The Top 200 Dynasty Basketball Rankings – October 2016
EDIT: Please see updated rankings here.
Welcome, to the inaugural #Dynasty200, fantasy hoops fans! If you’re reading this you already know that fantasy basketball is arguably the best fantasy sport. It’s a happy medium between high variance fantasy football, where the best team usually loses to the field, and the relative predictability of fantasy baseball where we can say things like “trust the back of the baseball card.”
These rankings are designed with head to head, nine category fantasy leagues in mind, but I will often note when a rotisserie league owner and/or 8 category owners might want to fade/increase rankings of players.
For example, Andre Drummond, due in part do his unwillingness to try underhanded free throws, will not be on many championship rotisserie league teams. His free throw percentage is just too poor to overcome in that format. However, he becomes a superstar as part of a “punt FT” h2h strategy in which owners seek out similar players discounted by their wart(s).
As for my methodology, I rely on non-equal parts experience, BasketballMonster.com historical rankings, PER (player efficiency rating), FiveThirtyEight.com’s CARMELO projections, Kevin Pelton Rookie WARP projections, ESPN’s rookie model, summer league performance, draft pedigree and genius. I try to have a balanced approach between future and present, but I prefer to set up dynasty owners with a chance to have a long run of success than narrow windows of contention.
I’ve taken to ranking players as part of tiers. The order indicates my preference, but in general i would call anyone traded from within a tier of similar overall value.
10/13 Edit: Joel Embiid is an omission and he’ll be included in the next list.
|Age and upside more than make up for the modest present value gap between him and Steph Curry.
|Combination of efficiency and volume is too impressive to rank any lower, but unrealistic to expect a repeat of last year with the addition of KD. Don’t forget about ankle injury risk.
|A reported two breaks in his right foot knocks him out of contention for an even higher ranking, but he’s without weakness in fantasy (besides turnovers, but deal with it, bruh..). Too good to worry about touches and playing time, particularly since the Warriors share the ball.
|What’s your risk tolerance? Has been a top 5 player per game for three straight years, but can’t seem to avoid injuries. He added 3’s to his game last year.
|A superstar who fills up the box score and rarely misses a game, but you’re probably forced to punt TO’s and FG% isn’t pretty.
|Fantasy’s most well-rounded game (about average or better in all 9 categories), but only played in (a career high) 72 games in 2015-2016.
|We got a brief look at Russ without KD in ’14-’15 and it was about the same overall production with slightly fewer assists and more points. Durability and consistency also an asset.
|I don’t think anyone knows what his ceiling is, but with this rank I say it’s much higher than what we’ve seen to date. Giannis may have the best chance to move into tiers one and two of anyone in the league. More 3’s, please, Giannis!
|The GOAT; I think we see fewer minutes and more DNPs as LeBron wisely puts it on cruise control during regular season.
|Unbelievable how seamlessly he returned to form after a horrific injury.
|Unlike past number one picks, Simmons’ has superstar approval of both scouts and advanced metrics. The foot injury will reportedly sideline him for months and adds to his risk profile.
|Pretty much does it all, but he’s a turnover assassin, which is tough to stomach from your center position. Would be great if he stayed healthier and played center full time along side a floor spacing 4 instead of another traditional big.
|As he does for the Dubs, Draymond gives fantasy owners a lot of ways to beat opponents each week in H2H leagues.
|An all-time great, CP3 remains remarkably efficient and I believe his game will age well enough to merit ranking above some much younger players.
|He just keeps on getting better; improved his PER for the third straight year. Has missed only seven games in his career.
|He held up well during his rookie year and flashed major fantasy upside due to his ability to block shots and make 3’s. Porzingis has a chance to become a fantasy superstar with expected improvement and more playing time, but if you can sell him for Jokic and collect a second meaningful trade chip as “profit” I’d consider that.
|Scoff at this ranking at your own peril. Long before Jokic arrived in the NBA he was a statistical darling forecasted to have superstar upside. What he did in limited minutes was no fluke.
