The Top 50 Dynasty League First Basemen
Now we’re moving into a category with some meat to it – and not just because a number of these names could politely be referred to as “plus-sized”. We’re not exactly in a golden age for the 1B position in fantasy, but there’s still plenty of talent up towards the top. It’s when we get into the teens and beyond at the position where things are starting to get a little muddy. And after that, it just becomes one enormous wasteland. The great 1B we’re accustomed to seeing are getting older, and the next wave coming to take their place have not exactly worked out as planned so far. This isn’t likely to get much better over the coming years, as first base prospects are not exactly plentiful. So if there are going to be reinforcements on the way, they’ll have to start migrating from other positions on the diamond.
One other thing you’ll notice, which was much less of an issue at catcher, is that I’m only ranking players once positionally through out this entire series. That means, while guys like Buster Posey, Joe Mauer and Nick Swisher may have 1B eligibility, you’re unlikely to be using them there because their other eligibility is much more valuable. If you want to see how Posey stacks up against the rest of the 1B crowd, you can find that in the Top 500 that’s coming out at the end of the project. Also, I’ve included all DH-only players in with the 1B crowd because creating a DH-only list is pretty useless (until the National League adopts it).
And now your top 50 dynasty league first basemen, with commentary:
#1 – Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
#2 – Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers
#3 – Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels
It’s nearly impossible to quibble with the fact that these three should be the top tier at the position. However, once you get into ranking them, the quibbling may never stop. I view Votto and Fielder as essentially a coin flip, with my tiebreaker going to Votto because his body type is one that traditionally holds up better as hitters age. That said, Fielder has been one of the most reliable players in all of baseball and is making great strides to reduce his strike outs – which should allow him to continue to hit for a solid average. Pujols comes in third mostly because of his age, as he’s more than three years older than either Votto or Fielder. I’m not nearly as down on Pujols in the short term as some others (he’s my #1 option at the position in 2013 alone), but those extra years make a big difference when the short-term value is a toss-up.
#4 – Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
#5 – Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays
This one is a simple choice of whether you believe in the decline or the breakout. And as much as I do think that Encarnacion’s step forward was legit, I can’t put him ahead of Gonzalez, who I like to get back to a more typical level of performance for him in 2013. Plus, if you didn’t look at their birthdays, you’d probably think E5 had a few years on Gonzalez – however, he’s only seven months younger (they will both be 30 on Opening Day). I wrote more about Encarnacion here.
#6 – Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
Yes, this is an aggressive ranking, but I’m still very bullish on Hosmer’s long-term value. And plus, once you see the players listed behind Hosmer, you’ll see that while it’s certainly a leap, it’s not a huge leap. For me, Hosmer still has MVP caliber upside as a potential .300-30-15 type of player – and he’s still only 23 years old. I would not be surprised at all if he reestablished himself as one of the preeminent young hitters in the game this season and ended up at #1 on this list for 2014. More on Hosmer here.
#7 – Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s really hard to look too far past a first baseman who steals 18 bases, especially when they also have 25+ HR potential and can hit for a decent average. What Goldy has going for him, ahead of the next two names on this list, is the fact that his 1B eligibility is real.
#8 – Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
#9 – David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (DH)
These two are grouped together for good reason – you just wish they would always have 1B eligibility. Butler actually will go into 2013 with the designation, due to exactly 20 games played at the position this past season; however, Ortiz and his 7 games are left out in the cold. If given the choice of these two players over the next two seasons (assuming they both had the eligibility), I still take Big Papi, as I think there is an elite season or two left in his bat (like he was on his way to in 2012 before getting hurt). Beyond that, it’s clearly Butler and his value is buoyed by the fact that he may pick up year-to-year 1B eligibility once he moves on from Kansas City. He’s below average at the position, but he’s playable.
#10 – Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
#11 – Ike Davis, New York Mets
Two more young power bats, Rizzo and Davis bring slightly different skill sets to the table. Davis has the potential for more power, as he demonstrated by hitting 32 HR in a down year. Rizzo has the potential for a higher average, as he strikes out less and has more of a line drive oriented swing. Both should carve out nice careers as back-end of the top-10 caliber first base options until conditions improve at the position. I wrote more about Davis here.
#12 – Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
Oh how the mighty has fallen. Once a lock for a top-5 spot on any list like this, Teixeira has failed to adjust to the litany of shifts that he sees, and his batting average has suffered. And while I expect his power to bounce back to around the 30 HR mark in 2013, he is never going back to the player who was once good for a .280-.300 average on a yearly basis.
