Category Archives: Prospect Talk

Patting My Back: Pat Corbin And Shelby Miller

by Ben Carsley

My last week on TDG was none to kind to the ego.

In my weekly column, I made the world aware of an embarrassing comparison I made between Jesus Montero and a future Hall of Famer, then questioned the future of a man I once believed to be among the best prospects in baseball.

In our second installment of A Podcast For Your Eyes, I was forced to talk about Montero, Eric Hosmer and Will Middlebrooks: three former prospect sweethearts who are crushing more dreams than fastball these days.

And finally, in the waning moments of PFYE, The Sequel, I betrayed my better self by revealing to the world that I had succumbed to the affordable evil that is Yellowtail wine.

I need to get back on my game, and what better way to do so than to spill 600 words on how right I was on two pitchers carving up the National League as we speak?

This week, no panic button shall be pushed. This week, my back shall be patted. Continue reading →

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Rafael De Paula: A True Coming of Age Story

by The Dynasty Guru

When I released my Updated Top 500 Dynasty League Ranks last week, there were a few players with noticeable jumps, including a bunch of new players on the list. Of those Top 500 newbies, the prospect with the highest debut was Yankees RHP Rafael De Paula at #359. In fact, he was 35 spots higher than the next best debut, potential future teammate, Jose Ramirez. This may seem like a rather large jump for a prospect after just one quarter of the season, but then again, there aren’t too many other prospects like Rafael De Paula.

De Paula has been a name that’s been well known among those who cover international prospects for almost five years now. In the summer of 2008, then known as 16-year old Rafael De Paula Figueroa, he did not show enough in workouts to get a contract to his liking. However, when his velocity shot up from the high-80′s to the mid-90′s by early 2009, teams came knocking in droves. Yet still, no contract. In May 2009, it was reported by Baseball America, that the 17-year old Figueroa had been suspended for one year by Major League Baseball for providing a false identity. He re-emerged in 2010 as the now 19-year old Jose Rafael De Paula, but with the same electric fastball that drew scouts to him the prior year.

Continue reading →

Prospect Talk: Deep Diving

by Craig Goldstein

Back End

Miguel Almonte – SP – Kansas City Royals

Almonte has been the recipient of some buzz recently, with Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus reiterating that he’d prefer the 20-year old to former first round pick Kyle Zimmer recently. Almonte goes after hitters with a plus fastball. It arrives in the low to mid 90s but hitters don’t seem to pick it up all that well. The fastball is good, but the change up is Almonte’s bread and butter, with good separation from the fastball, arm speed and movement. He’ll throw both a slider and a curve, but neither pitch has declared itself the go-to breaking ball just yet. He’s got lots of development left in front of him, but he’s an exciting arm.

Continue reading →

Pressing The Panic Button: Jesus Montero

by Ben Carsley

When I was a younger man, newly enthused by the idea of scouting and analyzing prospects, I loved few things more than player comparisons.

It’s a trap that many of us – even the most seasoned pundits – fall into on occasion, and you read about them all the time. Byron Buxton is the next Andrew McCutchen. Jose Iglesias is the new Rey Ordonez. Any catcher who can’t really catch but can hit is Mike Napoli. Anyone with plus-plus control is Greg Maddux.

I think comparisons deserve a bit more leniency when it comes to Fantasy prospect talk, since what we’re really talking about is just an end stat line. So maybe Miguel Sano is nothing like Giancarlo Stanton, but if the numbers look the same at season’s end, the comp is a good one. Robbie Erlin isn’t going to be as good as Mark Buehrle, but if his stats play up in Petco and the numbers match up, you’re justified in invoking the name.

But there is one link between player and prospect I made several years ago that I had hoped would stay hidden in dark corners of the Internet forever. One so glaringly foolish that I am cringing a bit as I write this now. Yet the only way to improve oneself is through self-reflection and honesty, and so I shall share my secret with the TDG family now.

I compared Jesus Montero to Frank Thomas. Continue reading →

Nolan Arenado And The Middle Ground

by Ben Carsley

Nolan Arenado was overhyped headed into the 2012 season.

The then-20 year old was coming off a year where he hit .298/.349/.487 in High-A, mashing 20 homers and an eye-popping 122 RBI,  and finishing with a wRC+ of 108. Rumors began to surface that he’d break camp with the MLB team, eschewing the upper minors all together, and some had him pegged as a future cornerstone of the Rockies offense.

