Buying Billy Burns & Delino DeShields

The “elite power is becoming scarce” narrative has been greatly exaggerated by the fantasy community in the last calendar year simply because the data strongly supports the theory. What about stolen bases? We don’t talk about speed at great length in the offseason because it’s “always available on the waiver wire” and predicting stolen base breakouts can be a tougher challenge than finding anyone who actually watched the Entourage movie. Sorry Mark Wahlberg. I’ll be there for Ted 2, I promise.

If elite power is on the downswing, is elite speed in decline as well? The numbers of hitters who have swiped at least 30 bags has declined in each of the past two years since 23 hitters accomplished the feat in 2012. Last season, just 15 batters stole 30 or more bases. It’s also extremely rare to find hitters who consistently post elite stolen base totals year after year. The only players to eclipse 30 steals in each of the past three seasons are Carlos Gomez, Jose Altuve and Rajai Davis.

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Digging for Diamonds: Taylor Sparks

There comes a time in fantasy baseball where many of us decide it’s time to branch out and try a new league.  For many of you who spend time reading this site it is safe to say you are far more than the average fantasy baseball enthusiast.  Here at The Dynasty Guru we cater to dynasty league owners of all formats and roster sizes and recently I decided to branch out into an 85-man roster linear weights league where I found myself having to dig deeper than ever to find value.

The 85-man league that I participate in holds a Rule 5 draft, International draft, and a Rule 4 amateur player draft.  When I took hold of my team the Rule 5 draft had passed so myself and fellow TDG writer George Bissell had begun to prepare for the other two drafts.  The international pool is always much harder to figure out since translating stats from other leagues can by dicey but when preparing for the Rule 4 draft we decided a good place to start was organizational track record.

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The Dynasty Guru’s Top 125 Dynasty Outfielders, Nos. 21-40

Congratulations on surviving another off-season. Now that the new year is upon us, it’s time to spend the next month  traveling across the positional landscape, labeling players with numbers that correspond to their value. It’s the very definition of freedom. A ton of hard work was put into these rankings, and will continue to be put in as we bring you just an ungodly amount of information over the next month. We hope you enjoy the product we’ve created, and if you’d like to show appreciation for that work you can do so through this link, or via the donate button on in the upper right-hand corner of the homepage. All donations are truly appreciated.

The outfielders continue with one of the most difficult guys to rank in all of fantasy baseball…

21) Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 26)

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Craig’s Eleven Bold Predictions for 2014

11 Bold Predictions

You’re not here for intros. Here’s last year’s. Here’s the review of last year’s. Here’s this year’s train wreck:

1)      Michael Choice gets 400+ plate appearances

Mitch Moreland is playing through a might-be-tweaked oblique right now and I think Choice is good enough to hold on to the job if he can get a crack at it full time. Between his ability to rotate into the outfield corners and hit for power that would be functional in Oakland much less Texas, Choice should earn plenty of playing time. If he does, it’s fantasy gravy.

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Nick Doran’s Eleven Bold Predictions

Its time to have fun with some predictions. Some of my predictions are bold and some are BOLD but none of them are crazy. All of these things have a decent chance of actually happening, at least in my mind anyway. I can’t wait to brag about my psychic prognostication skills come October.

I am stepping out on a thin limb here with my first bold prediction because this rare feat has been done only one time in the history of baseball…

1. Billy Hamilton will steal 100 bases while scoring less than 100 Runs.

Take a look at Vince Coleman’s strange 1986 batting line:

PA — 670
R  — 94
H — 139
2B — 13
3B — 8
HR — 0
RBI — 29
SB — 107
CS — 14
BA — 0.232
OBP — 0.301
SLG — 0.280
OPS — 0.581
OPS+ — 62

That is all sorts of ugly. Coleman got a lot of fanfare that season because of his antics on the basepaths, but he was just plain terrible batting in front of Tom Herr, Jack Clark, Andy Van Slyke, Terry Pendleton, Willie McGee and Ozzie Smith. The two are often compared, but Billy Hamilton is likely to be a much better all-around player than Vince Coleman both offensively and defensively. Hamilton won’t hit many home runs but he will get a lot more doubles and will hit for a much better slash line than Coleman, who finished his career with a very poor .668 OPS. My bold prediction is Hamilton will match Coleman’s dubious feat his rookie year but will get much better as time goes by.

2. Joey Votto will be the National League MVP. Continue reading

Team Recap: Slap a 55 Present/60 Future Grade on Team Karaman

The TDGX Draft has been alternately slowly creeping and gallantly galloping along, and as I write this I’ve just made my 26th selection of the draft. You can read a more in-depth look at my first five selections here, and I’ll post my roster construction as it exists presently at the bottom of this piece. Here’s some briefer commentary on the picks I’ve made since that top 5 and how I see my squad shaping up.

6.112 Everth Cabrera, SS SDG

Cabrera was far and away the best SS option on my draft board here, and I was excited to be able to snap him up. His speed and stolen base efficiency is second only to what we assume is to come out of Billy Hamilton, and he was in the midst of a tremendous breakout before the suspension came down last year. He’s always shown an impressive ability to take walks despite poor power, and if he can couple a double-digit walk rate with the .280 AVG he was on pace for last year he’s a guy that can steal 60+ bases in a full season. At 27 I like what I’ve got here for the next 4 years, and between him and Braun I can launch a “Bash Brothers” redux marketing campaign: the Biogenesis Brothers. The kids will love it.

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TDGX Recap: Team Karaman and the Top 5

I drew the #9 pick for the Dynasty Guru draft, and it proved to be a more challenging slot that I anticipated. You can read about the bidding guidelines for purchasing draft slots here, along with some stellar analysis for the staggering 15-keeper price paid by winning bidder Mike Buttil for the right to draft Mike Trout 1st overall. In planning my pre-draft strategy I assessed very quickly that I was not going to be willing to go as high as I anticipated I’d need to in order to compete for the slot. I made a smaller wager on the 3 spot to see if I could snag Miguel Cabrera for a short-term run, but that didn’t pan out (I bid 4 slots, winning bid was 6). So I threw in a slot apiece on the 8th, 9th, and 10th spots with an eye towards hopefully grabbing Giancarlo Stanton in the first round followed by nice, evenly spaced picks for the duration of the draft.

The first part of the equation didn’t happen either as Stanton was popped at #8, one pick before me. I immediately regretted not going to 2 picks with my bid on that slot, even moreso after seeing what remained on the draft board. And what was left, you ask? A whooole lotta question marks, that’s what. Can you count on Hanley Ramirez to stay on the field, and even if you can what is the baseline performance expectation for him at this point, anyway? Can Ryan Braun come back from a half season of lost at-bats and again be the elite power/speed combo now that he’s (presumably) off the sauce? Can you count on Joey Votto for elite production in more than two categories? What do we make of Yasiel Puig? Did Troy Tulowitzki’s achilles just explode while I was typing this? Not a fun bunch of questions to be asking ahead of your first pick in an indefinite-keep dynasty league. Here’s how things went down:

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