|Unlike other “Punt FT” assets such as Dwight, Jordan and Drummond, you can win with Whiteside in roto leagues.
|Wiggins, who turned 21 in February, began to convert some of his incredible tools into production, averaging a cool 20.7 points per game. His block, steal and rebound rates (all about 50th percentile or worse) still leave much to be desired for someone with his athleticism and size. His range of outcomes still includes “superstar,” but it’s far from a guarantee.
|Russell (somehow in LA) quietly had an encouraging rookie year that calls for a forecast of an All-Star, which means that superstar is still within his reasonable range of outcomes. His rookie year numbers compared favorably to Wiggins when you consider he was a better play maker and defender. He’s a spot below Wiggins due to lesser present value, though I actually prefer him by a bit long-term.
|Drummond will still only be 23 when the season starts, but he hasn’t improved on a per minute basis since his rookie year (his PER peaked in ’13-’14). I think there’s another gear, including fixing his weirdly declining FG%. His ability to dominate blocks, steals, boards, FG% and TO’s gives him a major bump in H2H leagues, but you can fade him in roto leagues as it’s almost impossible to tank an entire category and win a competitive league.
|It was a disappointing year for Gobert who did not see improvement to his game that I can pick out in a box score. Still he is young, we saw more from him in limited minutes two seasons ago and he remains an elite punt FT player capable of dominant block, board and FG% contributions. Like Drummond, you can fade him in “roto” leagues, but for H2H I’m targeting as a buy low with Whiteside-esque upside.
|His efficiency and mpg went backwards last year, the latter was perhaps in an attempt to keep him healthy. This rank assumes he regains at least one of those two things, if not both.
|Seems to have peaked, not that there’s anything wrong with what he became.
|Rondo and Wade backcourt is not good for the volume or quality of his looks.
|Jordan ranks among the top five players for a punt FT strategy, so he’s a very dangerous weapon if deployed strategically. As prior, fade considerably for rotisserie league.
|Plenty to like – durable, doesn’t need the ball to score, in-prime. Rare to get above average turnover value from a starter who scores this much.
|Most of his gains were due to shooting percentage gains. Were those real or will he regress to career averages?
|10/4 Edit (omission): Lowrie returned top 15 9-category value for the second time in three seasons, but 2015-2016 was his most efficient fantasy season on a per minute and per game basis. Now 30 years old, most of his closest comps had fairly steep declines, so I would look to cash out before the fall comes unless you’re ultra confident in your ability to collect a championship ring this year.
|Noel made incremental progress, but may need a trade to reach his potential as Embiid and Okafor don’t exactly complement his game. Noel was a really good prospect by both the scouts and the numbers, which still matters as we project out how much growth remaining there is.
|Breakout star is exhibit A of why we should be patient with prospects with his pedigree (especially when they can shoot like he can). I question how much upside is left, but the floor is high for many years of production.
|Favors and Gobert help the Jazz D, but both would benefit from the other getting traded.
|A rare “three and D” big man, Serge’s usage, rebounding, block rate and efficiency declined for the second consecutive year leading me to question whether he has lost some athleticism.
|Will this be the year that Blake becomes a legit threat from 3? DeAndre limits his upside on the glass, but no big man can match his playmaking skills (nearly 5 dimes/game!) which makes him a unique H2H big.
|Doesn’t shoot enough to hurt your FG% as much as you might think; category specialist can really help in boards, dimes and steals. I like him a lot, but wouldn’t everyone appreciate a trade out of Minnesota?
|Overall, I think move to OKC is lateral, but he’s had steady progress as a fantasy player in each year.
|Has missed half the season with injuries three times now, but tantalizing talent can do it all (including half a block/game as a guard!).
|Prototypical point-forward may have peaked, but I’ll take a few more years of fringe All-Star play from him.
|For those who say he’s been reduced to a glorified stretch big, consider that Love was the NBA’s second most efficient post scorer. I expect the Cavs to flow through Love more as they look to ease off LeBron.
