Miguel Almonte – SP – Kansas City Royals

Almonte has been the recipient of some buzz recently, with Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus reiterating that he’d prefer the 20-year old to former first round pick Kyle Zimmer recently. Almonte goes after hitters with a plus fastball. It arrives in the low to mid 90s but hitters don’t seem to pick it up all that well. The fastball is good, but the change up is Almonte’s bread and butter, with good separation from the fastball, arm speed and movement. He’ll throw both a slider and a curve, but neither pitch has declared itself the go-to breaking ball just yet. He’s got lots of development left in front of him, but he’s an exciting arm.

Arismendy Alcantara – SS – Chicago Cubs

I’ve written and talked about Alcantara a lot. Just after I wrote about him for Fake Teams though, Alcantara’s numbers took a bit of a dive. He’s coming out of that slump a little bit right now, but everything I said about him at the time holds true now. He’s got a good chance to stay at shortstop (though he is playing 2B some of the time at Double-A), and he’s going to be able to hit for enough power to make his stolen bases worthwhile. At 5’10/160 it’s unlikely he becomes a power threat, but he’s learning the strengths of his swing and is already more than halfway to his career high in homers, and showing a much better grasp for the strikezone as well. The slash line doesn’t look great right now, but at 21 years old and in his first taste of Double-A, Alcantara is a guy still believe in.

Stephen Piscotty – OF – St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals mercifully moved Piscotty to the outfield before the season, and it’s shown no ill-effects on his bat. He’s currently sporting a .308/.366/.542 slash line in 120 Hi-A at-bats. The only issue with that? He’s already 22 years old. That means if he keeps this up, we can expect an aggressive push to Double-A before the end of the year. Piscotty has a tough profile as he’s no centerfielder, and while the hit tool could be plus, the power is more gap power than anything else. He’s still a decent guy to have in extremely deep leagues, as I think he’s a probable major leaguer, and can be good trade fodder to guys who scout stat lines.

Off the Chart

Tyler Glasnow – SP – Pittsburgh Pirates

I just wrote about Glasnow for Fake Teams earlier this week, and I don’t mean to double up so much if you read me in both spots. However, he’s currently one of my favorite prospects going in the minor leagues. The strikeout potential is enormous, and while the walks are worrisome, I like to gamble on guys who can strike guys out as long as they have a semblance of control, and Glasnow has that. On top of that, Glasnow has a big frame and can throw a lot of innings, so he’s not like my other obsession Yordano Ventura, who just won’t be capable of logging the same amount of innings.

LeVon Washington – OF – Cleveland Indians

TDG’s very own Ben Carsley alerted me to the glory that is #WashTime’s twitter account. Aside from that though, this might be a weird pick for an off the chart selection. After all, Washington was a first round pick who didn’t sign, and then was taken in the second round the next year, so he’s clearly a highly talented dude. However, since signing in 2010, Washington has more than underwhelmed…until this season. He’s currently hitting .327/.444/.481 with an 10/11 K/BB ratio. Now, this is his second go-round (third if you count 6 games last year) at Lo-A, and he’s old for the level. But this is also a guy with a lot of talent who might finally be getting it. His tools started to re-emerge towards the end of 2012, and he’s shown 70 grade speed at times. He’s a high risk player given his previous struggles, but he could hardly cost much in any league, and could be a very nice investment.

Without any further introduction (because this post is long enough as is), I present to you the Episode 2 of A Podcast For Your Eyes.

Bret:  i’m back, babydoll!

Craig:  BRETTY WESTSIDE

Bret:  so you guys ready to kick this thing off?

Craig:  as long as you’re not being Lucy to our Charlie Brown, yes.

Ben:  i am prepared.

Craig:  but seriously I just logged off twitter, so yes I’m ready

Bret:  haha that’s hardcore

Craig:  I’m drinking though, so

Ben:  samezies

Bret:  THREEZIES

Craig:  if you can call what Ben is imbibing “drinking”

Ben:  ZZZZ (meta)

Bret:  zima livin’

Ben:  it was four z’s, guys. fourzies.

Craig:  what happened to you man? you used to be cool.

Bret:  i know, i was just assuming you were downing zimas like an extra in a pat benatar video

Ben:  i dont know who pat benatar is because im not [REDACTED] like you are which i creepily know because craig creepily knows.

Bret:  YOU KNOW WHO PAT BENATAR IS

Craig:  c’mon Ben. Even I know who Pat Benatar is
and we’re probably the same age

Ben:  all i know is she/he likes zima so he/she sounds kewl.

Craig:  ok Bret. Hit him with your best shot.

Bret:  on that note
welcome everyone, to the most recent installation of A Podcast For Your Eyes
joining me today, as always (the one time we did this before) is Craig Goldstein and Ben Carsley
say hello, gentlemen

Craig:  hello, gentleman

Ben:  pleasure to be here.

Bret:  which of us is a gentleman, craig?

Craig:  /panics
uh…Bret?

Bret:  good choice

Craig:  you sign the paychecks. there ARE paychecks, right?

Bret:  yes?
/ducks

Ben:  confirmed: paychecks exist

Bret:  so we are gathered here today to (mostly) discuss the top 500 dynasty league rankings which came out earlier today. and the first order of business..
let’s talk a little about what we look for in early season performance that either gets us excited or nervous

Ben:  wins and RBI mostly

Craig:  don’t forget runs

Bret:  you always were a sabermathemagician, ben

Ben:  i do it for the lulz. on a more serious note, i think scouting reports are wayyyy more important than stats this early but if i have to pick stats, K rates and BB rates, for hitters and pitchers alike.

Bret:  completely agree on the scouting report point

Craig:  I’ll third that, and second the walk and strikeout rates. Basically, approach is what I look for

Bret:  with small sample sizes, first hand reports are all the more important
and are we now at the point in the season where you guys are genuinely excited about guys, or are we still in a wait-and-see stage?

Ben:  i will look at stats if a player has a really aggressive assignment more than if he’s repeating a level or advancing traditionally. SSS, i know, but I think it helps provide a little context

Craig:  To Bret’s question…I think that’s situationally dependent. At this point I’m still holding to a lot of my biases
if it’s a player I thought was going to break out, and they ARE for the right reasons…then I get excited

Ben:  re: excitement — only if the scouting reports match. boring answer, but true. i am not excited about any players due only to numbers yet.

Craig:  if they’re struggling, I’m still going to feel like a correction is coming…unless as Ben says, the scouting reports say something is amiss

Bret:  now, can i assume that the statistical analysis means more for major leaguers than minor leaguers at this point?

Ben:  the higher in the minors you are the more stats matter, so on that scale, yes. but still, it’s 6 weeks.

Craig:  It definitely means more, just because the level of competition is going to be more consistent, but there’s still a lot of noise

Ben:  what say you on this matter, bret? tell us about your feelings.

Craig:  yes, grab a pint of ice cream and spill

Bret:  i’m all about contact rates at this point in the major league season, as they are the first things to stabilize statistically
so if a player has lowered his strikeout rate, i get a little excited

Craig:  this brings up a point I was discussing with someone in the comments of an article – what do you do with someone like Nate McLouth? He shows progression in all the right areas, including areas that are starting to stabilize…but basically his entire career begs to differ

Bret:  i like mclouth – even though that’s absolutely correct
which brings us into the next topic to cover
players we like more right now than we did in the pre-season
and i’ll start with mclouth, since he’s one of them for me

Craig:  ok, go cause I’m looking at his plate discipline number on fangraphs and it is literally screaming regression at me
I had to turn down the volume

Ben:  I’ve written about this at TDG and on Fire Brand, but Ranaudo — he seriously seems like he’s back from scouting reports, and he’s already in Double-A. we’re talking about a gifted pitcher who could be in the majors this year.

