look at the stacked top-half of our dynasty shortstop rankings, beginning with… a third baseman?

1) Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 1st at 3B)

Fresh off a season where he set career-highs in home runs, RBI, and runs, Machado finds himself with the added benefit of SS eligibility heading into 2017. Thanks to an injured J.J. Hardy, Machado was able to play 45 games at shortstop, a position he hasn’t played regularly since 2012 when he was in the minor leagues. Though not the sublime defender he is at third base, his home run total of 37 puts himself in rarified air for a shortstop-eligible player. Since the year 2000 only Alex Rodriguez, who did it four times, has eclipsed the 37 home run mark while playing the game’s most glamorous defensive position.

All of this is great, but if you want to nit-pick, you can look to the fact that he will likely only have this eligibility though this season. The other factor which may give you some pause about his ranking is the fact that his stolen base total evaporated from 20 to 0 in just one season. Machado also walked less, made less contact, and had a slightly lower wRC+, though he did have his highest hard contact rate of his career. Things still look to be trending upward for this 24-year-old perennial MVP candidate but it’s not all gravy as usual.

2) Carlos Correa, Houston Astros (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 1)

Correa very quietly had quite a remarkable season last year and absolutely no one is talking about it. Maybe it was because of where he was drafted last season, in the first round–about seventh overall–in almost every draft. Maybe it was because what he did over 99 games during his debut season was just so remarkable we were all expecting an especially extraordinary in 2016. Despite not being otherworldly last year, Correa was still excellent, accruing 4.9 fWAR as a 21-year-old.

Going into his age-22 season, the 2015 Rookie of the Year will look to maintain his health on the way to an improved 2017 campaign. Although he played in 153 games in 2016, he was slowed by ankle and shoulder injuries. This cerebral youngster is a good bet to improve across the board over the next few seasons, and, if Manny Machado loses his shortstop eligibility, is very likely to reclaim the top spot on this list in 2018.

3) Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 4)

Wow! I have to say, I was not expecting that. Nope. Not one bit. Sure, I thought Seager would have a great year but jeez….the kid almost took down the National League MVP in his rookie season. This was not a Jose Abreu rookie situation, this was a 22-year-old kid coming in and destroying the league.

Kudos to Farhan Zaidi and Andrew Friedman for not even entertaining the idea of trading this youngster in 2015 when rumors were abound.  At a very solid 6’4”, many scouts thought this guy was going to have to move to third, though he looks to have shortstop eligibility locked down for a long time. Seager should only improve as the years go on, leaving his leading 137 wRC+ as an attractive…starting point for what could be a fantasy career for the ages.

4) Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 2)

In 2014, Bogaerts couldn’t hit the breaking ball and was exploited by big league pitchers. He was stuck hunting for fastballs and only managed a .240 batting average with 12 home runs, still a solid mark for a 21-year-old rookie. In 2015, Bogaerts shored up this weakness, taking a more contact-heavy approach and batted an outstanding .320/.355/.421. The near-slap-hitting strategy cost him power, though, with just seven dingers. Bogaerts took another step in his evolution during 2016, slashing .329/.388/.475 in the first half with a 131 wRC+, along with plenty of power.

Alas, things went south in the second half. A secret to his success prior to the All Star Break was a .369 BABIP, which dropped down to .290. His wRC+ fell as well, down to 92, though the overall numbers from 2016 were still impressive. Bogaerts recorded career bests in home runs, RBI, runs, and stolen bases, all while walking more than ever before. His slash line of .294/.356/.446 justified all the hype he had pre-season and his 21 home runs gave us an idea of his power upside. Bogaerts will look to continue his steady improvements in 2017 and in any given year has the talent to grab the top spot on this list.

5) Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 5)

Francisco Lindor, asset with the bat! There’s a line I never thought I would write. Consider me a skeptic but, to be fair, I wasn’t the only one. Even after what we saw in 2015 over 99 games, many did not believe Lindor would consistently be a real fantasy weapon at shortstop. Boy, were we wrong. In 2016, Tito moved Lindor from second in the order to third and let him mash. Lindor was excellent, contributing in every meaningful category…even smashing 15 home runs.

