With Arismendy Alcantara’s call up and likely demotion right in front of us, I thought it would be interesting to focus on the state of the second-sackers in MLB right now. It’s probably worse than you’re ready for. The 2014 league average second baseman is turning in a .251/.311/.365 slash line right now, which is somehow worse than 2013’s .257/.316/.376 line.
Here we are: the last segment of the 20-team dynasty league MiLB draft. Pat yourself on the back! You made it! Click here for last week’s which will get you to the week before and so on and so forth. Let’s bang this thing out, shall we?
Reminder that the picks say 11-20 but this is the latter half of the third round of the draft:
11. Boston - Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (SP PHI)
I’ll admit to not hating this pick at the time. It was a decent gamble for an arm that was supposedly close to big league ready. That said, the drastic reduction of the value of his contract should have given us some pause for concern. He didn’t look good in Spring Training, and while the changeup was as advertised, it didn’t seem like the rests of the arsenal was viable for the major leagues. Not a bad pick at the time, but ultimately still a bit of a bust.
Last week I covered the second half of the second round of a 20-team dynasty league’s minor league draft. To check that out, click here, and within that link is a link to a previous iteration of this exercise that full explains the league settings/structure. From there it’s just links within links until it becomes a fractal.
The picks are numbered 1-10 but keep in mind these are third round selections
1. Milwaukee - Cesar Puello (OF NYM)
Puello is fine. There’s just not a ton to get excited about. I think he caps out around a 2nd division outfielder, which is normally the type of guy I love (see: Arcia, Oswaldo) because they tend to be undervalued, but I guess I see him more towards the bottom of that tier than the top. I’m probably underrating Puello here. His tools are nice, but his future home park isn’t great. He should be a big leaguer in the not too distant future.
2. Colorado - Alex Reyes (SP STL)
I’m a bit surprised he lasted this long, though he hadn’t reached full season ball yet, so distance to the majors was likely a factor. The ceiling here is huge – a potential number two starter in both fantasy and real life – but the path is fraught with risk. Still, tremendous value at this point, and absolutely someone I considered with my second round pick as well.
3. San Diego - Lewis Thorpe(SP MIN)
Thorpe got blown up by some of my colleagues at BP, and there’s good reason based on the tools. I don’t think he’s a great fantasy add though, falling under the same theory that I’ve discussed with J2 prospects. He’s so far out and so raw, that even large steps forward would only get him to full season baseball by year’s end. There’s a good chance he doesn’t touch short-season baseball this year. We’re looking at a five year timetable and that’s just too much to waste a roster spot on.
4. Atlanta - Luiz Gohara (SP SEA)
Gohara should move faster than a guy like Thorpe but his ceiling isn’t nearly as high and he’s got plenty of risk given his age. It’s a fine get, but the body is ugly and could age poorly, and combined with limited upside, I’m not in love with the value. I don’t hate it, but it’s not ideal.
5. Oakland - Franklin Barreto (OF/SS TOR)
I don’t think he’s a shortstop long term, which harms the profile because the bat might not play well elsewhere, but the kid can straight up hit. The power might be limited due to Barreto’s frame, but again, this late in a draft like this getting a hitter as pure as he is can hardly be knocked.
6. Arizona - Jace Peterson (SS SD)
He’s already reached the majors, a bit of a surprise given the relative nascence of his game. He was a football player in college and always old for his level, which might explain why the Padres were comfortable jumping him straight to the majors. He’s fast but can’t hit for power and the hit tool is a big question mark. I’m fine with taking that chance this late in the draft though, as usable steals are a nice resource.
7. Baltimore - Devon Travis (2B DET)
I don’t like Travis at all and think too much hype was given this offseason. Once again this owner’s penchant for close to the big league prospects with limited overall profiles shines through. I don’t have much to say here because I don’t think there’s much to talk about. He’s more utility man than second division starter to me.
8. Chicago AL - Adalberto Mejia (SP SF)
This is another value I like this late in the draft. The difference between Mejia’s ceiling and some of the arms taken immediately before him isn’t that large and while there might be more risk, I trust San Francisco to develop arms better than most other orgs.
9. Chicago NL - Eric Jagielo (3B NYY)
Jagielo (Jah-guy-low) never did it for me. Maybe it’s the Notre Dame on him, maybe it’s the limited power profile but either way I’m not on it. There’s nothing that pops with Jagielo and ultimately I think the lack of power does him in because he doesn’t have the hit tool to make up for it (like Moran potentially does). He should be able to beat up on the lower minors a bit, but I’d expect production to flag at the Double-A level.
10. Toronto - Alex “Chi Chi” Gonzalez (SP TEX)
A player I considered all the way back in the second round and a guy I like even more than Mejia at the moment. Gonzalez lacks the ceiling that Mejia, et. al. provide but I think he’s a sure fire major league. He won’t miss bats at an elite level but he shouldn’t have too many problems with free passes either, and he can move relatively quickly.
Last week I covered the first half of the second round of a 20-team dynasty league’s minor league draft. To check that out, click here, and within that link is a link to a previous iteration of this exercise that full explains the league settings/structure. From there it’s just links within links until it becomes a fractal.
The picks are numbered 11-20 but keep in mind these are second round selections
11. Boston - JP Crawford (SS PHI)
I think this pick looks really prescient by the end of the year. Crawford is a better real life player than fantasy player, but he can really hit, he can run enough and he’ll be playing up the middle. He’s not going to turn into Lindor or anything, but I think he can be a back of the top ten SS down the line, and while that upside isn’t anything to drool over, getting that value in the second round of a 20-team league is really nice.