Bret:  well, it all depends what you think he’s going to be
(mclouth, that is)

Ben:  if you want to go MLB players, I dont know how you can’t be even more enamored with Machado than you were preseason, and that’s coming from someone who was already high on MM

Craig:  yeah, I’m in the same boat Ben. I was going to say Machado as well.

Bret:  oh boy, are we moving right into the fawning over manny machado section of this?

Craig:  I’ll add Jean Segura, who I liked a LOT already…

Ben:  nothing machado is doing is anything i didn’t expect, i just didn’t think he’d do it this quickly

Craig:  but I didn’t think he’d be what I thought he was so soon

Bret:  and that’s the point, right? that’s why we’re all so excited about him
it’s not that we didn’t think he had the talent, just that he’s showing it sooner than most expected

Craig:  exactly, and even though it’s been 6 weeks…we knew he had the talent. The probability of him doing this soon was just fairly low. But now that it’s happening, it’s not unreasonable to expect it to continue…unlike McLouth for me

Bret:  well, that’s true, but mclouth is still ranked well well well behind machado

Craig:  of course of course…I’m just saying why I buy one and not the other

Bret:  if mclouth is a .270 hitter with 12 HR and 30 SB, doesn’t that make him a legitimate starting outfielder in all leagues?

Ben:  it’s tough to envision a scenario in which you could rank machado behind mclouth in a regular league this season, nevermind a dynasty league

Craig:  yeah, my comp wasn’t a comment on their rankings, whatsoever and re: the starting outfielder comment…yes, IF he is those things

Bret:  i know, it’s just about setting expectations

Craig:  but he’s also never stolen more than 23 bases in his career

Ben:  yeah, i think that stat line is pretty unlikely

Bret:  it seems to me like those are realistic expectations based on his underlying stats and what he’s done in the past

Ben:  hahaha

Craig:  I don’t think his underlying stats are indicative of his talent level, even the ones that are reaching the stabilizing level

Ben:  he’s only hit over .270 once and he’s never hit 30 SB, so you’re assuming an all-around career year

Bret:  that’s fair – but other than the steals, isn’t this all stuff he’s done before?

Craig:  which was my point before. He’s got an 84% O-Contact% which is 14% higher than his career average. That’s a big thing to me.

Ben:  well, his only really good seasons were 08 and 09. maybe he has a career arc dissimilar from most, but that’s tough to project.

Bret:  absolutely

Craig:  Additionally, his OBP is higher than I’d anticipate it being

Bret:  well, let’s move on before this just becomes the nate mclouth show

Craig:  30 points above his career average, which says something to me, but yes…let’s move on

Bret:  jean segura – you guys buying this?

Craig:  yes yes yes
I mean, he’s not a .360 hitter
let’s make that clear immediately

Ben:  i don’t think he’ll hit .360, but i think he’s good yes. durability remains a concern for me.

Bret:  well, we all agree that he’s not a .360 hitter, but where do we think he falls from here on out?

Craig:  I think he’s a .300 shortstop with 30 stolen bases and enough pop not to hurt you.
from here forward? I’d say between .300-.310

Ben:  i think from here forward .270-280ish, but that’s still pretty good.

Bret:  i fall closer to craig’s side — i think he’s going to be a near .300 hitter

Craig:  again, I thought he could be a top fantasy shortstop, it’s the quickness of it that surprised me, so it’s very easy for me to believe this is real, even building in regression

Ben:  no injury concerns for you two?

Bret:  yep – but he’s also got more upside than just 30 steals in the speed department
i absolutely have injury concerns

Craig:  definitely there are concerns. He’s had multiple hamstring issues and I believe he has Vladimir Guerrero syndrome (different length legs), but I guess I’m saying I buy his talent

Bret:  but it’s not enough for me to slow down on getting excited about him

Craig:  and the injury concerns haven’t overwhelmed my appreciation of that talent

Bret:  any other players you have your eyes on so far? (on the major league level)

Craig:  Shelby Miller falls into the Jean Segura mold for me

Ben:  Chris Tillman

Craig:  Also, Carlos Santana is finally doing what we thought he could, and Alex Rios is having a second consecutive good year, both of which seemed impossible 6 weeks ago

Bret:  let’s start with miller
can he be a top-10 starter?
not this year, but in the future

Craig:  this year? next 5 years?

Ben:  the only reason I didn’t bring Miller up is because I had him as  my third-best SP prospect to begin with. love him.

Craig:  Yes. Yes I think he can.

Ben:  Yes, Miller can be a Top 10 guy.

Bret:  i’m with you guys — especially on that team

Craig:  yeah, he’s a monster prospect of course, but I also didn’t know if he’d dominate from the word go. He’s KIND OF doing Matt Harvey things, only not getting the same attention

Ben:  you look at the natural talent, the offensive support, that org’s history developing pitching … sky is the limit.

Craig:  what Ben said.

Bret:  indeed, so let’s jump to the next inevitable question: miller or harvey?

Ben:  oh god. that’s so tough.

Craig:  ugh this is a miserable decision. I always liked Miller better as a prospect.

Ben:  call me crazy … miller. by a hair.

Craig:  I think I’m with Ben. I don’t know that I have a great reason for this. Harvey has been an Absolute Stud. But I’m going to fall back on who I liked before and what I thought they could be. And that’s Miller for me

Ben:  the improvement with Harvey’s control is the only thing that makes me rethink this, but yeah, still slightly Miller.

Craig:  Yeah, Ben, I think it’s his control and that slider has jumped up a notch and I just don’t know if that’s going to hold.

Bret:  i’m taking the other side of this – i’ll take harvey

Craig:  Mets fan homer.

Bret:  but it’s no slight to miller

Craig:  seriously though, I think that’s just such a tough call, because I truly believe both guys are going to be tremendous assets in fantasy and real life, alike

Bret:  absolutely – i just think harvey is going to be a monster
scratch that
he is a monster

Craig:  you wanna go, Sayre?

Bret:  see a mets game? sure

Craig:  oh god, what did I do to deserve that?

Bret:  hiLArious

Ben:  Craig, I must admit I don’t know — to what team do you pledge your loyalty?

Craig:  oh I get it. Emphasize the LA because the Dodgers are terrible. YEAH WELL /searches for comeback, sits down, cries.

Ben:  wait i think i know

Bret:  i want to go back to chris tillman for a second

Craig:  I support the LA Red Sox
I want to go back to black (miss you Winehouse!)

Bret:  what can tillman be? is there a next level to his performance?

Ben:  Tillman can be a No. 2 SP in his prime and a good mid-rotation P for the majority of his career.

Craig:  Lots of innings too
I think there’s another level from what we’ve seen. I think that strikeout rate can jump, and he can return the walk rate to what we saw in 2012

Ben:  he’s a guy i had flagged as a “just in case” before the season, and now I own him in most of my leagues.