While I think he is at his current power ceiling, there is no reason why he can’t sustain that mark and potentially have a year or two when he runs into an extra five taters. From 2015-2016, Lindor managed to also cut his strikeout rate and improve his plate discipline, while also making more hard contact than ever before. Now with Edwin Encarnacion and a (hopefully) healthy Michael Brantley behind him in the batting order, things could only get better.

6) Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 6)

And here we are, we have finally arrived at the drop off.  The first five of this group are absolute fantasy studs, guys who you draft and set in your lineup without so much as a second look. In Russell, we have a player with the potential to join that elite category, but with some current issues that need to be ironed out. 2016 was overwhelmingly positive for Russell. You may have even heard that his team won the championship and broke some old curse or something. He even had some personal growth of his own.

After two years in the majors, a low batting average and on-base percentage are still issues that plague Russell. Still, he’s just 23 and rushed to the majors, and offers outstanding power potential. He’s continually improved, chopping his strikeout rate from 28.5% in 2015 to 22.6% and raising his walk rate by a point, all while making more contact and hard contact. Progress! We also saw him take huge jumps ahead in the home run and RBI departments, and could finally raise his average next season to make him an elite fantasy player. 

7) Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 44)

Well this is quite surprising! I wasn’t expecting to see you here Mr. Villar. Truthfully, I kinda thought you would be struggling to find a path to regular playing time and using up the rest of your minor league options. Instead, you were the number one fantasy shortstop on ESPN’s player rater. How about that? The Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl and Jon Villar: number one fantasy shortstop. Who said the American dream was dead?

Villar is the elder statesman of this top ten at the wise old age of 25. So, youth is on his side, as is multi-positional eligibility. Villar expects to open up the season as the starting second baseman for the Brew Crew, making him a flexible player you can plug virtually anywhere in your infield. The biggest question, keeping him from being even higher on this list, is the sustainability of his monster 2016. While that HR/FB rate of 19.6% is going to drop, his profile means that last year’s .373 BABIP could remain high. With that in mind, Villar should be able to remain solid in the batting average department, while pitching in 40 to 50 stolen bases with at least double digit home runs, and that’s, well, pretty damn good.

8) Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 21)

Just two years after being picked first overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2015 draft out of Vanderbilt, Swanson is taking the reins at shortstop for the foreseeable future. His rise through the minors was swift, and Swanson carried his impressive patience and polish into the big leagues. While the league is bound to adjust, Swanson has the tools to adjust back and become a .300 hitter some day with a very usable amount of power and speed.

This shiny new player retains his rookie eligibility in 2017 just as the Braves open up their new digs, Sun Trust Park. Early estimates say that Swanson is likely to open the season batting second, right in front of Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp. In this company, Swanson could enjoy a fairly productive rookie season and should see plenty of pitches to hit. The ceiling for Swanson is likely a .300 20/20 guy with strong OBP. I would bet it take about three seasons for him to get there, but the tools are all in the chest.

9) Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 11th at 2B)

Cubs’ fans are really spoiled. World Series champs, Kris Bryant, Theo Epstein, Anthony Rizzo, Joe Maddon, Jon Lester, Jake Arietta, and two shortstops in the top ten on our dynasty ranks. Sure, Baez isn’t likely to play shortstop, but he’ll maintain this eligibility for at least another season. If he does move off the position for good, Baez should still play first, second, third, and the outfield, offering incredible flexibility.

Baez is both versatile and skilled, and the only thing holding him back is the Cubs’ crowded depth chart which doesn’t offer him clear playing time. Still, Joe Maddon’s creativity should afford him enough playing time to allow his huge power and solid speed to eventually shine. There’s plenty of risk given his very poor strikeout-to-walk ratio, but progress has been made and will continue to be. Baez is getting better and remains capable of All Star seasons if he continues to improve. After some turbulence over the past couple seasons, the arrow could be pointing upward here for good.

10) Brendan Rodgers, Colorado Rockies (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 14)

Taken third overall in the same draft as Swanson, Rodgers was the higher-ceiling prep guy that Colorado couldn’t help dreaming on. The profile for high school hitters is risky, but with the bat speed, hit tool, and raw power that Rodgers had, it was too hard to pass up. Early results have been mostly good with solid numbers at Low-A Asheville last year, where he swatted 19 home runs. He will look to build on his success at High-A in 2017 at just 20-years-old.