Last week I covered the second half of the first round of a 20-team dynasty league’s minor league draft. To check that out, click here, and within that link is a link to a previous iteration of this exercise that full explains the league settings/structure. From there it’s just links within links until it becomes a fractal.
1. Milwaukee - Henry Owens (SP BOS)
I’ve gone back and forth on Owens as some see him as more of a back of the rotation type while others see him with number two starter potential. The middle is usually right in these cases and I think most would agree that a third starter is in the offing, but Owens certainly appears to be showing more of that number two profile than anything back end thus far.
Last week I covered the first half of the first round of a 20-team dynasty league’s minor league draft. To check that out, click here, and within that link is a link to a previous iteration of this exercise that full explains the league settings/structure. From there it’s just links within links until it becomes a fractal.
11. Boston - Austin Meadows (OF PIT)
The leagues preference for hitters over pitchers is starting to show through here, as Meadows gets popped before some other top arms. I’ve been less critical of Meadows than some others, especially in a fantasy context where his left field destination won’t hurt him as much, but even so, taking him ahead of arms like Stroman or Stewart was a bit of a surprise. In the end the result is a potential five category contributor, who is likely several years away.
Last year I recapped a three round dynasty league draft from a 20-team league that I’m in over at Fake Teams, and I’ll let you check out the link to get filled in on the depth of the league, what types of players are available and all of that. I received multiple requests to do the same this year, but it was pushed back due to TDGX coverage. Now that we’re free from those shackles, let’s tackle this once more:
We should note that each team here is named after a major league team but otherwise has no affiliation whatsoever.
1. Milwaukee - Kris Bryant (3B CHC)
This is where I would have gone too. Hindsight being what it is, we see that the Jose Abreu hype was justified at least for a month. That said, Bryant will be up by next year at the latest, plays a premium position (for now) and boasts prodigious power. Without the pre-season questions that plagued Abreu/Tanaka, this was the safest route and doesn’t lack ceiling either.
Every now and then (read: every week) during the offseason I struggle to come up with a topic to write about. These last few weeks have been especially trying with little to no action going on during hot stove season. It’s been less than inspiring to say the least. Then the realization came that I shouldn’t look to the major league GMs for inspiration, but to my fellow fantasy GMs. There’s a trade that went down in my 20-team dynasty league (of which I’ve written about before) that was of interest to me, and I think it could be of interest to you as well. Here’s the skinny:
Team A sends Jhonny Peralta
Team B sends Jason Grilli
We’ve now reached the midpoint of the 2013 season. When we last took a look at this list in mid-May, we were still dealing with relatively small sample sizes from both major leaguers and prospects, so there weren’t huge shake ups to the order. This time is a little different. The further into the season we get, the biggest the variance from the preseason list gets. Whether it’s current fantasy superstars like Chris Davis and Yasiel Puig or minor leaguers who have taken legitimate steps forward like Gregory Polanco, Tyler Glasnow and Maikel Franco, we know more now–and with more knowledge comes more trajectory to the risers. The fallers, however, are still subject to similar whims as the first run through. For the most part, only injuries led to precipitous falls in the Top 500. But there are exceptions to every rule, and Ike Davis and Huston Street found this out the hard way.
As with any list like this, it is a snapshot of value at this exact moment. This list would be different if I put it together today and released it tomorrow–that’s just the nature of the beast. However, if you have any questions about values going forward, you can always just ask me. I try to be as accessible as possible, either through Twitter, e-mail or the comments on this site. You all are the reason why I continue to put so much time and effort into this site. So thank you for reading and interacting. You guys are the best.
And now for a couple of disclaimers. First of all, this list is for fantasy purposes only. Also, this list does not include any 2013 draftees–if you want to see how I feel about that crop of prospects, you can check out the Top 40 that I did a few weeks back for more detail. After the signing deadline passes, they will all get incorporated into the list as a group. Finally, the list is meant for a reasonably deep mixed league (15-16 teams) with standard categories, positions and farm systems. The list for a 10-team league would skew a lot more towards the high-upside players and the list for a 20-team league would have a heavier focus on steady players who project to have longer periods of production.
Finally, with the new rankings comes a reminder. If you’re enjoying the rankings, and all of the other work here at The Dynasty Guru, I hope that you will make a donation to show your support for the site. As a non-subscription site, this is how you can help make sure we’re still around at this time next year, producing the best dynasty league content out there. You can do that through this link, or by clicking the “Donate” button on the top-right corner of the homepage. All donations are truly appreciated.
And now what you came here for, the updated Top 500 list — as of July 1, 2013:
You guys know me by now. Well, maybe. If you don’t, you will soon as I don’t necessarily have a ton of depth. For the people that do know me, they know that few things describe me better than the word “stubborn”. I was told from an early age I’d be a good lawyer because I was so argumentative, and I rarely gave in (as though that’s how one becomes a lawyer). What those things actually made me was a terrible student, but I digress. Knowing my penchant for sticking to my guns, it should come as no surprise that I heartily agreed with our Benevolent Dictator when he said that Tony Cingrani’s value will never be higher (go to quick hits). Granted he said that before Cingrani’s phenomenal performance against the Nationals, but I stand by it nonetheless. It holds as true today as it did then, which technically makes him (and me) wrong. But I’m not so willing to concede that we weren’t right either.