The Context –

I signed up for a newly-formed 20-team dynasty league so that I could write about building a roster the old-fashioned way (as opposed to the series on my rebuilding project). It is a 7×7 H2H league that uses all of the standard 5×5 categories, plus OPS/Total Bases for hitters and Quality Starts/Holds for pitchers. The active rosters are one player per position (OF are broken out by LF/CF/RF) plus a Utility player on offense, and nine pitchers (2 SP, 2 RP, 5 P). On top of that, there are 7 reserve spots, 3 DL spots and 20 minor league spots. So, all in all, it’s a very deep league with an active lineup that skews a little towards pitching and deep minor league rosters (400 total prospects will be rostered). Oh, and by the way, I’m the Minnesota Twins.

So here is a review of rounds thirteen through sixteen of the draft. I’m going to look at who I picked and why (along with others I was considering) and who the best picks of the round were (mine excluded) from both a value perspective and an upside perspective. Hopefully this helps with either your valuations of these prospects or the preparation for your own dynasty league draft.

Round Thirteen –

13.1     Texas Rangers: Ryan Verdugo (SP, Kansas City)
13.2     Colorado Rockies: Carlos Sanchez (2B, Chicago AL)
13.3     Toronto Blue Jays: Alfredo Silverio (OF, Los Angeles)
13.4     Seattle Mariners: Junior Lake (3B, Chicago NL)
13.5     San Francisco Giants: Juan Jaime (RP, Atlanta)
13.6     Oakland Athletics: Chris Reed (SP, Los Angeles NL)
13.7     Cincinnati Reds: Travis Harrison (1B, Minnesota)
13.8     Houston Astros: Gioskar Amaya (2B, Chicago NL)
13.9     Detroit Tigers: Joe Musgrove (SP, Houston)
13.10  Chicago Cubs: Daniel Robertson (3B, Oakland)
13.11  *Minnesota Twins: Drew Vettleson (OF, Tampa Bay)*
13.12  Washington Nationals: Barrett Loux (SP, Texas)
13.13  Los Angeles Angels: Francisco Peguero (OF, San Francisco)
13.14  San Diego Padres: Mark Rogers (SP, Milwaukee)
13.15  Pittsburgh Pirates: Rafael Ortega (OF, Colorado)
13.16  Baltimore Orioles: Jed Bradley (SP, Milwaukee)
13.17  Milwaukee Brewers: Tyler Pike (SP, Seattle)
13.18  New York Mets: Dellin Betances (RP, New York AL)
13.19  Arizona Diamondbacks: Elier Hernandez (OF, Kansas City)
13.20  Boston Red Sox: Bobby Borchering (1B, Houston)

My selection: I had a couple of players from the Low-A Bowling Green team on my wishlist at this point in the draft, and decided to go with the one who actually put together the best season of the group. Drew Vettleson was a supplemental first round pick (42^nd overall) in 2010 and finally got his first taste of full-season ball this year, where he put together a triple slash line of .275/.340/.432 with 15 HR and 20 SB. The pros with Vettleson is that some scouts see him as above-average with both the hit and power tools, along with enough speed to steal a moderate amount of bases at the highest level. The con is that he’s already 21 years old and will turn 22 around the 2013 All-Star Break. The Rays like to take it slow with their prospects, but he’s not getting any younger. [Other considerations: Ronny Rodriguez, Jimmy Nelson]

Best value: Mark Rogers (13.14), Dellin Betances (13.18)
Best upside: Travis Harrison (13.7), Elier Hernandez (13.19)

Rogers is likely to start the 2013 season in the Brewers rotation, and he’s already had more fantasy value in his career than most of the players taken in this round will ever get. If he can stay healthy, he could be a solid contributor. Dellin Betances was a top-100 prospect last year, but then the wheels completely fell off. Could an improvement to his control in the AFL be a sign of things to come in 2013? Travis Harrison could have a potentially special bat, but it will be limited to 1B. Elier Hernandez was a big bonus baby from the international market, getting $3m from the Royals. They challenged him in 2012 by sending him state-side and he did not respond – look for him to repeat rookie ball in 2013.