Baseball America ranked him as the No. 42 prospect in the game before 2012. Baseball Prospectus ranked him aggressively at No. 20. Keith Law wasn’t far behind at No. 26, while John Sickles sat poised as the most optimistic, ranking Arenado as high as No. 13 overall.

As we know now, Arenado did not live up to the unreasonable expectations heaped upon him by Interweb analysts. Not only did he fail to make the big league club out of spring training, but he failed to make it at any point during the 2012 season. We heard rumors of character issues and a lack of maturity. And after what many perceived to be a lackluster 2012 campaign, Arenado plummeted down Top 100 lists this season.

That would all be well and good, except for one pretty basic observation: Arenado’s 2012 season was good. In fact, by advanced metrics it was a little better than his celebrated 2011 campaign. Continue reading →

With My Own Eyes: Portland vs Trenton

by The Dynasty Guru

It’s always fun when you can have another first in life, and Friday night I had a pretty exciting one–it was the first time I went to a professional baseball game with a press pass. With the assistance of the almighty Joe Hamrahi and my new friends at the Trenton Thunder, I had a perfect seat right behind home plate, which allowed me to do fun things like take some video (which I’ve attached at the end of the post) from a nice angle.

And fortunately for me, I got to see a number of players who matter for dynasty leagues up close and personally. So, while I’m not a scout, the more baseball I watch, the more little things I pick up. And the more little things I pick up, the better informed I become about the game as a whole. It’s the same as with anything else in life–repetition breeds knowledge. So with the opportunity to see Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes, Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott and Nik Turley, I arrived at the ballpark excited for what would excite me. And as baseball would have it, the players who would excite me most were not even on that brief list.

Unfortunately, the biggest reason for this was that Xander Bogaerts was held out of the starting lineup, for reasons unknown. As he was the biggest reason I made the 75 minute drive down to Trenton, it was quite a bummer when I first discovered that. I’m sure if he were on the field, I’d be raving about him for pages and pages and pages, so consider yourselves all lucky that i didn’t. However, these were some players who I saw and how much attention they are worth paying in dynasty leagues:

Continue reading →

Prospect Talk: Deep Diving

by Craig Goldstein

As a refresher on what this here column is all about, here’s the intro from last week:

By far the most requested topic we received in the comments of our “Podcast For Your Eyes” as well as on Twitter is; back-end or deeper prospects that will jump up rankings. While I think this is a great idea for a future PFYE, I thought I’d allow a peek at my personal list of guys with some small write-ups. These are not in depth scouting reports or anything like that, but just reasons to like them and/or reasons to be cautious. I’ve broken them into “Back End” and “Off The Charts” types. Back enders (settle down) are guys that are either on one or two top 100 or 150 lists or even all of them but further down the rankings. They may not even be on any, but are well known in the public consciousness as “deep guys”. The off the charters are guys that are even further down than that. I’m not going to promise to tell you a name you don’t know in this section because I’ve broken too many promises already. Never again. I’m hoping this can be a recurring feature here as the season goes on and we continue to discover more and more pop-up guys.

This is also an opportunity for me to tell you guys to get familiar with Beyond The Boxscore’s super useful Consensus Top 190 Prospects, as I’m going to use it as a reference point. I will also be referencing Bret’s top prospect rankings when applicable.

Back End

Mauricio Cabrera – SP – Atlanta Braves

So Cabrera didn’t make the top 190 either but given his #4 ranking on Baseball Prospectus’ Atlanta Top 10, and #6 on Baseball America’s, he’s enough of a known quantity that he resides in this section. Cabrera draws attention for his fastball, which has elite velocity. He sits in the low to mid 90s with hit, but can hit triple digits from time to time. The arm is very loose, and at 6’2/180 lbs, Cabrera has a projectable frame. He has feel for the change up. It’s erratic now, but shows the potential to be an above-average pitch in time. He has the chance for an average breaking ball, which would give him three average or better pitches. It’s not all roses though, as with any young pitcher, Cabrera will need to refine his command and develop his arsenal. Lo-A will be a good challenge for him this year, and I am predicting some top 100 placements by next season.

