Going Deep: Recap of a 20-team Dynasty MiLB Draft: Picks 31-40
Last week I covered the first half of the second round of a 20-team dynasty league’s minor league draft. To check that out, click here, and within that link is a link to a previous iteration of this exercise that full explains the league settings/structure. From there it’s just links within links until it becomes a fractal.
The picks are numbered 11-20 but keep in mind these are second round selections
11. Boston – JP Crawford (SS PHI)
I think this pick looks really prescient by the end of the year. Crawford is a better real life player than fantasy player, but he can really hit, he can run enough and he’ll be playing up the middle. He’s not going to turn into Lindor or anything, but I think he can be a back of the top ten SS down the line, and while that upside isn’t anything to drool over, getting that value in the second round of a 20-team league is really nice.
12. St. Louis – Stephen Piscotty (OF STL)
This was a dagger for me. I didn’t think I had any chance at getting Piscotty, but he kept dropping and dropping. This is already looking like one of the best picks of the draft as he’s tearing up Triple-A. While he doesn’t have the ceiling to be a truly impact player, this is the exact type of guy you need to let your impact players flourish in a deep league like this one. Piscotty’s high floor is a bonus in deep leagues.
13. Pittsburgh – Miguel Almonte (SP KC)
More good value. Almonte would be a first rounder if he was in Double-A, a level he might get to this season. While his timetable (rightly) depresses his value, he’s entering the year at the same level of Sean Manaea, but with a better track record. He’s been fine so far this year, and I am looking forward to seeing him respond to some developmental hurdles. His ultimate ceiling is something of a fantasy SP3, and it should be interesting to monitor the development of a breaking ball to pair with his fantastic changeup.
14. NY Mets – Hunter Renfroe (OF SD)
These last four picks continue to highlight something of a trend. Security/floor matters. Renfroe doesn’t have superstar upside. What he does have is legitimate plus power and the ability to be fast-tracked thanks to his college resume. He’s a flawed player, but the owner (our own Bret Sayre) surely knows this. He’s likely to be a big leaguer despite those flaws though, and that’s why he’s valuable. Plus power in a corner is nothing to shake a stick at.
15. Miami – Reese McGuire (C Pit)
This is the pendulum swinging a bit in the other direction. As a high school catcher drafted in the first round, the track record isn’t great, so there’s more risk here than there has been with the previous picks. McGuire is one of my favorite prospects, and I probably value him more than most in a fantasy format, but the reality is that he’s probably four years away and the only way he has a shot at the top catcher spot is if his speed carries him there. His power is present but not a carrying tool, though he should be plenty valuable as one of the best defensive catchers in the minors, as well as a legitimate average run tool to pair with that pop. This is a fine pick, but one that will take some time to mature.
16. LA Dodgers – Ryan McMahon (3B COL)
Hello. It’s me again, to see again. I dip my toes back into the Colorado pool to select one of the guys I hyped all offseason in Ryan McMahon. He came out like a house on fire and while he’s cooled down since, he’s still showing the ability to take a walk and hit for power. For a guy that was a dual-sport player in high school, I’ll take that every day of the week. The ceiling is probably that of an above-average third baseman in the majors, but since he plays in hitter’s parks all the way up the chain, I’ll have a good chance to trade him for excess value down the line.
17. NY Yankees –Mike Foltynewicz (SP HOU)
I’m not in love with this, but that’s because I’m a ceiling whore. Folty profiles as something close to what Nate Eovaldi has been before his brief breakout this season if he’s a starter. He might even have more impact as a reliever who could be a shutdown closer in the mold of Trevor Rosenthal (though he doesn’t have his changeup). That said, he’s one level away from the major leagues and could contribute in the latter half of this year. Immediacy does have value.
18. Minnesota – Eduardo Rodriguez (SP BAL)
We should probably keep in mind this owner’s Baltimore Orioles fandom, but I think this is a solid pick either way – similar to the Almonte selection. Rodriguez reached Double-A as a 20-year old and has returned there for at least the first half of this season. There’s more polish than there is ceiling here, but Rodriguez should be able to turn into a mid-rotation starter who can notch innings and contribute in strikeouts, even if he won’t be an impact guy in that sense.
19. Texas – Hunter Dozier (3B KC)
Dozier had a rough opening to the 2014 season but has rebounded nicely in recent weeks. He’s got some people thinking he could be a role 6 guy at the major league level (occasional all-star) and while that’s probably a 95th percentile outcome, Dozier might not have been as overdrafted as we thought coming out of the MLB draft. There’s a good chance he’s a major leaguer, and even if it ends up that he’s a second division player, any starter is a solid value as we near the third round of this draft.
20. Kansas City – Rosell Herrera (SS COL)
As someone who used this space to tout Herrera incessantly last year, it might surprise you I don’t love this pick. Herrera has the tools to make the major leagues, but he seems to be something of a tweener in the end. I love him as a guy to take a flier on, but I think there were other values left on the board that exceeded his. Just because he’s got a profile that doesn’t necessarily fit a position, doesn’t mean he won’t make it though. Different does not equal bad, but I just struggle to see where it’s definitely going to work.