|10/4 Edit: (omission): The ultra-efficient Thomas was a perfect fit on a defense-first Celtics team, which allowed him to reclaim his 30+ minutes per game without a dip in efficiency. Thomas is a bonafide liability on defense, which puts him at risk of returning to the super-sub 6th man role in any given year, but his ability to make plays and score the rock makes him a safe bet to return top 30-40 value for the next couple years.
|Good time to move him in 9-cat leagues coming off a season in which the knee held up. I’m expecting across the board incremental decline this year.
|Should continue to share the court with floor spacing bigs (Olynyk and Jerebko); threat of a third shoulder injury remains.
|I expect his usage to increase without Horford, but spacing will suffer with Dwight on the court. Sell if you’re not contending.
|I do not know what the heck the Magic are doing bringing in Serge and talking about Gordon as a SF, but I’m staying patient. He was already really good when he played, he could rocket up these rankings in a year.
|Rare to find a big with his touch from the line. Can he hold up for 70+ games again?
|Tough offseason for Vuc who now has to compete with Biyombo (and Ibacka, to a lesser extent) for minutes.
|With Pau spacing better than TD, I wonder if LMA can improve his efficiency in year two.
|Dunn isn’t my second favorite rookie prospect long-term (that would be Bender), but at 22 he is ready to roll right now and he has a very fantasy friendly profile with a sky-high assist rate and steal rate in college.
|Let’s start with the warts – as someone with a reputation as a stud shooter he shot a modest 34.3% from 3 and while the playmaking was impressive, it also came with with the turnover rate of a point guard. Lastly, he wasn’t an overwhelming prospect coming out of college. With all that said, Booker’s top comps include KD, Melo and Kobe Bryant.
|If you’re in to upside, LaVine has a profile of someone who could fill up a box score as he can create his own shot, knock down 3’s and he’s a decent play maker (though he’s no traditional point guard). We know the dude is athletic, but like many young prospects he still has to figure out how to be a good team defender to ensure the star-player minutes we want from him.
|Smart was an elite (Simmons-esque by the numbers) prospect and whether his defensive prowess actually earns him All-Star trips (fans tend to favor scoring) he has a decent chance to develop into a star for patient owners. I know the shooting numbers were poor, but we’re paying for what he is going to do in the future in dynasty.
|Discount Kawhi Leonard?
|Steady, all-around contributor is among the best in the business at taking care of the rock.
|I’m a Bradley Beal “Truther” so naturally I think there’s more development left in his game, but those injuries are a pain, man.
|Smooth, scoring PF has an impressive array of moves and the type of ability to generate his own offense that screams “potential All-Star.” To realize his fantasy and his real life potential the guy needs to expand his range and tighten up his defense. 25% from 3 is not going to cut it.
|Bender graded out as an even better prospect than Porzingis and while that doesn’t mean he’ll pan out or be better, it does mean his ceiling is just as high or higher.
|Turner was exactly what the Pacers were hoping for – a young, athletic rim protector. He had an elite block rate, a really good rebound rate and the Pacers defended much better when he was on the court.
|All-around contributor was quietly a turnover machine a season ago, but it came with a career best 5.8 assists per game.
|Not a great fit on a team that lacks spacing, but still managed his usual well-rounded fantasy game and suited up most nights.
|Porter, who just turned 23 this June, had a baby breakout in Washington that many may have missed because he doesn’t stand out in any one category. A high-end prospect out of college, it’s reasonable to expect further gains but fantasy owners might settle for more playing time.
|Gasol noticeably declined last year, but his diverse skill set should allow him to remain productive for many more years.
|Buy, buy, buy. The hope is that he’s a less volatile Ron Artest. Amazing defender has a floor as an elite steals specialist that will contribute in blocks and boards.
|Dieng has really surprised as a scorer and play maker. He has a nice touch and I would hope he returns this year with 3 point range.
|Jrue was treated with kid gloves for much of the year, limiting him to just 28 mpg. I am expecting more this season.
|He should put up stats as the starter in the short-to-medium term (which is why he ranks this highly), but careful to project stardom or many years of studliness. Schroder’s game did not improve as much last year as you’d expect from a future All-Star and he has not defended well (yet).
