Let’s get right to it. We are going to examine some hitters who have performed much better than expected so far this year.
Mike Moustakas, Royals — .322 AVG, 5 HRs, 28 Runs, 16 RBI, 1 Steal
A month ago I talked about Moustakas HERE. I told you to avoid him like the plague despite his hot start. He has not been as bad as I thought he would be, but he has not been as good in May as he was in April. In April he was awesome, putting up a .356/.420/.522 slash line for a .942 OPS. In May he has fallen off to a .286/.330/.440 slash for a .770 OPS. That is still pretty good, but remember this is a guy with a career .686 OPS, and that includes his excellent 2015 stats. Moustakas’ BABIP this year is .349, which is 81 points higher than his career BABIP. That is a very strong sign that he has been quite lucky, especially when you consider his batted ball profile is less impressive than it usually is. The narrative we hear on TV is that he has improved his approach by hitting the ball to the opposite field to beat the shift. That is true because his Oppo% is 35% this year compared to his career 23%. However his Soft, Medium and Hard hit percentages are exactly the same as his career. In fact he hit the ball much harder last year than he is this year. That is a strong sign that his improved BABIP is unsupported by anything in his batted ball profile that would make you think his luck is going to continue. Verdict: Sell. Cash him in while you can still get something for a proven below average hitter.
One of the hardest things to do (at least for me) in a dynasty league is to be patient, especially with struggling prospects. When a shiny new breakout prospect comes along, it’s easier in many cases to cut bait with a prospect who’s having a ‘down’ year to make room for the new helium prospect. Many times this is the incorrect long term decision and can set your team back if you cut bait too quickly. It’s an extremely frustrating feeling to see somebody snatch up your discarded prospect and see them reap the rewards when the prospect regains the form that attracted you to them in the first place. Sometimes it ends up being a good value play if you can spin the new prospect into something beneficial and you’re able circle back and pick up the old prospect if he is still available, so it can be a delicate situation. Let’s take a look at a few prospects who once graced various top-100 lists that saw their collective shine fade away over the last season or two and see if their 2015 performances warrant reconsideration.
Phil Ervin – CF, Cincinnati Reds (Pre-2014 prospect ranking #63, Baseball Prospectus)
What went wrong in 2014: Ervin saw his OPS fall from .989 in his first taste of pro ball in 2013 to .680 in 2014, his first full season in the Midwest League. Ervin clubbed nine home runs and swiped 14 bags in his 200 plate appearances in his draft year of 2013, but was only able to see seven balls leave the yard in 561 Midwest League plate appearances to go with 30 steals over the course of the year.
Shortstop Trevor Story has been one of the most enigmatic prospects over the last few seasons and the start of his 2015 season has served as yet another reason to not give up on a talented prospect too quickly in a dynasty league because of a ‘down’ season or an extended period of struggling. You probably are already familiar with the trials and tribulations that have played out over the last few seasons for Story. After being selected 45th in the 2011 draft, he burst on the scene at Low-A Asheville in 2012, posting a .872 OPS powered by 18 home runs and 15 steals. Dynasty owners were already licking their collective chops picturing the next up-the-middle fantasy monster invading Coors Field soon. Then 2013 happened. Continue reading
There is a surprisingly large group of ace pitchers who turned in dismal performances in April. These are guys whose fantasy owners were counting on them to anchor their rotations. The question now is if we should pounce on these guys while their owners are panicking or if we should steer clear of a sinking ship.
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals — 4.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 2-2 Record, 30 Strikeouts in 29 innings
Strasburg came into the season as a consensus top 5 pitcher in baseball but is currently ranked as the #1028 overall player in Yahoo 5×5 leagues, which means he has returned negative value to his fantasy owners and ranks below pitchers who have not even played yet this year. His WHIP is awful, but it is mostly due to a freakishly high .402 BABIP. He has allowed only 8 walks and one measly home run this year. His 9.20 K/9 is slightly lower than his career 10.29 rate, but it is still very good. His walk rate is right at his career average as well. Strasburg has also been unlucky with his 64.4% Strand Rate that is well below the 72% league average. The bottom line is that Strasburg has pitched as a nearly-elite pitcher this year despite his poor results. Expect him to be one of the best pitchers in baseball over the rest of the season. Verdict: Go Get Him! Strong buy low target.
