When a young player has been in the major leagues for awhile it seems like they are older than they really are. It is uncommon for a player to break into the major leagues at the age of 20 or 21 but it does happen. There are usually a couple players who do it each year. Oftentimes those players struggle quite a bit their first year or two in the majors, Mike Trout being the exception that proves the rule. Guys like Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos, Manny Machado, and even Yasiel Puig and Freddie Freeman are much younger than people think they are. It is easy to forget that these guys are still younger than many or most top prospects. Many baseball fans and fantasy team owners fall into the trap of believing that a player who has been in the majors for awhile “is who he is” and fail to consider the context of the player’s situation. The reality is that all of the players on the list below are still kids who are a long way from reaching their peak performance. You can expect significant performance increases from every player on this list over the next several years, even the ones who are already stars.
The definition of a prospect as defined by the baseball scouting industry is a hitter who has not reached 130 ABs or a pitcher who has not yet thrown 50 innings in the major leagues, but that definition is misleading. That may be the cut-off for Rookie of the Year eligibility, but a 22 year old doesn’t cease being a prospect just because he has seen a modicum of major league time. Continue reading →
Earlier in the season I took a look at some notable fantasy prospects of the California League, and with the regular season schedule out here in the Southland winding to a close this week I figured it’d be a valuable time to check back in on a couple more names of note. Three of the more interesting fantasy prospects still in the league were on display when I took in the High Desert-Lancaster series last week, but before we get into their profiles I’d like to take a moment to add my standard disclaimer for pieces in this series: you should NEVER SCOUT MINOR LEAGUE STAT LINES. They help for context, sure, and while they do matter to the degree that they influence how other managers in your league (and, it’s okay to admit it, you) view prospects, minor league statistics shouldn’t ever be the bottom line tool you use for evaluation in dynasty leagues.
This is perhaps more true of California League stats than any other league. Among the High-A ranks this circuit’s .764 league-average OPS is nigh on 60 points higher than the Carolina League (.706) and almost 70 clear of the pitcher’s paradise that is the Florida State League (.696). The outlying nature of the league adds another vast layer of complexity when trying to analyze player performance from afar, and the High-A level is already tough enough as is. It doesn’t mean that every breakout performance in the league is a mirage, but it does mean that more often than not it’s a good idea to avoid making rash decisions about acquiring or selling prospects in your dynasty league when they’re mixed up with the arid desert air of the southwest. So consider what follows a cautionary tale, but one filled with hope and optimism for our nation’s fantasy baseball future.
One of my favorite prospects, and now one of my favorite players, Nick Castellanos is in this midst of a hot streak that has seen him raise his slash line from .253/.305/.397 on August 9th to .263/.312/.411 as of August 27th. Selective endpoints and all that, but I thought his recent stretch, combined with an overall mediocre season was worth taking a look at to determine what type of value he’ll hold. Basically, we’re asking the question that Herm Edwards answered years ago: Is he who we thought he was?
We had a bumper crop of elite prospects to play with this Spring. We had visions of new players joining our rosters and playing like the next Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig. The consensus Top 12 prospects this year were as good as we have ever seen. The excitement was at a fever pitch for prospect hounds like us, but the season ended up being a tremendous letdown. Some of it was due to injuries, while most of it was due to flat out poor performance. It just goes to show that patience is key when it comes to prospects — even the elite “can’t miss” prospects often struggle when they reach the majors.
For this discussion let’s focus on what I consider to be the consensus top 12. These are the guys that were ranked at the top of nearly every major list that was published last offseason. We will go down the list and review each prospect. The theme of the day is disappointment. Every guy on this list except for one or two had a disappointing season for one reason or another…
1. Byron Buxton, OF Twins
Buxton has been touted as the next Mike Trout, an all around superstar 5 tool talent. His season has been absolutely destroyed by injuries. He sprained his wrist early in Spring Training and was forced to sit out until May, then he played 5 games and re-injured the wrist again. He had to sit out another two months. He played 30 games at High A Fort Myers but didn’t perform as well as he did last year. His .718 OPS wasn’t too impressive but you could still see the talent and tools in action and see a future superstar. On August 13th he got promoted to AA and what happens? He got hurt in his very first game. He suffered a bad concussion during a diving collision in the outfield. Buxton is still an elite talent and a future star but this season was a total bust. Continue reading →
If you’ve been reading this site for a while you know that I’ve got a bit of a fetish for first base prospects. They almost never get national prospect love on account of their defensive limitations, and that in turn leads to an ever-present opportunity for dynasty league owners to pounce on undervalued assets. Back in October I wrote about some low-minors first base prospects that had my eye heading into this season, and now that we’re closing in on the end of the season here are a few next wave guys who’ve caught my eye in the low minors. Obviously all the standard caveats about stats in the low minors apply here, and unless you’re in a very, very deep league none of these guys are likely to be candidates to draft just yet this off-season. But all of them should be squarely on your radar heading into next season, as they represent some of the most intriguing performances from minor league first basemen in 2014.
You’ve been following TDGX. You love TDGX. We all love TDGX. And every week here at The Dynasty Guru, I am going to be bringing you commentary from our flagship experts’ league, directly from the participants themselves.
The goal here is to give you insight into the moves made by our group of experts so that you can use this information the next time you need to make a trade or prominent FA move in your league. So let’s not mess around with too much longer of an introduction. We’re going to break this up into three sections: trades, major league additions, minor league additions.
If you are a regular reader of TDG, then you are aware of the TDGX experts’ dynasty league. It’s a 20-team dynasty league with 40-man rosters of which we protect 35 players. What you may not know is that a group of readers set up a league that mirrors TDGX and is made up of readers from this site. The TDGR league recently had its trade deadline, just like TDGX, and we were sent some of the moves that were made for this post.
For some more league context the 40-man roster consists of 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, a 7-man bench, and 10 minor league spots. The bench can be composed of either major or minor league eligible players. Scoring is standard 5×5 categories and there is one catcher slot along with two utility slots. Players may be kept forever with no penalty or contract system in place. A big thank you to TDGR member ‘Kris’ for sending in what I think are some really interesting transactions. Here are the trades… Continue reading →