Continue reading →

Early Injuries To Three Major Prospects

by Ben Carsley

As though forecasting how a large collection of minor leaguers will translate their skills into Fantasy production is not difficult enough, we must deal with the fickle mistress known as “injury” as well. The past week provided a solemn reminder of the powers of such influence, as three Top 150 prospects received news ranging from “that’s not good,” to “damn, that’s really not good” to “oh crap, that’s terrible.”

How should such players be valued by the Fantasy community now, both in 2013 and the years ahead? Such are the questions I have taken upon myself to answer.

And before we begin – no I am not a doctor. Any medical observations I dive into below are just those – observations. Comments pointing this out would be, at best, redundant. Don’t be that guy, guy.

Travis d’Arnaud (C, NYM)

Ok, so when is it ok to label d’Arnaud as injury prone? Yes, I’m aware that none of his injuries are chronic. In 2010, he missed time with bulging discs. In 2012, he tore his PCL. Now he’s fractured his left foot after following a ball off of said limb in a game early last week.

Here is a list of total games d’Arnaud has played in every season since he hit A-ball: 64, 126, 71, 114, 67. Yes, catchers typically play in fewer games than do their offensive counterparts at other positions, but this is still not a good sign. D’Arnaud has averaged just 80.5 games played per season throughout his minor league career. Continue reading →

Prospect Talk: Deep Diving

by Craig Goldstein

By far the most requested topic we received in the comments of our “Podcast For Your Eyes” as well as on Twitter is; back-end or deeper prospects that will jump up rankings. While I think this is a great idea for a future PFYE, I thought I’d allow a peek at my personal list of guys with some small write-ups. These are not in depth scouting reports or anything like that, but just reasons to like them and/or reasons to be cautious. I’ve broken them into “Back End” and “Off The Charts” types. Back enders (settle down) are guys that are either on one or two top 100 or 150 lists or even all of them but further down the rankings. They may not even be on any, but are well known in the public consciousness as “deep guys”. The off the charters are guys that are even further down than that. I’m not going to promise to tell you a name you don’t know in this section because I’ve broken too many promises already. Never again. I’m hoping this can be a recurring feature here as the season goes on and we continue to discover more and more pop-up guys.

Back End

Joe Ross – SP – San Diego Padres

Let’s get Ross out of the way. He’s my spirit animal this season. Over at Fake Teams, I brought him up WAY too early in the off-season SP Rankings, and Bret kept booting him on down the collective list. I think Ross makes him look foolish by season’s end, even if was probably the right move at the time. I’ve written about Ross before, in fairly great depth. Short case: He’s got incredible athleticism, an easy fastball and multiple pitches to work with. There’s now ability and projection. Now, we need that projection to pan out, but I’m optimistic that happens. He’s gotten off to a fast start in 2013, with 12 strikeouts against two walks over 10 innings, with the stuff to back it up.

Continue reading →

The No. 1 Prospect For 2014 Is …

by Ben Carsley

In preparation for our highly successful and critically acclaimed A Podcast For Your Eyes debut last week, our Benevolent Dictator Bret Goodwin asked Craig and myself to create individual Top 10 lists for 2014.

While I was initially glad to accept my assignment simply because I find these things enjoyable, I was surprised to find that it’s actually a pretty useful exercise, too. If you want to really put a prospect under a microscope and truly weight his upside, what better way than to ask yourself if you could ever see that man topping a list of all players in the minors?

I’ve carried that idea to its logical conclusion here, and am bringing you eight players I think could rank No. 1 over all on Top 100 or 101 or 150 lists before the 2014 season. The first four names might make you say “duh,” but reasoning is provided. The following four might surprise you, and reasoning is provided here as well. My Top 150 rankings from my 2013 list are in parentheses.

The Frontrunners

Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS (3)

I’m not sure if you guys know this, but I’m actually sort of high on Bogaerts. All he did last season was decide to post a wRC+ of 144 in High-A and of 159 in Double-A as a 19-year-old, all while convincing many that he can at least begin his career at shortstop. That’s, like, really good. I don’t think he sees a ton of MLB this season because there are two capable players head of him in Stephen Drew and Jose Iglesias, and if he does switch positions he’ll need time to adjust as well. But if Bogaerts is still prospect eligible next season and he still profiles as a shortstop, he’s almost guaranteed to top my list. Continue reading →