|I think we’ve seen the best from him, but credit to him for dramatically improving his efficiency.
|Ingram’s statistical pedigree as a prospect leave much to be desired if you’re expecting stardom (his 2.9 WARP projection was somewhere between Muddiay’s and Myles Turner’s for reference). I assume I’ll be among the “low guys” on Ingram so you won’t get him at this price.
|Valanciunas has made steady improvements every year he’s been in the league and has become a highly effective scorer due to his size and touch. Will this be the year he cracks 30 mpg?
|Elite defender racks up defensive fantasy stats on a per minute basis, but must be deployed on a punt FT team. If he starts, expect gaudy stats.
|Harris struggled as a rookie, but got back on target in year two to become a legit starting SG. Turns 22 in September.
|Now that he doesn’t have to share time with Dennis Schroder, Teague has a chance to become the top 30 type he was prior to last year.
|Rondo with more size still seems like a good fantasy comp, though I’d project more 3’s (not that that’s saying much) and fewer dimes. Get excited, punt FT owners.
|At 26 years old Jackson did what ex-Thunder guards do and broke out elsewhere, posting a career high 19.62 PER (his fourth consecutive season of improvement).
|Duncan, Diaw and Boban departures pave the way for plenty of minutes and usage. Still so good, even at his age.
|Harris’ efficiency as a shooter has improved every year since 2012-2013 and he saw increased usage in Detroit.
|Fournier will get the keys to the car in Orlando with Oladipo in OKC and it’ll be fun to see what he can do with another year of seasoning.
|With the way he defends I don’t think Spo’ will be able to take him off the court, but the offense is a work in progress and it might be a couple of years before he starts cracking top 50’s.
|Yes, Okafor’s game is better suited for the last decade, he plays with a bunch of lane-clogging bigs, and his defense was a nightmare which could limit his playing time over the next decade.. BUT he’s still going to put up healthy fantasy numbers for a long time wherever he ends up. Some risk he becomes Jonas Valanciunas and never gets big minutes despite scoring ability.
|Tough to find wings that can provide the volume of counting stats that Gay does; has become more selective as a member of the Kings, but he’s in decline.
|Attacking combo guard didn’t progress as much as his per game numbers imply, but progress isn’t always linear.
|Post-peak at 30, but Dragic is much better with the rock in his hands. With Wade gone, I think he can bounce back closer to his Phoenix-level days where he topped out as 9-cat’s 25th overall player in 13-14.
|An aggressive ranking. Ultra productive wing was a “late bloomer” which means his chance to become a star, historically, are lower than his draft pedigree implies.
|Mirotic shot 39% from 3 last year and, at just 25, has all the makings of a stretch 4. Can he hold off Bobby Portis, though?
|Discount Jimmy Butler will miss most of, if not all of the 2016-2017 season. Makes for a great target for a rebuilding team.
|Once a closet 9-cat fringe star (he finished 14th overall in ’14-’15!) Green’s shooting ability abandoned him last year. Upside doesn’t always come in the form of a 21-year-old… Green’s shooting numbers should bounce back, and even if they do not, we know his floor is basically a top 100 player due to his excellent real life/fantasy defensive contributions.
|Zeller’s true shooting percentage has rocketed from 49.8% as a rookie to 59% last year. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t come back with the 3 pointer in his arsenal. He’ll be 24 in October and has room for more growth as a player and playing time wise in the future.
|Credit Kanter for returning 61st overall value last year in just 21 mpg, which speaks to his fantasy upside if the playing time improves, and it could dramatically with KD and Ibaka gone. Be prepared to get more aggressive if it looks like he can get 28 minutes per game or more.
|Plenty of good ball left in the tank, but I’d sell before the decline comes.
|Adams had a career year, including a breakout postseason. With the exodus of Serge and KD, it’s easy to imagine him becoming a high end punt FT asset in short order.
|Dwight remains a good “punt FT” player, though the turnovers in 9 cat are painful. DO NOT DRAFT in roto!
