The Top 250 Dynasty Football Rankings 4.0 – Week 3 Refresh
As always, these #Dynasty250 rankings are designed for 2QB and superflex leagues, so if you play in single quarterback league, fade the QB’s. Next, ask your commissioner if you can change the league to be a 2Qb league.
Whether you play redraft or dynasty, if you’re new to ZeroRB, or maybe just generally skeptical after decades of drafting running backs in rounds one and two, take a moment to consider what has happened through two weeks this year. Had you followed my general strategy of buying the cheaper running back in each backfield, by ADP you would have Coleman, Ware, Sims, McKinnon, Riddick/Washington, DeAngelo, Crowell, C-Mike, Gio, Blount and Yeldon over the more-expensive nominal starters. With that in mind, maybe it’s time to sell high on a CJ Anderson for a 2017 1st (stacked draft class) and at talented backup running back (I like Alfred Morris). Maybe you can get even more than that.
For transparency, if you want to know what my typical dynasty team looks like, you can take a look at my year-two, 13 team superflex roster here (best ball, rotisserie). It’s very much the kind of resilient roster (light on expensive RB’s and heavy on high end QB/WR’s) that I like to build. I also own two of the projected top five picks as I further solidify myself as a perennial contender indefinitely.
#Dynasty250 4.0. Enjoy.
*9/21 11:49 am ET EDIT: this list was published before IR news on Ameer Abdullah and Adrian Peterson. Rather than re-work the entire list, just keep that in mind and I’ll update in the next release
|5||Aaron Rodgers||QB||Yards per attempt has continued to drop in the early going this year. Consider me moderately concerned since we’re splitting hairs among elite assets.|
|6||Russell Wilson||QB||Fading due to the ankle injury and the failing O-line|
|7||Allen Robinson||WR||Rough start, but better days are to follow for the just-turned-23-year-old.|
|14||Sammy Watkins||WR||Great time to buy him, but his 2016 value is undeniably shaky.|
|17||Will Fuller||WR||If there’s a lesson to be learned with Fuller, it’s to stop thinking we are smarter than the GM’s when he gets taken ahead of prospects we like more.|
|22||Jordan Matthews||WR||For a guy with youth, pedigree, health and production he gets very little love.|
|24||Corey Coleman||WR||Did not take long for him to declare himself as legit.|
|26||Sterling Shepard||WR||Has made a number of contested catches already.|
|27||Jarvis Landry||WR||There’s no precedent for players to get his volume with such low yards per target, but the Dolphins use him in a unique way to supplement their running game. Fade for standard (non PPR).|
|28||Demaryius Thomas||WR||Hip injury and shaky 2016 QB situation has me fading behind some of the kids.|
|31||Todd Gurley||RB||Oh, running backs…|
|32||Kelvin Benjamin||WR||My biggest whiff from the offseason. Benjamin remains the target hog he was as a rookie.|
|33||Le’Veon Bell||RB||Arrow up incrementally since two weeks of the suspension are up.|
|34||David Johnson||RB||If he holds up, he’s a league winner, but I’d still sell for a stud WR for dynasty.|
|35||Keenan Allen||WR||I still don’t believe he’s injury prone and there may be a nice buying opportunity off os someone that was burned by him twice.|
|42||Tyler Boyd||WR||Only a matter of time before he further dips into Lafell’s workload.|
|45||Ezekiel Elliott||RB||If you’re not close to *definitely* a differentiated talent then I’d rather have another WR I like and fish in the cheaper pool.|
|53||Carson Wentz||QB||Pro Football Focus’ top graded QB FWIW. There’s risk with such limited track record, but man he looks like a veteran out there.|
|54||Matthew Stafford||QB||There’s something to the narrative that Stafford may be liberated now that he can spread the ball around (plus Marvin Jones is good, y’all).|
|59||Drew Brees||QB||We saw good Brees in the dome week 1, bad Brees in New Jersey week 2.|
|65||Melvin Gordon||RB||Just a great time to sell for… yep, you guessed it. A stud WR.|
|66||Devonta Freeman||RB||You missed your window to sell high, but the analysts I trust still believe Freeman has a clear talent edge over Coleman.|
|67||Jamaal Charles||RB||Pass that baton to Ware, JC.|
|69||C.J. Anderson||RB||If you have a playable RB on your bench, I’d sell for Booker and a 2017 1st type offer. Churn through the starting RB’s.|
|84||Martavis Bryant||WR||His value goes up every week that we get closer to his return (and without news of any setbacks).|
|92||Kirk Cousins||QB||Again, do not mistake mediocre for bad, but there’s more risk that he can’t stick as an NFL starter than there was week 1.|
|93||Adrian Peterson||RB||Limited information on how long he’ll be out, but this rank assumes this year isn’t his last.|
|94||Travis Benjamin||WR||Plenty of value tied to the circumstances, so if you fall out of the race sell asap.|
|95||Eric Ebron||TE||Ebron got screwed out of a second TD and is blossoming into a differentiated TE1 among the tight end muck after Gronk, Olsen and Reed.|