Craig:  He’s just so inconsistent

Bret:  i own him in a lot of leagues as well

Craig:  I’ll say that I believe he can reach the No. 2 pitcher level, but I’m not entirely optimistic, though I still like him as an asset

Bret:  the FB tendency in baltimore scares me a bit, but he’s been successful despite that

Craig:  I also like that he’s already bounced back from adversity. That’s an invaluable lesson and I like to see someone who has done that before

Ben:  ^agree.

Bret:  that’s a good point
so, on the opposite side, anyone we don’t like?
not, like, personally or anything

Craig:  I’m gravely concerned about Albert Pujols and his teammate Josh Hamilton

Ben:  i have a few younger options, but we can dive into this first. i’m starting to get really worried about pujols as well

Bret:  it’s been really bad

Craig:  the foot injury worries me, and I know he got off to a slow start last year, but I’m gonna leave that open ended. It’s just a lot of concern

Bret:  i’m more concerned about him from an injury perspective going forward than a performance perspective, though they’re clearly tied together

Craig:  well that’s kind of my concern. Slow start is one thing if he comes back and mashes…if he succumbs to injury, this season was just a flaming bag of poop

Bret:  if he could actually get healthy, i think he could be at least the 2012 version of him again, but the risk is that he doesn’t truly get healthy again

Ben:  from WARs around 9 to 7 in 2010, 4.3 in 2011, 3.6 last year. not what you want to see.

Craig:  Should we talk Hamilton, or is that beating a dead horse at this point?

Bret:  are we more or less concerned about hamilton than pujols? because i’m more concerned about hamilton

Craig:  Yeah, I’m with you. The contact percentage stuff and swinging outside the zone has been said to death, but I buy it and it’s weird to say too, because he hit 43 homers last season

Bret:  it’s really strange to say

Ben:  i don’t know if I’m more concerned, although it’s funny — didn’t realize he was only 17 months younger than Pujols until just now.

Craig:  plus there’s the difference between what they put into their bodies over the years…

Bret:  i just don’t know how long hamilton is going to hold up for
for that reason exactly
though, i do think he’ll still be pretty good for another year or two
just not JOSH HAMILTON

Craig:  I have a name who has been great so far, but who I don’t believe in at all – but let’s hear who Ben had in mind first

Bret:  well, now i want to hear it

Craig:  you’ll have to wait

Ben:  three names that pain me greatly — Jesus Montero, Will Middlebrooks and (gasp) Eric Hosmer

Craig:  worried, bailing (was before the season really) and believing (stubbornly)

Bret:  not super worried, wasn’t crazy about to start, not super worried
i’m with you that montero has been terrible, but i think he’s going to hit
the problem from a fantasy standpoint is that, he could lose his catcher eligibility by the time he figures things out

Ben:  so at what point do we walk away from montero and hosmer?
i know WMB never had the same ceiling and I never thought he’d be a superstar, but it’s shocking how horrible he looks this year.

Bret:  like justin smoak level walking away?

Ben:  if you’re not a LHP grooving FB down the middle, WMB can’t hit you.

Craig:  that’s fair – WMB has been worse than I figured, but I just never believed for a second

Ben:  and yes, justin smoak walking away because we all waited too long on smoak.

Bret:  i don’t think i’ll be there for another 2 years or so

Craig:  I’m willing to wait too long on Hosmer

Ben:  wow. see i think that’s way too long.

Craig:  not AS long on Montero but I do still believe a bit

Ben:  how many years can we tell people to draft these guys and receive zero production, then tell them to draft again?

Craig:  here’s my theory on Hosmer. He’s been terrible before (in the minors) and bounced back. He’s produced at the major league level

Ben:  I guess you can always put the asterisk up and say “potential for more,” but ….

Craig:  I’m going to believe that he can bounce back again

Bret:  that just depends on the price
if he’s a 15th rounder next year, i’m buying
even if he sucks this year

Craig:  if he’s a sub 700 OPS after next year, I’ll bail publicly and secretly believe for an extra season. And that’s the honest truth

Ben:  i think then maybe you try to buy quickly when you see signs of life, but we need to stop assuming a comeback.
i guess im just having brandon wood nightmares.

Craig:  I don’t think you’re out of line, but I don’t think his problems are the same as Wood (swing length)

Ben:  obv very different players all the way around, just using as an example.

Craig:  understood

Bret:  yea, i hated what happened to brandon wood, but it’s easier to envision success when you start with a better hit tool and hosmer and montero still both have the potential for strong hit tools

Craig:  Hosmer’s hit has been fine (not plus to plus-plus like we thought) this year. He’s just had zero power

Bret:  yea, he’s developing ryan sweeney syndrome

Ben:  important update: guys i just snarkily responded to keith law and got 8 favorites i’m cool.

Bret:  agreed. stamp of approval

Craig:  breaking my twitter silence to go look

Ben:  WMB just homered as well so our problems were misguided.

Craig:  WMB’s ears must be burning

Ben:  *our concerns. WMB does this to me.

Bret:  his plate discipline is just so awful

Ben:  it was truly much better last year. and this year it’s about as bad as you can imagine. have to believe the truth lies somewhere in between

Bret:  i agree on that
any other disappointments to bring up before we touch on some minor leaguers?

Craig:  but probably a 5-6% walk guy and a 20+% strikeout guy, right?

Bret:  or are you just disappointed we haven’t talked about minor leaguers yet?

Craig:  yes
well, he’s not a disappointment, but the guy I was thinking of earlier

Ben:  yep. just got to hope he cant go .260 with 25 homers and good D to make it worth it. i will stop with the WMB now.

Craig:  I wanna talk about Nelson Cruz

Ben:  and i wanna talk about dylan bundy.

Craig:  WE JUST TALKED ABOUT YOUR GUY BEN

Ben:  ugh fine.

Craig:  Cruz has kinda been better than anticipated for me. Maybe I was low on him before, but I thought last season was the beginning of the end for him
and he’s mostly holding steady if not increasing his production right now
that said, I think he’s the kinda guy who could go over the hill really damn fast

Bret:  i absolutely agree with that
if i own cruz in a dynasty league that i can spare him in right now, i’m selling him

Craig:  there weren’t questions on his batspeed so much as knowing that it had gotten noticeably slower

Bret:  i don’t think this ends well for him

Craig:  I’d be selling Nelson Cruz as quickly as possible, basically. I know Bret dropped him 8 spots in his rankings, despite a good start to the season
and I basically just thought it was worth talking about briefly

Bret:  yea, i think this will be a good season for him, but long-term, i’m worried
but, dylan bundy..

Ben:  Cruz is a guy who’s much better for Fantasy purposes than in real life for me

Craig:  well yeah the defense is a bleeping mess, but I’m not even optimistic that this season goes all that well for Cruz

Ben:  it’s more than just defense I think. but bottom line, if you think he can at least go .260-25-85 with 8-10 steals, the dude is worth owning

Craig:  definitely. I also think he’s worth trading to someone who believes because the downside is just so much bigger than the upside right now
But let’s talk Bundy

Ben:  so I think the arm injury is a big deal for a few reasons
a good amount of his value was tied up in being close to the majors and in being “safe” for a pitching prospect thanks to athleticism, delivery, etc. the TOOTBLAN crowd is mocking me for that statement, and maybe they are right. i don’t know how you don’t knock Bundy down several pegs for this.

Craig:  I think you mean TINSTAAPP

Ben:  hahahaha i do, but the TOOTBLAN crowd is probably mocking me now too.

