What To Do About: Back of the Rotation Prospects

Inspired by watching the Orioles absolutely hammer Anthony Ranaudo on Tuesday, and Brandon Workman on Wednesday, I thought it might be useful to look at the real value of back end rotation prospects in dynasty leagues.*

Continue reading

About these ads

Young Ace Smackdown: Danny Duffy vs Jake Arrieta

Danny Duffy and Jake Arrieta are both pitchers who have burst onto the fantasy scene this year despite very low expectations coming into the season. Their ownership rates in fantasy leagues were practically zero on Opening Day but that changed gradually as the season wore on and both are now owned in nearly all competitive leagues of 12 or more teams. In 5×5 roto leagues Arrieta ranks as the 23rd best starting pitcher in 2014 while Duffy comes in one slot behind at 24th. That is better than Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Jeff Weaver, James Shields and many other good pitchers.

If you compare their statistics you can see a lot of similarities:

Danny Duffy vs Jake Arrieta

Both look like excellent young fantasy starters. Both have stellar ERA and WHIP scores. Both have well above average fastball velocity. Since they look so much alike it seems this smackdown could end in a tie. We are going to have to look much deeper into their peripherals to figure out which of these guys is better than the other: Continue reading

Breakout or Fakeout: 2nd Half Risers

This time of year it’s always fun to start looking at some of the players who took big steps forward production-wise in the second half. It’s a valuable exercise for dynasty leagues, as it can be a big help in setting up early off-season target lists and getting a head start on thinking about keepers for next season. So today a simple exercise: I’ve sorted out the top 20 hitters in baseball for the second half by wOBA, and below are four who have performed most dramatically better than their first half efforts. Let’s take a look and see if we can identify anything helpful in the profiles of these guys.

Continue reading

The Dynasty Guru Experts League — August 2014 Update #TDGX

There is one month left to go in the inaugural season of The Dynasty Guru Experts League. Team McKahn has pulled out to a commanding lead, having gained 11 points in the standings since last month’s update. It is going to take a monumental comeback of epic proportions for anybody to catch him now. He has snared 191 of the 200 possible points and might not be done yet. It is shaping up to be a beatdown that will go down in legend. The rest of us are going to have our work cut out for us trying to dethrone Ian and Tim next year. I am up for that challenge!

As you know by now, all of the writers here at TDG have been playing in an epic 20-team dynasty league with fantasy baseball writers from all over the Internet. Matching wits with some of the best players in the country has proven to be quite a challenge and a ton of fun — exactly the way a fantasy league should be. Below you will find the complete standings as well as plenty of enlightening comments from the team owners themselves.

I will summarize the league setup here, but for a more in-depth overview of how it all got started read this: Welcome to The Dynasty Guru Experts’ League. The league is a dynasty league of course, with 30 man rosters Continue reading

Prospect Perspective: Nolan Arenado and Nick Castellanos are Still Elite Prospects

When a young player has been in the major leagues for awhile it seems like they are older than they really are. It is uncommon for a player to break into the major leagues at the age of 20 or 21 but it does happen. There are usually a couple players who do it each year. Oftentimes those players struggle quite a bit their first year or two in the majors, Mike Trout being the exception that proves the rule. Guys like Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos, Manny Machado, and even Yasiel Puig and Freddie Freeman are much younger than people think they are. It is easy to forget that these guys are still younger than many or most top prospects. Many baseball fans and fantasy team owners fall into the trap of believing that a player who has been in the majors for awhile “is who he is” and fail to consider the context of the player’s situation. The reality is that all of the players on the list below are still kids who are a long way from reaching their peak performance. You can expect significant performance increases from every player on this list over the next several years, even the ones who are already stars.

The definition of a prospect as defined by the baseball scouting industry is a hitter who has not reached 130 ABs or a pitcher who has not yet thrown 50 innings in the major leagues, but that definition is misleading. That may be the cut-off for Rookie of the Year eligibility, but a 22 year old doesn’t cease being a prospect just because he has seen a modicum of major league time. Continue reading

Scouting the Statline: More California League Bats to Watch

Earlier in the season I took a look at some notable fantasy prospects of the California League, and with the regular season schedule out here in the Southland winding to a close this week I figured it’d be a valuable time to check back in on a couple more names of note. Three of the more interesting fantasy prospects still in the league were on display when I took in the High Desert-Lancaster series last week, but before we get into their profiles I’d like to take a moment to add my standard disclaimer for pieces in this series: you should NEVER SCOUT MINOR LEAGUE STAT LINES. They help for context, sure, and while they do matter to the degree that they influence how other managers in your league (and, it’s okay to admit it, you) view prospects, minor league statistics shouldn’t ever be the bottom line tool you use for evaluation in dynasty leagues.

This is perhaps more true of California League stats than any other league. Among the High-A ranks this circuit’s .764 league-average OPS is nigh on 60 points higher than the Carolina League (.706) and almost 70 clear of the pitcher’s paradise that is the Florida State League (.696). The outlying nature of the league adds another vast layer of complexity when trying to analyze player performance from afar, and the High-A level is already tough enough as is. It doesn’t mean that every breakout performance in the league is a mirage, but it does mean that more often than not it’s a good idea to avoid making rash decisions about acquiring or selling prospects in your dynasty league when they’re mixed up with the arid desert air of the southwest. So consider what follows a cautionary tale, but one filled with hope and optimism for our nation’s fantasy baseball future.

Continue reading

What to do about… Nick Castellanos

One of my favorite prospects, and now one of my favorite players, Nick Castellanos is in this midst of a hot streak that has seen him raise his slash line from .253/.305/.397 on August 9th to .263/.312/.411 as of August 27th. Selective endpoints and all that, but I thought his recent stretch, combined with an overall mediocre season was worth taking a look at to determine what type of value he’ll hold. Basically, we’re asking the question that Herm Edwards answered years ago: Is he who we thought he was?

Continue reading