#TDGX Transaction Report: You Get a Fourth Round Pick! And You Get a Fourth Round Pick!

You’ve been following TDGX. You love TDGX. We all love TDGX.  And every week here at The Dynasty Guru, I am going to be bringing you commentary from our flagship experts’ league, directly from the participants themselves. Today we’re going to cover all of the transactions made post-draft, including a few trades–one involving an elite prospect and another involving a potential high-end starting pitcher.

The goal here is to give you insight into the moves made by our group of experts so that you can use this information the next time you need to make a trade or prominent FA move in your league. So let’s not mess around with too much longer of an introduction. We’re going to break this up into three sections: trades, major league additions, minor league additions.

TRADES

Craig Goldstein/Mauricio Rubio trade Arismendy Alcantara and a fourth round pick to Mike Buttil for Yordano Ventura.

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TDGX Recap – First Six Rounds From Pick #20

Since all of our draft slot bids failed to land we ended up at the mercy of the randomizer. The randomizer was not kind to us as it quietly doled out pick #20 in the for the TDG draft. While we realized we wouldn’t land one of the top 8 guys we were interested in pick #20 meant that we would have time to fully survey the landscape of the draft and make two picks at the turn. And as you will see it also pushed us into the decision that we would go very young with our team, grabbing prospects early with preference for those closer to the majors. Figuring if we didn’t have a top ten player leaving this draft perhaps we’d have one next year or in 2015.

In fact we even considered taking the combination of Buxton/Bogaerts with picks 20 and 21 to really fuel our youthy, prospecty fire. But after some discussion we decided that we didn’t want to completely punt 2014 and settled on Jason Kipnis as our main target, we liked the position, the age, the potential for 20-20 over the next 3-4 years and believed in his BA from 2013.

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Prospect Smackdown: Archie Bradley vs. Taijuan Walker

When I began asking for suggestions for this series a few months back before our focus on positional rankings, the TDG readers inundated me with interesting match ups of prospects of all sorts. You asked me to compare elite players. You asked me about J2 guys. You challenged me to write about players on the periphery of fantasy relevancy, and you ask about prospects who should have an impact in 2014.

However, there were two suggestions for Prospect Smackdown that came up far more frequently than any others. The first was Xander Bogaerts vs. Javier Baez, and while that never made it to print, it’s something my colleague Mauricio Rubio and I did discuss on our There Is No Offseason podcast here (minute 29).

The second was a battle between the two consensus top fantasy prospect arms right now in Bradley and Walker, and it’s an interesting challenge that will require going beyond a cursory look into statistics. If there’s one thing The Internet has taught me, it’s to give the people what they want. And so without further ado, here’s a look at two potential fantasy aces.

Prospect Smackdown No. 6 – Who’s the better prospect: Archie Bradley vs. Taijuan Walker Continue reading

Ben’s 11 Bold Predictions: The Flops

I’m all about originality when it comes to column ideas.

For example, shortly after the Home Run Derby, I asked you which prospects you thought would some day win that exhibition.

After Dylan Bundy got hurt, I deftly explored what Dylan Bundy’s injury meant for fantasy owners.

And now, with the regular season in the proverbial rear view mirror, I boldly go where no Internet Baseball Writer has gone before: I’m going to revisit my preseason predictions.

Yes, that’s right. I will now analyze things I wrote before the season after the season has seen its final day come and go. What’s more, I’ll be following my “all posts must have sequels” rule, and will bring you only the flops today. That means you get to look forward to my self-congratulatory post next week!

Without further ado, here are the things I got horribly, terribly wrong in March.

You can catch my original 11 “insights” piece here. Continue reading

Post Hype Prospect: Anthony Ranaudo

There aren’t as many prospects who have had as many ups and downs before reaching the major leagues as Anthony Ranaudo, but his performance in 2013 has firmly established him as the top pitching prospect for the Boston Red Sox and someone who should be owned in all dynasty leagues.

Anthony Ranaudo’s time in the spotlight began when he was a sophomore at St. Rose High School in Belmar, New Jersey, when he threw back-to-back no hitters during the regular season, and finished the season by throwing a two-hit shutout and hitting a two-run home run in the state championship game. In his junior year, Ranaudo put had a 7-0 record with a 0.96 ERA and 99 strikeouts, which he followed up by going 5-2 with a 1.32 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 49 innings in his senior campaign. As a cap to his season, Ranaudo was named to the Rawlings All-America team in 2007. He was drafted in the 11th round by the Texas Rangers, but opted to go to LSU.

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Dylan Bundy And TINSTAAPP

Dylan Bundy, who has yet to throw a pitch in a game this season, had a setback yesterday as he threw from 120 feet.

According to everywhere on the Internet, Bundy felt discomfort near his “right flexor mass,” where the forearm meets the elbow. Bundy was shut down for similar reasons six weeks ago, given a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection in April in the hopes he’d recover without surgery.

I am not a doctor and do not know what the future has in store for Bundy, but I’m also not new to monitoring pitching prospects, and this is not good news.

I bring this up simply because I want to call attention to something I wrote earlier in the season: something that, in hindsight, was foolish to publish. Here is my quick description of what Bundy brings to the table from my preseason Top 150 list.