|Has a chance to become a top 50 player once again with more with more PT in Memphis. For some reason Parsons is a pretty poor FT shooter, which hurts his fantasy value.
|Despite playing with all-time scorers, play makers and floor spacers, Barnes could not improve his shooting efficiency last year. He’s just 24, so there’s time for further improvement..
|Game has aged remarkably well, particularly for 9 cat fantasy as he keeps his mistakes to a minimum, but the wheels can fall off quickly at his age.
|Are you a risk taker? To give you an idea of the variance you can expect, CARMELO (fivethirtyeight.com) comps include busts such as Dujuan Wagner and Sebastian Telfair, but also Russell Westbrook and Mike Conley.
|A tall “combo guard” who rated among the better prospects in the draft by consensus. I’m slightly meh on him due to the lack of athleticism statistics (boards, blocks, steals), but he could be a good scorer.
|He’s a poor fit with Boogie Cousins, but Cauley-Stein looks like a safe, high-floor defense-first center.
|Another year, another season of missed games from a player that is a fringe 9-cat star when on the court.
|As long as he continues to get starter’s minutes he’s an elite category specialist, which wins matchups in H2H. Trade asap if you’re not a contender as his game does not win games in real life, which could impact his future PT.
|Evans made a career high 38.8% of his three pointers last year, a skill set he would do well to focus on as his athleticism will no doubt begin to taper off after all the foot ailments he’s had.
|May not get the same usage in Indiana, but we buy Thad for the athletic counting stats and low TO’s.
|Had a breakout sophomore season and looks to be the long-term starter offensively, but limited play making skills plus so-so athletic stats make for a somewhat limited fantasy profile.
|Bombs Away Bob (a nickname exactly no one calls him) launched 7.2 threes per game last year, but his PT is at risk with Simmons and Dario Saric in the fold. If there’s more (positive) clarity around his role, feel free to move him up these rankings. EDIT: Injury to Simmons qualifies as a positive development for his role.
|Solid defender at a young age and he can shoot? Sounds like a cheap future starter to me.
|A lot of his value comes from low turnovers, but he’s turned himself into an elite 3 and D player and those types get PAID (and playing time).
|MCW has seen his dynasty stock come crashing down since his rookie year, but he’s developed into a really good real life and fantasy stat defensive player while improving his shooting numbers. He has such a unique skill set with his size and passing ability that I think he can carve out a productive starting role on the right team.
|If Tristan can get back to the 31.6 mpg he played in ’13-’14 then, combined with his improved scoring efficiency, he could be back on the map as more than just a rebounding specialist.
|Clarkson did not improve any of his scoring metrics last year, and given his modest pedigree as a prospect, I am pessimistic about further future development.
|Low mistake, game manager-type is what he is, as they say (lazily).
|Boring in real life and fantasy, but RoLo is an asset in both %’s and very consistent.
|How much does Ian Mahinmi cut into Gortat’s playing time? Efficiency was already slipping. If PT is where it was last year, he’s a great win-now piece.
|It’s reasonable to expect some positive regression for Noah, but he’s not a great long-term bet. Upside is there given diverse skill set and unique passing ability.
|Wade surprised the fantasy community with 74 games played and a career best 79.3% from FT, but his real life and fantasy game is in steep decline. The volume of overall stats is still there to help H2H matchups.
|I’ll probably die alone on the Kyle Anderson “truther” hill. He’s more than just a summer league hero, IMO. I think he can be a starter by next year and he costs almost nothing.
|Per minute monster may not have the modern NBA big man game necessary to earn more playing time.
|A premiere defender, Bradley had something of a breakout year offensively, but his usage dipped for the second consecutive year. I think there’s room for more incremental growth, but not much upside left.
|KCP has developed into a two way player and at 23, I think there’s room for further development. Shot a career low from 3, but TS% was up.
|Anderson and D’Antoni are a match made in fantasy heaven, but be advised his 3PT accuracy has not been the same in recent years.
|There’s upside here as Hezonja’s overall shooting was quite promising for a 21-year-old and we know he is a good athlete, but he needs to learn to draw more fouls.