#13 – Jonathan Singleton, Houston Astros
#14 – Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
#15 – Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals
I’m optimistic about both of these players having a second act to their careers. And while LaRoche got off to a better start from a performance angle (hitting .271 with 33 HR), don’t underestimate the importance of Morneau getting on the field for 570 PA. I like Morneau to take another step forward in 2013 in his return from post-concussion syndrome in both the average and power departments.
#16 – Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
While it’s true that Konerko has nearly epitomized the consistent performer for over a decade now, there’s no ignoring the fact that from Memorial Day to the end of the 2012 season, he hit .254/.324/.400 with 15 HR and 42 RBI. And going into his age-37 season no less. By no means am I saying he can’t bounce back for another season or two, but it’s folly not to at least consider that this was the beginning of the end for the fantasy star.
#17 – Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres
Don’t sleep on Alonso, who hit .285/.352/.430 with 6 HR and 39 RBI in 256 second half at bats during 2012. With the aid of some slightly closer fences from 2013 going forward, I like Alonso’s chances of becoming a high-average 1B with at least average power. He can be a poor man’s Adrian Gonzalez.
#18 – Dan Vogelbach, Chicago Cubs
#19 – Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Freeman is great in a deep league because he won’t hurt you anywhere and he’ll probably come cheap. But in a 14-16 team league (or shallower), he’s likely to always be a guy you’re on the look out to replace. As opposed to Davis, Rizzo and even Alonso, there’s not a whole lot of upside with Freeman, and he may just top out as a .275 hitter with 20 HR a year for the rest of the decade. There’s certainly value to that, but he’s closer to replacement level than you’d want out of a 1B.
#20 – Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
The biggest question with Belt is how much power he’s going to have going forward, as he’s just not a very valuable guy if his HR totals hover in the teens. The strikeout rate (23.9% in the majors and 22.7% at Triple-A) doesn’t lend itself to high averages, so unless he wants to start stealing 20+ bases a year, it all boils down to the power. And for the record, I think he’ll top out in the low 20’s — it just may never happen while he’s in San Francisco.
#21 – Kendrys Morales, Seattle Mariners
It’s amazing to say that a player moving to Safeco is going into a better offensive environment, but that’s precisely what it looks like for Morales.
#22 – Chris Carter, Oakland Athletics
When a slow-developing slugging prospect hits 16 HR in 67 games, while playing in a home park that stifles power, I’m paying attention. That K-rate of 31.5% is atrocious, but there had to be a reason he’s not 15 spots higher on this list.
#23 – Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
#24 – Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox
We’re getting close to the end of the line with both of these guys, and the end won’t be pretty. Maybe if you’re lucky, you can sneak another 30 HR season or two out of them, but with the other stats they’ll put up, you’ll probably wish it wasn’t your mess to clean up.
#25 – Lance Berkman, Texas Rangers
Ladies and gentlemen, I present your new DH in Texas. If he could get 500 AB, he’d be a top-10 option at the position in 2013, but I certainly wouldn’t put any money behind that one. He’s also still only 35, so don’t assume this is a one-and-done type of deal – if he hits, he may stick around.
#26 – Mark Reynolds, Cleveland Indians
Reynolds is the perfect type of hitter to have on your bench. He’s extremely streaky, he can carry a team when he’s on and it’s not terribly difficult to tell when he’s in the midst of a hot streak.
#27 – Matt Adams, St Louis Cardinals
#28 – Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers
You don’t have to go much further down this list to find out who the Berkman signing was bad for from a fantasy angle. With 7 spots already spoken for in the lineup (Beltre, Kinsler, Andrus, Cruz, Pierzynski, Berkman, Murphy), Moreland would have to beat out and hold off at least two top-150 prospects (Profar, Olt, Martin) for playing time. And if he gets traded, he’s almost certain to end up in a worse offensive environment.
#29 – C.J. Cron, Los Angeles Angels
#30 – Ronald Guzman, Texas Rangers
#31 – Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners
Yes, this list is starting to get pretty ugly at this point. Smoak gets the nod over the rest of these bats because he both had the highest pedigree as a prospect and even last year, he still hit 19 HR in 132 games. The new fences should help Smoak, and if he gets traded because of the Morales acquisition, even better – Smoak hit a horrifying .198/.270/.289 with 4 HR in 232 AB in Safeco versus .235/.308/.434 with 15 HR in 251 AB on the road.
#32 – Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers
With Corey Hart scheduled to miss at least the first month of the season, Gamel will get his last shot to prove he should be in the Brewers’ long-term plans. I still think the guy can hit in the major leagues, but at 27 years old, he’s running out of chances.