Corey Kluber, Indians — 4.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 0-3 Record, 36 Strikeouts in 34 innings Continue reading
Last week I looked at some hot starting pitchers. This week we examine some unexpectedly hot hitters. One key to success in fantasy leagues is to quickly identify the true breakout players early in the season and separate them from the fakeout players — those whose success is a mirage. All of the players below are currently ranked among the top 40 hitters in 5×5 leagues in the early part of the season. None of them were ranked in the top 100 hitters in preseason lists, most of them way were not in the top 200 either. Let’s find out if these guys are real gold or fool’s gold.
Devon Travis, Blue Jays — .385 AVG, 4 HRs, 11 Runs, 15 RBI, 1 Steal
Obtained from the Tigers over the winter, Travis has taken over as the Blue Jays starting second baseman. He spent all of last season in Double-A and skipped Triple-A entirely. Coming into this season Travis did not make any of the Top 100 prospect lists, but did make some of the “players to watch” lists. Travis is only five feet nine inches tall, so the power is a surprise. He did hit 18 home runs in the low minors in 2013. Travis is a promising young player but is unlikely to continue hitting anywhere near as well as he has so far this year. Verdict: Breakout. Good solid fantasy-worthy middle infielder, but not a star. Projects for .280 AVG, 15 homers, 80 Runs, 70 RBI, 15 steals.
Lorenzo Cain, Royals — .375 AVG, 2 HRs 13 Runs, 12 RBI, 5 Steals
Let’s take a look at a few pitchers who may be available in your league who are off to hot starts. One key to success in fantasy leagues is to quickly identify the true breakout players early in the season, and separating them from the fakeout players — those whose success is a mirage. Last season saw unexpected breakouts from Matt Shoemaker, Collin McHugh and Jacob deGrom. The owners who snared them received a very nice boost to their championship hopes, whereas those owners who grabbed Dan Haren, Aaron Harang or Martin Perez after their hot starts ended up getting burned. So what we need to do is determine whether each of these pitchers is likely to continue their success.
Odrisamer Despaigne, Padres — 1 Win, 0.77 ERA, 0.34 WHIP, 4 Ks in 11.2 innings.
The 28 year old Cuban defector started the season in the minors but was promoted after Ian Kennedy went down with an injury. Despaigne pitched 96 innings for the Padres last year and put up a tidy 3.36 ERA. That is the good news. The bad news is his xFIP was 4.01, and xFIP is a much better predictor of future ERA than previous ERA is. Despaigne also exhibits a very low strikeout rate 5.75 K/9 for his career. That is a problem for two reasons. The first is that pitchers with strikeout rates that low are incredibly unlikely to put up good ERAs for long. The second reason is that strikeouts are a key fantasy scoring category and Despaigne is not going to help you there. Despaigne does not have anything close to overpowering stuff. He is a smoke-and-mirrors junkballer similar to Livan Hernandez or Bronson Arroyo. Despaigne plays half his games in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark and the Padres have made huge upgrades to their offense, two factors that will help Despaigne. Verdict: Fakeout. Won’t be terrible but should not be targeted for your team. Decent injury replacement. Can be used as a streamer in two-start weeks at home.
Nick Martinez, Rangers — 2 Wins, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6 Ks in 14 innings. Continue reading
Much has been made about the fact that Chicago Cubs 2014 first round draft pick Kyle Schwarber might not stick behind the plate and could ultimately be moved to outfield full time. How is this going to affect the slugger’s fantasy value? Should we move him down the rankings if he is not a catcher? Is it better for us as fantasy team owners for Schwarber to remain a catcher or move to the outfield? Let’s keep in mind that there have been a lot of players who were catchers as amateurs who “failed” to remain at catcher through their minor league years. Bryce Harper, Pablo Sandoval, Joey Votto, Dale Murphy, Craig Biggio and many others began their careers as catchers and went on to stardom at other positions. The bottom line is that if a guy can hit it doesn’t matter too much what position he plays. Positional scarcity should not be a major issue when ranking prospects.
We have all heard the case for positional scarcity and how it affects a player’s fantasy value. If you have two players who both have the exact same statistics, the one who plays the rarer position is a lot more valuable. Clearly, catcher is a scarce position and there are only a small handful of legitimate hitters who wear the mask. If you are starting Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy at catcher then you will have a large advantage over teams starting Jason Castro or Miguel Montero.
Just How Scarce are They?
That is all true without question, but in terms of fantasy baseball that is often overblown. Continue reading