Craig:  that mixup is brought to you by: bad bad wine

Bret:  haha, that’s great
everyone’s mocking you right now

Craig:  I’m mocking you 5th overall to Cleveland
BREAKING NEWS: Zack Greinke is throwing pitches in a major league game and I’m happy

Ben:  TOOTPLAN = thrown out of the podcast like a nincompoop

Craig:  hahahahaha

Bret:  haha

Craig:  coming back to Bundy…it IS a big deal, especially when it comes to immediate value
I also think that if you’re a Bundy owner, the ONLY thing to do is sit tight

Bret:  i agree with that

Craig:  the success rate of Tommy John (worst case scenario) is very good, though not perfect (John Lamb)
but it’s good enough that you have to see what he is when he’s healthy

Bret:  but are we in agreement that this doesn’t substantially lower his ceiling?

Craig:  I agree with that

Ben:  he’s still an easy top 50 prospect and probably a top 25. and yes, his ceiling remains as high as almost anyone’s. true first-SP-overall potential.

Craig:  I think the only sentiment I can muster for fantasy owners, pitching fans and Orioles fans alike is…this just sucks

Bret:  and are we all just assuming he needs TJ at this point?

Craig:  there’s not much to do about it, it just sucks
I’m not assuming he needs it just yet, but I am assuming he’ll need it within 24 months

Ben:  i am assuming, yes. when was the last time a “shut you down for 6 weeks and let’s see” program worked?

Craig:  I think Ervin Santana is the only guy I know pitching with a diagnosed partially torn elbow ligament
I know that’s not what Bundy was diagnosed with, but still

Ben:  casey kelly, banuelos, weiland (if i’m not misremember), kyle gibson, etc

Craig:  Billingsley, Lackey

Bret:  yea, it’s definitely not a good sign, but it’s still not 100%, and i think he’s certainly a top-25 prospect
he just moves out on the curve more

Ben:  so bundy or miller/fernandez now?

Bret:  he essentially slides in just ahead of guys in A-ball who have really high ceilings

Craig:  yeah, it’s kinda like Brett Anderson isn’t it? We all thought he’d be OK when he came back and it represented a buy low window
of course Anderson is a whole other story now
dangit Ben, why with the hard choices

Ben:  i think i go miller – bundy – fernandez.

Bret:  i take either of those two over bundy

Craig:  I think I’m with Ben, again

Bret:  i really like what i’ve seen out of fernandez so far

Craig:  No argument there from me. I really like Bundy though

Bret:  i agree with that as well

Ben:  yeah. bundy/fernandez a coin flip for me. miller a bit ahead of both.

Bret:  i had bundy and miller pretty close in the pre-season, so i’m definitely higher on miller now

Ben:  samezies.

Bret:  well, we’ve been at this for quite a while now

Craig:  The only other interesting name I’d throw out there to talk about is Cingrani, but I don’t have anything to add since I spent 1000 words on him already

Ben:  i like.
an obvious sadface name i’ll throw out is casey kelly, who I thought would be a sneaky-good back-end fantasy SP this year. womp.

Craig:  At all worried about the reliance (I’d say over-reliance) on the fastball for Cingrani?

Bret:  i have a really big sadface over Casey Kelly
and the cingrani thing is well documented at this point

Craig:  Fair enough

Ben:  yeah i’m cingrani’d out too

Bret:  when cueto comes back and he’s back in the minors, there will at least be a little reprieve

Craig:  not so sure Leake doesn’t get the boot from the rotation

Bret:  we’ll find out soon enough, but i think it’s time to close up shop tonight
we didn’t even get to the minor league topics either
i guess we’ll have to reconvene specifically to cover that

Craig:  if you say so. I’ve got the Dodgers/Nats game on, so I can go for a while yet

Ben:  my only regret is that I didn’t get to make a Pat Benatar joke

Bret:  you’re not going to be happy though, craig

Craig:  I wish we got Ben to admit his shame over what he was drinking

Bret:  you know this

Craig:  let’s face it, I’m never happy.

Ben:  i’m not ashamed. i’m poor and full so i’m drinking a $16 bottle yellow tail. if you haven’t been there before, you haven’t lived. or at least not past college. it’s the daniel nava of wines.

Bret:  hahaha
and that is the perfect note to go out on

Craig:  This can be off-air but…that assumes we drink wine. But also, 16 bucks? that’s a healthy price for wine. I assume you could do better than Yellow Tail for that price.

Bret:  $16 could buy you a LOT of malt liquor

Ben:  it’s a big bottle

Craig:  ahhhh

Ben:  750 ml and i live in boston

Bret:  that’s a lot of milliliters

Craig:  is Boston expensive for alcohol? I honestly have no idea

Ben:  everything is expensive here. not as much so as NY but still.

Bret:  NY is crazy for liquor prices, but jersey is cheap and PA is ludicrous
alright kids, time to say goodnight

Ben:  sounds good, this was fun as always

Bret:  absolutely

Craig:  definitely

Bret:  thanks guys for doing this

Craig:  let’s do a prospects focused one soon to follow up

Bret:  absolutely, it’s a date

Follow Bret on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Follow Craig on Twitter at @cdgoldstein.
Follow Ben on Twitter at @bcarsley22.

On one hand, it’s so simple. The whole off-season we build value-based mausoleums around all of these players, as time stands still long enough for us to construct them. But the only problem with that is that these players are not dead–they are, in fact, very alive. As as soon as you think you’ve built the perfect chamber, with statistics and narratives covering the walls, things begin to change. Quickly. And as dynasty league owners, it’s even more important to separate the signal from the noise when it comes to early season performance. If we wait too long to notice real changes, or if we refuse to accept the ones which are in front of us, it can derail a team off its course for years. So it’s in our best interest not to have static valuations, and part of that comes from placing a higher value on current season production. The future is great, but current production is king. So when Jose Reyes is out for two months, not only does his redraft league value go down, but his dynasty value does as well. Just not as much, since it’s unlikely to be something that will affect him long-term.

The risers on this list are sure to catch your attention, and in fact, there are 20 players who have jumped more than 100 spots in the rankings (including those who weren’t ranked in the top-500 last time around. Many are names which will not surprise you, like Carlos Gomez, Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson–but the important thing to note is that they are based on skill-set improvements which can be sustainable. On the other hand, you’ll find 17 players who dropped 100 spots or more, and those are even easier to spot. The vast majority of these are either older pitchers who have undergone surgery or players (closers-slash-otherwise) who have lost their roles. You won’t find healthy players drop very far based solely on performance, except in extreme circumstances. That tends to be more of a slow burn.

The Top 500 Dynasty League rankings are intended to be a snapshot of current value, as all rankings are. The list I’m posting today will look different than the one I’d post next Wednesday or the Wednesday after that. And after this ranking, I will put out another at the half-way point of the season, and the final 2013 list will come out in mid-August. Additionally, there will be a brand new Podcast For Your Eyes coming out tomorrow where Ben, Craig and I talk about these rankings in greater detail.

Finally, with the new rankings comes a reminder. If you’re enjoying the rankings, and all of the other work here at The Dynasty Guru, I hope that you will make a donation to show your support for the site. As a non-subscription site, this is how you can help make sure we’re still around at this time next year, producing the best dynasty league content we can. You can do that through this link, or by clicking the “Donate” button on the top-right corner of the homepage. All donations are truly appreciated.

