I’m a sucker for two things when it comes to dynasty basketball prospects – efficiency and sexy defensive stats. If players are efficient, they’re more likely to get playing time and put up stats. Sexy defensive stats make for a high floor, because the player can be deployed as a useful specialist at minimum.
That’s why when I saw the ease and versatility with which Willy Hernangomez scores and the pace with which Richaun Holmes blocks shots and steals basketballs, I new I had to rip off the baseball writer’s “Digging for Diamonds” column.
Indeed, it does require some digging to find these two on anyones watch list. They only average about 30 minutes per game combined right now, but both have flashed per minute numbers that have piqued my interest.
When a blue chip prospect such as Karl Anthony Towns plays well, we can be reasonably sure that his production is a legitimate reflection of his true talent. On the other hand, when less heralded prospects break out it can be harder to trust their production will hold long term. Here’s my take on some recent lottery picks without the “can’t miss” tag attached to them enjoying career years.
Age: 20 (21 in March)
Rookie WARP projection: 2.6 (8th in 2015-2016 draft class)
CARMELO 5-Year forecast: $50.7M (“Up-And-Comer”)
9-Cat Fantasy Ranking: 12th
Turner had a solid if unspectacular rookie year in 2015-2016, flashing a fantasy friendly skill set including a 95th percentile block rate. Despite falling to 11th overall in the draft, there had been a consensus view among scouts and the stat heads that he was an easy top ten pick in a top heavy draft. I ranked Turner 54th in my inaugural #Dynasty200 back in October. I thought that was aggressive at the time, but Turner has since broken out, hitting the high end of his potential outcomes.
The Toronto Blue Jays are going to have a rough time replacing Edwin Encarnacion after losing him to the Cleveland Indians in free agency. In 2017, they may be able to cover first with some combination of Justin Smoak, Steve Pearce, and maybe Kendrys Morales. Perhaps that potpourri of bats can be used somewhat effectively, but it’s not an incredible, solid, long-term solution. Luckily for the Jays, that amalgamation might just need to avoid disaster until 21-year-old prospect Rowdy Tellez is ready for the big leagues. If Tellez can keep up what he’s been doing, that day might come sooner rather than later. Continue reading
For those who do not know me, I have had the pleasure of writing for The Dynasty Guru for a little over a month now. I am doing a series on sleepers, breakouts, and post-hype candidates at each of the main prospect positions (catchers, middle infielders, corner infielders, center fielders, corner outfielders, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers). Here are some quick links to the posts that have already been published:
Here are five middle-infielders who could rediscover their prospect shine from years past by taking advantage of the opportunities they should be given in the upcoming season to become cornerstones of your future dynasty. Continue reading
Last week I wrote about a few pitchers that could see serious regression in 2017 due to their inflated strand rates. As a follow-up, I wanted to touch on some guys that could see substantial improvement in their numbers if their ability to leave runners on base bounces back to around even league average. Without further ado, the thrilling conclusion to “Using Strand Rates to Snag Value”: Using Strand Rates to Snag Value 2: The Awakening (Ok, that may be overselling just a touch). Continue reading
Major leaguers lacking in either draft or minor league pedigree can be hard to gauge from a fantasy perspective. When these types of players pop up, they are often widely ignored or disregarded as fluky. They are also not discussed as often in analytical circles. Today we will look at a September stalwart and an unlikely top-5 Rookie of the Year finisher to see if they can make the leap into fantasy relevance.