The prospect of this young, power hitting shortstop playing his home games at Coors Field is what really makes fantasy owners drool. He is still likely three years away from his first full-season in the big leagues, but if his development continues to be positive, .280 and 30 home runs in his prime is not out of the question. There are some who doubt his ability to stay at short long term, but he does have the arm for third base, and the bat would certainly play there.

11) Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 3)

The number one shortstop in these rankings two years ago, the fall down to the 11 spot has been a bit bumpy for Tulo. The biggest culprit to Tulo’s declining value looks to be his batting average, as since being traded to Toronto in the middle of the 2015 season, he has batted a combined .250. In his heyday, Tulo approached .300 each and every season, and his counting stats looked better in unison with that higher average. Whether it be injuries or a lack of Coors Field, this is simply not the same player who was the number one guy in the 2015 rankings. No longer quite so dependable and still every bit as fragile, Tulo’s not nearly as appealing in fantasy as he used to be, though his single-season upside rivals anyone on this list.

12) Jean Segura, Seattle Mariners (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 27)

If you want the representation of an inconsistent start to a career, Jean Segura may be your guy. It’s hard to believe he’s still 26, and he hit a peak last year when he led the National League in hits to go along with a career-high 20 home runs. This offseason, he was traded to Seattle, a major downgrade in terms of ballpark for a hitter from his previous digs in Arizona. Besides the slight downtick because of that ballpark change, however, you should be all in on Segura. His struggles after his strong 2013 season can be partially attributed to the extremely tragic passing away of his son in July 2014. Without his mind in the game, I suspect he would have struggled. Segura’s ability has never been in doubt, and there is no reason to think that he can’t put up similar numbers to last year, save for power. If others want to sell because he moved to Seattle, you should gladly buy.

13) Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 20)

This guy played 97 games in his rookie season and hit 27 home runs. His OPS was .909. Could you consider some of that Coors inflated? Sure, but he’s also not leaving Coors anytime soon. Story has the potential to hit close to 40 home runs with some speed at a premium position, an upside that could land him in the top-5 of this list if he meets it next season. I’d say that’s a guy worth targeting in your dynasty league, especially since I haven’t even mentioned yet that he’s 24.

14) Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 8)

If you’re risk-averse, Brandon Crawford is the route to go. You can expect upwards of 80 runs batted in, along with double digit homers and relatively low strikeout totals, from Brandon Crawford. There is still a bit of a bias against him from the days that he was glove-only and not at all worth owning for fantasy purposes, but he has turned himself into a starter-quality shortstop. He doesn’t have a ton of long-term upside, but he keeps improving, so he’s not devoid of it either. You can feel safe picking up Brandon Crawford for your squad; you also start well on the path to your team having the best flow in your league.

15) Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 18)

For the risk-happy, Tim Anderson is the route to go. His strikeout-walk stats last year were as follows: 117 strikeouts to only 13 walks, that all coming in 99 games. He struck out more than once a game and barely walked; his OBP was only .306. However, it has always been about power and speed with Anderson; he hit 9 home runs and stole 10 bases in his action last year, and has the potential for more, 15/15 or 20/20, as he matures. Anderson is the type of guy you should target if you’ve already got a shortstop you trust. As a starting shortstop, Anderson is a huge risk, but as a guy waiting in the wings, you’ve got a solid option to step in should he reach his full potential.

16) Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 26, Previous Rank: NR)

Aledmys Diaz was never supposed to be able to hit, as evidenced by the fact that he didn’t even find himself in the top 50 last offseason. However, a .300 batting average, .369 OBP, and 17 home runs will change things, and if anything this ranking is a bit low. It all depends if you believe in Diaz; if you do, you should pursue him aggressively, because those are some seriously strong numbers. There is reason to be skeptical, as no scout ever thought Diaz had this in him, but he’s a strong looking kid with a fast bat and a smooth swing, and he should be able to at least partially replicate these good numbers. His cost still might be somewhat low, so check in and see if you can get a starting shortstop on the cheap.