|Looks to be a starting point guard once again. Excellent percentages for a guard, but lacking as a playmaker.
|One of the game’s deadliest shooters, Redick is a rare 3PT specialist that is actually an asset to FG%. As we saw with Dunleavy and Korver (pardon the race comps), shoot-only guys can slip quickly.
|The landing spot is rough, but he consistently rates as one of the better prospects regardless of whether you ask scouts or “stat heads.”
|Carroll battled health issues and forgot how to make any shots inside the three point line. He can still be a poor-man’s Trevor Ariza 3 and D fantasy role player, but I don’t think ‘Atlanta Carroll’ is coming back at his age.
|The hope is that he emerges into the kind of D-first player Hollis-Jefferson is now, with more offensive skills.
|“3 and D” wing got paid; he played fewer than 28 mpg last year, so if he can get that up above 30 there’s top 50 upside.
|I can’t believe this guy went third overall… that’s the only reason he is ranked this highly. BAD statistical prospect pedigree more commonly found in a 2nd round pick.
|I’d steer clear in roto, but for H2H he can still give you plenty of ugly volume if you don’t care about the turnovers. Post All-Star stats were admittedly impressive ..
|Matthews is working on a six year streak of top 80 9-cat value, but his shooting numbers predictably tanked last year. Deserves some benefit of the doubt as it was his first year returning from achilles rupture, but he’s getting up there in age ..
|Barton shot a career-best 34.5% from 3 in a breakout campaign, but with Gallinari and Gary Harris in the mix he’ll probably be reduced to a reserve role.
|Davis ranks highly on this list due in part to his legitimacy as a prospect as someone who can potential space, defend and board, but also because the Grizz’ depth chart is old, so the opportunity is there. You can probably acquire for free because he was a 2nd round pick.
|Athletic combo guard can score, which is why he got paid, and should get fringe starter’s minutes at the 1 and 2.
|The 5th overall pick of the 2014 draft had a poor rookie year before tearing his ACL in August, 2015. He was always a high variance prospect due to the limited information we had on him, but I liked him as a prospect enough to make him a buy low target.
|Durable Monta may see the ball a lot less with Teague in town.
|The Nets may have not one, but two defensive aces on their team; McCullough’s steal rate was off the charts, which is consistent with what he did in college.
|I think Michael Jordan was hoping for better than 33.7% from 3 when they turned down a reported five 1st round picks from Boston to draft him.
|Len’s development stalled out last year, but Chandler’s sharp decline paves the way for a potential breakout year for Len, who only just turned 23.
|Should provide plenty of LOL’s, WTF’s and 3’s in Cleveland without turning over the rock.
|Limited info on this kid, but he showed a nice touch and motor in summer league and, given his draft pedigree, deserves consideration within the top 150.
|I’m a Kelly Olynyk guy, because he can basically do it all. He’s average or better as a play maker, shooter, rebounder and all defensive metrics.
|Sully will always be a bit of a long-term risk due to poor conditioning and the health concerns that caused him to fall on draft day, but I’m buying because I still see further upside, particularly if he can finally improve that stroke from 3 just a liiiitttle bit. He’s a more capable defender than people realize.
|With Westbrook and Oladipo both 2017 UFA’s, Payne’s path to playing time is clearer than it was a year ago. Anyone with his steal and assist rate should at least be owned in a deep keeper league and he makes for a nice stash for a rebuilding team. EDIT: I’m still not really fading much after injury news.
|Hugely disappointing season, but I’d prefer to give him one more look due to shooting touch we saw in ’14-’15.
|This ranking is more about the opportunity to play than my feelings about Hield’s long-term prospects, which are OK but not 6th overall pick good.
|I’ll lazily compare him as a prospect to Aaron Gordon as someone that scouts liked a lot more than the numbers due to the impressive athleticism that didn’t quite show up in the box score. It worked out for Gordon, but there’s plenty of bust risk.
|Zubac was a steal in the 2nd round and looks to have a chance to be the Lakers’ center of the future, with a chance to contribute right away. He has a nice touch and can block shots.