|98||Theo Riddick||RB||You can fade some for standard, but he is going to have a steady role in the NFL for a long time with upside for more whenever the lead back goes down.|
|99||Spencer Ware||RB||It’s scary how the Chiefs churn out studs to replace aging studs (Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Charles and now Ware).|
|103||Dak Prescott||QB||Hasn’t really made plays beyond what’s there quite yet, but looks like he belongs and in dynasty I want long-term utility over upside at QB so I can focus elsewhere.|
|104||Alex Smith||QB||Here’s what you’re getting with Smith – good enough to win with. He is locked in to a long term deal.|
|105||John Brown||WR||How much of his lack of targets and production is related to the concussion?|
|106||Latavius Murray||RB||The fantasy community killed Latavius, but credit where due – he has played well. Sounds like touches will be spread out, though.|
|110||Golden Tate||WR||Everyone in the offense has looked great except Golden Tate.|
|111||Ameer Abdullah||RB||Too much talent around him to have a ton of confidence in the volume. Limited information on the foot injury.|
|112||T.J. Yeldon||RB||Has not taken advantage of the opportunity in the early going.|
|114||Breshad Perriman||WR||That week one catch along the sidelines is why I remain optimistic.|
|116||Kenneth Dixon||RB||Excited about his chances to be a second half league winner.|
|118||Sam Bradford||QB||I believe Bradford will start again next year, either in Minnesota or elsewhere.|
|121||Ryan Fitzpatrick||QB||Tough rank, because he seems legit willing to walk away from the sport (which is totally reasonable).|
|122||Nelson Agholor||WR||Questionable hands, but good prospect and has been given a chance to make plays down field consistently.|
|124||Jimmy Garoppolo||QB||Instead of a pricey rookie QB next year, just buy Jimmy who is a near lock to get a shot to start after what he did weeks one and two.|
|125||Tevin Coleman||RB||Buy the cheaper running back in dynasty – would have netted you Coleman, Sims, Riddick, McKinnon, etc. at a fraction of the price.|
|128||Devin Funchess||WR||Where are the targets?|
|130||C.J. Prosise||RB||I know from experience that if you’re a contender it’s easy to lose patience on Prosise (I did), but despite all the bodies he is the only pass catching back on the roster.|
|135||Quincy Enunwa||WR||No fluke. Jets’ de facto tight end has size, speed and hands.|
|136||Thomas Rawls||RB||Hopefully you followed the “get the cheaper RB” principle and avoided.|
|140||Austin Seferian-Jenkins||TE||I just gave up Funchess for him in TE Premium league.|
|145||Martellus Bennett||TE||Is this guy going to have a monster season or is this guy going to have a monster season?|
|146||Mike Wallace||WR||In hindsight maybe we all should have seen Flacco to Wallace as a match made in heaven.|
|153||Dwayne Washington||RB||Athletic freak who has flashed in preseason; at this writing I don’t know much about Abdullah injury.|
|155||Jimmy Graham||TE||I think he will pick it up, but not expecting return to glory.|
|156||Hunter Henry||TE||I love him as a prospect and Gates has looked sluggish; opportunity could come sooner than we thought.|
|160||Frank Gore||RB||I’d rather ride him into the sunset than stash someone ranked behind him, provided I’m contending.|
|163||Jay Cutler||QB||High end backup or low end starter?|
|164||Jeremy Langford||RB||Hopefully you listened to basically entire fantasy community when they said this guy lacked skills. Opportunity hangs by a thread.|
|167||DeAngelo Williams||RB||Best… handcuff… ever.|
|168||Shane Vereen||RB||Fade in standard.|
|179||Jordan Howard||RB||Looked much more spry on MNF than I anticipated. Prefer to Langford at price.|
|180||Bilal Powell||RB||Still a nice handcuff to Forte.|
|181||Alfred Morris||RB||Falling in love with his upside behind that offensive line should Zeke bust, get hurt or get suspended.|
|183||Sammie Coates||WR||Intersting best ball player, but I’m not seeing a long-term starter.|
|186||Mike Glennon||QB||My favorite QB spec add for 2017.|
|188||Jesse James||TE||I like to think Big Ben calls him “Heath” just cuz’ (not my joke).|
|190||Vincent Jackson||WR||Toast emoji.|
|196||Dennis Pitta||TE||Flacco always had a thing for this guy.|
|203||Cameron Artis-Payne||RB||CAP, not Fozzy, earned larger role when Stewart was out last year.|
|204||Marqise Lee||WR||A pulse from the former blue chip prospect…|
|216||Josh McCown||QB||This tier of QB’s is a total fudge.|
|219||Robert Griffin III||QB|
|239||Ted Ginn Jr.||WR||Disregard if you’re not in a best ball league.|
|249||Danny Woodhead||RB||A sneaky stash in PPR leagues.|
Good call on Fuller. I took him in the 12th round of my draft. I’m feeling pretty good about him. You have Derrick Henry way too low in my opinion. I have a feeling he’ll get the majority of touches by week 9. I have no faith in DeMarco Murray right now doing anything of value. Keep up the good work Tom I appreciate these!
