Going Deep: Recap of a 20-team Dynasty MiLB Draft: Picks 21-30
Last week I covered the second half of the first round of a 20-team dynasty league’s minor league draft. To check that out, click here, and within that link is a link to a previous iteration of this exercise that full explains the league settings/structure. From there it’s just links within links until it becomes a fractal.
1. Milwaukee – Henry Owens (SP BOS)
I’ve gone back and forth on Owens as some see him as more of a back of the rotation type while others see him with number two starter potential. The middle is usually right in these cases and I think most would agree that a third starter is in the offing, but Owens certainly appears to be showing more of that number two profile than anything back end thus far.
2. Colorado – Braden Shipley (SP ARZ)
Shipley is one of my favorite prospects out of the 2013 draft and supremely underrated in fantasy circles. While he is a college product, he came to pitching late in the game and thus carries more raw skills than would typically be expected from a college arm. That said, he has more room to grow than the typical college arm as well. He’s going to miss a lot of bats and while the ultimate result might be another middle of the rotation arm, I think he’ll elevate in fantasy thanks to his swing-and-miss stuff.
3. San Diego – Lucas Sims (SP ATL)
Sims was overlooked last year but put up a performance that was too hard to ignore. I’m a bit surprised he went after first round arms from this year (like Manaea) but there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference between them in the end. Sims strikes me as something of a better pitcher in real life than fantasy. His fastball command is impressive, and he’s got a nice curve, but I think ultimately he is worth more on the field than in the box score, because he won’t bring the strikeouts that a top of the rotation fantasy arm does. He should be a worthy two or three in the fantasy realm and nabbing that in the second round is gravy.
4. Atlanta – Tom Murphy (C COL)
This struck me as something of a box-score selection. Murphy posted a .288/.385/.590 slash line in Low-A ball before being jumped straight to Double-A for 20 games, where he slashed .290/.338/.493. Nothing to complain about there, really, but the issue is that he’s 22 already. He’s back in Double-A at 23 and struggling to the tune of .209/.308/.385. That small sample shouldn’t carry more weight than his success at the end of last year, but there’s question whether Murphy is a catcher when it’s all said and done, and the scouting reports aren’t as glowing as the offensive stats. Being in Colorado will certainly help him, but he was more of a third round value to me than anything.
5. Oakland – Hunter Harvey (SP BAL)
Undervalued in both the 2013 draft and this one, Harvey has earned nothing but rave reviews. He’s piling up big numbers in Low-A and while the Orioles would like to take it slow with him, he might force their hand. There are some fears he’s a reliever in the end, thanks to his two plus pitches, but reports are that a feel for the changeup is there, and it just needs some time to manifest itself.
6. Arizona – Colin Moran (3B MIA)
It seems so late for the sixth overall pick in the draft to go, but the fantasy outlook for Moran isn’t sexy. He doesn’t project to hit for much power, and while he showed a sweet stroke in college, there are questions on how much that success will translate to the majors. We’re looking at a potential .285/20 HR bat at third base, but there is also the possibility that he’s a .270/15 HR bat at first base. One of those is pretty good (Kyle Seager-esque) while other is useless in many formats.
7. Baltimore – Rafael Montero (SP NYM)
As you’ll recall from round one, this owner prefers a close-to-the-majors product, and he doesn’t disappoint with this pick. Montero was just recently promoted to the Mets, and has more than proven himself at Triple-A. His ceiling isn’t all that high, but for a league of this depth, he’s going to provide plenty of value, and likely for a long time. It’s a safe selection, but one that will likely reward itself many times over.
8. Chicago AL – Tim Anderson (SS CHW)
I’m not an Anderson fan, but I’d agree that this is probably the place for him. He’s not a flier, certainly, but there’s a ton of risk and an equal amount of reward here. He might not be a shortstop, but carries similar value in center. If he can hit enough to access his power, he’ll provide a dynamic power/speed combination. It’s possible though, that the hit tool sinks him and leaves him as nothing more than a utility guy.
9. Chicago NL – CJ Edwards (SP CHC)
This is not a reaction to his recent arm soreness, but I did not and do not like this pick. Edwards has fun stuff, but his slight stature always foretold his path to the bullpen. The Cubs are going to develop him as a starter, as well they should, but he’s got endurance issues, losing stuff later on in games and that seems unlikely to abate. If he can be a starter, there are no issues with the selection, so it comes down to point-of-view, but as someone with the mind that he can’t start, this was far too early.
10. Toronto – Mookie Betts (2B BOS)
This is a great pick that I loved at the time. Ok, fine, I didn’t think much of it at the time. That’s not to say I disliked it, but it didn’t move the needle either way. Betts was receiving a ton of offseason hype and had justified it with his onfield performance in 2013. He’s more than done so in 2014, and could be hitting his way out of Double-A despite a relatively short stay there. Where he might play in Boston down the line is the question, one that Boston likely thought they had a couple season’s to answer. He might not end up on the infield dirt if he keeps hitting like this, but either way, it’s tremendous value for this owner.