In most dynasty leagues, you need to keep track of at least 300 players. In deeper leagues, you may have to keep track of 600-plus. If you’re in TDGX or a TDGX reader league, you need help and you need to know 800-plus names.
This means that purging some players from your mind now and then can be a beneficial exercise. You need to make room for new players with fewer exposed flaws and a greater chance of impacting a MLB roster, and it’s important to not fall into the “name value” trap once players have proven incapable of producing in the majors.
That being said, sometimes prospects and post-prospects drop off the radar so precipitously that it can be difficult to ascertain exactly what went wrong and if there’s any point to continuing to monitor their status. That’s why this week, I’ve decided to dive really deep and take a look at four blast-from-the-past names who still have a 0.01% chance of achieving fantasy relevancy.
Gary Brown, OF, Giants
Once viewed as the center fielder of the future in San Francisco, Brown now looks a lot more like a fifth outfielder of the future. While Brown has always faced questions about his strength and his ability to hit, he had yet to truly bottom out as he did in 2013, hitting just .231/.286/.375 in 608 PA in Triple-A. He’ll turn 26 this season, so youth is certainly not on his side, and Brown has proven to be an ineffective base runner despite his plus speed as well. Continue reading →
He didn’t destroy Cuba because he is bad. He destroyed Cuba because he is really good and he wasn’t allowed to play anywhere else. Probably the best Cuban to compare Abreu to is Kendry Morales and Abreu blew Morales’ Cuban numbers out of the water. So assuming Abreu is better his base line should be set at 34 HRs, 40 is going to be easily reachable.
Let’s just cut right to the chase here, because I’m jonesing to unleash these lil’ jewels on the world.
1. LaTroy Hawkins will lead the Rockies in Saves
Yesssss. We’re starting with a bang, baby. Rex Brothers spent the entire offseason as the sexy pick to take over for the anointed Hawkins as soon as LaTroy allows his first baserunner this season. But as long as the arbitration process blindly rewards saves over quality relief pitching the Rockies will have a fairly powerful financial incentive to keep Sexy Rexy out of the closer’s role, provided the situation on the field allows it. Hawkins has managed to cobble together a pretty stellar little 19-year career, and like a fine wine he’s pitched his finest, most consistent ball as he’s aged. Even at 41 he’ll be a perfectly fine reliever, and that’ll be good enough to hang onto the job for enough to wear the Rocky Mountain Saves belt.
Bold predictions are fun. Instead of just being ‘high’ on a player, I can create an outlandish bold prediction to really profess my love for them. I got a little homesick editing these. Without even realizing it, my eleven bold predictions begin and end with my hometown Phillies. I hope you enjoy reading them as much as I enjoyed writing them.
1. Ben Revere steals 50 bases and hits his first career home run.
It is a warm July day at Citizen’s Bank Park. Revere is in the midst of a career year, with 24 steals already on the season. He feels good today having eaten a second bowl of Wheaties before heading to the ballpark. He takes a first pitch fastball over the right field scoreboard to the surprise of everyone in attendance that day. ESPN home run tracker will call it “lucky”. Ben Revere will just call it “awesome”. He flashes his trademark smile as he crosses home plate to put the Phils ahead 1-0.
You’re not here for intros. Here’s last year’s. Here’s the review of last year’s. Here’s this year’s train wreck:
1) Michael Choice gets 400+ plate appearances
Mitch Moreland is playing through a might-be-tweaked oblique right now and I think Choice is good enough to hold on to the job if he can get a crack at it full time. Between his ability to rotate into the outfield corners and hit for power that would be functional in Oakland much less Texas, Choice should earn plenty of playing time. If he does, it’s fantasy gravy.
It’s my first time publishing bold predictions at The Dynasty Guru, but it’s my third time doing it for the Internet. My bold predictions range from “not very bold” to “stupid Cubs prediction” to “ludicrous speed,” so don’t take all of these bolded words to the bank.
1. Anthony Rizzo leads the NL Central in home runs.
Last year’s home run king in the NL Central was Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alvarez, who blasted 36 home runs, tied for the most in the Senior Circuit with Paul Goldschmidt. I certainly believe Pedro’s power is legit, but I’m also a believer in Rizzo’s potential to hit 30 home runs. His minor league numbers reveal massive power, and Wrigley Field is the perfect complement for a home-run hitter like Rizzo. He may not hit too many with runners on (because come on, it’s the Cubs), but he’ll find plenty of empty bleacher in 2014.
