The Dynasty Guru Experts League

TDGX Recap – I Told You to Wait on Youth

We are three-fourths of the way through the TDGX draft as I write this, and let me just tell you that when you draft 800 players, your perception of who is fantasy-relevant and who isn’t becomes quite skewed.

“Oh good, I got Lonnie Chisenhall,” is a thought I thought unironically. “Drats, I missed out on John Lamb,” is something that ran across my mind and was reasonable. Such deep leagues dramatically increase the value of even league-average players, and finding an everyday starter after the first 400-or-so picks is a difficult task.

But in TDGX, finding these players was at least a little easier than it should’ve been thanks to some teams who went prospect-heavy in earlier rounds, leaving a deeper pool of acceptable veterans well into the 25th round. Yet as you can see from my draft, my decision to wait on young players with some upside was at least partially justified, as I was able to capture some flawed but interesting players age 26 or younger in the middle-to-late rounds of my draft.

You can check out the first 12 rounds of my team here, but here’s a look at the work I’ve done since: 

Rd

Pick

ADP

Player

13

225

219.2

Ben Revere, OF, PHI

14

266

92.8

Joe Nathan, RP, DET

15

295

167.8

C.C. Sabathia, SP, NYY

16

306

122.4

Jim Johnson, RP, OAK

17

335

277.6

Josh Willingham, OF, MIN

18

346

226.6

Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL

19

375

NR

Wilmer Flores, 3B/2B, NYM (MiLB)

20

386

344.8

Carlos Quentin, OF, SD

21

415

249

Ervin Santana, SP, FA

22

426

478

Trevor Bauer, SP, CLE (MiLB)

23

455

404

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE

24

486

401

Brett Anderson, SP, COL

25

495

NR

Kyle Gibson, SP, MIN (MiLB)

26

506

381

Jon Jay, OF, STL

27

535

362.5

Alberto Callaspo, 2B/3B, OAK

28

546

NR

Luis Sardinas, SS, TEX (MiLB)

29

575

382

Luke Gregerson, RP, OAK

30

586

347.8

Mike Leake, SP, CIN

For the most part, I can group these 18 selections into three distinct categories.

Picks emphasizing youth

My youngsters come with risk, to be sure, but I was thrilled to land Bauer at 426 overall and thought that Revere and Chisenhall represented good value where they were drafted. Flores is underrated because he’s blocked right now, but if he’s a top-15 2B or 3B in 2015 I won’t be surprised. Gibson is a personal man-crush of mine and I will draft him all of the time every time. Sardinas is one of my few picks that’s irrelevant for 2014, but I’m a fan and think he’s underrated because he’s buried in his organization.

Picks based on my win-now strategy

Drafting closers in a dynasty league isn’t sexy, but Nathan and Johnson should ensure that I at least finish middle-of-the-pack in saves, and I could do better if I hit on another reliever or two later. I didn’t specifically plan to handcuff Johnson with Gregerson, but given that the latter will improve my ratios even if he never sees a single save opportunity, I’m happy I got him where I did. Willingham and Quentin are more boring picks, but when you can pick up 40-plus homers when you’re already 350-plus players deep, it’s a win. I think my team’s overall average is good enough to absorb Willingham, and Quentin’s average is actually quite decent for a power hitter. I just can’t bank on him surpassing 400 PA.

Picks based purely on value

Sabathia, Gallardo, Anderson, Jay, Callaspo and Leake all fit into this group. I didn’t plan to target any – in fact, I’ve been avoiding Gallardo and Anderson in most leagues – but at a certain point I couldn’t leave them on the table any longer. This also proves that it’s easy to build the back-end of a pitching staff late in drafts, even in leagues of this size. My rotation certainly comes with risk, but if I hit on even two of Sabathia, Gallardo, Bauer and Anderson, I’m in good shape. Callaspo’s versatility is important in a league of this size, and while Jay might not have a starting job his AVG and R totals will help me when he is in the lineup.

I’ll be the first to admit that my young core is among the worst in the league. But with Julio Teheran, Oswaldo Arcia, Jon Singleton, Anderson, Revere, Flores, Bauer, Gibson, Chisenhall, Leake and Sardinas, I at least have a semi-interesting group of players to build around in the long run, and it’s a list that will grow quickly as the draft comes to an end. It’s not perfect, but when you consider that my team is well positioned for at least a top-five finish this year, it’s a deficiency I’m willing to accept and believe I can change. 

The Author

Ben Carsley

Ben Carsley

3 Comments

  1. Tony
    March 10, 2014 at 11:33 am — Reply

    That is a great spot to nab Gibson. With Alex Meyer coming up this year the Twins might actually have a decent one two punch with those too.

    Question: Would you trade Josh Reddick and Ivan Nova to grab Archie Bradley in a Dynasty league? Also if Kris Bryant moves to OF, do you like him or Polanco as a better fantasy OF?

  2. Tim H
    March 11, 2014 at 6:07 am — Reply

    I like the Carlos Quentin pick – don’t think its a boring one as you state. If healthy I believe he will perform like a top 30 outfielder, and even if you don’t think his ceiling is that high at pick 386 overall its not as though you are risking much.

  3. Tim H
    March 11, 2014 at 6:07 am — Reply

    I like the Carlos Quentin pick – don’t think its a boring one as you state. If healthy I believe he will perform like a top 30 outfielder, and even if you don’t think his ceiling is that high at pick 386 overall its not as though you are risking much.

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