|Like many so-so big man draft prospects, Lyles’ ability to space the floor will dictate whether he’s a rotation piece or a starter. The early returns are promising, but his fantasy upside is limited by poor block/steal rates.
|Oft considered the “steal of the draft” by the Spurs (obviously), Murray is an intriguing prospect due to his elite size for a point guard and for fantasy because Parker and Mills are not starting caliber PG’s anymore. He may be more than just a nominal point guard too, as his assist rate was quite good.
|A stat darling as a prospect, Jones’ size limits his upside, particularly as a defender. As his college stats suggested they would be, his assist rate and steal rate were elite, so he remains on my radar as a high end stash.
|At this point of the rankings I prefer upside and Hernangomez has that as a big who can stretch the floor and rebound a bit, too.
|Plumlee hasn’t improved on his per minute efficiency since coming into the league, despite staying in a familiar fringe starter role, but his defensive numbers are so good at I wouldn’t be surprised to finally crack 30 mpg. If he can do that, he’s a really good punt FT player for very cheap.
|MKG played in just seven games last year, but color me intrigued by his shooting numbers in that limited sample. Don’t go crazy, though… we play fantasy and while he is an elite defender, he does not get steals.
|Block specialist can also provide help in dimes, FG% and turnovers. Don’t worry too much about the FT shooting, he takes about one per game.
|A defensive ace, Aminu is worth monitoring if he can maintain his 3 point shooting gains and develop into a stretch big capable of guarding 4’s and leaner 5’s.
|Once a 9-category legend due to ungodly efficiency, Korver got whacked in the face by father time last year as his shooting numbers went from all-time to just really good. I think he has another year or two left in the tank for 9-cat leagues, though.
|When healthy he is a top 100 9-cat point guard, but a lot of that value is derived from low turnover totals. Zero upside.
|Enjoy the numbers this year, MAYBE next year if the Nets don’t find a way to upgrade, but then say goodbye to Lin as a relevant fantasy player .
|In fantasy we don’t care about the bad contract. Mozgov should be useful short-term investment.
|Portis could push Mirotic for playing time this year at the 4. He’s already an excellent rebounder, but he threw up a lot of bricks.
|Vonleh has been a disappointment, but his age and pedigree merit monitoring his progress.
|So-so adjusted numbers, but opportunity is there… prefer more information.
|Good enough to start in deeper fantasy leagues as long as he has a starting role for the Mavs, but per minute efficiency declined for the third straight year (as you’d expecet from a 32-year-old).
|Can be a nice role player as a combo guard, especially in D’Antoni system. Has somewhat reinvented himself as a marksman.
|Marcus Morris’ best skill is the ability to knock down mid-range jumpers, which is great for him and bad for fantasy owners. I think we saw the best of him last year.
|If he can maintain his shooting numbers then he can be useful, but the wing spot is crowded in Portland.
|It’ll likely take an injury, a trade, or another year of seasoning for Dekker to get his opportunity. He’s still an interesting prospect.
|His teammate Julius Randle might have more upside, but Nance is more interesting to me as a 3 and D big. Good steal rate.
|Like many rookies, Sabonis will likely need both seasoning and the depth chart to thin out before he gets his chance. I’m not sure the athletic stats merit the long lead time to pay any more than this.
|As a stretch 4 Deng can still be a useful NBA player, but I have a feeling he will be a 3 in LA, which will hurt his fantasy efficiency.
|Worth monitoring because with a jump shot there’s starter ability here, due to his D.
|Singed to a one year deal to backup a point guard he is possibly better than. If he plays well he could re-emerge as a low-end starting PG again.
|I didn’t like Randle as a prospect and I don’t like what I saw last year. Talented dude, good rebounder, but if you can’t protect the rim you better stretch the floor, which he has not done (yet).
|Jefferson will now transition into high-end backup center, capable of abusing second units with his variety of post-moves. He hardly ever turns it over and he tends to make the most of his minutes, making him playable in deeper 9-category leagues.