Round Fourteen –

14.1     Boston Red Sox: Neil Ramirez (SP, Texas)
14.2     Arizona Diamondbacks: Ronny Rodriguez (SS, Cleveland)
14.3     New York Mets: Aderlin Rodriguez (3B, New York NL)
14.4     Milwaukee Brewers: Mitch Nay (3B, Toronto)
14.5     Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Wheeler (3B, Arizona)
14.6     Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew Chafin (SP, Arizona)
14.7     San Diego Padres: Kevin Quackenbush (RP, San Diego)
14.8     Los Angeles Angels: Cam Gallagher (C, Kansas City)
14.9     Washington Nationals: Dillon Howard (SP, Cleveland)
14.10  *Minnesota Twins: Jimmy Nelson (SP, Milwaukee)*
14.11  Chicago Cubs: Jesse Winker (OF, Cincinnati)
14.12  Detroit Tigers: Nomar Mazara (OF, Texas)
14.13  Houston Astros: Max Kepler (OF, Minnesota)
14.14  Cincinnati Reds: Luke Jackson (SP, Texas)
14.15  Oakland Athletics: Carson Kelly (3B, St Louis)
14.16  San Francisco Giants: Randall Grichuk (OF, Los Angeles AL)
14.17  Seattle Mariners: Nick Tropeano (SP, Houston)
14.18  Toronto Blue Jays: Danny Barnes (RP, Toronto)
14.19  Colorado Rockies: Josh Bowman (SP, Oakland)
14.20  Texas Rangers: Nicholas Kingham (SP, Pittsburgh)

My selection: Jimmy Nelson is one of my personal cheeseballs. He’s a big dude with mid-rotation stuff and an innate ability to keep the ball on the ground. His control issues (37 BB in 46 Double-A innings and 14 BB in 22 AFL innings) are more of a reflection on his level jump than an utter lack of the tool. As he refines his approach, those numbers should come back down and he could put himself on the fast-track to Milwaukee. [Other considerations: Nomar Mazara, Tyler Goeddel]

Best value: Ronny Rodriguez (14.2), Nick Tropeano (14.17)
Best upside: Nomar Mazara (14.12), Max Kepler (14.13)

Rodriguez was a guy firmly on my radar, as he’s got a lot of pop for a middle infielder. His approach clearly needs work, but he has the raw tools to be a guy you need to know in fantasy. Tropeano was extremely impressive this year, as the numbers he put up in the most extreme hitting conditions in the minors (Lancaster) were fantastic. His change-up is an easy plus pitch, which lends itself to lots of gaudy numbers early in the minors, but remember that he’s still a projected #4. Mazara’s raw power is the stuff that dreams are made out of, and if he can put that package together, he could make multiple All-Star teams – but the odds of that are small. Kepler took a big step forward this year and actually put up good numbers in his second trip to the Appy League. Another step forward in 2013, and he should be a top-100 prospect.

Round Fifteen –

15.1     Texas Rangers: Jermaine Mitchell (OF, Oakland)
15.2     Colorado Rockies: Dan Black (1B, Chicago AL)
15.3     Toronto Blue Jays: Deck McGuire (SP, Toronto)
15.4     Seattle Mariners: Angelo Gumbs (2B, New York AL)
15.5     San Francisco Giants: Nathan Karns (SP, Washington)
15.6     Oakland Athletics: Sean Coyle (2B, Boston)
15.7     Cincinnati Reds: Matt Purke (SP, Washington)
15.8     Houston Astros: Adam Morgan (SP, Philadelphia)
15.9     Detroit Tigers: Taylor Lindsey (2B, Los Angeles AL)
15.10  Chicago Cubs: Deven Marrero (SS, Boston)
15.11  *Minnesota Twins: Tyler Goeddel (3B, Tampa Bay)*
15.12  Washington Nationals: Joe Wieland (SP, San Diego)
15.13  Los Angeles Angels: John Hellweg (SP, Milwaukee)
15.14  San Diego Padres: Jonathan Griffin (1B, Arizona)
15.15  Pittsburgh Pirates: Roman Quinn (SS, Philadelphia)
15.16  Baltimore Orioles: Damien Magnifico (RP, Milwaukee)
15.17  Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Colon (2B, Kansas City)
15.18  New York Mets: Zach Eflin (SP, San Diego)
15.19  Arizona Diamondbacks: Sam Selman (SP, Kansas City)
15.20  Boston Red Sox: Keyvius Sampson (SP, San Diego)

My selection: And this was my other selection from Tampa Bay’s Low-A squad. Goeddel was the exception to the rule with the Rays, as the California high school product skipped short-season ball altogether and went straight to Low-A in his pro debut. All things considered, he acquitted himself pretty well as his splits can attest to. Prior to the Midwest League All-Star Break, Goeddel hit .232/.300/.365 with 57 K in 181 AB. After the break, he hit .264/.375/.378 with 37 K in 148 AB. Getting on base is important for Goeddel as he has above-average speed (he stole 30 bases in 35 attempts this year), but he’s not just a speedster – scouts project at least average power down the road. [Other considerations: Dillon Maples, Lance McCullers]