17) J.P. Crawford, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 11)

I, for one, have never been sure what to make of J.P. Crawford. It’s clear that Crawford will provide more value for his real-life team rather than for what he provides for our fantasy teams. However, I’ve also seen him play, and I’ve seen a very athletic guy with all the casual movements of a star in the making. The name that keeps coming to my head is Francisco Lindor, whose numbers screamed that he wouldn’t hit but whose movements screamed that he would. While Crawford isn’t a guy I’d be buying, I probably wouldn’t trade him either, as I’d rather wait it out than figure out I got ripped off for a superstar.

18) Amed Rosario, New York Mets (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 47)

If I had to pick one guy outside of the top-ten on this list who could occupy a top-five spot next year, it would be Amed Rosario. In 2016, he hit .309 at High-A and, upon promotion, hit .341 at Double0A. While only hitting 5 homers combined, everyone says he has the body that will grow into power; it might not even matter if he keeps his batting average where it is. I’m not sure if I’ve read anything but rave reviews of Rosario anywhere on the internet, which is almost impossible when you consider the way people like to spew their minds online. Honestly, if you’re still reading this, you must have missed my first sentence of this blurb; go read it again, go trade for Rosario, and just thank me later.

19) Franklin Barreto, Oakland A’s (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 24)

There’s some thought in scouting circles that Franklin Barreto will soon be an outfielder, not because of his ability but because Oakland may need him in the outfield sooner; he’s certainly ready at the dish. 94 strikeouts last year in 479 at-bats, mostly in Double-A, is an awfully impressive tally for a 20 year old who hit 25 doubles and 10 homers in that same Double-A stint. Another player who exhibits potential for more power, Barreto is a bat you already wouldn’t mind having in your lineup, and can’t even drink alcohol in this country yet. This is another guy I would be all-in on.

20) Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 28)

Some of you out there may have read the first sentence to Amed Rosario’s paragraph and assumed I was talking about this guy. I wasn’t, as I am not quite as high on Torres as most, but you can certainly see him oozing potential as well. Bat speed, foot speed, and a baseball body that would make the old-school scouts drool are some of Torres’ biggest calling cards. I just worry about his propensity to strike out a bit much, even in just High-A, where he spent all of last season. Talent will shine through, and I expect Torres to become a good player, but he offers more real-life than fantasy-value, which is why this consensus top-10 prospect won’t make the top-15 on this list.

Comments by Jake Devereaux and Billy Heyen

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The Author

Ben Diamond

Ben Diamond

Ben is an annoyingly enthusiastic fantasy baseball player and Yankees fan, and he writes about those passions at The Dynasty Guru and Pinstripe Alley. There's a 95% chance he's ranting about Michael Pineda right now.

34 Comments

  1. Michael
    January 31, 2017 at 12:44 pm — Reply

    My apology for nitpicking, but Dansby Swanson was the #1 pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks and traded to the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller. Good write up though. I too am targeting Amed Rosario while everyone else is scrambling for Gleyber Torres

    • January 31, 2017 at 1:13 pm — Reply

      Right you are. Fixed, thank you!

      • January 31, 2017 at 2:21 pm — Reply

        Michael, you might want to rethink that on chasing Rosario. Rosario is a high-average singles hitter ranked mostly for his defensive prowess. He has no power and isn’t going to grow into any worth mentioning. If you want a good average and great defense, go for it. Last time I looked, defense didn’t mean jack in fantasy.

        • January 31, 2017 at 2:48 pm — Reply

          MLB.com says Rosario has average power that could increase as he fills out his projectable frame. BP says he has also has average power. Oh, an Keith Law at ESPN says he “should eventually hit 15-20 home runs.” That’s not no power. Couple that with a plus bat and potentially elite speed, and you’re looking at a special player who is easily a top-10 overall *fantasy* prospect.

          • February 1, 2017 at 12:51 am

            Singles hitter, high average. Plus-plus defender. I’ll pass.