|Zaza is a perfect fit in Golden State as a tough player who can make good decisions with the ball and knock down mid range jumpers.
|Still useful for points and boards, but impact days are long gone.
|Just a giant question mark due to health.. tough to use a roster spot on him.
|Hunter’s free throw shooting and college pedigree suggest there’s sneaky upside to become a really good shooter in the NBA.
|Middling prospect hasn’t done much, but the Wizards are thin so let’s watch him this summer and preseason. Very young.
|I doubt he’s more than a rotation player, but rookie year showed upside for more.
|Ridiculous TS% and rebound rate, but NBA execs seem to agree he is a reserve despite sky-high per minute effciency.
|Was not a fan of this pick, but the Hawks wing depth chart has a chance to thin out in a year’s time and they did burn a high pick on him, so he’ll get a chance.
|Found some relief in Washington, but not much more than a fill in at this point.
|As usual, if an injury strikes to a Bulls’ big, Taj is a nice player to own, but long term it’s hard to imagine much more value.
|Posted a career best 58.4 TS% with the Lakers and given his ability to score in bunches off the bench, seems locked in to a Jamaal Crawford-type role for the next couple of years.
|That’s now two straight years of 40% or better from 3 from Caspi, which should earn him fringe starters minutes and sneaky top 100 9 cat upside as long as he can keep that up.
|Wade Baldwin IV
|Baldwin has a chance to be a high-end playmaker and rack up dimes one day, but Conley blocks his path to PT. He has the size to play with Conley, though.
|He’ll need a trade out of Boston to matter, but Rozier is a real prospect capable of making a sophomore year jump, though I believe he was a considerable “reach” at pick 16 last year.
|Dimes are hard enough to come by that TP can still be a fantasy bench piece for us, but it’s probably over for him, folks.
|Dudley is an under-sized stretch four that can knock down 3’s and is reported to be a starter this year in Phoenix. He can help out this season, but he’s not a meaningful dynasty asset.
|Age, Alex Len have all but killed Chandler’s fantasy value.
|Qi’s age is uncertain, which makes his prospect pedigree unclear. What is clear is that the Rockets got a steal in round two and if he is as young as he says he is, a potential starter.
|A “tweener” who fouls too much and hasn’t extended his range enough yet, Johnson figures to remain a good bench player.
|Lee figures to return to the same “do-no-harm” 3 and D role we’ve grown accustomed to, which amounts to solid rates, very modest volume and a passable last starter in deep leagues.
|Davis remains an ultra-efficient scorer that teams do not trust with significant minutes due to his inability to protect the rim. He is a useful spot starter for punt FT teams.
|Defensive ace Ian Mahinmi may be better than the older Gortat, but they probably end up in a platoon with a little extra PT to the incumbent Gortat.
|Looney was your classic “potential lottery, fell due to injury, blah, blah, blah” player, so despite being a late 1st rounder, he’s a guy worth knowing.
|Henson has not endeared himself to coach Jason Kidd and it’s hard to blame him as he plays on a shooting-starved team. If it is going to happen, it’ll probably be somewhere else.
|The leap never came for Jeff Green, who is being paid like he’ll be the Magic’s starting SF.
|Warren’s path from good rotation to NBA starter will depend on his continued development of his 3 PT shot and defense. Nice PER for his age, but I’m fairly skeptical.
|Deep leagues only with all the talented bigs in Orlando.
|Zizic rated out much more highly by the numbers than with scouts (much like former Adriatic prospect Nikola Jokic). Likely a draft and stash for Boston, Zizic doesn’t offer anywhere near the upside that Jokic did and so he’s just a “follow” type, but you should follow him and be prepared to pounce in a couple years.
|I’m monitoring to see how playing time shakes out in Philly, but generally pessimistic.
|Another “follow” prospect, Nogueira rated very highly as a draft prospect and in limited time posted really excellent defense and rebounding numbers to go with the TS% you’d expect from someone who basically only dunks.
|A deep sleeper whose knees have betrayed him, Adams’ college pedigree was impressive. He profiled as someone who could score and collect steals in bunches.