And now what you came here for, the updated Top 500 list — as of May 15, 2013:
 

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.

It’s a trap that many of us – even the most seasoned pundits – fall into on occasion, and you read about them all the time. Byron Buxton is the next Andrew McCutchen. Jose Iglesias is the new Rey Ordonez. Any catcher who can’t really catch but can hit is Mike Napoli. Anyone with plus-plus control is Greg Maddux.

I think comparisons deserve a bit more leniency when it comes to Fantasy prospect talk, since what we’re really talking about is just an end stat line. So maybe Miguel Sano is nothing like Giancarlo Stanton, but if the numbers look the same at season’s end, the comp is a good one. Robbie Erlin isn’t going to be as good as Mark Buehrle, but if his stats play up in Petco and the numbers match up, you’re justified in invoking the name.

But there is one link between player and prospect I made several years ago that I had hoped would stay hidden in dark corners of the Internet forever. One so glaringly foolish that I am cringing a bit as I write this now. Yet the only way to improve oneself is through self-reflection and honesty, and so I shall share my secret with the TDG family now.

I compared Jesus Montero to Frank Thomas.

And that comparison wasn’t “Jesus Montero won’t be as good as Frank Thomas.” No, I pushed all my chips in the middle on this one, and it looks like I’m walking away empty-handed.

Through north of 700 plate appearances in the major leagues, Montero has been worth 0.0 fWAR. His wRC+ is 94. His line sits at .250/.304/.420. And he’s a liability defensively behind the plate. Here’s a handy chart showing his wOBA compared to league average.

Source: FanGraphs — Jesus Montero

Montero is still just 23 and so has time to turn this around, but there’s no way around it: to this point in his career, he’s been a giant bust.

Through 92 PA this season Montero is suffering through a BABIP of .215, and there’s almost no way it stays that low. Yet even if that metrics returns to 2012 levels – a reasonable .292 – it makes Montero a below average hitter devoid of positional value playing half his games in a poor hitter’s ballpark surrounded by a crappy offense. He swings and misses at more pitches than the average hitter. He makes contact less frequently than the average hitter. He swings more often than the average hitter. These are not good things.

We should also address something that’s difficult to quantify, but I think is worth mentioning: the Mariners suck at developing high-profile offensive prospects. Dustin Ackley is worse now than he was in college and Justin Smoak has flamed out spectacularly. Their biggest success stories are Kyle Seager and Michael Saunders: nice players, but Role 5 guys who can’t carry a team offensively. Can I say with certainty that the M’s are what screwed up Montero? No. But I can observe that he’s certainly not alone in his inability to progress in Seattle’s organization.

I drafted Montero as my primary catcher in a few leagues this season, as I truly believed he’s post an above-average line for a backstop, if nothing else. I’m giving him about two more weeks to figure it out, or I’ll be slumming by on the A.J. Ellis-es of the world until a more lucrative option appears.

Montero is not out of chances in Seattle yet. I’d bet on the M’s dumping Smoak before they dump Jesus, moving the latter to DH while Kendry Morales mans first and Mike Zunino comes up to catch. But even a team like Seattle won’t give Montero endless opportunity to prove he can hit, and we might only be a few weeks away from a return trip to Triple-A.

If you love prospects, you have to let them go. Montero is not the same man he was two years ago, and until we see some evidence that he can drive balls selectively the way he used to, we can’t bank on him as a future Fantasy stud.

Manny Machado was, in some ways, a victim of his own success in fantasy circles. It’s no secret that he was consistently challenged by the Orioles with his assignments, tackling Low-A at age 18 and Double-A at age 19. So, simply by holding his own at the levels he was assigned to was a strong statement about his talent — and those gaudy minor league numbers, like the ones many of the “household name” prospects put up, never came. But that didn’t deter the Orioles from seeing what he was capable of, as he was promoted to the major leagues just one month after his 20th birthday, and all he did was post a 98 OPS+ in the middle of a playoff race. Not to mention that he was playing great defense at a position he only played two games at during his entire minor league career.

Back in October, I profiled Machado over at Fake Teams, and wasn’t shy about how excited I was about him, both for the 2013 season and beyond. Here’s what I said about him, after comparing his 2012 season with Mike Trout’s 2011 campaign: “…while I don’t expect Machado to put up Trout-like numbers next year, I do expect him to follow a similar pattern. That means I expect him to have legitimate success, not just success for a 20-year old.” I also ranked Machado as a top-40 fantasy player for dynasty leagues this off-season, and a top-5 third baseman — saying this: “Yes, this is aggressive, but Machado is going to be a star and soon. Possibly even as soon as 2013.”

This season, Machado is making a loud statement that he should be considered along with Harper and Trout to be the new ambassadors of the game for the rest of this decade and beyond. Through 38 games, Machado is hitting .331/.370/.521 with five homers and four steals. He’s also third in the major leagues in both doubles and wins above replacement (fWAR). And all of his underlying stats are backing this up. His walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, his swing rate is down, his contact rate is up, his whiff rate is down and his line drive rate is up. And none of these are insignificant changes either.

The real question of whether he can join this upper echelon of talent for fantasy purposes is where he falls on the defensive spectrum. Machado came up through the Orioles system as a shortstop, and has played third base exclusively at the major league level because that’s where the team’s need has been. But with J.J. Hardy’s contract expiring after the 2013 season, Machado could potentially be looking at a return to his natural position, which would make his dynasty league value shoot through the roof. This potential .300+ average, 25+ homers and 10-15 steals would clearly play at any position, but to get that at shortstop would be even better consider the dearth of fantasy stars at the position recently.

Later this week, I’m going to be releasing an updated Top 500 Dynasty League Overall Rankings (teaser alert!) — and I will have moved Machado up comfortably. Not up to the Trout/Harper level, but let’s be honest, that’s not warranted after six weeks — and even if he does this for six months, he’s going to need that shortstop eligibility to get near that level. But putting that aside for a second, it’s well worth putting Machado up on that age-to-performance pedestal, though it feels like we’ve done it so often recently. After all, he’s on pace to have one of the greatest age-20 seasons of all time (which would surely would be talked about much more if we hadn’t seen the greatest age-20 season of all time last year, and aren’t seeing another one just 45 minutes south of Baltimore).

It’s only natural for Manny Machado to sit in the shadows of two of the most impressive prospect-to-superstar conversions that we’ve seen in our lifetime. But he has the talent to force his way into that conversation before too long, and just being in that conversation is an incredible achievement, considering the rarities that Harper and Trout are. If you haven’t gotten fully on board the Manny Machado Express, there’s still room, but seats are filling up quickly..

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.

