#TDGX Transaction Report: More Scrambling for Saves

You’ve been following TDGX. You love TDGX. We all love TDGX.  And every week here at The Dynasty Guru, I am going to be bringing you commentary from our flagship experts’ league, directly from the participants themselves. Today we’re going to cover all of the transactions made post-draft, including a few trades–one involving an elite prospect and another involving a potential high-end starting pitcher.

The goal here is to give you insight into the moves made by our group of experts so that you can use this information the next time you need to make a trade or prominent FA move in your league. So let’s not mess around with too much longer of an introduction. We’re going to break this up into three sections: trades, major league additions, minor league additions.

TRADES

None this week

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Prospect Smackdown: Brian Goodwin vs. Jake Marisnick

In last week’s prospect smackdown, I took a look at the two best uninjured third base prospects in the game in Garin Cecchini and Maikel Franco. I’d love to tell you who won that battle, but I can’t, because I forgot to add a poll until Saturday afternoon. That means we only have five votes, whereas said polls generally get between 150-200. Sadz.

This week, I’m going to cover two of my personal favorite outfield prospects who’ve seen their stocks decline slightly over the past year. And this week, I’m going to include a poll at the bottom, because I learn quickly.

Prospect Smackdown No. 10: Brian Goodwin vs. Jake Marisnick

The Case for Goodwin

Goodwin is a very well-rounded prospect from a fantasy tools perspective, earning 5+ potential power and speed tools and a potential 6 hit tool grade from Jason Parks before the season began. The outfielder has also posted strong walk rates throughout the minors and profiles as a major leaguer who should be able to reach base with frequency. Goodwin is now in Triple-A, meaning he’s on the cusp of a MLB call-up, and it’s pretty exciting to think about his upside if allowed to bat near the top of the Nationals’ potent lineup. Goodwin should be especially valuable in OBP leagues, but even in leagues with standard category setups, a player who can hit .280 with 15 homers, 15 steals and a ton of runs is worthy of monitoring.   Continue reading

Breakout or Fakeout: Are These Hot Starting Pitchers For Real?

We are now a month into the 2014 season and there are several starting pitchers who are unexpectedly leading their fantasy teams to the top of the standings. Last week I reviewed some highly ranked ace pitchers that are off to terrible starts (read it here).  Today I will do the opposite and look at some pitchers that have come out of nowhere to post excellent numbers. None of these guys were ranked highly this Spring but they are all ranked in the top 20 for the season thus far.

Aaron Harang — 3-1 Record, 0.85 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 33 Ks

Harang has been the 4th best pitcher in fantasy leagues so far, which is very impressive. When is the last time you saw an ERA lower than a WHIP (Buehrle too, below)? He is striking out a ton of batters, which is an indication he could have continued success. But this is not Harang’s first rodeo. We have seen this guy in the majors since way back in 2003, so we pretty much know everything there is to know about him — and we know he is not this good. Harang has been quite lucky with a microscopic .200 BABIP and a huge 89.3% strand rate so far. His xFIP is 3.75. Moving forward we should plan for him to pitch at a 3.60 ERA or higher, with a WHIP of 1.30. Verdict: Hold onto him and use him while he is hot.

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Scouting the Statline: Early Season Prospect Struggles

Periodically over the course of the season I’ll take the opportunity of this space to check in on how some notable fantasy prospects are performing down on the farm, and what that performance may or may not mean for your dynasty league. I’d like to kick off this series with a disclaimer that you should NEVER SCOUT MINOR LEAGUE STAT LINES. Listen to scouts and their firsthand reports on player progress and development, then make your decisions about how you value prospects according to those reports and your interpretation of how a given prospect appears to be developing.

Disclaimer acknowledged, stats do matter to the degree that they influence how other managers in your league (and, it’s okay to admit it, you) view prospects. So it’s important to have a handle on how players are performing as tradin’ time comes around. I plan to highlight players that are both playing above or below their scouted talent levels over the course of the season. At this point in the season, however, it’s unlikely that you’re going to be able to find any suckers who’ll put enough stock in a couple weeks’ worth of performance that they’ll sell you a player on the cheap. Nor are you likely to be able to flip a fringe prospect who’s come out guns a-blazin’ for true talent. So I’m going to focus here on a few higher end fantasy prospects who’ve struggled out of the gate, and you should consider this first edition more of a recommendation to keep an eye on these players. If their struggles persist for another couple weeks it may just make for a tasty window to pounce…

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Trader’s Corner: Big Names, Big Trades

This week features several top ten talents changing hands. As I’ve been reading through the emails sent in for this column, I can’t help but notice two things:

1. Our readers are really smart fantasy players who make savvy trades.

2. Our readers sometimes play in really complicated leagues!

Seriously, the response has been great so far and I think it’s a lot of fun to vote on fantasy trades like the ones coming in to Trader’s Corner. What gives it another dimension is we’ll be able to look back through some of these posts later to see how the trades really pan out. If you’d like to submit a recently completed or pending trade for a vote, send it to traderscornertdg@gmail.com. I can usually respond to most emails within a day or two to give you my take, and at the very least every trade submitted gets posted in the column. Without further ado…

Trade #1

12-team keeper, keep 6 (count as first 6 rounds), keep forever

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#TDGX Recap: Team Goldstein: Rounds 31-40

When we last left off, I was seven rounds into my “pick prospects until I fill out my minors” phase, having selected the likes of Nomar Mazara, Miguel Almonte, Nick Kingham, and Lewis Brinson among others. I continue that run to start my final ten picks, and then fill out the roster with some major league players. I’ll recap those players and the moves I’ve made since the season started below.

Round 31 – Pick 619 – Franchy Cordero, SS, San Diego Padres

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The #TDGX Transaction Report: Closers Be Expensive, Yo

You’ve been following TDGX. You love TDGX. We all love TDGX.  And every week here at The Dynasty Guru, I am going to be bringing you commentary from our flagship experts’ league, directly from the participants themselves. Today we’re going to cover all of the transactions made post-draft, including a few trades–one involving an elite prospect and another involving a potential high-end starting pitcher.

The goal here is to give you insight into the moves made by our group of experts so that you can use this information the next time you need to make a trade or prominent FA move in your league. So let’s not mess around with too much longer of an introduction. We’re going to break this up into three sections: trades, major league additions, minor league additions.

TRADES

4/17/14: Craig Glaser/Tom Trudeau trade Chris Colabello to Luke Chatelain for a 2015 3rd round pick

Tom: “As good as Colabello has been, trying to trade him felt like a race against time. We won him off waivers in hopes of quickly trading him to a team in need of a bat, but no one was biting. This second waive of productivity afforded us a chance to turn him into an asset, if only a modest one, before he turns into a pumpkin.”

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Prospect Smackdown: Garin Cecchini vs Maikel Franco

In last week’s Prospect Smackdown, we examined two second base prospects with awesome names and varying skill sets.  Voters decided that they preferred Rougned Odor to Arismendy Alcantara, by a margin of 54 to 46 percent.

This week, we take a look at two hot corner fantasy prospects with questionable defensive futures, incomplete games, but serious fantasy potential.

Prospect Smackdown No. 9: Garin Cecchini vs. Maikel Franco

The Case for Cecchini

Quite simply, the case for Cecchini begins with his hit tool. Widely regarded as a plus tool, we’re at the point where we as a community need to begin regarding it as a plus-plus tool instead. When I’ve seen Cecchini, he’s taken a short, direct path to the ball, looked comfortable tracking offspeed pitches and hit the ball hard on a line, despite not generating a lot of loft with his swing. To me, Cecchini is a future perennial .290-plus hitter, fully capable of using the whole field and also able to turn on inside pitches when need be. He’s dominated at every stop in the minors, routinely posting OBPs north of .400 and walking in over 15 percent of his PA. While speed won’t be a major part of his game, Cecchini is also an incredibly savvy base runner who could challenge for 10 swipes a year in the majors despite average speed. Continue reading

Ace Pitchers Shot Down in Flames, Time to Panic?

This young season we are seeing a lot of top pitchers get off to terrible starts. Its scary as Hell when your ace pitcher’s stat line is as bloody as a scene from a Quentin Tarantino movie. Stephen Strasburg, R.A. Dickey and Danny Salazar may be crushing your team’s championship hopes, but at least they are not on the overloaded conveyor belt into Dr. James Andrews’ operating room.

This week I will take a look at a set of really good starting pitchers who have gotten off to terrible starts here in 2014. All of these guys were drafted early and expected to perform much better than they have thus far. Who will bounce back and who really does suck? Let’s figure out which of these guys you should try to dump and which of them you should trade for while their owners in your league are panicking over their putrid April.

Homer Bailey — 0-1 record, 8.16 ERA, 2.02 WHIP (Yahoo Rank: #1323)

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Trader’s Corner: Readers Been Busy

Lots of trades to get to this week, so we’ll get right to brass tax. Thanks to everyone who submitted, and keep sending us your recent trades and trade proposals to: traderscornertdg@gmail.com or on Twitter @643ball. Last week we tallied over 200 reader votes for three trades. Hopefully it was helpful for those who submitted and fun for those who read/voted. Some trades/leagues are more complicated than others so I’ll post the relevant info at the top of the poll for each. Here are this week’s trades…

Trade #1

Keeper points league, 9 keepers, Profar on the DL

My other pitchers are Zack Wheeler, Gio Gonzalez, Sonny Gray, Shelby Miller, Tyson Ross, Tyler Chatwood, Joe Kelly, Brett Anderson, Archie Bradley, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, Jake Peavy

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