You guys know me by now. Well, maybe. If you don’t, you will soon as I don’t necessarily have a ton of depth. For the people that do know me, they know that few things describe me better than the word “stubborn”. I was told from an early age I’d be a good lawyer because I was so argumentative, and I rarely gave in (as though that’s how one becomes a lawyer). What those things actually made me was a terrible student, but I digress. Knowing my penchant for sticking to my guns, it should come as no surprise that I heartily agreed with our Benevolent Dictator when he said that Tony Cingrani’s value will never be higher (go to quick hits). Granted he said that before Cingrani’s phenomenal performance against the Nationals, but I stand by it nonetheless. It holds as true today as it did then, which technically makes him (and me) wrong. But I’m not so willing to concede that we weren’t right either.
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Craig’s Eleven Bold Predictions
It’s so close to Opening Day at this point, you can almost taste the Rangers beating the heck out of the Astros. And here at The Dynasty Guru, we’re celebrating the march to Opening Day by having every contributor come up with 11 bold predictions. Yes, we know that people do this at plenty of other sites, but goddamnit it’s fun. And we’re allowed to have some fun around here.
The biggest difference between our predictions and the predictions from “those other guys”? Ours go to 11.
And since this there’s really nothing else important that can be said to set up a bold predictions piece, this seems like an appropriate to end the introduction. Here are things which will happen in the future according to Craig Goldstein:
1. Wil Myers gets called up in April despite concerns that he’d be held out past the super-two deadline. He won’t set the world on fire, but a .265/.340/.470 slash line will help the Rays in a hotly contested division race with Toronto, before ultimately settling for a wild card spot.
The Top 50 Dynasty League First Basemen
Now we’re moving into a category with some meat to it – and not just because a number of these names could politely be referred to as “plus-sized”. We’re not exactly in a golden age for the 1B position in fantasy, but there’s still plenty of talent up towards the top. It’s when we get into the teens and beyond at the position where things are starting to get a little muddy. And after that, it just becomes one enormous wasteland. The great 1B we’re accustomed to seeing are getting older, and the next wave coming to take their place have not exactly worked out as planned so far. This isn’t likely to get much better over the coming years, as first base prospects are not exactly plentiful. So if there are going to be reinforcements on the way, they’ll have to start migrating from other positions on the diamond.
One other thing you’ll notice, which was much less of an issue at catcher, is that I’m only ranking players once positionally through out this entire series. That means, while guys like Buster Posey, Joe Mauer and Nick Swisher may have 1B eligibility, you’re unlikely to be using them there because their other eligibility is much more valuable. If you want to see how Posey stacks up against the rest of the 1B crowd, you can find that in the Top 500 that’s coming out at the end of the project. Also, I’ve included all DH-only players in with the 1B crowd because creating a DH-only list is pretty useless (until the National League adopts it).
And now your top 50 dynasty league first basemen, with commentary:
The Post In Which I Let Everyone Know I’m OK
Hello faithful readers. I just wanted to write a quick post letting everyone know that the reason there has been no new content up is simple: I have no power. As some of you may know, I live in New Jersey which was hit pretty hard by Sandy — though fortunately I do not live by the shore where the most damage was done. My family and I have relocated to a friend’s house, and will likely be bouncing around until power is restored at our house. Thankfully we’re all OK and there seems to be no major property damage.
My hope is that I’ll be able to start content back up this weekend, but whether that’s realistic or not, I’m not sure. The good news is that I am flush with ideas to write about, and once things are back to normal, there will be lots of great content here throughout the rest of the off-season.
For all of you who are impacted by the storm, stay as safe and as warm as possible. You’ll see me around these parts again soon.
-Bret
If Loving Brett Anderson is Wrong, I Don’t Want to be Right
Last night, Brett Anderson started a major league game for the first time in 14 months and 16 days. We know the background — Anderson saw Tommy John surgery interrupt a burgeoning career at the age of 23 in June of 2011. I watched most of this game last night, as I really wanted to see how Anderson was going to look in his return. The results were overwhelmingly positive as he threw 7 IP allowing only 1 ER, 4 H (none of the extra-base persuasion) and striking out 4. Yes, it was a very good match-up against the Twins in Oakland, but there were two additional things about his start which were extremely important.
You know the old adage that control is the last thing come back after a pitcher undergoes Tommy John surgery. Anderson looks like he’s going to try to be the exception to this rule. In his career, Anderson has had a very stingy walk rate of 2.2 BB/9 in his career — and last night he not only had no walks, but he threw 62 of his 86 pitches for strikes against the Twins. This is good for the obvious reason, but also with Anderson likely being monitored pretty carefully from a pitch count perspective for the rest of this season, this type of control will allow him to go deeper into games, potentially increasing his chances of getting wins. If he had only made it through 5 innings last night, he would not have gotten the win — but going 7 got it done.
The other aspect to last night’s start which was amazing is that Anderson faced 22 hitters (yes, 22 — he had a triple play turned behind him and he picked off Josh Willingham) and he allowed ZERO fly balls. Anderson has always been a ground ball pitcher, but this kind of ratio is insane. Could it be partially due to pitch selection? It’s clearly a small sample, but Anderson relied more heavily on his 2-seamer and curveball than he historically has, while easing off his 4-seamer and his slider. Could be something interesting to keep an eye on as he finishes out this season.
Anderson is a guy I’ve been stashing everywhere this season because I love his skill set. If you’ve seen my stuff at Roto Hardball and Fake Teams, you’ve seen me talk about the holy trinity of pitching and Anderson fits the bill with a career 7.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 54% ground ball rate. This means he can limit the downside risk while he’s on the mound. Yes, he will also be helped by pitching half his games in the cavernous Coliseum, but not nearly in the same way as a fly ball machine like Tommy Milone. You should feel confident starting Anderson the rest of the way both at home and on the road — starting Monday in Cleveland. If he’s unowned in your league, no matter the size, go grab him. Now.