Relevant Details:

• 10 Team AL-Only League
• 13 keepers
• 3 year limits on players with 1 player you can keep indefinitely (designated as “franchise player”)
• Rosters are as follows:
• Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, DH
• Pitchers: P (10, no designation)
• No bench
• 30-man minor league system
• 10 FA moves allowed (these are pure FA moves and do not get used when reserving a DL’d player or a player sent to minors)
• 10 MiLB moves allowed (can be made at any time, cannot be traded)
• Categories: BA, HR, R, RBI, SB, DT (doubles + triples), IP, ERA, W, S, Ratio (some bizarre thing that is BB+H-K/IP, I don’t get it either)

Here is my roster at the time of the deal (I was in last place):

The trade:

I send

James Shields
Junichi Tazawa (I had just picked him up and he had to yet be added to my roster)

for

Adalberto Mondesi
Taylor Guerrieri
JO Berrios
Jairo Beras
Joe Blanton
Koji Uehara

Rationale:

Despite some very respectable players and a bunch of solid ones, my team had gotten off to a very slow start. My superstars weren’t carrying enough of the load (looking at you Pujols) and aside from Nelson Cruz and Austin Jackson, every other hitter was struggling in one way or another. As I inherited this team in the offseason, I decided to sell on this season and remake the team with guys that I selected. That wasn’t the only issue though…It wasn’t simple to get to 13 keeper worthy guys on this team, and I wasn’t at all confident I could compete in 2014, much less this year.

James Shields is obviously an insanely valuable piece of property in a league like this, but he was harming me in a few ways at this point. 1) He’s been pitching incredibly well, and when you’re not winning in a league like this, losing is vitally important, as having first selection in the offseason draft is a major boon. 2) This isn’t harming me exactly, but he is a FA at the end of 2014. That means if I didn’t compete next season, I’d have to accept reduced value for him because of the uncertainty that he’d be staying in the AL and thus be able to be kept by the owner trading for him. So I was fighting a battle with time, in the event that I wasn’t competitive next year. Could I be competitive by next season? Quite possibly, but I didn’t love my chances and if I need to, I now have the farm system to overpay if necessary.

I think my big failing here is that I did not receive a premium prospect for Shields a la a Myers or a Russell or a Gausman. I had the option to trade Shields for Gausman and little else. Instead I chose a package of prospects that included some serious quality as well. I believe Guerrieri and Mondesi could be top 30 prospects as soon as next season. I think Berrios could be a top 70 guy and Beras is a flier with massive power and solid speed. Minor league value can be hard to come by in this league, what with the 30-man MiLB roster, but I feel I did well to get talents that I view as relatively safe with some premium upside.

I followed that deal up with this trade:

I send

Erick Aybar
Tyler Flowers
Luis Mendoza

for

Derek Norris
Brandon Maurer
Yunel Escobar
Luigi Rodriguez

This deal was essentially Aybar for Norris, Maurer, and Rodriguez with the other pieces added to make it work. Losing a very solid SS in a league like this is tough, but I got a catcher back and given that it’s AL Only and a two-catcher league, I’m very happy with that. On top of that I got Maurer who has struggled some in the early going, but also shown flashes of being a solid pitcher. I said I was a fan of him in the offseason, and I’m walking the walk here, taking a risk in acquiring him. My biggest concern is his injury risk, but I’m willing to live with that to move one keeper and add two. In fact, Maurer’s growing pains are just fine with me, given my desire to be at the bottom of the standings at this point, as long as he’s good enough to remain in the rotation next year.

Ok, so that was a lot of stuff going on. In the end, here’s what my farm system looks like as I plan for 2015 contention (with the possibility of 2014 if I decide to shuffle some talent):

2 Delino Deshields Hou
S Brad Miller Sea
S Adalberto Mondesi KC NOD
S Esteilon Peguero Sea
S Jon Schoop Bal
S Luis Sardinas Tex NOD
S Tony Wolters Cle
S Nick Williams Tex
O Jairo Beras Tex NOD
O Dante Bichette Jr. NYY
O Michael Choice Oak
O Brett Eibner KC
O Gabriel Guerrero Sea
O Courtney Hawkins CHW
O Jared Mitchell CHW
O Luigi Rodriguez Cle NOD
O Bubba Starling KC
O Levon Washington Cle
P Miguel Almonte KC
P JO Berrios Min NOD
P Jose Campos NYY
P Dillon Howard Cle
P Kyle Gibson Min
P Luis Gohara Sea
P Taylor Guerrieri TB NOD
P Roberto Osuna Tor
P Bruce Rondon Det
P Victor Sanchez Sea
P Blake Snell TB NOD
P Alberto Tirado Tor

So, since you often ask our opinion, I’m turning the tables and asking yours. How’d I do? Did I sell too soon? Did I sell too cheap?

Take Coco Crisp, for example. I had Crisp ranked at #58 among dynasty league outfielders this off-season, and he was one of the most valuable players for fantasy in April. When I update my rankings (stay tuned for an announcement on this–and yes, I’m aware that I just teased a teaser), he might move up a few spots overall, but nothing drastic. In this case, it’s because Crisp wasn’t ranked higher due to his proclivity for injuries, and he’s on the DL again right now. As far as his performance, we know that he’s capable of performing like a stud in spurts–it’s already built into his value.

It’s when new information comes out that has to factor into a player’s valuation that the ranking moves in a significant fashion. And here are a couple of guys giving new reasons for their rankings to start changing.

Carlos Gomez

I was as down as anyone on Gomez this off-season, and my reasoning was pretty simple–I thought the power was a fluke and that he would revert to being close to 2011 Carlos Gomez again. Meaning, I thought he’d be a sub-.250 hitter with speed and a little pop, along with the potential to play himself right out of a job. The latter part of that was essentially eradicated when the Brewers signed Gomez to a three-year extension in March. To be honest, if that had happened prior to my rankings, I’d have moved him up based on that alone. On top of that, fellow BP writer Mike Gianella was instrumental in pointing out some things about the sheer value that Gomez was producing that I was not fully considering. My thought process progressed to the point where I actually bought Carlos Gomez is my biggest home league for $20 the weekend prior to Opening Day. And boy am I glad I did.

Gomez has moved every needle in the right direction so far this season. My two biggest concerns about him were that his strikeout rate and power would not hold the levels he saw in 2012. Instead, he’s lowered his strikeout rate further (now below 20% for the first time in his career) and has put up a .273 ISO in his first 30 games. To put that into perspective, Miguel Cabrera had a .277 ISO in his Triple Crown winning 2012 season (and is at .243 for his career). And not only is he doing this, but he’s hitting .364 and has 7 steals. The batting average is crazy and unsustainable, but could he hit .270 the rest of the way? Sure he can, which could make him a legitimate top-30 fantasy player. I may have been dead wrong about Gomez back in January, but I am not going to be shy about changing my preconceived notions to match his development.

Starling Marte

I will admit, I’m taking a little extra enjoyment out of Marte’s strong performance this year because he was one of the players I was consistently told I was overrating ever since my 2012 pre-season prospect rankings (where I had him 29th overall). This continued when I had him as a top-30 dynasty league outfielder coming into this season. While Marte the baseball player may have his flaws, the biggest of which is his lack of patience at the plate, he makes for a great fantasy outfielder, as he’s showing this season.

So with that said, what should we expect the “real” Marte to be going forward? He’s not going to hit 25+ homers this year, but he can clear 15 for the full season (including the five he’s already hit). He’s not going to steal 50+ bases, but unless his rate of success starts to look more like it did in the minors, he should be able to steal 20-25 more. The batting average is the biggest question, and makes the biggest difference as to whether he’s a top-30 OF or a top-15 one. His 2012 strikeout rate of over 27% was never truly indicative of his skill, but his 21% rate this year is. And he can maintain a high BABIP (think .330, not .400) because of his ability to barrel the ball pretty consistently and his batted ball profile.