        • Michael
          February 1, 2017 at 2:00 pm — Reply

          Sounds like Fransico Lindor 2.0 who many stayed away from for the same reasons you state with Rosario. Those who bought into Lindor paid a much lower price than others paid for the more highly-hyped prospects, and so reaped a greater profit. Will Rosario end up with success similar to Lindor? No idea, but you can pursue whichever prospects you like, and I’ll chase the ones I like. With two 1st place, three 2nd place and a 4th place finish in my 18-team dynasty roto league over the last 9 seasons (also a 6th and two 14th place finishes in “decimated by injury” seasons) I’m pretty comfortable with my fantasy ability to evaluate fantasy talent, thank you very much.

          • February 5, 2017 at 12:47 pm

            You’re the king man.

          • Michael
            February 6, 2017 at 11:53 am

            I was a big fan of Dave Kingman growing up. As a 10-year old Cubs fan in 1979 I thought he was the shizz

        • robbyrobdu
          February 18, 2017 at 4:31 pm — Reply

          Jean Segura had no power to speak of as well…and he was never as touted as Rosario. He sits 12.

          This is a Dynasty site, most dynasties are deep (er).

          It is very nice to have a power hitting SS…but they are few and far between.

          Even is Rosario ONLY profiled as and high average defensive whiz…wait, breaks, singles hitter? He isn’t James Lonely lol what does that even mean, he has plus speed, he will surely hit plenty of doubles and triples…stats, along with OBP/OPS that many leagues count.

          So back to the beginning of the last paragraph even if he ONLY profiles as a high average, defensive stud (READ, PLAYING TIME AND STAYS AT SHALLOW POSITION) “singles hitter”…he will contribute enough SBs and on the Average side while filling a tough position to be a plus asset.

          Considering he is only really now starting to rise, and is 21…do you really think the cost to get him outweighs the upside? Because like 95% of other SS he doesn’t hit 30 HR?

  2. January 31, 2017 at 2:18 pm — Reply

    Tulowitzki ranked ahead of Trevor Story? You’re out of your freaking mind.

    • January 31, 2017 at 2:53 pm — Reply

      Everyone from the Rodgers-to-Story group was incredibly close, and any order for those four is justifiable. That said, I’m going to take the guy who is a great bet for above-average production, and has an MVP ceiling in an awesome lineup and ballpark, over someone who struck out a third of the time last season and probably had the best year of his career in 2016. Story could, and probably will, be very good, but he also has considerable risk and, given the power uptick last season, isn’t as valuable as you might expect.

      • February 1, 2017 at 12:54 am — Reply

        Yeah and a broken down old Tulo who hasn’t had 500 at-bats in seven years is worth betting on. You’re crazy. Not. A. Chance. I’ll take Story all day long and twice on Sunday over him.

        • February 1, 2017 at 1:01 am — Reply

          And where did I ever mention Brendan Rodgers? I said Tulo. You ranked Tulo ahed of Story. Yet you explained your ranking by changing my question somehow to being about Brendan Rodgers. I know full well who Brendan Rodgers is. But I’m yet to hear one reason why Tulo is better and more deserving than Story. That’s because he’s not and we both know it. Old. Used. Hasbeen. I’ll pass but you bet on him and see how you do.

          • Calliou
            February 1, 2017 at 2:39 am

            Just chill out, man.

          • February 1, 2017 at 7:54 am

            I’m not really sure what you’re talking about, sorry. I said everyone from the “Rodgers-to-Story” group was close, because all four of those players were close, and then went on to explain why I’d choose Tulo over Story. There’s a reason why Tulo’s been ranked first and third overall the past two seasons, and the talent that got him to those spots remain intact. Both are risky, but Tulo’s floor and ceiling for the next couple years both remain much higher than Story’s, and Story’s power edge isn’t as significant as one may think, in fantasy,

      • February 1, 2017 at 9:10 pm — Reply

        So are you saying Colorado, with CarGo, Blackmon, LeMahieu, and Desmond along with Coors Field isn’t an awesome lineup and awesome park? LOL And Torronto without Encarnacion and with a tired, running out of steam Bautista is not near the lineup you seem to think. But I’ll just agree to disagree with you. Maybe we can revisit this in August or September!

        • February 9, 2017 at 9:22 pm — Reply
          • February 10, 2017 at 10:07 am

            Yes, because all rankings should be the same. That wouldn’t destroy the point of different sets of rankings *at all*. But if you’re going to start bringing up dynasty rankings from other sites, here’s this one from Baseball Prospectus and our fearless leader, Bret Sayre: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31137. I’m more conservative on Story, and that’s perfectly fine, it’s called having differing opinions.

