TDGX Draft Recap: Rounds 21-30

You know there’s a touch of baseball geek in you when the idea of drafting players in the 400-800 range sounds like a good time. Heading into the second half of this draft, Paul and I kept to our basic strategy of looking for the best values while keeping our team young as often as possible. You can find a recap of our fist 20 picks here. It was in these later rounds that we had to flesh out our starting roster before the player pool got too thin. At certain picks it was a struggle to find major league playing time. When it was all said and done we were still able to find some nice values and considering we didn’t sweat pitching in this draft (especially relievers), we were happy with the arms we ended up with. To the picks…

21.401 Alen Hanson

22.440 Gordon Beckham

23.441 Garrett Richards

We consider the Hanson pick to be a great value. Not only is he ranked about 80 spots higher in Bret’s TDG 500, but he’s still the talented shortstop prospect he was a year ago. While his power and average fell, his legs still work (30 SB) and he hit for solid average/pop from the left side of the plate. I went over his stock in more detail at the new ROTOscouting.com. Hanson fits right in with our team of shortstop prospects and bounce-back candidates. Gordon Beckham may eventually give way to Marcus Semien, but for our middle infield slot this year he’s a solid option at this point in the draft. The White Sox have an improved lineup and at 28 years old, Beckham is only one year removed from a 16-homer season. Garrett Richards has a lot of the qualities we are looking for in one of our later pitching picks – improving strikeout and walk rates, a ground ball rate north of 50%, and an age (25) that will hopefully help him hold his value for more than just the 2014 season.

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The Dynasty Guru’s Top 50 Dynasty League Shortstops, Nos. 21-50

From the 21st of January to the 20th of February, the writers at TDG will be taking you through our rankings position-by-position. As I mentioned in the primer, this year we’re doing things a little differently. Instead of having my personal rankings up on this site, like last year, these rankings for 2014 are of the consensus variety and being brought to you by all of the TDG staff. Everyone put a lot of work into this project, so we hope you enjoy the end result. And if you are looking for my personal dynasty league rankings, you can find them this off-season at Baseball Prospectus.

So we hope you enjoy the rankings package that we’ve put together here. And if you do, I hope that you will make a donation to show appreciation for the content you’ve seen here at the Dynasty Guru. You can do that through this link, or by clicking the “Donate” button on the top-right corner of the homepage. All donations are truly appreciated.

And now the remaining 30 of the Top 50 Dynasty League Shortstops, led off by an oldie, but still a goodie (at least for now):

21) Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 9)

Time to line up a replacement for this longtime fantasy stalwart in dynasty leagues, but don’t count him out just yet. He may be old but he still has a solid grip on the everyday SS job in Philly. He can be expected to put up usable, if not elite, fantasy numbers in 2014. I would expect a decent rebound over his down 2013 numbers, but older players are no sure bet to stay healthy. Tends to be a slow starter most seasons, heating up as the weather heats up. Keep an eye on him and snap him up for a bargain price in late May.

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Up the Middle: Dorssys Paulino, Raul Adalberto Mondesi

Kudos if you were able to read the title of this post with any kind of fluency. Right there is a sign that you’re a stand-up dynasty player. D-O-R-S-S-Y-S isn’t just a crappy Scrabble hand. It’s also the first name of one of the better (and younger) middle infield prospects that you’ll want to get to know sooner rather than later. Dorssys Paulino and Raul Adalberto Mondesi are two shortstops who have impressed in their first full season of pro ball, and both 18-year-olds are already creeping up some top prospect lists across the world wide web.

Paulino is about eight months older than Mondesi, so we’ll respect the elder and discuss him first. The Indians, like the Rangers, have a luxurious problem on their hands with all of these quality middle infielders in both the majors and minors. Paulino is one of the farthest away but no less exciting. He excelled in Rookie ball last year with 6 homers and 9 steals while slashing .355/.404/.610 in just 41 games.  Not too shabby for somebody who was just getting his feet wet as a 17-year-old. Mike Newman of rotoscouting.com praised Paulino as one of the best pure hitters he saw this past spring in Arizona. Continue reading

Rebuilding a Dynasty League Roster: One Year Later

A lot can happen in a year.

June 3rd, 2012 was the day I took over the roster which became the focus of my Rebuilding a Dynasty League Roster series, and now that June 3rd is upon us again, it seemed like a natural time to take a look at how the team is doing. As you may remember, the time horizon for my team is 2014, and I was pretty active in setting up my roster to look like a team I would actually own. In fact, of the 50 players (25 majors, 25 minors) on the team when I took it over, only 14 remain today. And that’s pretty extensive turnover for an owner like myself who tends to shy away enormo-trades and tries to stick with his guys, rather than go after each new flavor of the week.

Right now, the team is sitting at 3-6 through nine weeks, so it’s pretty clear that my horizon is not moving up. Hopefully with some of the reinforcements I’ll get during the second half, it will keep me on schedule for next year. For a refresher on the league settings, check out the first of my RDLR (no, that doesn’t stand for Rubby De La Rosa here) posts back from August 2012. The important information is that it’s a 16-team H2H points league. But now, I’m just going to run through the team and see how things have changed (hopefully for the better):

Starting Lineup – Hitters

6/3/12 6/3/13
C Matt Wieters Matt Wieters
1B Albert Pujols Albert Pujols
2B Chase Utley Chase Utley
SS Yunel Escobar Starlin Castro
3B Chris Davis Jedd Gyorko
OF Alex Rios Alex Rios
OF Jayson Werth Jayson Werth
OF Yonder Alonso Yasiel Puig
Util Aubrey Huff Yonder Alonso
Util Eric Young Jr Matt Joyce

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The Top 50 Dynasty League Shortstops

Now things are finally starting to look up. The difference between SS and 2B positionally is pretty eye-opening once you start including prospects, as 2B only has one top-40 prospect and SS has six. It really makes me think twice about ranking the dual eligibility guys on the SS list – although if I did it in reverse, the SS crop would look much weaker. However, when you look at just the values for 2013, the positions look closer to equal in value.