Quick Hits

• One of my favorite deep sleepers heading into the season, Patrick Corbin has been nothing short of excellent in his first six starts of 2013. The funny thing is xFIP says he’s been essentially the same guy as last year, he’s just giving up homers at nearly 1/3 of the clip. He won’t have a 1.80 ERA all year, but he could essentially replicate Wade Miley’s 2012 season.
• Christian Yelich continues to rake in Double-A, hitting .400 with three homers in his last 10 games. And the way the Marlins are apparently unafraid of service time considerations when promoting their prospects, I think we may see Yelich sooner rather than later.
• On the other hand, it may be a while before we see everyone’s favorite minor league speedster, Billy Hamilton. Despite the potential opportunities he’s had in front of him with the injuries to Ryan Ludwick and Chris Heisey, Hamilton’s .190/.254/.267 line doesn’t have the Reds clamoring for his services. Add to that the fact that he’s still learning a new position, and it makes you wonder if we’ll see him at all before September.

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.

We then see a second body collector enter screen with an elderly man slung over his back, protesting, “I feel fine” and “I’m not dead yet!”

“I’m getting better,” the man says, as the two collectors argue over whether or not to add him to the cart.

The prospects below represent that old man, and this was a long way to go for an introduction.

Anthony Ranaudo (SP, BOS)

As a Red Sox fan and prospect enthusiast, few people on this planet were quite as excited as I was when the Sox grabbed Ranaudo with the 39th pick in the 2010 draft. Until quite recently, that enthusiasm had not been rewarded, as Ranaudo has battled injury and ineffectiveness for much of the past two seasons. I must admit that I’d all but written Ranaudo off before the season began – I had him as the Sox’ No. 18 prospect and he was nowhere near my Top 150 list. But just 33 innings into his 2013 campaign, it appears as though reason for newfound optimism exists.
Ranaudo has a 1.64 ERA and 36 strikeouts through those 33 innings, to go along with just seven walks, three homers and 20 hits in what’s been a largely dominant start to the season. Since I’d like to avoid a thrashing by the small sample size crew, I’d point out that the scouting reports on Ranaudo are excellent so far this year as well. His fastball velocity is back in the 94-97 mph range and we’ve heard reports of a crisper curveball than he showed at any point last year. Ranaudo is finally healthy, and we’re seeing glimpses of the man who dominated the SEC for much of 2009.

What’s compelling about this from a Fantasy standpoint is that Ranaudo needs no long climb back up the ladder to prospect relevancy. He’s already in Double-A, meaning that if Ranaudo keeps this up, there’s a decent chance we’ll see him in the majors this year. You can’t forecast him as an ace any longer, to be sure, but if he rebounds to No. 3 starter territory, it’d be pretty remarkable. If your dynasty league keeps 150 MiLBers and he’s available, consider pulling the trigger.

Zack Cox (3B, MIA)

Another collegiate star from the 2010 draft, Cox’s story is similar to Ranaudo’s in its arc but almost more frustrating because of his projection when drafted. We all knew Ranaudo was a risk when he was taken, as his shoddy 2010 performance and injury battles added some red flags to his profile. Cox, though, was seen as among the draft’s safest players. No one thought he’d be a star, but everyone thought he’d hit, and the only real question surrounding his projection seemed to be whether it would come at second or third base.

Fast forward two-and-a-half years, and it’s pretty clear we were getting ahead of ourselves worrying about Cox’ defensive home. After a very good 2011 season in which Cox destroyed Triple-A and posted a wRC+ of 112 in Double-A, he simply stopped hitting. He hit .254/.294/.421 in Triple-A for the Cards last season, then hit just .253/.321/.368 after a trade to the Marlins and demotion to Double-A. Cast off not only most Top 150 but most Marlins Top 10 lists this offseason as well, Cox is making a modest comeback so far in 2013, hitting .328/.438/.426 in 73 PA, albeit with little pop.

Cox is another example of a guy who doesn’t face a long road to recovery if it clicks. I’m not sure if our readers are aware, but the Marlins are not very good this season, and currently employ Placido Polanco at third base on purpose in the year 2013. Cox doesn’t have to do much other than threaten to be replacement level to see time at some point, and while you shouldn’t expect much power it’s possible Cox can still hit enough to deserve rostering in deep mixed or NL Only leagues.

Sonny Gray (SP, OAK )

If we’re being honest, including Gray here is sort of a stretch in my opinion, as I’m still not convinced he’s going to be an effective major league starter in the long run. But with Jarrod Parker looking like a D.L. candidate, opportunity is about to come knocking at Gray’s door, and the right-hander has done enough so far this season to warrant a promotion to the major leagues.

Gray’s 2012 campaign can largely be summed up as follows: meh. He threw 148 innings in Double-A, posting a 4.14 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 5.90 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9. It’s not that those numbers are horrible, but they’re not terribly inspiring either, and they become even less so when you consider that Gray was viewed as a fast-mover out of college in 2011. I’ve been championing the undersized Gray as a reliever candidate since the draft, but the A’s have been content to leave him in the rotation, where his results have been decent enough to prevent a move to the bullpen, but uninspiring enough to knock him off most Top 100 lists.

Gray looks like he’s taken a modest step forward this season, as he’s upped his K/9 ratio to 7.26 while moving up to Triple-A and keeping his BB/9 largely consistent. He’s allowed just nine earned runs in 31 innings, and his FIP sits at 2.75. As I mentioned above, I think Gray is a potentially dominant late-inning arm with his fastball and curveball combo, but I’m less optimistic about his ability to start. If you want to use him in favorable matchups at home once he’s in the majors, though, it’s a reasonable gamble to take.

However, sometimes the best deals you can make are ones where the market is dictating a run in the opposite direction. And they are often the best deals because the prices tend to be pretty low. You could be dealing with an owner who is rebuilding but had to grab a few veterans to fill out his active roster, and is now seeing that he could potentially get a return for one of these players. Or you could be dealing with a contending team who just doesn’t need this player on his/her active roster. Either way, here are five hitters who could potentially be had for a prospect you might not miss all that much in your dynasty league:

Mark Reynolds

The first name on this list is a familiar one, but not one who was expected to be a top-20 overall fantasy player through five weeks of the season (which he has been). The most incredible thing about his season so far, isn’t the 10 homers or the 26 RBI, it’s the 23.1% strikeout rate. To put that in perspective, his previous career low for strikeout rate was last year’s 29.6%. To put it in further perspective, Reynolds is hitting .300 right now and his BABIP is below his career rate. Of course, he’s not quite as old as some of the other names on this list, or as far removed from real fantasy impact, but I just really wanted an excuse to talk about what he’s doing. I’ve been trying to trade for him in a few different leagues to no avail, but I really do think this party can continue all year long (to an extent). Remember all those years we talked ourselves into how valuable Reynolds could be if he could just hit .260 again? This may be that year.

Trade status: Worthy of a top-50 prospect

Nate McLouth

With a .313 average and 9 steals through his first 27 games, McLouth is not turning back the clock, he’s forging a new one. After all, it’s not every day that a 31-year old outfielder is nearly halfway to his career high in stolen bases by Cinco de Mayo. Add to that sterling package, his 3 HR and incredible 16-10 K/BB rate and you’ve got one heck of a story emanating from a city which had it’s share of stories in 2012. Oh, and did I mention that he has a .411 OBP and 25 runs scored in 27 games? On top of all this, his underlying stats suggest that it’s completely legit. McLouth has always had low swinging strike rates, but so far this year, he has a 2.9% rate, which is just ridiculous. He’s also only swinging at 17.1% of pitches outside the strike zone, which is equally ridiculous.