          • February 10, 2017 at 12:15 pm

            Have to add some stats/metrics…
            Story K% and BB% improved every month
            He’s #1 in avg HR+FB dist by 10ft (except Moss)
            Exit velo is plus
            There’s more. Story looks solid.
            That said, Tulo looks a little unlucky to me and should improve on last season.
            Tulo will steal 0-5
            Story 15+
            OBP leagues will be even there but Tulo may have a bump in BA.
            The Rockies lineup will chase records meaning counting will tilt to Story side.
            Now, a huge factor is that it’s dynasty. This isn’t for 2017. It I offered my Story for his Tulo, the league may send a few hate mails

          • February 11, 2017 at 8:28 pm

            It’s cool Ben. I just wanted to further validate my position. I’m fine with you sticking up for you selection. You’re definitely more grounded on Story than most people and that’s a smart, conservative approach.

            I guess my biggest disagreement is because this is a dynasty website. Sure, Tulo may be better than Story this year as that’s entirely possible any year. But when it comes to dynasty and we’re talking 7-8 years or more out, I believe Story deserves a higher ranking and his career will be stronger. Your ranking feels like a one-year league ranking of sorts.

            Thanks for the response!

    • robbyrobdu
      February 18, 2017 at 4:46 pm — Reply

      I was in a dynasty 2 years ago where I traded Matz for Tanaka and was told the same thing…I was laughed at (and I am a Mets fan).

      I also traded a bum I can’t even remember for Teheran the same day. I practically got kicked out of the league for these reasons. Because these guys all belonged to the same groupthink.

      Story is what we call a sell-high. He has holes in his swing and is a below average defender…a lot like Desmond who for one reason you bring people as being some kind of like protection? LoL

      Story may grow into being a hitter, but many players have borderline inexplicable hot streaks, and this is one.

      When he eventually has to try and be a super-utility or most likely 1B platoon player….or worse, away from Coors as a DH…his inability to put the bat on the ball won’t matter as much as he is no Russell Brannan or Adam Dunn.

  3. Rich
    February 1, 2017 at 10:29 am — Reply

    When he was signed, scouts thought Rosario projected to have above average power. So there’s a chance average power is selling him short. Time will tell, but he is an extremely interesting player either way and I’m investing. If I had to pick one bust in the top ten, it would be Russell. The power is there, but I don’t see him ever hitting for a high average. I’d take Story over him. Similar profile, so give me the guy who hits at Coors. Good reading, this has become a deep position.

    • February 2, 2017 at 2:03 am — Reply

      Yeah, I would agree on Russell with you, too. Not that big on him personally. Maybe Rosario does “grow” into some power. I’ve heard and read all that too from every website. I’ll buy that part of it once I see it, though. I mean look at Brendan Rodgers. Nobody is saying he will “grow” into a power hitter. He’s already there. That’s kind of my point.

      • robbyrobdu
        February 18, 2017 at 4:36 pm — Reply

        People age and mature differently. Some people peak early…some people grow into abilities.

        Were you stronger at 21 than, say, 24-27?

        I know I wasn’t even close…nor was I as quick, or good at anything athletically…

    • robbyrobdu
      February 18, 2017 at 4:49 pm — Reply

      Well, Russell is a borderline lush defender and Story is below average…I’ll take the guy in the younger and better lineup, with more speed, who is a much better hitter for contact (Story’s contact does not worry you?!?!?) and can stick at SS. And is younger.

      • Rich
        February 18, 2017 at 6:29 pm — Reply

        Russell is the much better hitter for contact? He hit .238 last year, so not sure exactly what you’re basing that off of? As for the defense, unless you playing weird leagues where fielding percentage matters, that’s irrelevant. I’d take Story over Russell any day and don’t think it’s that close.