In what’s now becoming a yearly tradition at The Dynasty Guru, the writers here have been (and will be) putting their boldest predictions out there as they relate both to the major leagues and minors. And for completeness, here were my predictions from last year, and then my review of these same predictions from the end of the season. They’re fun pieces and at this point you know exactly what to get out of them. They also don’t need any longer of an intro than this. Let’s have some fun–and yes, these go to eleven.
1) Albert Pujols will be a top-3 fantasy first baseman in 2014, only behind Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt.
The blessing and the curse about writing a lot during the off-season is that you already know who my guys are–and Pujols is clearly one of my guys heading into 2014. He’s healthy and ready to remind people that it wasn’t too long ago that he was considered one of the best hitters in the game. I believe that Spring Training stats mean as little as anyone else, but one thing I did notice this weekend was that Pujols hit a triple on Sunday and just the fact that he felt good enough to stretch it in a meaningless game is noteworthy.
Its time to have fun with some predictions. Some of my predictions are bold and some are BOLD but none of them are crazy. All of these things have a decent chance of actually happening, at least in my mind anyway. I can’t wait to brag about my psychic prognostication skills come October.
I am stepping out on a thin limb here with my first bold prediction because this rare feat has been done only one time in the history of baseball…
1. Billy Hamilton will steal 100 bases while scoring less than 100 Runs.
Take a look at Vince Coleman’s strange 1986 batting line:
That is all sorts of ugly. Coleman got a lot of fanfare that season because of his antics on the basepaths, but he was just plain terrible batting in front of Tom Herr, Jack Clark, Andy Van Slyke, Terry Pendleton, Willie McGee and Ozzie Smith. The two are often compared, but Billy Hamilton is likely to be a much better all-around player than Vince Coleman both offensively and defensively. Hamilton won’t hit many home runs but he will get a lot more doubles and will hit for a much better slash line than Coleman, who finished his career with a very poor .668 OPS. My bold prediction is Hamilton will match Coleman’s dubious feat his rookie year but will get much better as time goes by.
This is my second year posting predictions at The Dynasty Guru, and this time I approach the task with even more dread than a year ago. Internet baseball predictions have a way of biting their creator in the ass more often than not, and that’s a fate I was fully willing to accept last season.
Then a funny thing happened: most of my 2013 predictions were correct. Sure, I had some real clunkers – feel free to skim over anything I wrote about Jesus Montero – but I went seven-for-11 in predictions last season, which is about five predictions better than I thought I’d do. Yes, that was a humblebrag on a fantasy baseball website. Get over it.
All this means, of course, that I’m destined to put up an oh-for this year, but such is life. Here goes nothing:
1. The former first-round starting pitcher with the most fantasy value this year won’t be Archie Bradley, Mark Appel or Kyle Zimmer: it will be Trevor Bauer, who will reclaim his rotation spot right out of Spring Training. Bauer may not be the dominant ace-level starter some projected out of college, but he’ll post a K/9 of 8.00 and an ERA south of 4.00 on his way toward becoming a mid-rotation starter for a long time. It’ll be a big victory for the Indians, who badly need rotation stability in the wake of losing Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez this offseason. Continue reading →
Now that the draft is finally, mercifully over after some three weeks and 800 picks it’s time to actually play the games. Well, close enough anyway. As I’ve touched on a bit in earlier draft updates, I’m fairly pleased with how my draft unfolded. My third- and fourth- round picks of George Springer and Cliff Lee were the only ones I really second-guessed myself at all about, but even there I like both players to provide cornerstone value over the next 2-3 years window. Lee will begin to slide soon if he hasn’t already, I know that. But his repertoire and intelligence as a pitcher point to a gradual decline barring catastrophic injury, and that’s a standard risk for every single pitcher. And Springer has the kind of skillset that can play immediately at the big league level. I realize I’m higher on him than some, but I think hit tool concerns are overblown with him. When he gets the pieces of his swing moving coherently the way they’re supposed to he makes barrel contact, and I expect him to be a high-BABIP player who can offset a decent chunk of his strikeout liabilities to post respectable batting averages. He’s more valuable still in OBP leagues, where his keen batting eye should produce .75-plus differentials between his average and on-base percentage. A mid-.300’s OBP with his power-speed combo is an annual first round-caliber package. But even in standard leagues like TDGX he’s got the ability to be an annual top 10 threat.