The “safest” high school pitcher to come along in years has all the ingredients to be a Top 10 Fantasy starter for a very long time, though he may pitch in relief in 2013.

You see the word “safest?” I should not have used it. In fact, prospect writers and analysts should be fined every time they use the word “safe” and “pitching prospect” in the same paragraph. Except for this instance. Continue reading

Prospect Fatigue: A New Market Inefficiency?

I don’t want to sound like an alarmist doctor who is trying to frighten you into buying something I’m hocking, but Prospect Fatigue is a very real thing. Prospect Fatigue is when a prospect has been in the public consciousness for so long that they appear to have lost some of their luster, when in reality they contain the same potential we initially assessed. You see it all the time. In fact, there’s a good chance you’ve already experienced Prospect Fatigue in your past. If so, you’ve likely experienced some or all of the following symptoms:

involuntary slamming of one’s head into a desk
heartburn
indigestion
wistful staring at box scores
nausea
sudden anger
deep, soul crushing regret

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Is Byron Buxton The Best Fantasy Prospect In Baseball?

In case you’ve been living under a rock, Byron Buxton is having a decent season so far in Single-A.

Last year’s second overall selection boasts a modest .333/.435/.545 line through 240 PA, good for a wRC+ of 174. He’s walking and striking out nearly equally, which is remarkable for a player previously believed to need work on his approach. Yes, his BABIP is .386, but Buxton also has 26 stolen bases, and his speed is likely to lift his BABIP for much of his career.  He’s already hit 7 homers and 12 doubles.

Buxton is beating on Single-A as a 19-year-old, and the hype train is picking up plenty of speed.

There’s perhaps no better example of that than this recent piece by Jason Parks (subscription required), in which 18 of 20 scouts pick Buxton over Miguel Sano when asked who they believe is the superior prospect. When you consider how good Sano is – and that the two were largely considered interchangeable atop the Twins list in preseason rankings – that’s actually a pretty surprising result.

“Sano could change the fortunes of a team, Buxton could change the fortunes of the league. I think he could be that special,” read one scout’s review. “Potential to be the best player in the game. Elite.” Continue reading

The No. 1 Prospect For 2014 Is …

In preparation for our highly successful and critically acclaimed A Podcast For Your Eyes debut last week, our Benevolent Dictator Bret Goodwin asked Craig and myself to create individual Top 10 lists for 2014.

While I was initially glad to accept my assignment simply because I find these things enjoyable, I was surprised to find that it’s actually a pretty useful exercise, too. If you want to really put a prospect under a microscope and truly weight his upside, what better way than to ask yourself if you could ever see that man topping a list of all players in the minors?

I’ve carried that idea to its logical conclusion here, and am bringing you eight players I think could rank No. 1 over all on Top 100 or 101 or 150 lists before the 2014 season. The first four names might make you say “duh,” but reasoning is provided. The following four might surprise you, and reasoning is provided here as well. My Top 150 rankings from my 2013 list are in parentheses.

The Frontrunners

Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS (3)

I’m not sure if you guys know this, but I’m actually sort of high on Bogaerts. All he did last season was decide to post a wRC+ of 144 in High-A and of 159 in Double-A as a 19-year-old, all while convincing many that he can at least begin his career at shortstop. That’s, like, really good. I don’t think he sees a ton of MLB this season because there are two capable players head of him in Stephen Drew and Jose Iglesias, and if he does switch positions he’ll need time to adjust as well. But if Bogaerts is still prospect eligible next season and he still profiles as a shortstop, he’s almost guaranteed to top my list. Continue reading

A Podcast For Your Eyes: The 2014 Top 10 Fantasy Prospects Edition

As I hinted at in yesterday’s post on projecting the Top 10 fantasy prospects at this time next year, Ben, Craig and I tried something interesting on Wednesday night as we sat down on gchat and conversed for almost an hour and a half about the topic at hand. The following conversation has not been edited, abridged or otherwise touched (besides cleaning up our names so that it’s easier to read).

Without any further introduction, I present to you the Episode 1 of A Podcast For Your Eyes. If you like it, tell us and we’ll do them more often. If you don’t, tell us and we’ll forget this whole thing ever happened. And we’re off..

Bret:  whats going on guys?

Craig:  watching O’s/Rays over here

Ben:  watching NYY/BOS

Craig:  also eating a peanut butter and jam sandwich, because I’m 12

Bret:  i’m watching the mets start their WS run

Ben:  sooo playing MLB the show?

Craig:  I was going to say…can we have a moment of silence for Bret’s sanity?

Bret:  my sanity has been missing for a long time

Craig:  touche

Bret:  alright, so you guys have the consensus list, right?

Craig:  yes but I just dripped jelly on my shirt so I’m in crisis here

Bret:  save that gold for when we’re “recording”

Craig:  hahaha. ok problem solved, but you feel free to include it

Bret:  fair enough, i’m going to do an introduction, and then we’re just going to jump right in and ben and i can fawn over xander bogaerts

Ben:  im super good at fawning over bogaerts

Bret:  ha, i’m sure you are. alright, let’s do this

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