      • February 18, 2017 at 7:59 pm — Reply

        Russell and Story had the same BB% and ct%.
        Story hits more FB and LD.
        Story saw 4.27 P/PA to lead all SS while Russell was at 3.90, so both approaches are patient.
        Russell for the 2nd year in a row has a huge IFFB% which is contributing to his low BABIP.
        Story hits the ball on avg 3mph harder at 91+.
        Story was #1 in avg HR+FB distance which correlates with HF/FB%.
        Story speed score is 1.5 over Russell per PG.
        If you don’t believe in Story, that’s fine, but statistically guys like Russell don’t hold up,
        Story increased his Bb and ct every month. His K went down every month.
        the CHC lineup is not better than the Rockies, especially with Desmond and Dahl added from Opening Day. Or, the difference is negligible at best.
        It’s literally harder to argue Story is not real than to go with the metrics of a fuTure TTO guy w/speed.
        I’m not saying your wrong because Puig’s 1st 162 games was as good on paper as it was in 5x5s, just saying there’s a reason Story kept hitting after the 1st 2 weeks.

        • February 18, 2017 at 8:06 pm — Reply

          I’m only discussing and Story in the 3-4 range in drafts after 2/3 of a season is very aggressive. I only believe the baseball skills were underrated by the scouting community. The Rockies did trade Tulo and although everyone talking Rockies trades, they’ve proved otherwise.

  4. Rich
    February 5, 2017 at 2:19 pm — Reply

    Fair enough. i think he develops plenty of gap power at least, which means extra base hits. Time will tell, I’ve seen people on both sides of the fence here. Some give him a higher ceiling than Swanson, other aren’t nearly as excited about him. Rodgers is another animal. If he does stick at Shortstop, he is the one guy with a legit shot at joining the Correa and Seager tier.

  5. Davis
    February 6, 2017 at 7:19 pm — Reply

    I am a little surprised by your low Trevor Story dynasty rank. Looking at this group I would think he is a top 10, and maybe even top 6. Baez will retain his eligibility for a year, but should settle in at 2B (thus not much future at SS for dynasty purposes).

    I think Story will be better than Baez, Russell and Swanson regardless (yeah, better than Segura too). A SS with “40 HR potential”, should be ranked a bit higher than 13, right?

    *Hopefully* the guy who has Story in our 12 team – 10 player keeper league leaves Story unprotected in favor the other guys you list, but I don’t see that happening.

    On a side note, I’d like to win my league again THIS YEAR. I have Bregman and Beltre. Only keeping one. What is your opinion of Bregman matching Beltre’s numbers in 2017? Is Bregman a future star which would justify keeping him regardless of 2017 numbers?

  6. February 7, 2017 at 7:16 am — Reply

    Tim Anderson ceiling seems to include more than 20 SB. The approach takes away from the SB I understand, but he has ++spd w/an aggressive approach on the bases.
    I Villar and Anderson hit the ball much harder on average than Peraza, Dee, Billy and Trea.
    I have an offer if Anderson for my Giolito in a 15Tm dynasty where I need SP with Villar and Story as my SS/MI. I am light on SB but Giolito was my attempt at an ace.
    Ceiling of 20/20 makes me go back to the research.

    • robbyrobdu
      February 18, 2017 at 4:58 pm — Reply

      Vehemently disagree that Villar or Anderson hit the ball harder than Trea. Comparable yes…you group Turner with slap hitter and that is not the case.

      As to your question, Giolito has best pitcher in baseball upside…if this guy loves Anderson try for more…otherwise I do this deal personally.

      • February 18, 2017 at 6:18 pm — Reply

        Your right, Villar and Trea are at 90mph avg EV while the slap guys are a few mph lower. I was looking at something else my bad.

  7. DR Seelig
    March 19, 2017 at 9:34 pm — Reply

    Really appreciate the analysis you all do. I am currently struggling with a scenario where I am rebuilding after contending for years with a very strong team in my dynasty league. I’d like to retool quickly and be contending within a few years. I have a solid core of youngsters in Arenado, Story, A. Diaz, Urias, several top prospects like Torres, Devers, and about 15 other top 100 guys. I have a chance to acquire Machado but it would be at the price of Cutch, Cano, Salazar. One the surface it seems steep, but given that I am at my roster limits it seems when I am ready to contend in 2-3 years I would have another 1st round talent to pair with the above listed guys, just looking for some feed back on the price.

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