Best value: Adam Morgan (15.8), John Hellweg (15.13)
Best upside: Angelo Gumbs (15.4), Matt Purke (15.7)

How does a pitcher who had a 3.35 ERA and struck out 169 batters in 158 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last until the 15^th round of a draft like this? Because no one still knows who Adam Morgan is – they should though. Hellweg was part of the Greinke deal, and though his future is a little cloudy between the rotation and bullpen, he could see the majors in 2013. Gumbs is still mostly tools at this point, with borderline ridiculous bat speed at the center. Though 26 steals in 29 attempts (in just 67 games) is nothing to shake your head at. Matt Purke is another one of those ultimate risk/reward guys. He hasn’t shown ace-like ability since he was freshman at TCU, but if he can get healthy enough to get it back, watch out.

Round Sixteen –

16.1     Boston Red Sox: Jose Cisnero (SP, Houston)
16.2     Arizona Diamondbacks: Dillon Maples (SP, Chicago NL)
16.3     New York Mets: Lance McCullers (SP, Houston)
16.4     Milwaukee Brewers: Ty Buttrey (SP, Boston)
16.5     Baltimore Orioles: Danny Salazar (SP, Cleveland)
16.6     Pittsburgh Pirates: Anthony Alford (OF, Toronto)
16.7     San Diego Padres: Hiram Burgos (SP, Milwaukee)
16.8     Los Angeles Angels: Travis Jankowski (OF, San Diego)
16.9     Washington Nationals: Mitch Brown (SP, Cleveland)
16.10  *Minnesota Twins: Dawel Lugo (SS, Toronto)*
16.11  Chicago Cubs: Paco Rodriguez (RP, Los Angeles NL)
16.12  Detroit Tigers: Tzu-Wei Lin (SS, Boston)
16.13  Houston Astros: Matthew McGill (SP, Los Angeles NL)
16.14  Cincinnati Reds: Eury Perez (OF, Washington)
16.15  Oakland Athletics: Stetson Allie (3B, Pittsburgh)
16.16  San Francisco Giants: Adam Duvall (3B, San Francisco)
16.17  Seattle Mariners: Ethan Martin (SP, Philadelphia)
16.18  Toronto Blue Jays: Yan Gomes (OF, Toronto)
16.19  Colorado Rockies: Sammy Solis (SP, Washington)
16.20  Texas Rangers: Maikel Franco (3B, Philadelphia)

My selection: This selection was admittedly a little out of left field, but I made it for good reason. As I’ve mentioned in previous iterations of this thread, there are a lot of Jays fans in this league. I reached a little for Lugo, since I think he has a chance to break out in 2013 as a prospect – and if he does, he becomes a very valuable commodity. Lugo was one of the best hitters available on the international market in 2011, and despite an underwhelming showing in the GCL this year (.224/.275/.329), it’s complex-league ball and I don’t care about the stats. He has plus bat speed, burgeoning raw power and makes hard contact – if he starts to put it together in 2013 (at age-18), his stock will begin to soar.  [Other considerations: Rio Ruiz, Ethan Martin]

Best value: Dillon Maples (16.2), Ethan Martin (16.17)
Best upside: Lance McCullers (16.3), Anthony Alford (16.6)

Maples and Martin were two guys I did not want to have to cross off my list, but such is life. Maples is still running a little under the radar, but he did get a $2.5m bonus from the Cubs back in the 2011 draft as a 14^th round pick. He’s very risky, even for a pitcher, but he’s a big man with a big arm. Ethan Martin came to Philly in the Shane Victorino trade and continued his prospect status resurgence by striking out nearly a batter per inning to go along with a 3.48 ERA in just shy of 160 Double-A innings. McCullers was highly regarded heading into the 2012 draft, but fell to the supplemental round where the Astros signed him with some of the leftover money they had from Carlos Correa’s under slot deal. Not unlike A.J. Cole, McCullers is a good arm strength bet to make. Anthony Alford has a very minimal chance of ever playing in the majors. But with that said, if he were to make it, he could be a fantasy stud – he’d just need to focus on baseball.

And for the previous posts on this draft:

Rounds 1-3
Rounds 4-6
Rounds 7-9
Rounds 10-12