Trade status: Worthy of a top-75 prospect

Vernon Wells

Maybe it’s a coincidence that Wells’ two worst seasons in terms of BABIP (2011 and 2012) were also his two worst seasons in terms of walk rate. Now, he’s never been a prodigious walker, but his 8.5% rate so far in 2013 would be his highest since 2004. And despite the twists and turns his career has taken over the past two seasons, the one thing Wells never lost was his ability to hit for power, as he hit 36 HR in 208 games–all while hitting in one of the league’s most notorious homer-killing parks in baseball. There will be a little bit of a playing time crunch when Curtis Granderson returns, but as one of the few power bats in their lineup, the Yankees will be hard pressed to sit him too often. And that’s all assuming that Travis Hafner stays healthy. And speaking of Hafner…

Trade status: Worthy of a prospect outside the top 100

Travis Hafner

He makes this list too, due to the bounce back season he’s enjoying so far. Through Sunday’s games, Hafner’s OPS had just barely dropped below the gold standard to .999–with 6 HR and a .291 batting average. And if you’re in an OBP league, he’s been even better, as he’s getting on base more than 41% of the time. The issue with Hafner had always been (and continues to be) his health, but in 2012, he was a disappointment even when he was on the field. However, Hafner would certainly not be the first in a recent line of veteran left-handed hitters who has found playing in Yankee Stadium (with it’s short porch in right) to be something along the lines of the Fountain of Youth. There’s always the concern that he’ll break, but until he does, Hafner could be a very helpful player–especially in points leagues.

Trade status: Worthy of a prospect outside the top 100

John Buck

It’s tough to be the unlikeliest member of this group, but I think we can all agree that Buck is just that. And while his story is great, if you’re in a mixed league that only uses one catcher, you can feel free to ignore the rest of this blurb. But if you play in a two-catcher format or an NL-only, Buck is someone who could likely be had for a reasonable price. He’s not going to hit 50 HR this year, but with Travis d’Arnaud still recovering from injury (and won’t be up in the majors for at least another two months), his playing time isn’t going anywhere. He could actually hit 25+ bombs before all is said and done this year.

Trade status: Worthy of a top-150 prospect

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I talk a lot about process versus product. Not always in my articles, but I try to make a point to bring it up online. I think Bret’s process in coming to the conclusion that Cingrani’s value may never be higher than it was, was very sound. There were a lot of good reasons behind that thought process. It just so happened that Cingrani defied the odds. It’s entirely possible that he will continue to defy the odds and prove all his believers right. All that said, I’m going to sit right here and tell you how I became the prince of a town called Bel Air reiterate that I believe Tony Cingrani ends up as a reliever. Now, there are 18 innings, 28 strikeouts, four walks and three earned runs telling me I’m an idiot. But it’s only 18 innings guys. Let’s not overreact. I’m as tired of typing small sample size as I am of reading it, and thankfully as we plow on into May and June we will start to hear less and less of it, but being tired of it doesn’t invalidate what it means. 18 innings over three games isn’t nothing, but Chris Capuano had a three game stretch last year where he struck out 24 in 25.1 innings while walking four and allowing five earned runs. Not directly comparable, but the point is made.

My biggest reason for doubting a continued run of success for Tony Cingrani is his pitch selection. According to the indispensable Brooks Baseball, Cingrani throws his fastball (a four-seamer) 79% of the time in 2013. For comparison’s sake, Justin Verlander throws his fastball 57% of the time. Justin Masterson throws his sinker and fastball a combined 78% (career). Greg Maddux, ever famous for his two-seam fastball, threw it 64% of the time (career). Think about that. Cingrani is reaching back and throwing a four-seam fastball more than Verlander throws his, more than Maddux threw his two-seamer and more than Masterson (a prominent sinkerballer) throws his top two pitches combined. He’s saying “here’s my fastball, hit it if you can”. And quite simply, they can’t. I got my head out of a spreadsheet, left my mother’s basement and watched the game (on tv) on Sunday, and I can’t quite figure what I saw. Cingrani was putting up fastballs in the 92-94 MPH range (Brooks has his fastball at 92.52) and it seemed like every single hitter was late on the pitch. It was truly bizarre. Now, part of that can be explained by the fact that Cingrani has a deceptive delivery and hides the ball well, so it gets on hitters a little sooner than they’d expect. But you’d also expect that the second and third times through the order, they might adjust. It’s also important to note that Cingrani was able to put the ball just about anywhere he pleased. He was painting the black with frequency, and that type of control will certainly allow a fastball to play up.

My other reason for doubting a continued run of success for Cingrani is that not enough has changed since the offseason when we last calibrated our perception of him. It’s April 30. He has had an absolutely stunning run, and I’m not trying to take anything away from him, nor do I wish this run to end. That said, if you’re changing your perception of a player and their ceiling based on 18 innings and 300 some odd pitches, there are bigger problems afoot. When scouts look at prospects, what they do is compare them to all the other guys they’ve seen and how those players have turned out. This may be a conscious effort and it may not. Most do it internally. It’s what “frame of reference” is all about. That’s why people such as Keith Law, who has been steadfast in his appraisal of Cingrani, might appear stubborn. That’s why Bret, is willing to appear foolish in the midst of a run of dominance. That’s why I am writing this whole dang column. Because we’ve never quite seen a pitcher like Cingrani before. Sure, we’ve seen big fastballs and deceptive fastballs, and big, deceptive fastballs. But we haven’t seen someone throwing a big, deceptive fastball damn near 80% of the time, much less be a starter, much less be a successful starter. Because we haven’t seen someone do it before, it’s hard to accept as a reasonable thing to predict. Players who break the mold suffer that burden; we need them to prove it to us every step of the way. And sometimes they do! That’s what’s fun and exciting about baseball. What we have seen before is a player take the league by storm his first time through, getting by on stuff and deception, but fall short his second or third time through the league, as professional hitters do what they do: adjust. So while no one is saying it’s impossible for Tony Cingrani to dominate the league using basically one pitch, we are I am saying it’s improbable.

According to FanGraphs the only two starters who throw their fastball more than Cingrani are Ross Detwiler and Bartolo Colon, who are striking out 4.6 and 5.4 per nine innings respectively. Cingrani sits at 14 per nine. One of these things is not like the other. So if myself and others appear slow to adjust our evaluation or perception of Cingrani or the next great hype, know that there’s some logic behind it. It’s not that we’re not excited or that we have some personal vendetta or that we’re stupid (though certainly any or all can be possible), it’s just that changing an evaluation should require lots and lots of information, and we’re just in the process of gathering that info. With every start, more of me believes that Tony Cingrani can be a starting pitcher in this league. I do not think he’ll be an ace, and if pressed would still say that closer is the best role for him. I’m going to say that because the process that resulted in that evaluation was sound. If he becomes more than that, it’s a) great and b) variance. Call me stubborn, call me pig-headed, argumentative or just plain wrong. It’s nothing I haven’t heard before. Call me any and all of those things, but know there’s a reason that I’m willing to call a guy who has a 14 K/9 as a starter a future reliever.

You can follow me on Twitter at @cdgoldstein
You can read my other work at Fake Teams and MLB Draft Insider