[…] TheDynastyGuru.com updates their rankings of the top 250 overall players for dynasty/keeper leagues. […]
I can compete this year…given that would you trade Melvin Gordon and Travis Benjamin for Sammy Watkins? His 16 uncertainty scares me.
Without a doubt, yes. That’s the kind of buy low, sell high that dynasty owners dream of.
I started a 2 QB 2 TE 16 team 40 man dynasty 9 years ago…I have noticed the value of RB’s dropping, but you take that to an extreme…if that works for you, and it can I respect that…WR are much more stable ND it is a passing league…but the value of a workhorse back with job security is still VERY high.
I give points to rushes, however, as this more mimics real life…rushing wears down a defense…and I could not let a catch for zero yards be worth more than a 7 yd rush…I think full PPR with no points for rushing is very unrealistic. Call it forward thinking.
All that said I always enjoy lists and everyone is entitled to their opinions…I have a VASTLY different view from you on MANY values…but I love how much you take age into account…for the MOST part….you have a ton of rookies ranked very high…and seem to have given up on a lot of guys too early (you would seriously trade Perriman for Boyd? No way).
The thing that stopped me and made me have to right was the “questionable hands” you listed next to Agholor…Agholor had very arguably the best hands in the draft last year, only one close was Amari…once he gets ingrained and comfortable…and Wentz stops just dumping it off…we will see his crisp routes and suction cup hands paying off.
Any info on why Hilton is so low as well? Or why DaVante Parker loses a year to injury but is SO much higher than very solid draft mates Perriman, Agholor, Conley, Strong (if you say trust then about Fuller why don’the we trust them about Strong?).
Hope you have fun with this…I’m sure we have a nice discussion going!
Thanks for the feedback and enthusiasm. Looking forward to engaging in short order, but right now I’m working on an update as I’m trying to update every two weeks. It’s good to be faithful to your evaluations, but dynasty football value can change quickly.
My pleasure! Eagerly await!
Robby, it sounds like your league places a massive premium on running backs if you give a point per carry.
I’ll concede few are lower on the dynasty value of running backs in a context-neutral (e.g. no RB premium) setting. The reason is simple, RB is still largely a position of opportunity, and I can stash the backups for very little capital and effectively neutralize anyone’s RB advantage when the injury / poor performance carnage strikes. Further, I’ve had much more success finding impact running backs later in the rookie draft (e.g. David Johnson was a 2nd round pick for me last year and Jordan Howard looks to be among the 2nd/3rd round picks with a chance to be a 3-down-back).
Then there’s the fact that running backs’ longevity is just not there. Go back as recently to anyone’s 2014 dynasty RB rankings for a sobering take on how confident we should feel about any RB of any age.
I haven’t given up on Perriman, I just really liked Boyd as a prospect and I’m more patient with him right now because he’s 21, healthy and a rookie. We both know draft pedigree is king, but there are certain age-adjusted production markers that cue us in to when a prospect may have legitimately “fallen” and Boyd has those.
Of the WR you mentioned Parker was both drafted the highest (by far) and has produced when in the lineup. Re: Agholar, sometimes I’m liable to forget details of player as a prospect if they haven’t demonstrated it in the NFL. I watch a lot of Eagles and he’s had a ton of balls bounce off his chest, his hands or he just can’t hang on in a contested setting. I’ll concede it’s better to defer to college pedigree at this early juncture, tho.
Re: Fuller vs. Strong, I’ll re-reference what I said before about draft pedigree being king. Fuller should be a giant reminder to the amateur scouting community that often thinks we know better than GM’s. You can have you preferences (like Boyd for me), but when a WR is the 2nd player taken at the position we should care about that.
Let’s continue this discussion on the next rankings!
Agreed I look forward to it!
I have loved TDG for baseball and just stumbled upon these rankings aND was overjoyed!
I don’t see anything on the drop down above, so what is the best way to be alerted to and access new material on Football?
New rankings are live, you may have noticed.
Bret (“the dynasty guru”) Sayre and I are hoping to connect this Fall about improving the UX including making discovery better, particularly of the most popular posts (like rankings).
Alerts… I hadn’t actually thought about that. I don’t know that we’ve collected email addresses of our users so the best way besides checking the site is probably twitter as I am posting every time I release a new post.
Oh and re: age…
For EVERY dynasty sport I play I see rankings with old guys ahead of young guys on the basis that they’re more proven or we think they’re better in the short term, but no one actually ever prefers those old guys in trades. Market preferences shouldn’t necessarily dictate rankings, bc they may be irrational, but I happen to agree that it’s better to have a wide open window of contention and embrace some “unproven” risk (within reason) than to be confined to a narrow 1-2 year window to win. I want to be among the best 1-3 teams every year, indefinitely.