#33 – Brett Wallace, Houston Astros
#34 – Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
Sure, either of these guys could be good again – I’m just not betting on them actually doing it. For Wallace, it’s getting back to his minor league glory days. He didn’t embarrass himself down the stretch in 2012, which is a start, but he’s got to improve his strikeout rate. For Lind, he needs to rediscover the power stroke. When he’s hit for fewer than 20 HR in a season, it’s because he’s hitting too many ground balls. In fact, his only two seasons of a GB rate higher than 45% were 2008 (50.9% GB rate, 9 HR) and 2012 (48.3% GB rate, 11 HR).
#35 – Brandon Moss, Oakland Athletics
#36 – Luke Scott, Free Agent
#37 – Travis Hafner, Free Agent (DH)
#38 – Carlos Lee, Free Agent
#39 – Travis Harrison, Minnesota Twins
#40 – Matthew Skole, Washington Nationals
There are many divisive prospects in baseball today, but with the exception of Darin Ruf, Skole might be the one with the widest range of opinions. Yes, he hit .291/.426/.559 with 27 HR across Low-A and High-A, and followed that by hitting .305/.419/.525 with 3 HR in the AFL, but he’s also 23 years old and struck out in nearly a third of his at bats and is a bad defensive 3B (hence his appearance on the 1B list). Let’s wait until he shows he can hit at Double-A before we get too excited, shall we?
#41 – Hunter Morris, Milwaukee Brewers
And to see how excited we get about 24 year olds who put up a .920 OPS in Double-A, see Morris. The bar is just so high as a 1B prospect.
#42 – James Loney, Tampa Bay Rays
#43 – Carlos Pena, Houston Astros
#44 – Matt LaPorta, Cleveland Indians
#45 – David Cooper, Toronto Blue Jays
#46 – Gaby Sanchez, Free Agent
#47 – Mauro Gomez, Boston Red Sox
#48 – Matthew Olson, Oakland Athletics
#49 – Casey Kotchman, Free Agent
#50 – Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
I can’t even.
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Love the series and the site. Allen Craig?
Thanks – I appreciate that. Craig is ranked as an OF, and I’ll give you a hint — I like him a lot..
Nice. Think he’d have topped Hosmer here?
Yes – if I ranked Craig at the position, he’d be above Hosmer, in the AGonz/E5 tier. The dude can rake.
Freddie Freeman is way too low. The dude is 23 years old and he is about to start his 3rd full season in the majors. He reduced his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate in 2012. Granted his BA dropped a bit but the increase in runs and RBI’s make up for that.
I just dont understand how you can call this a dynasty list and have the likes of David Ortiz, Mark Texiera, Justin Morneau, Paul Konerko among others…listed higher than Freddie!
Just about every ranking list I have seen for 2013 even has Freddie ranked higher than all 4 of these guys. And he is still 3-4 years from his prime years, these other guys wont even be in the league in 4 years!
I think the biggest issue here is that you cited runs and rbi as though it’s a skill that he can control. Yes his lineup has improved (with the recent Upton trade), but his skills remain the same and in a dynasty ranking you can’t account for lineup all that much since it will change over time. Freeman is generic. I agree he has more value in deeper leagues but in the smaller ones as Bret mentioned, he’s just blah. There are random pop up guys at 1B that will rival his numbers year in and year out. Chris Davis and Garrett Jones did in 2012, but they don’t get the hype that Freeman does. Freeman’s swing isn’t geared for power and I would be surprised to see him pass 25 homers in the near future. A 1B who hits < 25 HR and OPS' under 800 isn't exactly something to go crazy for.
Citing other lists doesn't really help either, as this is Bret's list, not anyone else's so I'm not sure why they'd have bearing on this one. Again, I think the ranking of the older players over Freeman is due to positional depth. Those guys are more impact guys whereas Freeman is a safe play with limited upside. At least that's my interpretation.
Freddie hit 23 homers last year and missed 15 games. I’d be more surprised if he didn’t reach 25 this year considering he dealt with eye problems all season last year. I’d bet on him topping 30 this year actually.
Freeman will hit 25 bombs this year. I understand about the lineup issue and how you cant really count on “counting stats” but again this was listed as a dynasty league list. I would keep Freeman over any of those 4 guys for 2013 and beyond. He is 23 years and just starting his career and it has started off pretty decent in his first two years. He has way more upside then the players I mentioned.
Oh well if you say he’ll hit 25 home runs this year then ok
Freeman hit 21 home runs in 2011 at the age of 21. He hit 23 home runs in 2012 at the age of 22. Why do you think it is unreasonable to project him to hit 25 or more home runs in 2013 and beyond? Very few players have maxed out their power at the young age of 22. There is every reason to expect Freeman’s power to steadily improve for several more years.