As with its middle infield counterpart, SS has a clear tier at the top and backs it up with prospect firepower. And I’ll start on that subject by answering an obvious question. I did rank Jurickson Profar at SS because that is his natural position and one which he will be playing in short order in the majors, despite the fact that he has 2B eligibility only in most leagues heading into 2013. So the exciting part is that although the position is gradually improving, there’s a lot more help coming – and we may not be too far away from another fantasy golden age at the position.

However, clearly we’re not there yet. In 2012, there was not a single shortstop to hit more than 25 HR and Derek Jeter was the only shortstop that hit over .300. There was only one triple-digit total in any counting stat at the entire position, and that was Jimmy Rollins’ 102 runs scored. This lack of high-end production is what allowed guys like Martin Prado and Marco Scutaro to be top-10 shortstops in 2012. This is going to change over the next couple of years and it’s going to be led by the first name on this list.

And now your top 50 dynasty league shortstops, with commentary:

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The Top 150 Dynasty League Prospects, Part 3 (#90-61)

Today is Day Three. Over the next 29 days, this site will be dedicated almost solely to the task at hand – the 2013 Dynasty League Rankings. If you’re looking for background on both the content you should expect and the dates you should expect them, check out the 2013 rankings homepage. And we’re kicking off the month-long project with the list that I’ve gotten the most questions about since the off-season started. The only difference between the original schedule and what you’ll see this week is that I’ve broken the Top 150 out into five parts, not three. Each day of the week, you’ll get thirty more guys until we culminate Friday with #1.

First, I have a couple of disclaimers specific to the prospect list before we jump in. These rankings are for fantasy purposes only, and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s range or a catcher’s pop time. Of course, these things do matter indirectly as they affect a player’s ability to stay at a particular position. So, while Austin Hedges may be a top-50 prospect in baseball, due in large part to his defensive value, he’ll be much lower in these rankings because his upside isn’t nearly as great for fantasy. Additionally, these rankings will take into account a player’s parent organization – so a pitcher likely to call Petco or Safeco home, will get a bump. Same with hitters who are likely to play at Coors or in Arlington. But most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup. So, in a vacuum, I’d rather have the #104 player on this list than #105 on my dynasty league roster right now, based on all of those factors.

Additionally, if you want to delve any further into the list or have specific dynasty league questions, either post them in the comments section below, catch me on Twitter at @dynastyguru or send me an e-mail to dynastyguru [at] gmail [dot] com and I will answer all of them. If you just want to say hello or tell me I’ve over/under rated someone you love/hate, that’s great too. I’m a firm believer that an ongoing dialogue is always more helpful than a singular monologue, and the goal of this is to be an additional resource in guiding your team to a championship.

So without any further ado, here is part three of the 2013 Top 150 Dynasty League Prospect list:

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Drafting a Dynasty League Roster: Minor League Draft, Rounds 7-9

The Context –

I signed up for a newly-formed 20-team dynasty league so that I could write about building a roster the old-fashioned way (as opposed to the series on my rebuilding project). It is a 7×7 H2H league that uses all of the standard 5×5 categories, plus OPS/Total Bases for hitters and Quality Starts/Holds for pitchers. The active rosters are one player per position (OF are broken out by LF/CF/RF) plus a Utility player on offense, and nine pitchers (2 SP, 2 RP, 5 P). On top of that, there are 7 reserve spots, 3 DL spots and 20 minor league spots. So, all in all, it’s a very deep league with an active lineup that skews a little towards pitching and deep minor league rosters (400 total prospects will be rostered). Oh, and by the way, I’m the Minnesota Twins.

So here is a review of rounds four through six of the draft. I’m going to look at who I picked and why (along with others I was considering) and who the best/worst picks of the round were (mine excluded). Hopefully this helps with either your valuations of these prospects or the preparation for your own dynasty league draft.

Round Seven –

7.1     Texas Rangers: Marcell Ozuna (OF, Miami)
7.2     Colorado Rockies: Brad Miller (SS, Seattle)
7.3     Toronto Blue Jays: Sonny Gray (SP, Oakland)
7.4     Seattle Mariners: Ronald Guzman (OF, Texas)
7.5     San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson (OF, Pittsburgh)
7.6     Oakland Athletics: Aaron Hicks (OF, Minnesota)
7.7     Cincinnati Reds: Joc Pederson (OF, Los Angeles NL)
7.8     Houston Astros: Stefen Romero (3B, Seattle)
7.9     Detroit Tigers: Victor Sanchez (SP, Seattle)
7.10  Chicago Cubs: Arodys Vizcaino (RP, Chicago NL)
7.11  *Minnesota Twins: Dorssys Paulino (SS, Cleveland)*
7.12  Washington Nationals: Cory Spangenberg (2B, San Diego)
7.13  Los Angeles Angels: Brandon Nimmo (OF, New York NL)
7.14  San Diego Padres: Bruce Rondon (RP, Detroit)
7.15  Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Wacha (SP, St. Louis)
7.16  Baltimore Orioles: Jairo Beras (OF, Texas)
7.17  Milwaukee Brewers: Luis Sardinas (SS, Texas)
7.18  New York Mets: Brett Jackson (OF, Chicago NL)
7.19  Arizona Diamondbacks: Kyle Gibson (SP, Minnesota)
7.20  Boston Red Sox: Christian Bethancourt (C, Atlanta)

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