I think Craig nailed most of the reasons for Freeman’s ranking. I’m just not that bullish on his future. I completely understand the other side of this argument, and figured this wouldn’t be a terribly popular ranking. Just because a player is young and has been pretty good doesn’t mean that he’ll get better as he approaches his prime. When I look at Freeman, I don’t see a potential .300 hitter or someone who can hit 30 HR. Maybe he’ll take a step forward in 2013 and make me look dumb for this (which is entirely possible), but as of this moment, that’s where I believe his value is.
The list is a dynasty ranking, but there’s no question that 2013 performance is more important than 2014 performance, which is in turn more important than 2015 performance, and so on. For 2013, I believe guys like Teix, Ortiz and Konerko have more upside than Freeman – and would have him behind all of those players in a 2013 only ranking.
Long-term, I just have my reservations that he’ll ever be far enough above replacement level at the position where you’ll just be happy sticking him there and not worrying about the position for a few years. He’s a good hitter, but it’s a tough position for a player without a ton of upside compared to other 1B.
personally i have freeman top 10 this year, possibly top 7 2014 potential. 25/90 is an easy projection for 2013 season. low BABIP last year, but uptick in Slug, dropped his K rate a few from rookie year, upped his BB% a few as well from rookie year. going into year 3. eye problem at times last year as well… wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a 30/100+ 2013.
Again, I understand that side of the argument. I just don’t see the same upside in his bat. Personally, I would be pretty surprised if he hit 30 HR in 2013.
From 35 down pretty much are unrosterable unless Carlos Lee somehow gets signed to a team that has a stacked line-up.
I would swap out some of those names and add Neftali Soto, Darin Ruf, and Alex Dickerson. Especially in dynasty I’d take a flier on those 3 before any of the bottom 15.
I agree that the bottom of this list is pretty rough, but I also think that there’s a better chance of those guys having short-term value than either Soto or Dickerson having any long-term value. Even at the bottom of the list, both Kotchman and Helton hit .300 with double-digit HRs over at least 400 AB in 2011. They’re very unlikely to do it again, especially after poor years in 2012, but they’ve at least done it. The value doesn’t always have to be in the guy who could make the majors someday – sometimes it’s in the guy who could have a month-long stretch in 2013 that makes him playable.
What is your opinion of Nick Delmonico (BAL)? Is he a prospect that could make the late side of this list with a good showing this year?
Delmonico absolutely could make this list next year with a decent showing at High-A. In fact, he was the last prospect cut from this list. He’s unlikely to ever be a guy who can hit for much average, so he’s likely going to have to make his money getting on base and showing power. He did show a good eye at the plate and decent pop in Low-A, so that’s a good start. But to take that next step, he needs to show he can stay healthy as well.
isn’t vogelbach essentially hoping to be matt adams in 2 or 3 years? they’re both fat, they both rake, but then one of them’s dominated the high minors and dipped a toe in the majors already whereas the other one hasn’t played a game in full-season ball. so, i mean, i love them both but i’m not sure i get ranking the rookie-baller higher.
personally i think adams is radically underrated by a lot of fantasy analysts because they’re not really accounting for the fact that his mediocre rankings from traditional prospect analysts are based on heavy discounts for his defense, body, position, etc. and we don’t really care about any of that unless it keeps him from playing at all, which it looks like it won’t. we just care about the bat. and it looks to me like his bat is one of the best in the high minors right now.
No, because Vogelbach played a A- a year younger than Adams, has a wRC+ 20 points higher, had a walk rate of almost double Adams, and had an ISO .110 points higher than Adams. Vogelbach has a plus hit tool (possible plus-plus) and easy plus plus power. He’s going to be limited by defensive ability, but if he ever makes it to the big leagues watch out.
That’s selling Vogelbach way short. I agree that Adams gets generally underrated, but here’s why Vogelbach does and should rank above Adams:
Age – Adams will turn 25 during the 2013 season. Vogelbach did all of his damage in rookie/short-season ball at age 19.
Power – Yes, they’re both overweight and first basemen, but that doesn’t really mean anything. So were Prince Fielder and Ken Harvey. Vogelbach has more power and swing that’s more suited for future power.
Approach – One of the biggest knocks on Adams is his approach. He’s never had a walk rate above 8% in any part of any season in his pro career (including 5.5% at the major league level). Vogelbach had a 12.4% walk rate as a teenager, mostly in short-season ball where he was young for the level. Sure, it’s a small sample, but it’s also something Adams has never done, even in his small samples.
Being at the midway point of this season, would you still rank Paul Goldschmidt this low? I am in a longtime keeper league and am thinking about swapping him for Fielder. Would this be a bad idea? I’d really appreciate anyone’s thoughts. Thanks in advance.
I’d still rather have Fielder. Goldy is great, and I’m certainly coming around on him being a top shelf talent, but Prince is no slouch.